09:00 PM CFB [218] TOTAL u57-110 (BYU vrs Wyoming)
07:35 PM NBA [704] Detroit Pistons -6.5 -110
09:05 PM NBA [711] TOTAL o228-110 (Houston Rockets vrs Phoenix Suns)
10:05 PM NBA [716] Portland Trail Blazers -6.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB [719] Kentucky -2-105
09:00 PM CBB [744] Boise State -13-110
08:05 PM NHL [52] TOTAL u5+105 (Washington Capitals vrs Philadelphia Flyers)
09:35 PM NHL [54] Arizona Coyotes +145
1 unit bet pays 247 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Milwaukee Bucks +6
The Milwaukee Bucks want revenge from a 108-114 (OT) loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers at home last night. They don't have to wait long to get their chance as these teams will be playing again tonight in this home-and-home spot. I always like backing the team that lost the first game in these situations, and we're getting a nice value here with the Bucks. The Cavs are going to be without JR Smith and could be without Kevin Love, who is questionable. It also wouldn't surprise me if they ended up resting Lebron James, or limiting his minutes at the very least. The Bucks have a young roster than can handle this back-to-backs better than the Cavs. Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. The Bucks are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 meetings in Cleveland.
PHOENIX +6? over Houston
The resurgence of the Houston Rockets has been one of the premier storylines in the NBA thus far. Currently, the Rockets sit at 21-8 while boasting one of the best records in the Western Conference behind the incumbent powerhouses Golden State, San Antonio and the Clippers of Los Angeles. Houston?s stock was ballooning as they entered their contest with the San Antonio Spurs last night on a 10-game winning streak while absolutely obliterating many opponents they came across previous to their encounter with the Spurs. Though Houston lost 102-100 last night against its cross-state foes, the Rockets scored brownie points with their effort and with the result. Taking a team that lost just one-game on the road this year the distance before falling by a mere basket does not lower one?s stock. The Rockets showed that their record is no farce and while this outfit may be talented in their own right, you have to question the status of their physical and mental state as they go into Phoenix on the tail end of a back-to-back.
Phoenix will enter this one as the fresher team. The Suns have not played in two days and have had to time to lick their wounds from falling on the road at Minnesota on Monday. The Suns have one of the most dynamic offenses in all of the NBA but they stand at 8-20 because their defense cannot hold a lead. The Suns have some premier talent in guards Eric Bledsoe and Devin Knight and an absolute beast off the bench in sixth man Brandon Knight. All three will be available in this one and if this trio gets hot, it?s going to be big trouble for this visitor. Phoenix has split the last four in this series between these two Southwest combatants and they own the most recent win in Houston in April of this year. Phoenix will enter this one confident and juiced up while Houston may be fatigued and a bit disparaged after last night?s hard-fought loss. Situationally speaking, this is a favorable spot for the host and it sure doesn?t hurt that the Rockets are just one of those teams that the Suns are very comfortable playing.
Grizzlies vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons -6
Take the Pistons here tonight as the Grizzlies are coming off a heart breaking loss in OT against the Celtics last night. This Pistons team will be extra motivated as they were blown out last game vs the Bulls. Their coach Van Gundy was all over them after that game so you can expect a huge effort from them tonight. Grizzlies are just 3-9 ATS L12 road games playing a team with a winning home record.
Oklahoma City vs. New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans
Russell Westbrook finished just shy of his 51st career triple-double in a tough 110-108 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Monday, scoring 46 points to go with 11 rebounds and seven assists. Westbrook is averaging 30.9 points (first in the NBA), 10.9 assists (second) and 10.5 rebounds (13th). He is the second player in NBA history, behind Oscar Robertson in the early 1960s, to average more than 30 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists through the first 28 games of an NBA season. However, the Thunder are a modest 16-12 on the seaon, going 13-14 ATS .
The Pelicans also own one the the NBA?s elite players in Anthony Davis (29.6 & 11.1) but they are just 10-20 overall, going 14-16 ATS. However, it should be noted that after opening 0-8 and then 2-10, the Pelicans have been a near-.500 team, going 8-10 SU and 9-9 ATS. The return of PG Holiday has helped, as the Pelicans are 8-7 in the 15 games he?s played this season, with Holiday averaging 14.4 PPG and 6.2 APG. Davis recorded 31 points and 16 rebounds to lead New Orleans to a 108-93 road win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday, so this is a back-to-back situation for them.
