07:35 PM NBA [504] Toronto Raptors -10.5 -150 (B+2)
08:05 PM NBA [508] Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 -155 (B+2)
08:35 PM NBA [513] San Antonio Spurs -9.5 -105
10:05 PM NBA [520] Portland Trail Blazers -7.5 -110
07:10 PM CBB [536] Louisville -6.5 -103
08:00 PM CBB [558] Arkansas State -5.5 -150 (B+2)
08:30 PM CBB [560] Depaul -8.5 -110
08:05 PM NHL [1] Pittsburgh Penguins -185
10:35 PM NHL [6] Los Angeles Kings -122
1 unit bet pays 178....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Knicks vs. Wolves
Play: Wolves -3?
The Minnesota Timberwolves have the statistical profile of a .500 team despite their 5-12 record. They are only getting outscored by 0.9 points per game on the season. They problem is that they have dominated in the first half, but they haven't been able to close out games in the second half. They've already lost four times in which they led by at least 15 points.
I think the Timberwolves will come out with a chip on their shoulder tonight at home against the New York Knicks while finally putting together 48-minute game. They are clearly undervalued right now due to their record, and I believe it's about time to start backing them because of it.
The New York Knicks have been awful on the road this season. They are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS on the road compared to 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS at home. The Knicks are getting outscored by an average of 11.4 points per game on the road. They are giving up 111.7 points per game away from home as well. Minnesota is outscoring opponents by 5.9 points per game at home.
Tom Thibodeau is 46-23 ATS off a home loss in all games he has coached. The Timberwolves are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Miami vs. Denver
Pick: Miami +6.5
The Denver Nuggets put together some strong teams over a five year period from 2008-2012. They became one of the top home courts in the NBA, going 205-55 SU. The team began to decline, and with it their home court no longer had any advantage, in fact it has been a disadvantage. Since the start of the 2013 season, the Nuggets have been below .500 at home at 62-69 SU. More importantly they have been a woeful 57-73-1 ATS, and just 26-37 ATS as a home favorite (13-26 ATS to a line of more than -4). The Heat have not played well enough to win, but since election day, they have lost just one game on the road by more than seven points, and have been competitive.
In the Sights, Wednesday NBA?
One of the prime concepts across all sports is something that does not come up nearly enough, but works well when it does ? many bad teams are even worse than they appear to be, but get breaks on the scoreboards and in the box scores because the opposition doesn?t take them seriously. Dallas is currently one such team, but the Spurs will take the Mavericks seriously tonight, especially in the early stages, and that leads to #513 San Antonio First Half (8:35 Eastern), with -4.5 easy to find in the morning trading, and this one good to -5.
First to set the scoreboard/statistical stage, the struggling Mavs will show a solid result at San Antonio last week, only falling 96-91. One shouldn?t attach much merit to it, with Gregg Popovich using the game as the opportunity to give LaMarcus Aldridge and Tony Parker an evening off, which goes back to the base concept. But tonight?s focus will be much different. The Spurs were bad in so many different ways last night ? season high turnovers, season high shooting percentage allowed, season low of points, etc. ? that this becomes an evening in which the whip gets cracked, and given how well San Antonio has played on the road this season, a 10-0 SU and 7-2-1 ATS, both spread losses coming by a half point, this is an easy team to trust.
There is a classical inside/out for this one, a favorite that just lost outright vs. an underdog that just won a game outright, those last two outcomes falling 40 points off of the market projections (old friend Marc L. would call it a "DBO 40"), which will bring reversals of pendulums on their own. But when it is a favorite with the pride that San Antonio brings, that makes it even better. My interest will not be in the full game, since Popovich does not have a compelling reason to get the final margin into double figures, but I do expect the Spurs to throw hard punches in the early stages.
Spurs -8?
I have no problem laying a big number on the road with the Spurs against the Mavericks. San Antonio will be in a foul mood Wednesday, as they had their 9-game winning streak snapped at home against the Magic of all teams. The Spurs simply didn't have it, as they shot just 36.8% (28-76) from the field and a mere 25% (5-20) from 3-point range. They were also sloppy with the ball, committing a season-high 18 turnovers.
No Spurs player played more than 32 minutes, so we should see a full roster from SA tonight. Even if Popovich decides to rest some players, this Mavs team is one they can beat by double-digits with their reserves. Dallas comes in off a surprising 91-81 win over the Pelicans, but are still a mere 3-13 on the season, scoring just 91.5 ppg.
These two teams recently played in San Antonio on 11/21. The Spurs won 96-91, but if you remember that was the game where Popovich blasted his players for how poorly they played in the win. That's going to only add more fuel to the fire here for San Antonio, who comes in a perfect 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS on the road this season.
Spurs are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 or more points, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing on 0 days of rest. Mavs are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after covering the number in their last contest.
Heat vs. Nuggets
Play: Nuggets -6
Denver is a team on the rise. Miami is a team on the decline. Look for that to play out in today's game.
The Heat will be missing key contributors Dion Waiters and Justice Winslow as they open a three-game road trip. Miami is 5-12 because its talent level is way down. Not having those two injured players further weakens the Heat.
Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic are the Heat's only two good players and both of them are dealing with injuries. Neither is 100 percent. The rest of the Heat players are backup quality.
The Nuggets, by contrast, are getting healthier. They are expected to get back Danilo Gallinari, their best offensive player, spark plug Will Barton and Juancho Hernangomez.
