- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
ATS: 86-58-4 (+29.2)
OU: 52-45-1 (+2.3)
ML dogs: 2-5 (+1.1)
Warriors vs. Grizzlies
Memphis is on the third game in a road trip and their fourth game in six days. After this game, they will have one day off and then face their division opponent the Spurs at home. The Grizzlies playing as a road dog after a game where they scored 10 or more points than expected are 5-16 SU (-7.7) and 8-13 ATS since the 2009 season.
The Warriors are off a back to back series with the Clippers, in which they were blown out in their last game. Since the 2009 season, the Warriors after a 10 or more point loss as a home favorite are 16-5 SU (+9.6 ppg) and 14-6 ATS.
The difference for the Warriors this year is their elevated defense, and I believe it was probably stressed all weak after their poor outing against the Clippers. After allowing an opponent to shoot at least 50% from the field in a loss, the Warriors in their next game when playing as a home favorite vs. a conference opponent are 7-0 SU (+13.9 ppg) and ATS. The Warriors rank third in the league in rebounding differential and fourth in average opponents? field-goal percentage (42.9%). They were sloppy vs. the Clippers.
?You can?t just wake up and be an elite defensive team. But the more you preach it, the more you hear that message, it shows in how we practice in training camp, how we watch film and study the game,? said point guard Stephen Curry, who has become a surprising pest on defence. ?All that comes into the process of becoming a better team. We still have more ways we can improve. But we are a hundred times better defensively than we were last year, and that?s why our record reflects that. We just have to stick to it.?
Golden State is 20-2 SU (+7.3) and 18-4 ATS when outrebounding an opponent this season, and while they will have a tough matchup vs. Memphis is this area, their rest and drive may put them ahead in this category tonight. The Warriors are 17-3 SU (+6.2) and 16-4 ATS this season when holding opponents below 45% from the field. The Grizzlies average 43.9%, and hopefully are losing some of their legs by this game. A year after having the fourth-worst defense in the league, Golden State is now 9th in the league (based of points per 100 possessions).
David Lee twitter after the Clippers loss: ?Bad outing by our squad but our heads are up and we will bounce back next game, win as a team lose as a team!? The Warriors are 14-2 SU (+13.3) and 13-3 ATS since the 2009 season as a home favorite after a road loss.
Lakers vs. Spurs
The Spurs playing an isolated home game after a road loss are 11-2 (+11.2) and 10-3 ATS. When playing as a home favorite in a game after being outscored in the paint they are 15-0 SU (+10.9) (average line -8.7) in their last fifteen. These numbers really show the strength of this franchise. Since 2010, these numbers are 11-1 SU (+13.5) and 9-3 ATS.
The Lakers are struggling with multiple injuries and will have nothing to stop the Spurs in the paint tonight. The Spurs should be able to control the glass as well, with the Lakers on a back to back and missing their bigs. As a home favorite, the Spurs are 25-2 SU (+17.6) and 23-4 ATS (average line -9.4) in their last 27 when controlling these categories. The Lakers are coming off a tiring game in which both teams were up and down the floor last night. Should we reference Kobe again? OK....
"Cause we're old as s---," said the 34-year-old Bryant when asked why a lack of energy has been a problem for the Lakers all season. "What do you want? We just got to figure out how to play when we don't have that energy. We got to change things up a little bit defensively. We got to figure out what we want to do offensively, figure out what we want to do on nights when we don't have those legs or have that energy."
Popovich on how the Hornets played last game: ?They?ve been playing all year undermanned and injured,? he said. ?They?ve done a great job of keeping their faith and busting their butts every night so when they did get everybody back, they?d all have an idea of how hard they have to play.
?When you play that hard, even in tough circumstances, and then you get everybody back, you?re rewarded. That?s what?s happened to them, so I?m happy for them.?
That is exactly the opposite of the Laker's mentality, and how the Lakers should play tonight.
Jazz vs. Bobcats
Can the Bobcats win two in a row?! Maybe... Basing this play off a trend that takes into account the margin that a team has gone under the total in the current season, when playing on the road as a favorite between 3 and 7 in a non-conference game. The Bobcats are 12-2 SU (+9.9) and 13-1 ATS in their last fourteen off a win in which they trailed by 10+ points.
No, nothing in this play takes into account the fact that the Bobcats really suck. I hate playing on crap teams, but I am compelled to add them to my ticket tonight :facepalm:
Warriors -2 x2
Spurs -13 x2
Bobcats +5
Hornets +3
May work on some totals later.