OKC last played Monday in that two-point home loss to the Hawks and earlier this year, defeated the Pelicans 101-92 in Oklahoma City back on Dec. 4, with Westbrook recording his fifth consecutive triple-double (28 points, 17 rebounds and 12 assists However, SG Victor Oladipo (14.6) is expected to miss his fifth consecutive game with a wrist injury and he will be missed, because he?s OKC?s only other perimeter scorer other than Westbrook. The center duo of Kanter (12.5-5.8 ) and Adams (11.6 & 7.6) join Westbrook and Oladipo in double figures.
The Thunder have not been anything special on the road and are just 2-3 ATS as a road favorite, with one of those ATS wins coming in OT. Meanwhile, since opening 2-10 to start the season, the Pelicans are 6-3 ATS at home since Nov 18. Take the home team.
Vanderbilt vs. Dayton
Play: Vanderbilt +8
The Flyers couldn't make a shot in the first half against Northwestern last time out. While they fought hard to get back in the game over the final 20 minutes, Dayton still came up short. The Flyers have not bounced back well off a SU loss, covering just one of their last seven in this spot. They face a Vanderbilt team that struggled inside the arc at times this season, but we have seen Luke Kornet finally snap out of his cold streak. The Commodores are one of the top teams in the nation (31st) in 3-point accuracy, while also making 78% of their FTA. We believe those two key categories will come into play in what we believe will be a close game. Look for Vandy to hang the number.
Western Michigan vs. UCLA
Pick: Western Michigan
I know this is a hold your nose type of play but I have reasoning behind it and will be making a small play on the Western Michigan Broncos. I?ll start off by saying we are getting a ton of points, close to 30. Western Michigan got out on the West Coast Sunday when they played at Washington, so they should be comfortable already in this part of the region. For UCLA, I can?t say anything bad about them. The Bruins rank 1st in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Kenpom. They haven?t shown any signs of letting up, BUT I think this is a spot where it?s a lot more likely. The reason is conference play starts next week. This is their last game before it kicks off. Their opponent when PAC 12 conference play starts? It is a double revenge game vs Oregon. I think that look ahead spot can factor into them not covering this big spread, the largest one on the board tonight.
The Bruins have covered 9 straight games. The oddsmaker is being forced to raise the line. There is a time where there is value on the underdog. I will take my chances here. Western Michigan gave Villanova a run for their money earlier this season before losing by 13. They have two players in Thomas Wilder and Tucker Haymond that I think can keep them within this number. Wilder has a sweet stroke and Haymond is the team?s lone senior having a bounceback season.
Again, no knocks on UCLA, I just see this number being too big. We should see a final score in the 23-24 point range.
Virginia at Cal
Pick: Under
Virginia brings its great defense on the the road for head coach Tony Bennett. Virginia is 11-1 under the total on the road, on a 17-8 run under overall. Cal is home playing tough defense allowing 59, 59, 51, 60, 61 and 55 the last six contests. Virginia is 1-0 all-time vs. California, posting a 63-62 overtime win in Charlottesville last season.
Northern Iowa at North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -17.5
Northern Iowa has been a wretched shooting team knocking down just over 40% of its attempts. Where they've been much better however has been from beyond the arc where they convert at a near 38% clip (#90). Limited scoring will be taking place down low against UNC?s bigs, so it will be up to the sharpshooters to keep this one interesting. If they fall, UNI won't get embarrassed. If they aren't, it'll be blowout city!
This is a rematch of last year?s meeting held in Cedar Falls, IA where the Panthers upset the Tar Heels 71-67 as 6.5 point underdogs. Washpun played an integral role in helping lead the Panthers to the outright upset, but he won?t even be in the building this time around. In his absence, Jeremy Morgan must step up. If not, UNI is going to have a whale of a time attempting to not get blown off the court.
