- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
ATS: 142-106-7 (+41.4)
OU: 72-63-2 (+1.4)
ML dogs: 5-11 (+0.6)
First - I?m sorry for being so dramatic these last few days. I promise no more talk about not posting, posting, this, that... just going to play it straight the rest of the season. jng is right, that you have to ride through the bad weeks, and it is not a reason to stop. Mainly, I just really liked that he used the word ?specious.? That was cool. I did a cap of myself earlier today, and my results said that based on past performances, I should be able to turn this around. Either way, I do this for fun and I think I will be able to end the year + money, which is always a good thing. I need to not take myself so seriously...sometimes
I like this game too much, and while my analysis and predictions may not always be correct, I?m trying to learn from each game, and improve myself with each year. Can?t improve if you are not willing to lose. On to the substance...
Hornets
The Hornets just got beat at home by the second worst team in the league, and now they are playing against a team on a mission. This line seems super short, even with the Lakers on a back to back. The Lakers are coming off a game where they committed 16 turnovers to the Thunder?s 2. Honestly don't have a lot of trends/stats to back up this play, but just watching the Lakers tells me what I need to know. They just have no hustle in them, and their defense is absolutely horrible. Nash can?t guard anything that moves. Despite his obviously hurting elbow, Kobe played more minutes than any other Laker in the game last night. Their 8 man rotation is forced to play a lot of big minutes, and at this time of year in a back to back, it can really hurt them.
If you watched the game last night, you saw the Lakers continually get slaughtered by the Thunder?s pick and roll. They do not defend this play well, and the Hornets are one of the teams that depend on this play the most - in fact, they get over 25% of their points per game from the pick and roll, and they are 9th in the league at running it efficiently (just after the Thunder). The Hornets have struggled defensively this year, but they always seem to play a lot better in the big games, and especially when they are a dog. Tonight they have a chance to put a real hurt on the Lakers, and they are going to get up for this game huge, and come out with the win.
Nets
The Nets need this win badly. At this point in the season, it is no longer - can you beat the Bobcats? But, how much can you beat the Bobcats by? This is a great matchup for the Nets. Just like they destroyed Orlando four times this year, I expect they will destroy the Bobcats tonight. They are 5-0 SU (+10.2) and 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. I think they will win this by 20 or more.
Utah
The Cavaliers cannot play defense, and they don?t match up well against the Jazz. The Jazz are 5-0 (+12.2 ppg) SU and ATS against the Cavs since the King left town.
After an overtime loss against the Bucks, the Jazz have entered desperation mode, and they should play like it tonight. I don't particularly like their team, but they are better from top to bottom than the Cavaliers, and tonight I think they will come out strong. The Cavs have been playing well, which is why these lines are not super big right now, but tonight I think it should be a one-sided game.
Spurs
The Spurs are just rolling right now, and while the Bulls play tough every game, they are beleaguered by injuries that are going to catch up to them at this time of year. The worst injury for them tonight is Hinrich. Like him or not, the Bulls are better with him on the court. His net rating this season is +4.2, which is second best on the team. When he is not on the floor, the Bulls net rating is -1.0. Almost all of the Bulls? significant players shoot better from the field when he is on the floor. This year, the Bulls are 29-15 with Hinrich, and 5-11 without him.
Utah -1 x2
Nets -8
Hornets +2
Spurs -8
Good luck...
OU: 72-63-2 (+1.4)
ML dogs: 5-11 (+0.6)
First - I?m sorry for being so dramatic these last few days. I promise no more talk about not posting, posting, this, that... just going to play it straight the rest of the season. jng is right, that you have to ride through the bad weeks, and it is not a reason to stop. Mainly, I just really liked that he used the word ?specious.? That was cool. I did a cap of myself earlier today, and my results said that based on past performances, I should be able to turn this around. Either way, I do this for fun and I think I will be able to end the year + money, which is always a good thing. I need to not take myself so seriously...sometimes
I like this game too much, and while my analysis and predictions may not always be correct, I?m trying to learn from each game, and improve myself with each year. Can?t improve if you are not willing to lose. On to the substance...
Hornets
The Hornets just got beat at home by the second worst team in the league, and now they are playing against a team on a mission. This line seems super short, even with the Lakers on a back to back. The Lakers are coming off a game where they committed 16 turnovers to the Thunder?s 2. Honestly don't have a lot of trends/stats to back up this play, but just watching the Lakers tells me what I need to know. They just have no hustle in them, and their defense is absolutely horrible. Nash can?t guard anything that moves. Despite his obviously hurting elbow, Kobe played more minutes than any other Laker in the game last night. Their 8 man rotation is forced to play a lot of big minutes, and at this time of year in a back to back, it can really hurt them.
If you watched the game last night, you saw the Lakers continually get slaughtered by the Thunder?s pick and roll. They do not defend this play well, and the Hornets are one of the teams that depend on this play the most - in fact, they get over 25% of their points per game from the pick and roll, and they are 9th in the league at running it efficiently (just after the Thunder). The Hornets have struggled defensively this year, but they always seem to play a lot better in the big games, and especially when they are a dog. Tonight they have a chance to put a real hurt on the Lakers, and they are going to get up for this game huge, and come out with the win.
Nets
The Nets need this win badly. At this point in the season, it is no longer - can you beat the Bobcats? But, how much can you beat the Bobcats by? This is a great matchup for the Nets. Just like they destroyed Orlando four times this year, I expect they will destroy the Bobcats tonight. They are 5-0 SU (+10.2) and 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. I think they will win this by 20 or more.
Utah
The Cavaliers cannot play defense, and they don?t match up well against the Jazz. The Jazz are 5-0 (+12.2 ppg) SU and ATS against the Cavs since the King left town.
After an overtime loss against the Bucks, the Jazz have entered desperation mode, and they should play like it tonight. I don't particularly like their team, but they are better from top to bottom than the Cavaliers, and tonight I think they will come out strong. The Cavs have been playing well, which is why these lines are not super big right now, but tonight I think it should be a one-sided game.
Spurs
The Spurs are just rolling right now, and while the Bulls play tough every game, they are beleaguered by injuries that are going to catch up to them at this time of year. The worst injury for them tonight is Hinrich. Like him or not, the Bulls are better with him on the court. His net rating this season is +4.2, which is second best on the team. When he is not on the floor, the Bulls net rating is -1.0. Almost all of the Bulls? significant players shoot better from the field when he is on the floor. This year, the Bulls are 29-15 with Hinrich, and 5-11 without him.
Utah -1 x2
Nets -8
Hornets +2
Spurs -8
Good luck...
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