08:00 PM CFB [308] Eastern Michigan +3-160 (B+2)
08:05 PM NBA [513] Golden State Warriors -6-110
09:05 PM NBA [517] TOTAL o220.5 -110 (Phoenix Suns vrs Denver Nuggets)
08:00 PM CBB [530] Illinois Chicago -5-150 (B+2)
10:00 PM CBB [533] TOTAL o143-110 (San Francisco vrs California Santa Barbara)
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [542] Illinois State -270
10:05 PM NHL [4] TOTAL u5.5 -125 (Arizona Coyotes vrs Calgary Flames)
1 unit bet pays 45 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
GSW @ TOR +5.5
What an effort from the Raptors last night at Cleveland with Lowry (40 mins) and DeRozan (34 mins) playing decent minutes. They?re now on a b2b and playing their 4th game in 6 nights with a lot of travel in between. They?ll be taking on a rested Warriors squad that had 2 full days off. Can the Raptors dig deep and replicate the effort from yesterday? They could, but it?s a long season, and this being a regular season game, that kind of effort is unlikely. Lean: GSW -5.5
Suns vs. Nuggets
Play: Over 220.5
Don't let this big total scare you away from the obvious play here. All signs point to this game eclipsing 220 points. Phoenix ranks No. 1 in the NBA in pace and Denver is No. 6. With both teams coming in off 2 days of rest, the tempo here is going to be frantic. On top of that, we have two of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Suns are giving up 115.3 ppg at home and the Nuggets are allowing 119.3 ppg on the road. Phoenix has played 8 games against teams who rank in the Top 10 in pace and all but one has seen more than 220 points.
Grizzlies vs. Clippers
Play: Under 201?
The league leading Los Angeles Clippers try for their 8th win in a row as they host the Memphis Grizzlies. They?ve won five of the past six meetings against the Grizzlies, including a 99-88 decision in Memphis on November 4.
Los Angeles (10-1, 9-2 ATS) has been simply dominant at home where they?ve won three straight by more than 30 points. They demolished Brooklyn on Monday 127-95 but despite the offensive outburst, the Clips? have been successful thanks in large part to the NBA?s #1 defense LA is allowing a paltry 92.2 points per game overall and just 85.8 ppg at home.
Paul had 21 points, nine assists and five steals in the blowout of Brooklyn and has had six thefts on two occasions, including once against the Grizzlies.
Memphis (5-5, 4-6 ATS) is playing the third game of a four-game road trek and is coming off a 102-96 victory against the Utah Jazz. They?ve been a nightmare against the number going 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games. However the Grizzlies have enjoyed the lights of LA going 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
The Clippers are 5-1 SU and ATS at home while Memphis is 1-3 SU and ATS as a visitor.
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings at Staples Center and 6-1-1 to the low side in the past eight meetings overall.
Grizzlies at Clippers
Pick: Under
Memphis plays strong defense, 24-10 under the total against the NBA Pacific division, plus 16-7 under away against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. LA can play any style and is 20-6 under the total at home. The Under is 34-15-2 in Clippers last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. And when these teams clash the under is 6-1-1, including 4-0 under in this building.
Thunder -2
The Oklahoma City Thunder will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost four straight games coming in following a 6-1 start to the season. They will be laying it all on the line to put an end to this four-game skid at home here Wednesday.
I believe this recent skid has the Thunder undervalued here as only 2-point home favorites when they should be laying 5-6. The Houston Rockets come in overvalued after winning three of their last four, including a 115-88 blowout victory over Philadelphia last time out on Monday.
Home-court advantage was huge last season when these teams got together. The home team went a perfect 4-0 in last season's four meetings. The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings overall as well.
Houston is 7-21 ATS after having won four or five of its past six games over the last two seasons. Oklahoma City is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The Rockets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.
CLE @ IND +4.5
What a game yesterday between the Cavs and the Raptors. James played 38 minutes and Love/Irving 35 minutes each. Now on a b2b+3in4 spot and having to travel, this is a difficult fatigue spot for Cleveland. Pacers have been at home for 4 days and I?m sure will want to make a ?statement? here and get their season back on track. I?d expect a really hard effort from them as this is a ?let-down? spot for the Champs. Lean: IND +4.5
In the Sights, NBA?