Good luck...
OU: 52-45-1 (+2.3)
ML dogs: 2-5 (+1.1)
Warriors vs. Grizzlies
Memphis is on the third game in a road trip and their fourth game in six days. After this game, they will have one day off and then face their division opponent the Spurs at home. The Grizzlies playing as a road dog after a game where they scored 10 or more points than expected are 5-16 SU (-7.7) and 8-13 ATS since the 2009 season.
The Warriors are off a back to back series with the Clippers, in which they were blown out in their last game. Since the 2009 season, the Warriors after a 10 or more point loss as a home favorite are 16-5 SU (+9.6 ppg) and 14-6 ATS.
The difference for the Warriors this year is their elevated defense, and I believe it was probably stressed all weak after their poor outing against the Clippers. After allowing an opponent to shoot at least 50% from the field in a loss, the Warriors in their next game when playing as a home favorite vs. a conference opponent are 7-0 SU (+13.9 ppg) and ATS. The Warriors rank third in the league in rebounding differential and fourth in average opponents? field-goal percentage (42.9%). They were sloppy vs. the Clippers.
?You can?t just wake up and be an elite defensive team. But the more you preach it, the more you hear that message, it shows in how we practice in training camp, how we watch film and study the game,? said point guard Stephen Curry, who has become a surprising pest on defence. ?All that comes into the process of becoming a better team. We still have more ways we can improve. But we are a hundred times better defensively than we were last year, and that?s why our record reflects that. We just have to stick to it.?
Golden State is 20-2 SU (+7.3) and 18-4 ATS when outrebounding an opponent this season, and while they will have a tough matchup vs. Memphis is this area, their rest and drive may put them ahead in this category tonight. The Warriors are 17-3 SU (+6.2) and 16-4 ATS this season when holding opponents below 45% from the field. The Grizzlies average 43.9%, and hopefully are losing some of their legs by this game. A year after having the fourth-worst defense in the league, Golden State is now 9th in the league (based of points per 100 possessions).
David Lee twitter after the Clippers loss: ?Bad outing by our squad but our heads are up and we will bounce back next game, win as a team lose as a team!? The Warriors are 14-2 SU (+13.3) and 13-3 ATS since the 2009 season as a home favorite after a road loss.
Lakers vs. Spurs
The Spurs playing an isolated home game after a road loss are 11-2 (+11.2) and 10-3 ATS. When playing as a home favorite in a game after being outscored in the paint they are 15-0 SU (+10.9) (average line -8.7) in their last fifteen. These numbers really show the strength of this franchise. Since 2010, these numbers are 11-1 SU (+13.5) and 9-3 ATS.
The Lakers are struggling with multiple injuries and will have nothing to stop the Spurs in the paint tonight. The Spurs should be able to control the glass as well, with the Lakers on a back to back and missing their bigs. As a home favorite, the Spurs are 25-2 SU (+17.6) and 23-4 ATS (average line -9.4) in their last 27 when controlling these categories. The Lakers are coming off a tiring game in which both teams were up and down the floor last night. Should we reference Kobe again? OK....
"Cause we're old as s---," said the 34-year-old Bryant when asked why a lack of energy has been a problem for the Lakers all season. "What do you want? We just got to figure out how to play when we don't have that energy. We got to change things up a little bit defensively. We got to figure out what we want to do offensively, figure out what we want to do on nights when we don't have those legs or have that energy."
Popovich on how the Hornets played last game: ?They?ve been playing all year undermanned and injured,? he said. ?They?ve done a great job of keeping their faith and busting their butts every night so when they did get everybody back, they?d all have an idea of how hard they have to play.
?When you play that hard, even in tough circumstances, and then you get everybody back, you?re rewarded. That?s what?s happened to them, so I?m happy for them.?
That is exactly the opposite of the Laker's mentality, and how the Lakers should play tonight.
Jazz vs. Bobcats
Can the Bobcats win two in a row?! Maybe... Basing this play off a trend that takes into account the margin that a team has gone under the total in the current season, when playing on the road as a favorite between 3 and 7 in a non-conference game. The Bobcats are 12-2 SU (+9.9) and 13-1 ATS in their last fourteen off a win in which they trailed by 10+ points.
No, nothing in this play takes into account the fact that the Bobcats really suck. I hate playing on crap teams, but I am compelled to add them to my ticket tonight :facepalm:
Warriors -2 x2
Spurs -13 x2
Bobcats +5
Hornets +3
May work on some totals later.
Good luck...
Last edited:
