Wed's HIT$

bigruss50

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Feb 7, 2002
27
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Ptown, IL
Suffered my first non-winning day in over a week yesterday with a split. Baylor let me down but the Cincy-Depaul game worked out exactly as planned and that first half line we were debating would have worked out pretty well. Anyway, got some good ones today...

Yesterday 1-1 +0 units
YTD 9-2 +13 units

WED------

Illini -22.5 hosting Penn St. for 2 units

All morning I planned on going big on the Nittany Lions in this one until I really started comparing their schedules a few minutes ago. Penn St. just lost to Northwestern in Happy Valley. I thought you got thrown out of the Big 10 if you lost to N'western at home. 22.5 seemed like a lot until I saw what other teams of the Illini's caliber have done to this lion ballclub: BC by 23, Pitt by 30, Ohio St. by 19, Indiana by 34, Minny by 24, Iowa by 17. On the other side of the coin, Illinois has been dominant at home all year with wins over Gonzaga by 18, GT by 39, Minny by 23, Michigan by 24, and Wisconsin by 32. The Lions are a definite step down from all of those clubs. Penn St. relies on the three ball most of the time and even 11 of those weren't enough to fend off the mighty N'western wildcats on Saturday. This is their only meeting of the year so Penn St. has no clue what to expect and with Northwestern up next for the Illini, they will be able to leave everything on the court tonight. If Illinois wasn't so inconsistent this line would be 30. They realize they need to turn some heads to get a 3 or 4 seed in the dance and they will turn plenty tonight as they bend over PSU in a 35 point rout.

SMS -1 @ Bradley for 3 units

Bradley has been a great home team over the years but always sucked on the road, with a few exceptions back in the day. Somehow, someway this year Coach Molinari has found a way to make them suck no matter where theyre playing. He is a truly pathetic coach and will be enjoying his 2nd to last home game ever this evening when SMS comes to town. Fans in Peoria care more about the upcoming HS basketball playoffs than their sorry excuse for a college team. In fact, the only reason people still go to the games because its one of the rare college facilities that serves alcohol. The braves managed to beat SMS in their first meeting, 64-61 and the Bears will have this in mind entering tonights showdown. SMS starts 4 seniors and a junior while the braves counter with 1 senior, 3 sophs and a freshman. SMS isnt a great road team at all, 2-4 in conference play, but I think they have too much pride on the line to get swept by Bradley. They waltz into Carver Arena tonight and take one from the braves. SMS by 8
 

bigruss50

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Feb 7, 2002
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Ptown, IL
adding cavs

adding cavs

Im adding:

Virginia -3 @ FSU for 2 units

The noles shocked the world when they beat Duke on Jan 6th. Since that day they have gone 2-8 with wins over scrubs UNC and Clemson. Virginia hasnt been a great road team but are starting to look more and more like an ncaa bubble team with a 6-6 ACC mark. With Duke and Maryland still on tap for the Cavs and the realization that 7-9 probably wont get them a tourney bid, Virginia sees this game as a must win. Teams like American and Western Carolina have edged the Noles this year so I don't see Virginia having much trouble. The Cavs get a big one tonight on the road. VA by 9
 

checkraiser

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Nov 8, 2001
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clifton park, ny
I'd be wary of laying 22.5 with Illinois tonight, as I mentioned in an earlier thread Penn St. is 4-0 ats when getting 20 or more points
Penn St. on the road averages 67.4 pg and allows 76.5pg
Illinois at home averages 82.5 pg and allows 64.3
neither amount to 22.5 points here
also the home dominance Illinois possesses is a bit freudulent as they have:
a 40 point win against E. Illinois
a 34 point win against Texas A&M CC
a 36 point win against W. Illinois
a 15 point win against Loyola-IL
these all distort the records and averages
good luck
 

bigruss50

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Feb 7, 2002
27
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Ptown, IL
thanks

thanks

thanks alot for the info but Im still jumping on the Illini. They beat PSU by 32 last year at Assembly Hall and that was a Sweet Sixteen Lions team. Illinois is 14-1 at home this year so even with a few cupcakes they are still a great home team. I have to stay with the Orange tonight. Thanks though
 
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