I have been hesitant to do much with the Warriors in the early stages of the season, having noted some of their issues here in terms of defense and rebounding, all the while they are carrying premium prices in the marketplace. But I see opportunity this evening, a major edge in energy between what they will bring and the Raptors, and that means #513 Golden State (8:05 Eastern) going into pocket, with plenty of -5.5 available in the Wednesday morning trading, and this one good up to -6.
No team faces a worse back-to-back setting this season than what Toronto is going through, having gone to the max at Cleveland last night, where the Raptors still had the lead with 1:00 remaining, and now having no time to get physically fresh, or to put a game plan together. Meanwhile the Warriors were already in Toronto, only having beaten Phoenix at home over the previous five days, and with Thursday also off. That not only means coming in about as physically fresh as a team can be, but also ample time for Steve Kerr to draw up a game plan. With the Raptors having made it to the Eastern Conference finals last May, it is a game that the key cogs will perceive as a major challenge, which will help lead to everyone buying in.
The one part of the GS transition that is working is an offense playing unselfishly ? the Warriors are getting assists on 70.4 percent of all baskets, no other team above 64.0, and they are also #3 in pace. Put a rested team that will play fast and move the ball well against a tired defense, and at some point we get an explosion or two to break this open.
Item: On the Conundrum with the Clippers
Doc Rivers has a pattern for game management that has written about here several times over the last couple of seasons, and it has been put into play twice with ?In the Sights?? tickets this season, those games splitting, but coming within a bounce or two of falling 0-2. The reason why one play lost, and the other was perilously close, is important as a setting under the tent appears on the Wednesday board ? the handicapping notions ran into difficulty because in one aspect of the game they were a little bit too right.
So here comes the conundrum ? Does an Under become a risk because a Defense is too good?
I?ll go back to the base point. Because of his experience as both a coach and a player, including multiple trips to the Finals, Rivers knows the rigors of the NBA scheduling grind about as well as anyone. Since his Clippers teams have entered the recent seasons as contenders to be playing into June he has taken advantage of one particular setting to back off the throttle ? when in the role of a double figure home favorite Rivers has gone out of his way to slow things down and save energy for more important games ahead, and it has led to a 30-14-2 Under tally in such affairs.
The logic is sound ? take control of the game, and then slow the tempo and play sound defense to guarantee the win at a low expenditure of energy. There is a complication this time, however ? the defense may be too damn good.
The Clippers began getting more aggressive defensively when Blake Griffin was injured last season, a greater emphasis on getting into the passing lanes. Now Griffin is back, and as noted on Monday, Rivers said this about Luc Richard Mbah a Moute ? ?Luc right now, there?s nobody in the league that?s a better defensive player than Luc.? The numbers speak for themselves, the Clippers not just playing the best defense in the league, but head and shoulders above the others ?
Defensive PP 100
LAC 93.0
Atlanta 95.1
Detroit 99.2
Miami 99.4
Charlotte 99.4
So this shouldn?t be a problem for the pattern, should it? With a great defense it is even easier to choke off weak opponents, and get the game flow that Rivers prefers. But it hasn?t work that way. The defense has been so good that it has demolished the weaker teams at the Staples Center, and instead of slow grinders in the fourth quarter, it has been reserves for both teams going out and playing loosely. Let?s go back and take a look.
November 7 ? LAC 114 DETROIT 82 (Total: 197)
This one did not fit the double-figure line part of the equation, but as you can see in the earlier table the Pistons were also playing sound defense, so I bought a ticket. The problem was that there was none of the game handicap left when it was 47-19 LAC with 7:00 just 17 minutes in. Instead of the fourth quarter being played under control not a single Clipper starter ever left the bench. The Pistons had been held to 53 points in the first three quarters, yet scored 29 in the fourth.
November 9 ? LAC 111 PORTLAND 80 (Total: 211)
This game did not get written about here but fit the old Rivers pattern, LAC being -11, but also is part of the new pattern as well. The Clippers took full control with their early defense, leading 61-32 at halftime, and while the game stayed under note that once again none of the starters played a minute in the fourth quarter, when the Trail Blazers scored 30 of their 80 points.
