Ben Burns
NHL
OTTAWA
Game: Ottawa Senators vs. Florida Panthers Game Time: 12/5/2007 7:35:00 PM Prediction: Ottawa Senators Reason: I'm laying the price with OTTAWA. This should be the perfect opponent for the Senators to snap their skid against. The Panthers are one of the weaker teams in the league, are playing poorly right now and the Senators have always dominated them. While the Sens average 3.2 goals per game, the Panthers average just 2.6. The Senators have won five straight against Florida by a combined 24-7 score, and are 19-5-1 in the series since the start of the 2000-01 season. While they lost (in a shootout) again last night, the Sens did rally from a 2-goal deficit to salvage a point. I feel that we're getting a very reasonable price with the much stronger team and I look for the Sens to build off last night's performance by continuing their domination in this series. *Eastern Conf. GOW
NBA
UNDER Celtics/76ers (179 or better)
Game: Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game Time: 12/5/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Boston and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. This number is low for a good reason. The 76ers had a similar over/under line for their last game, here vs. Atlanta. While the Hawks defense isn't nearly as good as the Boston defense they'll see tonight, the 76ers still managed only 79 points. Naturally, that game (88-79) fell below the number by double-digits. That brought the UNDER to 11-5 their last 16 games and 7-2 in nine home games for the season. Note that the 76ers, who have scored less than 80 points four times now, have also seen the UNDER go 5-1 in six games against teams which score 99 or more points per game. Its true that the Celtics have played lower-scoring games at Boston than they have on the road. However, they brought that same type of defensive intensity in their most recent road game, holding the Heat to just 85 points. Note that Miami had scored 110 in its previous games after scoring 99 and 98 vs. Houston and Orlando before that. Over their last three games the Celtics have now allowed an average of just 71.3 points! All three games fell below the total which brings the UNDER to 10-5-1 in their 16 games for the season. The Celtics know that the 76ers are struggling to score right now and they'll be looking to be the latest team to shut them down. These teams combined for only 170 points here last April, bringing the UNDER to 2-0 in the two meetings at the Wachovia Center last season. I'm expecting another low-scoring affair which stays below the number. *Blue Chip
NEW ORLEANS (-1 or better)
Game: Detroit Pistons vs. New Orleans Hornets Game Time: 12/5/2007 8:05:00 PM Prediction: New Orleans Hornets Reason: I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. The situation favors the home team. In addition to playing on their home floor, the Hornets are well rested as they haven't played since the first day of the month. Note that they beat the Mavericks in that game, winning outright as three point underdogs. Conversely, the Pistons come off a game last night and will already be playing their fourth game through the first five days of December. Granted, those were all easy victories which allowed the starters to rest in the fourth quarter. However, I still believe that playing four games in five nights will take a toll. The Pistons, who have a "revenge" game vs. the Bulls on deck, haven't fared well against teams from the Western conference this season. In fact, they're just 2-5 ATS (3-4 SU) against teams from the West thus far. The Hornets have fared well as underdogs of this size as we find them at 8-4 ATS the last 12 times they were listed as home underdogs (or pick'em) of three points or less. They were beaten by the Pistons here last season. However, the Hornets know they can beat this team as, prior to that home loss, they had upset the Pistons at Detroit. Note that star point guard Chris Paul had 20 points and 13 assists in the win but that he didn't play in the loss. Paul will play tonight and he's currently at the top of his game. Indeed, Paul had 33 points, 12 assists, nine rebounds and three steals in the win over the Mavs. Paul is now averaging 28 points, nine rebounds, nine assists and three steals while making all 20 of his free-throw attempts over his last three games. Peja Stoajakovic has been hitting clutch 3-pointers and ranks second in the leauge in number of three-pointers made. As he said of the win over the Mavs: We can use this game to build and get better." Look for them to do just that tonight as they hand the Pistons a rare loss. *Situational GOM
NCAA BB
WASHINGTON STATE (pick'em or better)
Game: Washington St. vs. Gonzaga Game Time: 12/5/2007 11:00:00 PM Prediction: Washington St. Reason: I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON STATE. Both teams have excellent records and both have national rankings. However, the Cougars are currently better in both categories and I believe that they're currently the better team. The Cougars went 26-8 last season and they returned four of five starters. They've got three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup, all of whom average at least 8.7 points. While averaging a respectable 72 points per game on offense, the experienced Cougars have been dominating on defense, allowing a mere 52.1 points per game, among the fewest in the nation. While they do have some impressive young talent, the Bulldogs, who continue to play without 6-foot-11 junior forward Josh Heytvelt, are a much less experienced team than the Cougars and they're allowing an extra 10 points per game (62.5) more. While the Cougars are 9-5 ATS their last 14 December games, the Bulldogs are just 5-10 ATS in December during the same stretch. It was exactly one year ago that the (+2.5) Cougars defeated the Bulldogs (77-67) for the first time in recent memory. This year's team is even better and I look for them to score the minor upset for the second straight year, handing the Zags a rare home loss.
NHL
OTTAWA
Game: Ottawa Senators vs. Florida Panthers Game Time: 12/5/2007 7:35:00 PM Prediction: Ottawa Senators Reason: I'm laying the price with OTTAWA. This should be the perfect opponent for the Senators to snap their skid against. The Panthers are one of the weaker teams in the league, are playing poorly right now and the Senators have always dominated them. While the Sens average 3.2 goals per game, the Panthers average just 2.6. The Senators have won five straight against Florida by a combined 24-7 score, and are 19-5-1 in the series since the start of the 2000-01 season. While they lost (in a shootout) again last night, the Sens did rally from a 2-goal deficit to salvage a point. I feel that we're getting a very reasonable price with the much stronger team and I look for the Sens to build off last night's performance by continuing their domination in this series. *Eastern Conf. GOW
NBA
UNDER Celtics/76ers (179 or better)
Game: Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game Time: 12/5/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Boston and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. This number is low for a good reason. The 76ers had a similar over/under line for their last game, here vs. Atlanta. While the Hawks defense isn't nearly as good as the Boston defense they'll see tonight, the 76ers still managed only 79 points. Naturally, that game (88-79) fell below the number by double-digits. That brought the UNDER to 11-5 their last 16 games and 7-2 in nine home games for the season. Note that the 76ers, who have scored less than 80 points four times now, have also seen the UNDER go 5-1 in six games against teams which score 99 or more points per game. Its true that the Celtics have played lower-scoring games at Boston than they have on the road. However, they brought that same type of defensive intensity in their most recent road game, holding the Heat to just 85 points. Note that Miami had scored 110 in its previous games after scoring 99 and 98 vs. Houston and Orlando before that. Over their last three games the Celtics have now allowed an average of just 71.3 points! All three games fell below the total which brings the UNDER to 10-5-1 in their 16 games for the season. The Celtics know that the 76ers are struggling to score right now and they'll be looking to be the latest team to shut them down. These teams combined for only 170 points here last April, bringing the UNDER to 2-0 in the two meetings at the Wachovia Center last season. I'm expecting another low-scoring affair which stays below the number. *Blue Chip
NEW ORLEANS (-1 or better)
Game: Detroit Pistons vs. New Orleans Hornets Game Time: 12/5/2007 8:05:00 PM Prediction: New Orleans Hornets Reason: I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. The situation favors the home team. In addition to playing on their home floor, the Hornets are well rested as they haven't played since the first day of the month. Note that they beat the Mavericks in that game, winning outright as three point underdogs. Conversely, the Pistons come off a game last night and will already be playing their fourth game through the first five days of December. Granted, those were all easy victories which allowed the starters to rest in the fourth quarter. However, I still believe that playing four games in five nights will take a toll. The Pistons, who have a "revenge" game vs. the Bulls on deck, haven't fared well against teams from the Western conference this season. In fact, they're just 2-5 ATS (3-4 SU) against teams from the West thus far. The Hornets have fared well as underdogs of this size as we find them at 8-4 ATS the last 12 times they were listed as home underdogs (or pick'em) of three points or less. They were beaten by the Pistons here last season. However, the Hornets know they can beat this team as, prior to that home loss, they had upset the Pistons at Detroit. Note that star point guard Chris Paul had 20 points and 13 assists in the win but that he didn't play in the loss. Paul will play tonight and he's currently at the top of his game. Indeed, Paul had 33 points, 12 assists, nine rebounds and three steals in the win over the Mavs. Paul is now averaging 28 points, nine rebounds, nine assists and three steals while making all 20 of his free-throw attempts over his last three games. Peja Stoajakovic has been hitting clutch 3-pointers and ranks second in the leauge in number of three-pointers made. As he said of the win over the Mavs: We can use this game to build and get better." Look for them to do just that tonight as they hand the Pistons a rare loss. *Situational GOM
NCAA BB
WASHINGTON STATE (pick'em or better)
Game: Washington St. vs. Gonzaga Game Time: 12/5/2007 11:00:00 PM Prediction: Washington St. Reason: I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON STATE. Both teams have excellent records and both have national rankings. However, the Cougars are currently better in both categories and I believe that they're currently the better team. The Cougars went 26-8 last season and they returned four of five starters. They've got three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup, all of whom average at least 8.7 points. While averaging a respectable 72 points per game on offense, the experienced Cougars have been dominating on defense, allowing a mere 52.1 points per game, among the fewest in the nation. While they do have some impressive young talent, the Bulldogs, who continue to play without 6-foot-11 junior forward Josh Heytvelt, are a much less experienced team than the Cougars and they're allowing an extra 10 points per game (62.5) more. While the Cougars are 9-5 ATS their last 14 December games, the Bulldogs are just 5-10 ATS in December during the same stretch. It was exactly one year ago that the (+2.5) Cougars defeated the Bulldogs (77-67) for the first time in recent memory. This year's team is even better and I look for them to score the minor upset for the second straight year, handing the Zags a rare home loss.