Denver's strength is its rebounding with big men Kenneth Faried, Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nukic. This is going to be a tough matchup for Whiteside, who has a sore knee.
The Nuggets have had two days of rest and preparation. They have covered four of the past five times when having two days off. Denver has taken care of business at home recently. The Nuggets have defeated the Suns by 16 points, Jazz by 14 and Bulls by three while losing to the Raptors in overtime and Thunder in overtime during their past five home games.
The Heat are a much lesser foe than the Bulls, Raptors, Thunder and Jazz. So look for the Nuggets to follow their pattern and beat the Heat by a comfortable margin.
Pacers vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -7?
The Blazers have been a major early season disappointment. After finishing with the #5 seed in the West last year, Portland is just 9-10 SU, 6-13 ATS to open the new campaign. That includes six losses in their last eight games. Twice in their last three contests, the Blazers have allowed their opponent to score 130+ against them!
Less than 12 hours following the latest loss ? at home against Houston on Sunday ? head coach Terry Stotts had his team back on the practice floor. All Star point guard Damian Lillard: ?This is the first time we've had a real practice in what seems like forever. It was good for us to try to sharpen up, (to have) coaches challenge us. It's to the point now where our pride has to kick in. We have to show how much we actually care about ... being better defensively."
Lillard continued: "We scored 125 points against Cleveland. That's a lot of points to score and not win a game. Right now, we're not getting it done on the defensive end. That's what it comes down to.?
Shooting guard Allen Crabbe concurred: ?We keep preaching it, but it's getting old. At some point, it has to click. We keep telling ourselves we have to get better, but at some point, we have to get it going."
This is clearly a ?maximum intensity? game for the home favorite. That?s not the case for the road underdog. Indiana is coming off back-2-back very satisfying home wins over the Clippers and Nets, holding LA to a season low 70 points in a 21 point blowout on Sunday. They?re playing without their All Star, Paul George, and key role player CJ Miles, both listed as ?out? for tonight. They don?t play again after tonight until Sunday in LA ? they?ve got a much needed break on deck; rarely a good thing for an NBA underdog.
The kicker here is Indiana?s own defensive issues. The Pacers have had one consistent bugaboo in early season play ? an inability to stop quicker guards from dribble penetration, getting good looks in the paint for themselves and their teammates. The likes of Monte Ellis, Ron Stuckey and Aaron Brooks are not defensive stoppers. The Blazers backcourt duo of Lillard and CJ McCollum are as good a dribble penetrating duo as you?ll find in the league. That gives the Blazers a matchup edge to go along with their situational edge in a game they?re primed to win by margin!
Indiana vs. Portland
Pick: Portland
The 9-9 Indiana Pacers open a five-game road trip in Portland, one which which won?t end until Dec 9 in Dallas. The 9-10 Portland Blazers will be taking the court off a 130-114 thumping at the hands the Rockets this past Sunday, a game in which Houston connected on 56.1 percent from the floor, including 17 of 36 on threes.
The Blazers are tired of talking about getting better at the defensive end. "We keep preaching it, but it's getting old," guard Allen Crabbe said. "At some point, it has to click. We keep telling ourselves we have to get better, but at some point, we have to get it going." However, here?s the rub, they?ve had trouble stopping anybody. Portland owns the worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA (109.80) and is giving up more points (113.7 PPG) than any team in the league other than the Brooklyn Nets (114.0). Cleveland blitzed them for 137 points, Golden State for 127, Houston for 126 and 130, even Phoenix for 121. "We talked about not taking steps back," head coach Nate McMillan said. "We've played some good games, and then you can't recognize the team the next game. We need to build some momentum at this point in the season."
The Pacers lost the first two games of a four-game homestand but then routed the Nets 118-97 and stunned the Clippers, 90-71! Was it good defense or did the Clippers just shoot poorly? LA connected on just 31.4 percent from the floor, including 4 of 24 on threes. The Pacers? recent back-to-back home wins came without the services of star forward Paul George (20.8-6.9-3.5), who has missed six of the past seven games and will also sit out Wednesday's contest with ankle and back injuries. The 6-11 Myles Turner (14.7-7.6) has stepped up in just his second season and is ably backed up by veteran Al Jefferson (7.0-4.4). The trade for PG Jeff Teague (14.6-6.8 APG) has been a good one plus the Pacers have a trio of players capable of scoring in SF Miles (13.0), PF Young (12.1-6.1) and SG Ellis (10.6-3.7-4.2). The current bad news is that like George, Miles won?t play here.
Portland guards Lillard (28.2) and McCollum (22.3) are the second-highest scoring duo in the NBA (next to Durant and Curry) but only only SF Harkless (12.7) joins them in double digits. Still, Portland is one of the NBA?s best offensive teams, ranking third with 109.7 PPG and the Pacers are 1-5 SU & ATS on the road primarily because they can?t stop teams from scoring away from home, allowing 114.7 PPG. Lay the points with the Blazers.
Hawks vs. Suns
Play: Suns +6
While Phoenix may not be the most intimidating venue in the league, I don't feel the Hawks deserve to be laying this many points here. At least, not the way that they're currently playing. Atlanta, which is playing the final leg of a 5-game trip, has just one win in its past seven games. Having been away for some time, including through Thanksgiving, it may be easy to get caught thinking about the return trip home. For the season, the Hawks are now 4-6 SU/ATS away from Atlanta.