November 14 ? LAC 127 BROOKLYN 95 (Total 213)
I lost this ticket, and the handicap did not even last through the end of the first quarter. Instead of winning an Under because the defense was good, it was a loss because the defense was too good. It was 39-14 for the Clippers after the first 12 minutes, and once again no starter saw the floor for the final stanza. And note the defensive flow again ? the Nets got 30 of their 95 points over those final 12 minutes of play.
You see the problem here ? the defense has been so good on this court that the game flows that have fit the pattern haven?t been there. The games have broken open so early that the entire final stanzas have been garbage time. As such, also note something else that you can build into your thinking from reviewing those games ? the LAC defense has been even better than the PP100 counts show, the high counts allowed in the fourth quarter of those three highlighted games not really belonging in that mix.
Want to have some real fun? Here are the individual defense PP100 counts, based on players averaging at least 20 minutes per game:
Luc Mbah a Moute 85.6
DeAndre Jordan 86.6
Chris Paul 87.7
JJ Redick 88.5
Jonathon Simmons 88.9
Blake Griffin 89.7
Only San Antonio?s Simmons prevents the Clippers from having the top five players in the league in the category.
So you see the conundrum for tonight ? the Clippers are -12 and 201.5 vs. Memphis, but looking for another Rivers Under is made complicated by the fact that the defense may simply be a little too good, and create a different game flow than the past. But upon the digging there is another alternative ? I will make #522 LAC First Half (10:35) a path, with -7 out there this morning.
When you see those early Clipper game flows it may look like the offense has been exploding, but the reality has been more a case of the defensive pressure leading to easy scoring opportunities, which they are taking advantage of, Chris Paul having a remarkably efficient season (his overall numbers don?t jump off the page because his minutes have been so low). The Clippers jumped out 53-35 on the Grizzlies in Memphis earlier, and while there might sometimes be fear of a team going flat in the rematch off of such a game there schedule lays this out well ? Paul & Co. had Sunday off, may not have even broke a sweat vs. the Nets on Monday, and also have tomorrow off, so the setting is proper to call for them to throw another hard early punch.
-----
BALL STATE AT TOLEDO
PLAY: BALL STATE +21
Toledo is a heavy favorite to defeat Ball State in Wednesday MACtion. It?s obviously not a scintillating matchup on paper as the Rockets are the significantly superior team.
But this is also one of those games where there?s an underlying factor that could at least impact the spread result. Toledo still has designs on getting to the MAC title game. The Rockets need to win here and then find a way to register the upset next Friday night when they visit powerful Western Michigan.
The margin doesn?t mean a thing, and the only task tonight for the home team is to simply avoid getting upset. I wouldn?t blame anyone on the Toledo roster for being a bit compacent tonight against the lowly Cardinals. That qualifies this game as a look ahead spot for Toledo, and covering a gigantic spread might not be easy under these conditions.
Ball State has been its own worst enemy en route to a meager 1-5 MAC record. The Cardinals have a terrible -10 net turnover stat over their last five games, and they?re simply not close to being good enough to overcome that kind of handicap. That?s my biggest concern here. If Ball State goes into Santa Claus mode again, they?re probably going to get crushed.
Nevertheless, it?s a spot where I?ve got an opportunity to take roughly three touchdowns against a team that basically just wants to get off the field with a win in which they stay healthy. I believe under these conditions, the number is probably a little too high, so I?m taking the plunge with Ball State and the big points.
Coyotes vs. Flames
Play: Coyotes +120
The Coyotes are expected to have #1 goalie Mike Smith back for tonight's game and Arizona also expects the return of centerman Martin Hanzal which will combine to give this club a nice boost. Also, the Coyotes have been off since Saturday whereas they catch the Flames in the 2nd night of a back to back and travel was involved too. Calgary was in Minnesota last night where they snuck out a 1-0 win over the wild but the winning goal was scored by Johnny Gaudreau who is now expected to miss tonight's game after getting hurt late in last night's game. This is a revenge game for the Coyotes as they lost at home to the Flames in late March. Prior to that defeat Arizona had beaten Calgary in 4 straight meetings! The situation (based on injuries and rest advantages) is perfect for the Coyotes to resume their winning ways against the Flames tonight. Calgary has been held to one goal or less in 6 of their last 8 games as their offensive production continues to leave a lot to be desired! Look for hungry (and rejuvenated) Arizona to make it 5-1 their last 6 against the Flames while dropping Calgary to 1-6 this season in their games against divisional opponents.
Arizona +129 over CALGARY
OT included. Give the Flames credit for willing their way to a 1-0 victory in Minnesota last night but it?s still not enough to warrant getting behind them. The Flames were a completely desperate bunch last night after four straight losses and just five wins in 16 games. They held on for dear life but when a team plays that hard on a Tuesday night in November and wins by scoring just one goal, it is a warning sign of more misery to come. Calgary has scored two goals or less in seven of its past eight and one goal or less an incredible six times over their past eight games. One of the main reasons the Flames won last night was because Chad Johnson was in net. That leaves Brian Elliott and his shaken confidence manning the nets tonight under heavy media and fan scrutiny. Calgary is a much better play on the road taking back a tag than they are at home spotting one.
The Arizona Coyotes are the NHL?s forgotten team. They are making zero noise this year with five wins in 14 games and aside from that, they usually start at an odd time anyway, that being when the early games are near the end and the late games haven?t started yet. Market perception will now have influence on how we proceed here. Arizona is not off to a good start but in its defense, they have been bit by some early key injuries and an adjustment period to new personnel. All the signs are pointing in the right direction now.
Arizona is healthy with Michael Stone back. Stone joins Alex Golikoski, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Luke Schenn, Connor Murphy and two fine looking rookies in Jakob Chychrn and Anthony DeAngelo to form a defensive group that many other GM?s would trade their entire defense for in a heartbeat. The ?Yotes have allowed 29 shots on net or less in three straight. They have won three of their last six games, including victories over San Jose and Nashville. 14 games in and the Coyotes are starting to look and play like the hard-working and determined team they were a year ago. This is a better team than last year that is well-coached, loaded up on defense and that should provide us with plenty of opportunities to cash. This is one of them.
08:05 PM NBA [513] Golden State Warriors -6-110
09:05 PM NBA [517] TOTAL o220.5 -110 (Phoenix Suns vrs Denver Nuggets)
08:00 PM CBB [530] Illinois Chicago -5-150 (B+2)
10:00 PM CBB [533] TOTAL o143-110 (San Francisco vrs California Santa Barbara)
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [542] Illinois State -270
10:05 PM NHL [4] TOTAL u5.5 -125 (Arizona Coyotes vrs Calgary Flames)
1 unit bet pays 45 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
GSW @ TOR +5.5
What an effort from the Raptors last night at Cleveland with Lowry (40 mins) and DeRozan (34 mins) playing decent minutes. They?re now on a b2b and playing their 4th game in 6 nights with a lot of travel in between. They?ll be taking on a rested Warriors squad that had 2 full days off. Can the Raptors dig deep and replicate the effort from yesterday? They could, but it?s a long season, and this being a regular season game, that kind of effort is unlikely. Lean: GSW -5.5
Suns vs. Nuggets
Play: Over 220.5
Don't let this big total scare you away from the obvious play here. All signs point to this game eclipsing 220 points. Phoenix ranks No. 1 in the NBA in pace and Denver is No. 6. With both teams coming in off 2 days of rest, the tempo here is going to be frantic. On top of that, we have two of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Suns are giving up 115.3 ppg at home and the Nuggets are allowing 119.3 ppg on the road. Phoenix has played 8 games against teams who rank in the Top 10 in pace and all but one has seen more than 220 points.
Grizzlies vs. Clippers
Play: Under 201?
The league leading Los Angeles Clippers try for their 8th win in a row as they host the Memphis Grizzlies. They?ve won five of the past six meetings against the Grizzlies, including a 99-88 decision in Memphis on November 4.
Los Angeles (10-1, 9-2 ATS) has been simply dominant at home where they?ve won three straight by more than 30 points. They demolished Brooklyn on Monday 127-95 but despite the offensive outburst, the Clips? have been successful thanks in large part to the NBA?s #1 defense LA is allowing a paltry 92.2 points per game overall and just 85.8 ppg at home.
Paul had 21 points, nine assists and five steals in the blowout of Brooklyn and has had six thefts on two occasions, including once against the Grizzlies.
Memphis (5-5, 4-6 ATS) is playing the third game of a four-game road trek and is coming off a 102-96 victory against the Utah Jazz. They?ve been a nightmare against the number going 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games. However the Grizzlies have enjoyed the lights of LA going 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
The Clippers are 5-1 SU and ATS at home while Memphis is 1-3 SU and ATS as a visitor.
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings at Staples Center and 6-1-1 to the low side in the past eight meetings overall.
Grizzlies at Clippers
Pick: Under
Memphis plays strong defense, 24-10 under the total against the NBA Pacific division, plus 16-7 under away against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. LA can play any style and is 20-6 under the total at home. The Under is 34-15-2 in Clippers last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. And when these teams clash the under is 6-1-1, including 4-0 under in this building.
Thunder -2
The Oklahoma City Thunder will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost four straight games coming in following a 6-1 start to the season. They will be laying it all on the line to put an end to this four-game skid at home here Wednesday.
I believe this recent skid has the Thunder undervalued here as only 2-point home favorites when they should be laying 5-6. The Houston Rockets come in overvalued after winning three of their last four, including a 115-88 blowout victory over Philadelphia last time out on Monday.
Home-court advantage was huge last season when these teams got together. The home team went a perfect 4-0 in last season's four meetings. The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings overall as well.
Houston is 7-21 ATS after having won four or five of its past six games over the last two seasons. Oklahoma City is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The Rockets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.
CLE @ IND +4.5
What a game yesterday between the Cavs and the Raptors. James played 38 minutes and Love/Irving 35 minutes each. Now on a b2b+3in4 spot and having to travel, this is a difficult fatigue spot for Cleveland. Pacers have been at home for 4 days and I?m sure will want to make a ?statement? here and get their season back on track. I?d expect a really hard effort from them as this is a ?let-down? spot for the Champs. Lean: IND +4.5
In the Sights, NBA?
I have been hesitant to do much with the Warriors in the early stages of the season, having noted some of their issues here in terms of defense and rebounding, all the while they are carrying premium prices in the marketplace. But I see opportunity this evening, a major edge in energy between what they will bring and the Raptors, and that means #513 Golden State (8:05 Eastern) going into pocket, with plenty of -5.5 available in the Wednesday morning trading, and this one good up to -6.
No team faces a worse back-to-back setting this season than what Toronto is going through, having gone to the max at Cleveland last night, where the Raptors still had the lead with 1:00 remaining, and now having no time to get physically fresh, or to put a game plan together. Meanwhile the Warriors were already in Toronto, only having beaten Phoenix at home over the previous five days, and with Thursday also off. That not only means coming in about as physically fresh as a team can be, but also ample time for Steve Kerr to draw up a game plan. With the Raptors having made it to the Eastern Conference finals last May, it is a game that the key cogs will perceive as a major challenge, which will help lead to everyone buying in.
The one part of the GS transition that is working is an offense playing unselfishly ? the Warriors are getting assists on 70.4 percent of all baskets, no other team above 64.0, and they are also #3 in pace. Put a rested team that will play fast and move the ball well against a tired defense, and at some point we get an explosion or two to break this open.
Item: On the Conundrum with the Clippers
Doc Rivers has a pattern for game management that has written about here several times over the last couple of seasons, and it has been put into play twice with ?In the Sights?? tickets this season, those games splitting, but coming within a bounce or two of falling 0-2. The reason why one play lost, and the other was perilously close, is important as a setting under the tent appears on the Wednesday board ? the handicapping notions ran into difficulty because in one aspect of the game they were a little bit too right.
So here comes the conundrum ? Does an Under become a risk because a Defense is too good?
I?ll go back to the base point. Because of his experience as both a coach and a player, including multiple trips to the Finals, Rivers knows the rigors of the NBA scheduling grind about as well as anyone. Since his Clippers teams have entered the recent seasons as contenders to be playing into June he has taken advantage of one particular setting to back off the throttle ? when in the role of a double figure home favorite Rivers has gone out of his way to slow things down and save energy for more important games ahead, and it has led to a 30-14-2 Under tally in such affairs.
