The thought on the over in the Italian game is that last time they played in Italy it was a 4-3 Italian win. Italians can be painfully cautious but Belarus tend to attack. With nothing left to lose, I see no reason why they won't go for some goals at home. Italians are hungry for a win after drawing Scotland. Time for them to put these lower teams away. Hoping for a 3-1 type of game.
Sweden I love. They need a win to keep pace and at first look Hungary look strong with still a chance to qualify, 4 wins and a very decent goal ratio. However, when you look at their performance and take out their score lines against the 2 awful bottom feeders (Their 4 victories) - you see that they have a terrible record against the better teams and a goal differential of 1 scored, 10 given up! (Including a 3-0 thrasing in Sweden). Do the same thing for Sweden and you see a much different story - a 9 to 1 goal advantage against the better teams in the bracket. I hate the fact that Hungary gets 2 games at home and Sweden has to make the trip down on a short rest, but they are more talented, playing better and need the win.
Also like England as they have been practicing in a more aggresive 4-3-3 formation. Coach got to test his defensive scheme this weekend. It worked for them. Now time to let the dogs run. They are in a good position and I think they put on a show against a woeful N Ireland club. Should be ugly.
Finally Serbia - Spain. Spain's been struggling mightly to find the goal and Serbia is yet to concede one. Big game for Serbia, bigger for Spain. Serbia would be more than happy w/a draw. They will clamp down and make things rough for Spain. Liking the under, i think Spain will pull it out or a possible 0-0 draw.
My book isn't putting up handicap lines until tomorrow AM, so I will wait till then to figure out my wagers but those are some of the things I am thinking.