The Suns may be only 1-3 their last four games. However, only one of those four games resulted in a loss of greater than six points. Off a 120-114 setback last time out, note that they're 10-3 ATS the last 13 times that they'd allowed 105 or more points in their previous game. The Suns will be playing the third game of a 3-game homestand. Prior to that, they'd played six straight on the road. After this, they get a couple days off, before playing at Golden State next. Knowing that'll likely result in loss, I believe that they're going to be a little extra hungry to 'salvage' the homestand with a victory.
Wizards vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -6
Oklahoma City has won three straight with Russell Westbrook recording a triple-double in each one plus the Thunder's backup guard, Anthony Morrow, has made 13 of 19 shots the last two games while averaging 17.5 points. Westbrook finished with 27 points, 18 rebounds and 14 assists and Enes Kanter also scored 27 points with 10 reboounds in a 112-103 win at New York on Monday. The Thunder shot 50.0 percent from the field and held the Knicks to 39.6 percent. Washington had to go overtime to defeat Sacramento 101-95 with Bradley Beal scoring 31 points and John Wall adding 19 points. Wall is probable tonight with a knee injury. Oklahoma City has won and covered the last three meetings and the Wizards are 0-4 ATS after an ATS win. Washington is 1-5 straight up and 2-4 ATS on the road this season.
PHOENIX +193 over Atlanta
We?re approaching this one from a couple of compelling narratives. First off, Phoenix holds advantages over Atlanta in many key statistics that are worth focusing on. The Suns turn the ball over less than Atlanta and commit fewer errors. In addition, Phoenix is better overall on the boards than Atlanta and they are also far more proficient from the charity stripe. In fact, Atlanta is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the league, as they are ranked 29th. While arguments can be made against Phoenix by virtue of their typically porous defense, Atlanta?s inability to close out games gives Phoenix?s high-powered offense second and third chances, which allows them to hang around and also gives them a belief they can win outright. The Suns also feature a dynamic backcourt in Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker. While the Suns may have fallen at home to the Nuggets in their last contest, the Bledsoe/Booker combination amassed 65 points between the two of them, as well as nine boards, 10 assists and three steals. Not too shabby for a couple of overlooked wing men playing on a maligned franchise.
Golden State games attract a ton of interest and huge viewing audiences so all those folks saw Atlanta go into Golden State on Monday as a 14-point dog and come within a fraction of pulling off the upset. Atlanta played a near flawless game and they also played their hearts out for 48 minutes. After playing in Golden State like it was the 7th game of a playoff series, we?re suggesting that the Hawks ?blew their load? on Monday and will have little left for the Suns. It is also the last of a five-game trip for the Hawks so they have to be even more spent. While Atlanta stands at 10-8, the Hawks have gone 1-6 in their last seven, falling in five or their last six on the road. Atlanta bodes fairly decent defensive numbers but their offense is virtually non-existent. Atlanta?s impressive frontcourt, which features the likes of Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard poses problems for teams all the time but that does not play into the Suns inefficiencies. Phoenix will rarely even attempt to make the focal point of their strategy points in the paint. The Suns will keep it academic and place the rock in the hands of their snipers (Bledsoe and Booker) and attack from the perimeter. Situationally speaking, this is as good as it gets for a dangerous dog in their own barn and while the points are appealing, we?re moving in aggressively with the Suns outright.
New Hampshire vs. Providence
Play: New Hampshire +13
New Hampshire won't be too intimidated playing on the road after winning at Temple and Winthrop already this season. They play some solid defense and will need it in what could be a low scoring affair. New Hampshire is facing Providence who is holding teams to just 57.7 points per game. The Wildcats have some size and are led by Tanner Leissner who is coming off a 31 point performance in their win over Detroit. Providence is coming off a 1-1 time in Destin, Florida and has a home game against Rhode Island next. I think the spot means a decent play for the road team in this one.
Marshall +1
Marshall gets Ryan Taylor back from suspension. Not that having him against Ohio State wouldn't have made a huge difference, but against Ohio it certainly will. He was suspended by Coach D'Antoni after he was ejected in the Jackson State game for arguing with refs about fouls. Why bother arguing against Jackson State is yet another question, but he is an inside presence that shot over 60% from the floor last season. And last season Marshall was hammered by Ohio, and in that game Marshall sent Ohio to the line 31 times and shot 5-22 from behind the arc. Ohio is your typical fire-away from deep type of team which I don't like to back away from their own gym. Marshall gets to the line and has shot well from the stripe (see Valpo win last night) - so, revenge, Ryan back, better FT shooting, at home, more ways to score, and more experience. To just win the game.
New Hampshire vs. Providence
Play: Over 127
The Friars have seen all six of their games result in unders this season but this certainly looks like the game that will put an end to that streak. Providence is off of a 63 to 52 loss versus Virginia Saturday and the Friars are 6-0 to the over the last 6 times they've been held to 59 points or less in a game. Also, in games with a posted total in the 120 to 129.5 range, the long-term totals record for Providence is 13-4 to the over. The Friars have a big game on deck with in-state rival Rhode Island for Saturday and, as a result, I would not be surprised to see the defensive intensity lacking some in this one. New Hampshire has had some ugly performances on offense this season but after their worst one of the season, the Wildcats have responded with back to back wins and have averaged 75.5 points per game in the process of securing those two wins. With New Hampshire riding a 2-game winning streak and the Friars focusing on offense after a dismal effort on that end of the floor against the Mountaineers Saturday, I look for this one to easily eclipse the low number.
SOUTHERN UTAH +9.5
I?m big on looking for intangibles when sizing up potential wagers. There?s a big one in play tonight as UNLV hits the road for the first time as the Rebels make the short trip to Cedar City to face the Thunderbirds.
UNLV has the better talent here, not much argument about that. But it is the initial road game after six straight at home and that can be a challenge regardless of the opponent.
Southern Utah is very limited in terms of personnel. The Thunderbirds have been a losing program for ages. Their last winning season was way back in 2006-07 and they?re going to likely be toward the bottom of the Big Sky again this year.
But here?s where the intangibles come in. Todd Simon is now the coach at Southern Utah after being the interim head guy for the Rebels last season after Dave Rice departed the scene. Simon certainly would have liked to become the full time coach here in Las Vegas, but the school decided to go in another direction.
I can pretty much guarantee that if there?s one game Simon would absolutely love to win this season, it?s tonight?s game against the Runnin? Rebels.
Whether Southern Utah has enough to stay with UNLV for the full 40 remains to be seen. But I?m convinced this team will be ultra-fired up for the game and I suspect the visiting Rebels might get more than they bargained for tonight in Cedar City. I?m looking at taking the points with the Thunderbirds.
St. Mary's vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford +3?
Stanford (6-1) is at home tonight against St. Mary's (5-0). Stanford should not be receiving points at home, where they crush their opponent by an average of 17.3 points per game. St. Mary's is undefeated after only just 5 games and have played sub-par opponents. Do not allow their record to fool you. This Stanford team plays incredible defense, holding their opponents to only 59.7 points per game. Stanford will shut St. Mary's down and get the win in their building.
North Carolina at Indiana
Play: Indiana +4
With James Blackmon upgraded to probable and NCAA Tournament revenge in effect, I'll take a look at supporting Indiana as a home underdog against North Carolina this evening. The Hoosiers aren't without deficiencies, most notably on the defensive end. A big key to tonight's game is how Indiana handles UNC on the interior. If Thomas Bryant gets into foul trouble, it really puts pressure on the Hoosiers' offense to perform at an ultra-high level. North Carolina looked impressive in its run to the Maui Invitational title. They however had a rather easy path by drawing Chaminade in the first round, and undersized Oklahoma State team in the semifinals and offensively challenged Wisconsin in the title game. Loaded with athletes and depth (no player is currently averaging more than 30 minutes per game) it was the perfect set up and they obviously took advantage. Now, UNC must go on the road to face a top-tier offense at a very tough venue. Last season, in their only two non-conference road games, North Carolina lost outright to Northern Iowa and Texas. In last year's tournament, the Tar Heels played nearly the perfect game against IU: 1.42 points per possession, 11-of-20 from three, and 26-of-33 from the charity stripe. Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige -- who have since graduated -- combined or 41 points. UNC closed that game as a -5 favorite and is now laying -4. They deserve to be favorites but I think there's enoug
San Jose vs. Los Angeles
Pick: San Jose
The Sharks know that the SAP Center in San Jose is their official home ice, but they must feel like their "unofficial" home is the Staples Center in Los Angeles. That's because the Sharks have been deadlier in L.A. recently than they have been just about anywhere else. The Sharks have won each of the last five meetings here at Staples, and that includes all three games here in last Spring's first playoff round. Of course, winning on enemy ice is nothing new for the Sharks, who sported the best road record of any team in the NHL Last season at 28-13. These two division rivals have almost identical records on the season so far, making this a critical contest as both the Kings and Sharks try to keep pace with the Oilers in the Pacific Division. For the Kings, goalie Peter Budaj has done a nice job of filling in for superstar Jonathan Quick, who will be out for three months with a strained groin. But Budaj is still a 34-year-old journeyman who last carried the load in net for an NHL team six years ago when he was a member of the Colorado Avalanche. The Sharks are 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
San Jose +118 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. The Kings want this one badly. Los Angeles not only lost to San Jose in last year?s playoffs, they lost in five games and looked like they didn?t belong on the same ice as the Sharks for long stretches during that series. In what was being billed as a great battle between evenly matched teams, it wasn?t close. To add more misery to the Kings? plight, these two met on opening night and San Jose won that one too. Yes indeed, Los Angeles wants redemption here in a bad way.
That brings us to Pittsburgh?s domination over San Jose in last year?s final. Boy oh boy did San Jose ever want redemption for the humiliation that the Penguins put them through in the Cup final. The Penguins didn?t just win that series, they abused the Sharks in much the same way that San Jose abused the Kings. Well, San Jose didn?t have to wait long for a chance at redemption when the NHL scheduled two early games this season between Pittsburgh and San Jose. Desperately wanting to beat Pittsburgh, San Jose lost both times while getting outscored 8-2 in those two games. The point is, when a team has the blueprint to beat another team, it?s a psychological advantage that is twofold. For one, the team that keeps winning knows they can win while the team that keeps losing is mentally beaten before the puck even drops. So put this one in the same category as Pittsburgh over San Jose. The Kings cannot beat the Sharks and aside from all that, San Jose is simply the better team.
08:05 PM NBA [508] Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 -155 (B+2)
08:35 PM NBA [513] San Antonio Spurs -9.5 -105
10:05 PM NBA [520] Portland Trail Blazers -7.5 -110
07:10 PM CBB [536] Louisville -6.5 -103
08:00 PM CBB [558] Arkansas State -5.5 -150 (B+2)
08:30 PM CBB [560] Depaul -8.5 -110
08:05 PM NHL [1] Pittsburgh Penguins -185
10:35 PM NHL [6] Los Angeles Kings -122
1 unit bet pays 178....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Knicks vs. Wolves
Play: Wolves -3?
The Minnesota Timberwolves have the statistical profile of a .500 team despite their 5-12 record. They are only getting outscored by 0.9 points per game on the season. They problem is that they have dominated in the first half, but they haven't been able to close out games in the second half. They've already lost four times in which they led by at least 15 points.
I think the Timberwolves will come out with a chip on their shoulder tonight at home against the New York Knicks while finally putting together 48-minute game. They are clearly undervalued right now due to their record, and I believe it's about time to start backing them because of it.
The New York Knicks have been awful on the road this season. They are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS on the road compared to 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS at home. The Knicks are getting outscored by an average of 11.4 points per game on the road. They are giving up 111.7 points per game away from home as well. Minnesota is outscoring opponents by 5.9 points per game at home.
Tom Thibodeau is 46-23 ATS off a home loss in all games he has coached. The Timberwolves are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Miami vs. Denver
Pick: Miami +6.5
The Denver Nuggets put together some strong teams over a five year period from 2008-2012. They became one of the top home courts in the NBA, going 205-55 SU. The team began to decline, and with it their home court no longer had any advantage, in fact it has been a disadvantage. Since the start of the 2013 season, the Nuggets have been below .500 at home at 62-69 SU. More importantly they have been a woeful 57-73-1 ATS, and just 26-37 ATS as a home favorite (13-26 ATS to a line of more than -4). The Heat have not played well enough to win, but since election day, they have lost just one game on the road by more than seven points, and have been competitive.
In the Sights, Wednesday NBA?
One of the prime concepts across all sports is something that does not come up nearly enough, but works well when it does ? many bad teams are even worse than they appear to be, but get breaks on the scoreboards and in the box scores because the opposition doesn?t take them seriously. Dallas is currently one such team, but the Spurs will take the Mavericks seriously tonight, especially in the early stages, and that leads to #513 San Antonio First Half (8:35 Eastern), with -4.5 easy to find in the morning trading, and this one good to -5.
First to set the scoreboard/statistical stage, the struggling Mavs will show a solid result at San Antonio last week, only falling 96-91. One shouldn?t attach much merit to it, with Gregg Popovich using the game as the opportunity to give LaMarcus Aldridge and Tony Parker an evening off, which goes back to the base concept. But tonight?s focus will be much different. The Spurs were bad in so many different ways last night ? season high turnovers, season high shooting percentage allowed, season low of points, etc. ? that this becomes an evening in which the whip gets cracked, and given how well San Antonio has played on the road this season, a 10-0 SU and 7-2-1 ATS, both spread losses coming by a half point, this is an easy team to trust.
There is a classical inside/out for this one, a favorite that just lost outright vs. an underdog that just won a game outright, those last two outcomes falling 40 points off of the market projections (old friend Marc L. would call it a "DBO 40"), which will bring reversals of pendulums on their own. But when it is a favorite with the pride that San Antonio brings, that makes it even better. My interest will not be in the full game, since Popovich does not have a compelling reason to get the final margin into double figures, but I do expect the Spurs to throw hard punches in the early stages.
Spurs -8?
I have no problem laying a big number on the road with the Spurs against the Mavericks. San Antonio will be in a foul mood Wednesday, as they had their 9-game winning streak snapped at home against the Magic of all teams. The Spurs simply didn't have it, as they shot just 36.8% (28-76) from the field and a mere 25% (5-20) from 3-point range. They were also sloppy with the ball, committing a season-high 18 turnovers.
No Spurs player played more than 32 minutes, so we should see a full roster from SA tonight. Even if Popovich decides to rest some players, this Mavs team is one they can beat by double-digits with their reserves. Dallas comes in off a surprising 91-81 win over the Pelicans, but are still a mere 3-13 on the season, scoring just 91.5 ppg.
These two teams recently played in San Antonio on 11/21. The Spurs won 96-91, but if you remember that was the game where Popovich blasted his players for how poorly they played in the win. That's going to only add more fuel to the fire here for San Antonio, who comes in a perfect 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS on the road this season.
Spurs are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 or more points, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing on 0 days of rest. Mavs are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after covering the number in their last contest.
Heat vs. Nuggets
Play: Nuggets -6
Denver is a team on the rise. Miami is a team on the decline. Look for that to play out in today's game.
The Heat will be missing key contributors Dion Waiters and Justice Winslow as they open a three-game road trip. Miami is 5-12 because its talent level is way down. Not having those two injured players further weakens the Heat.
Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic are the Heat's only two good players and both of them are dealing with injuries. Neither is 100 percent. The rest of the Heat players are backup quality.
The Nuggets, by contrast, are getting healthier. They are expected to get back Danilo Gallinari, their best offensive player, spark plug Will Barton and Juancho Hernangomez.
Denver's strength is its rebounding with big men Kenneth Faried, Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nukic. This is going to be a tough matchup for Whiteside, who has a sore knee.
The Nuggets have had two days of rest and preparation. They have covered four of the past five times when having two days off. Denver has taken care of business at home recently. The Nuggets have defeated the Suns by 16 points, Jazz by 14 and Bulls by three while losing to the Raptors in overtime and Thunder in overtime during their past five home games.
The Heat are a much lesser foe than the Bulls, Raptors, Thunder and Jazz. So look for the Nuggets to follow their pattern and beat the Heat by a comfortable margin.
Pacers vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -7?
The Blazers have been a major early season disappointment. After finishing with the #5 seed in the West last year, Portland is just 9-10 SU, 6-13 ATS to open the new campaign. That includes six losses in their last eight games. Twice in their last three contests, the Blazers have allowed their opponent to score 130+ against them!
Less than 12 hours following the latest loss ? at home against Houston on Sunday ? head coach Terry Stotts had his team back on the practice floor. All Star point guard Damian Lillard: ?This is the first time we've had a real practice in what seems like forever. It was good for us to try to sharpen up, (to have) coaches challenge us. It's to the point now where our pride has to kick in. We have to show how much we actually care about ... being better defensively."
Lillard continued: "We scored 125 points against Cleveland. That's a lot of points to score and not win a game. Right now, we're not getting it done on the defensive end. That's what it comes down to.?
Shooting guard Allen Crabbe concurred: ?We keep preaching it, but it's getting old. At some point, it has to click. We keep telling ourselves we have to get better, but at some point, we have to get it going."
This is clearly a ?maximum intensity? game for the home favorite. That?s not the case for the road underdog. Indiana is coming off back-2-back very satisfying home wins over the Clippers and Nets, holding LA to a season low 70 points in a 21 point blowout on Sunday. They?re playing without their All Star, Paul George, and key role player CJ Miles, both listed as ?out? for tonight. They don?t play again after tonight until Sunday in LA ? they?ve got a much needed break on deck; rarely a good thing for an NBA underdog.
The kicker here is Indiana?s own defensive issues. The Pacers have had one consistent bugaboo in early season play ? an inability to stop quicker guards from dribble penetration, getting good looks in the paint for themselves and their teammates. The likes of Monte Ellis, Ron Stuckey and Aaron Brooks are not defensive stoppers. The Blazers backcourt duo of Lillard and CJ McCollum are as good a dribble penetrating duo as you?ll find in the league. That gives the Blazers a matchup edge to go along with their situational edge in a game they?re primed to win by margin!
Indiana vs. Portland
Pick: Portland
The 9-9 Indiana Pacers open a five-game road trip in Portland, one which which won?t end until Dec 9 in Dallas. The 9-10 Portland Blazers will be taking the court off a 130-114 thumping at the hands the Rockets this past Sunday, a game in which Houston connected on 56.1 percent from the floor, including 17 of 36 on threes.
The Blazers are tired of talking about getting better at the defensive end. "We keep preaching it, but it's getting old," guard Allen Crabbe said. "At some point, it has to click. We keep telling ourselves we have to get better, but at some point, we have to get it going." However, here?s the rub, they?ve had trouble stopping anybody. Portland owns the worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA (109.80) and is giving up more points (113.7 PPG) than any team in the league other than the Brooklyn Nets (114.0). Cleveland blitzed them for 137 points, Golden State for 127, Houston for 126 and 130, even Phoenix for 121. "We talked about not taking steps back," head coach Nate McMillan said. "We've played some good games, and then you can't recognize the team the next game. We need to build some momentum at this point in the season."
The Pacers lost the first two games of a four-game homestand but then routed the Nets 118-97 and stunned the Clippers, 90-71! Was it good defense or did the Clippers just shoot poorly? LA connected on just 31.4 percent from the floor, including 4 of 24 on threes. The Pacers? recent back-to-back home wins came without the services of star forward Paul George (20.8-6.9-3.5), who has missed six of the past seven games and will also sit out Wednesday's contest with ankle and back injuries. The 6-11 Myles Turner (14.7-7.6) has stepped up in just his second season and is ably backed up by veteran Al Jefferson (7.0-4.4). The trade for PG Jeff Teague (14.6-6.8 APG) has been a good one plus the Pacers have a trio of players capable of scoring in SF Miles (13.0), PF Young (12.1-6.1) and SG Ellis (10.6-3.7-4.2). The current bad news is that like George, Miles won?t play here.
Portland guards Lillard (28.2) and McCollum (22.3) are the second-highest scoring duo in the NBA (next to Durant and Curry) but only only SF Harkless (12.7) joins them in double digits. Still, Portland is one of the NBA?s best offensive teams, ranking third with 109.7 PPG and the Pacers are 1-5 SU & ATS on the road primarily because they can?t stop teams from scoring away from home, allowing 114.7 PPG. Lay the points with the Blazers.
Hawks vs. Suns
Play: Suns +6
While Phoenix may not be the most intimidating venue in the league, I don't feel the Hawks deserve to be laying this many points here. At least, not the way that they're currently playing. Atlanta, which is playing the final leg of a 5-game trip, has just one win in its past seven games. Having been away for some time, including through Thanksgiving, it may be easy to get caught thinking about the return trip home. For the season, the Hawks are now 4-6 SU/ATS away from Atlanta.
The Suns may be only 1-3 their last four games. However, only one of those four games resulted in a loss of greater than six points. Off a 120-114 setback last time out, note that they're 10-3 ATS the last 13 times that they'd allowed 105 or more points in their previous game. The Suns will be playing the third game of a 3-game homestand. Prior to that, they'd played six straight on the road. After this, they get a couple days off, before playing at Golden State next. Knowing that'll likely result in loss, I believe that they're going to be a little extra hungry to 'salvage' the homestand with a victory.
Wizards vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -6
Oklahoma City has won three straight with Russell Westbrook recording a triple-double in each one plus the Thunder's backup guard, Anthony Morrow, has made 13 of 19 shots the last two games while averaging 17.5 points. Westbrook finished with 27 points, 18 rebounds and 14 assists and Enes Kanter also scored 27 points with 10 reboounds in a 112-103 win at New York on Monday. The Thunder shot 50.0 percent from the field and held the Knicks to 39.6 percent. Washington had to go overtime to defeat Sacramento 101-95 with Bradley Beal scoring 31 points and John Wall adding 19 points. Wall is probable tonight with a knee injury. Oklahoma City has won and covered the last three meetings and the Wizards are 0-4 ATS after an ATS win. Washington is 1-5 straight up and 2-4 ATS on the road this season.
PHOENIX +193 over Atlanta
We?re approaching this one from a couple of compelling narratives. First off, Phoenix holds advantages over Atlanta in many key statistics that are worth focusing on. The Suns turn the ball over less than Atlanta and commit fewer errors. In addition, Phoenix is better overall on the boards than Atlanta and they are also far more proficient from the charity stripe. In fact, Atlanta is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the league, as they are ranked 29th. While arguments can be made against Phoenix by virtue of their typically porous defense, Atlanta?s inability to close out games gives Phoenix?s high-powered offense second and third chances, which allows them to hang around and also gives them a belief they can win outright. The Suns also feature a dynamic backcourt in Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker. While the Suns may have fallen at home to the Nuggets in their last contest, the Bledsoe/Booker combination amassed 65 points between the two of them, as well as nine boards, 10 assists and three steals. Not too shabby for a couple of overlooked wing men playing on a maligned franchise.
Golden State games attract a ton of interest and huge viewing audiences so all those folks saw Atlanta go into Golden State on Monday as a 14-point dog and come within a fraction of pulling off the upset. Atlanta played a near flawless game and they also played their hearts out for 48 minutes. After playing in Golden State like it was the 7th game of a playoff series, we?re suggesting that the Hawks ?blew their load? on Monday and will have little left for the Suns. It is also the last of a five-game trip for the Hawks so they have to be even more spent. While Atlanta stands at 10-8, the Hawks have gone 1-6 in their last seven, falling in five or their last six on the road. Atlanta bodes fairly decent defensive numbers but their offense is virtually non-existent. Atlanta?s impressive frontcourt, which features the likes of Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard poses problems for teams all the time but that does not play into the Suns inefficiencies. Phoenix will rarely even attempt to make the focal point of their strategy points in the paint. The Suns will keep it academic and place the rock in the hands of their snipers (Bledsoe and Booker) and attack from the perimeter. Situationally speaking, this is as good as it gets for a dangerous dog in their own barn and while the points are appealing, we?re moving in aggressively with the Suns outright.
New Hampshire vs. Providence
Play: New Hampshire +13
New Hampshire won't be too intimidated playing on the road after winning at Temple and Winthrop already this season. They play some solid defense and will need it in what could be a low scoring affair. New Hampshire is facing Providence who is holding teams to just 57.7 points per game. The Wildcats have some size and are led by Tanner Leissner who is coming off a 31 point performance in their win over Detroit. Providence is coming off a 1-1 time in Destin, Florida and has a home game against Rhode Island next. I think the spot means a decent play for the road team in this one.
Marshall +1
Marshall gets Ryan Taylor back from suspension. Not that having him against Ohio State wouldn't have made a huge difference, but against Ohio it certainly will. He was suspended by Coach D'Antoni after he was ejected in the Jackson State game for arguing with refs about fouls. Why bother arguing against Jackson State is yet another question, but he is an inside presence that shot over 60% from the floor last season. And last season Marshall was hammered by Ohio, and in that game Marshall sent Ohio to the line 31 times and shot 5-22 from behind the arc. Ohio is your typical fire-away from deep type of team which I don't like to back away from their own gym. Marshall gets to the line and has shot well from the stripe (see Valpo win last night) - so, revenge, Ryan back, better FT shooting, at home, more ways to score, and more experience. To just win the game.
New Hampshire vs. Providence
Play: Over 127
The Friars have seen all six of their games result in unders this season but this certainly looks like the game that will put an end to that streak. Providence is off of a 63 to 52 loss versus Virginia Saturday and the Friars are 6-0 to the over the last 6 times they've been held to 59 points or less in a game. Also, in games with a posted total in the 120 to 129.5 range, the long-term totals record for Providence is 13-4 to the over. The Friars have a big game on deck with in-state rival Rhode Island for Saturday and, as a result, I would not be surprised to see the defensive intensity lacking some in this one. New Hampshire has had some ugly performances on offense this season but after their worst one of the season, the Wildcats have responded with back to back wins and have averaged 75.5 points per game in the process of securing those two wins. With New Hampshire riding a 2-game winning streak and the Friars focusing on offense after a dismal effort on that end of the floor against the Mountaineers Saturday, I look for this one to easily eclipse the low number.
SOUTHERN UTAH +9.5
I?m big on looking for intangibles when sizing up potential wagers. There?s a big one in play tonight as UNLV hits the road for the first time as the Rebels make the short trip to Cedar City to face the Thunderbirds.
UNLV has the better talent here, not much argument about that. But it is the initial road game after six straight at home and that can be a challenge regardless of the opponent.
Southern Utah is very limited in terms of personnel. The Thunderbirds have been a losing program for ages. Their last winning season was way back in 2006-07 and they?re going to likely be toward the bottom of the Big Sky again this year.
But here?s where the intangibles come in. Todd Simon is now the coach at Southern Utah after being the interim head guy for the Rebels last season after Dave Rice departed the scene. Simon certainly would have liked to become the full time coach here in Las Vegas, but the school decided to go in another direction.
I can pretty much guarantee that if there?s one game Simon would absolutely love to win this season, it?s tonight?s game against the Runnin? Rebels.
Whether Southern Utah has enough to stay with UNLV for the full 40 remains to be seen. But I?m convinced this team will be ultra-fired up for the game and I suspect the visiting Rebels might get more than they bargained for tonight in Cedar City. I?m looking at taking the points with the Thunderbirds.
St. Mary's vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford +3?
Stanford (6-1) is at home tonight against St. Mary's (5-0). Stanford should not be receiving points at home, where they crush their opponent by an average of 17.3 points per game. St. Mary's is undefeated after only just 5 games and have played sub-par opponents. Do not allow their record to fool you. This Stanford team plays incredible defense, holding their opponents to only 59.7 points per game. Stanford will shut St. Mary's down and get the win in their building.
North Carolina at Indiana
Play: Indiana +4
With James Blackmon upgraded to probable and NCAA Tournament revenge in effect, I'll take a look at supporting Indiana as a home underdog against North Carolina this evening. The Hoosiers aren't without deficiencies, most notably on the defensive end. A big key to tonight's game is how Indiana handles UNC on the interior. If Thomas Bryant gets into foul trouble, it really puts pressure on the Hoosiers' offense to perform at an ultra-high level. North Carolina looked impressive in its run to the Maui Invitational title. They however had a rather easy path by drawing Chaminade in the first round, and undersized Oklahoma State team in the semifinals and offensively challenged Wisconsin in the title game. Loaded with athletes and depth (no player is currently averaging more than 30 minutes per game) it was the perfect set up and they obviously took advantage. Now, UNC must go on the road to face a top-tier offense at a very tough venue. Last season, in their only two non-conference road games, North Carolina lost outright to Northern Iowa and Texas. In last year's tournament, the Tar Heels played nearly the perfect game against IU: 1.42 points per possession, 11-of-20 from three, and 26-of-33 from the charity stripe. Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige -- who have since graduated -- combined or 41 points. UNC closed that game as a -5 favorite and is now laying -4. They deserve to be favorites but I think there's enoug
San Jose vs. Los Angeles
Pick: San Jose
The Sharks know that the SAP Center in San Jose is their official home ice, but they must feel like their "unofficial" home is the Staples Center in Los Angeles. That's because the Sharks have been deadlier in L.A. recently than they have been just about anywhere else. The Sharks have won each of the last five meetings here at Staples, and that includes all three games here in last Spring's first playoff round. Of course, winning on enemy ice is nothing new for the Sharks, who sported the best road record of any team in the NHL Last season at 28-13. These two division rivals have almost identical records on the season so far, making this a critical contest as both the Kings and Sharks try to keep pace with the Oilers in the Pacific Division. For the Kings, goalie Peter Budaj has done a nice job of filling in for superstar Jonathan Quick, who will be out for three months with a strained groin. But Budaj is still a 34-year-old journeyman who last carried the load in net for an NHL team six years ago when he was a member of the Colorado Avalanche. The Sharks are 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
San Jose +118 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. The Kings want this one badly. Los Angeles not only lost to San Jose in last year?s playoffs, they lost in five games and looked like they didn?t belong on the same ice as the Sharks for long stretches during that series. In what was being billed as a great battle between evenly matched teams, it wasn?t close. To add more misery to the Kings? plight, these two met on opening night and San Jose won that one too. Yes indeed, Los Angeles wants redemption here in a bad way.
That brings us to Pittsburgh?s domination over San Jose in last year?s final. Boy oh boy did San Jose ever want redemption for the humiliation that the Penguins put them through in the Cup final. The Penguins didn?t just win that series, they abused the Sharks in much the same way that San Jose abused the Kings. Well, San Jose didn?t have to wait long for a chance at redemption when the NHL scheduled two early games this season between Pittsburgh and San Jose. Desperately wanting to beat Pittsburgh, San Jose lost both times while getting outscored 8-2 in those two games. The point is, when a team has the blueprint to beat another team, it?s a psychological advantage that is twofold. For one, the team that keeps winning knows they can win while the team that keeps losing is mentally beaten before the puck even drops. So put this one in the same category as Pittsburgh over San Jose. The Kings cannot beat the Sharks and aside from all that, San Jose is simply the better team.