The logic is sound ? take control of the game, and then slow the tempo and play sound defense to guarantee the win at a low expenditure of energy. There is a complication this time, however ? the defense may be too damn good.
The Clippers began getting more aggressive defensively when Blake Griffin was injured last season, a greater emphasis on getting into the passing lanes. Now Griffin is back, and as noted on Monday, Rivers said this about Luc Richard Mbah a Moute ? ?Luc right now, there?s nobody in the league that?s a better defensive player than Luc.? The numbers speak for themselves, the Clippers not just playing the best defense in the league, but head and shoulders above the others ?
Defensive PP 100
LAC 93.0
Atlanta 95.1
Detroit 99.2
Miami 99.4
Charlotte 99.4
So this shouldn?t be a problem for the pattern, should it? With a great defense it is even easier to choke off weak opponents, and get the game flow that Rivers prefers. But it hasn?t work that way. The defense has been so good that it has demolished the weaker teams at the Staples Center, and instead of slow grinders in the fourth quarter, it has been reserves for both teams going out and playing loosely. Let?s go back and take a look.
November 7 ? LAC 114 DETROIT 82 (Total: 197)
This one did not fit the double-figure line part of the equation, but as you can see in the earlier table the Pistons were also playing sound defense, so I bought a ticket. The problem was that there was none of the game handicap left when it was 47-19 LAC with 7:00 just 17 minutes in. Instead of the fourth quarter being played under control not a single Clipper starter ever left the bench. The Pistons had been held to 53 points in the first three quarters, yet scored 29 in the fourth.
November 9 ? LAC 111 PORTLAND 80 (Total: 211)
This game did not get written about here but fit the old Rivers pattern, LAC being -11, but also is part of the new pattern as well. The Clippers took full control with their early defense, leading 61-32 at halftime, and while the game stayed under note that once again none of the starters played a minute in the fourth quarter, when the Trail Blazers scored 30 of their 80 points.
November 14 ? LAC 127 BROOKLYN 95 (Total 213)
I lost this ticket, and the handicap did not even last through the end of the first quarter. Instead of winning an Under because the defense was good, it was a loss because the defense was too good. It was 39-14 for the Clippers after the first 12 minutes, and once again no starter saw the floor for the final stanza. And note the defensive flow again ? the Nets got 30 of their 95 points over those final 12 minutes of play.
You see the problem here ? the defense has been so good on this court that the game flows that have fit the pattern haven?t been there. The games have broken open so early that the entire final stanzas have been garbage time. As such, also note something else that you can build into your thinking from reviewing those games ? the LAC defense has been even better than the PP100 counts show, the high counts allowed in the fourth quarter of those three highlighted games not really belonging in that mix.
Want to have some real fun? Here are the individual defense PP100 counts, based on players averaging at least 20 minutes per game:
Luc Mbah a Moute 85.6
DeAndre Jordan 86.6
Chris Paul 87.7
JJ Redick 88.5
Jonathon Simmons 88.9
Blake Griffin 89.7
Only San Antonio?s Simmons prevents the Clippers from having the top five players in the league in the category.
So you see the conundrum for tonight ? the Clippers are -12 and 201.5 vs. Memphis, but looking for another Rivers Under is made complicated by the fact that the defense may simply be a little too good, and create a different game flow than the past. But upon the digging there is another alternative ? I will make #522 LAC First Half (10:35) a path, with -7 out there this morning.
When you see those early Clipper game flows it may look like the offense has been exploding, but the reality has been more a case of the defensive pressure leading to easy scoring opportunities, which they are taking advantage of, Chris Paul having a remarkably efficient season (his overall numbers don?t jump off the page because his minutes have been so low). The Clippers jumped out 53-35 on the Grizzlies in Memphis earlier, and while there might sometimes be fear of a team going flat in the rematch off of such a game there schedule lays this out well ? Paul & Co. had Sunday off, may not have even broke a sweat vs. the Nets on Monday, and also have tomorrow off, so the setting is proper to call for them to throw another hard early punch.
-----
BALL STATE AT TOLEDO
PLAY: BALL STATE +21
Toledo is a heavy favorite to defeat Ball State in Wednesday MACtion. It?s obviously not a scintillating matchup on paper as the Rockets are the significantly superior team.
But this is also one of those games where there?s an underlying factor that could at least impact the spread result. Toledo still has designs on getting to the MAC title game. The Rockets need to win here and then find a way to register the upset next Friday night when they visit powerful Western Michigan.
The margin doesn?t mean a thing, and the only task tonight for the home team is to simply avoid getting upset. I wouldn?t blame anyone on the Toledo roster for being a bit compacent tonight against the lowly Cardinals. That qualifies this game as a look ahead spot for Toledo, and covering a gigantic spread might not be easy under these conditions.
Ball State has been its own worst enemy en route to a meager 1-5 MAC record. The Cardinals have a terrible -10 net turnover stat over their last five games, and they?re simply not close to being good enough to overcome that kind of handicap. That?s my biggest concern here. If Ball State goes into Santa Claus mode again, they?re probably going to get crushed.
Nevertheless, it?s a spot where I?ve got an opportunity to take roughly three touchdowns against a team that basically just wants to get off the field with a win in which they stay healthy. I believe under these conditions, the number is probably a little too high, so I?m taking the plunge with Ball State and the big points.
Coyotes vs. Flames
Play: Coyotes +120
The Coyotes are expected to have #1 goalie Mike Smith back for tonight's game and Arizona also expects the return of centerman Martin Hanzal which will combine to give this club a nice boost. Also, the Coyotes have been off since Saturday whereas they catch the Flames in the 2nd night of a back to back and travel was involved too. Calgary was in Minnesota last night where they snuck out a 1-0 win over the wild but the winning goal was scored by Johnny Gaudreau who is now expected to miss tonight's game after getting hurt late in last night's game. This is a revenge game for the Coyotes as they lost at home to the Flames in late March. Prior to that defeat Arizona had beaten Calgary in 4 straight meetings! The situation (based on injuries and rest advantages) is perfect for the Coyotes to resume their winning ways against the Flames tonight. Calgary has been held to one goal or less in 6 of their last 8 games as their offensive production continues to leave a lot to be desired! Look for hungry (and rejuvenated) Arizona to make it 5-1 their last 6 against the Flames while dropping Calgary to 1-6 this season in their games against divisional opponents.
Arizona +129 over CALGARY
OT included. Give the Flames credit for willing their way to a 1-0 victory in Minnesota last night but it?s still not enough to warrant getting behind them. The Flames were a completely desperate bunch last night after four straight losses and just five wins in 16 games. They held on for dear life but when a team plays that hard on a Tuesday night in November and wins by scoring just one goal, it is a warning sign of more misery to come. Calgary has scored two goals or less in seven of its past eight and one goal or less an incredible six times over their past eight games. One of the main reasons the Flames won last night was because Chad Johnson was in net. That leaves Brian Elliott and his shaken confidence manning the nets tonight under heavy media and fan scrutiny. Calgary is a much better play on the road taking back a tag than they are at home spotting one.
The Arizona Coyotes are the NHL?s forgotten team. They are making zero noise this year with five wins in 14 games and aside from that, they usually start at an odd time anyway, that being when the early games are near the end and the late games haven?t started yet. Market perception will now have influence on how we proceed here. Arizona is not off to a good start but in its defense, they have been bit by some early key injuries and an adjustment period to new personnel. All the signs are pointing in the right direction now.
Arizona is healthy with Michael Stone back. Stone joins Alex Golikoski, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Luke Schenn, Connor Murphy and two fine looking rookies in Jakob Chychrn and Anthony DeAngelo to form a defensive group that many other GM?s would trade their entire defense for in a heartbeat. The ?Yotes have allowed 29 shots on net or less in three straight. They have won three of their last six games, including victories over San Jose and Nashville. 14 games in and the Coyotes are starting to look and play like the hard-working and determined team they were a year ago. This is a better team than last year that is well-coached, loaded up on defense and that should provide us with plenty of opportunities to cash. This is one of them.