UNC has already covered -21 and -15.5 point spreads on its hardwood, and linemakers are making you eat a ton of chalk to back them in this spot as well. North Carolina simply has way too much offense for Northern Iowa to contend with, and the fact that it?s going to get killed on the glass has me optimistically laying the heavy chalk with the home team in the rematch.
Kentucky at Louisville
Play: Louisville +1
There are two days that you circle on your calendar if you live in Kentucky and that is the first Saturday in May for the Derby and when Louisville and Kentucky play basketball. This game is so big that the NCAA Championship trophy will be on display. Kentucky leads the all-time series 34-15 and has won 4 straight while covering 5 in a row. During the 4 game UK win streak the Wildcats won as a 1 and 5 point favorite the last 2 games and as a 4.5 and 1 pt underdog the previous two.
The Wildcats are now 10-1 and the month of December may feel like March as they hosted and lost to UCLA, hosted Valpo and then in what very well be the game of the year beat North Carolina 103-100 last Saturday in Las Vegas. Kentucky?s high scoring offense which averages 95 PPG is led by 3 freshman and a sophomore with Malik Monk leading the way with 21.9 PPG, followed by De?Aaron Fox (15.9), Isaiah Bruce (15.9) and Edrice Adebayo (12.6). Monk threw his hat into the MVP race in Vegas by scoring 47 points hitting 18 of 28 FG?s and making 8 of 12 from 3 point land.
Louisville is also 10-1 with a 66-63 loss against Baylor in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. The Cardinals however have not been tested to the extent of their opponent as they only faced two other top 100 teams beating Purdue at home and knocking off Wichita St in the Bahamas. Louisville has the #1 adjusted defense as ranked by Kenpom.com and their offense ?only? averages 78.5 PPG. Only two players average double digit scoring in Donovan Mitchell (11.7) and Quentin Snider (11.0).
My pick for tonight goes to Louisville. The Cardinals are in a great spot having played at home their last 3 games, all in a walk over manner. Kentucky, meanwhile, is off the North Carolina game and is playing their first true road game of the season. The match-up of UK?s Monk and UL?s Mitchell is worth the price of admission and Mitchell has a steal rate of 4.9 per/game and is an elite defensive player.
Elon +26 over DUKE
Given the sheer popularity and prestige affixed to the Duke brand, anyone looking to back them here or on any given day should expect to pay a hefty premium. When Duke is at home, that price is more inflated. When Duke is undefeated at home, that narrative is furthered even more. When Duke is ranked in the top-five that price skyrockets even higher. When the opponent is scaled as a jobber for Duke to beat up on, the point total may be absurd. With all these variables being checked off on the list, this scenario is likely to materialize in this situation. Technically, this game is not a true home game for the Dukies because it is being played in Greensboro, N.C. but for all intents and purposes, it should be considered a home game.
We have always been proponents of situational betting and advocates of staying clear of heavy juice and spotting ridiculous numbers. When you consider the resume of Elon coming into this contest and the 5?-point swing in this market from the opening price, Duke being overvalued is vividly displayed. The Phoenix are no slouches by any means. This outfit comes in at 7-4 by way of the Colonial Athletic Association and owns some impressive results so far. The Phoenix defeated Northern Illinois on the road despite entering as a four-point pup. They also rolled USF as a four-point favorite on the road. Ultimately, the Phoenix would win six straight after losing their opener to Charlotte. To fan their hot start, Elon would take it to Georgetown on the road as a 10?-point pooch and ultimately lose by just a three-ball on the Hoyas? own court. Elon and Duke now play each other on an annual basis and yet we have seen the Phoenix cover in three of the previous five against the Blue Devils. Look it, we?re not going to sugar-coat this and suggest that Elon is in Duke?s class because obviously they are not. If all things were equal, the Dukies could name the score here but all things are not equal. Let?s not forget that these are kids, so after this game comes the Christmas break in which they?ll all go home for 10 days. The Dukies will not play again until New Year?s Eve day. On December 31, the Blue Devils will open up ACC play against the 10-1 Virginia Tech Hokies. That?s a huge game to open up conference play and although it?s 10 days away, it?s a much bigger fish to fry than this one. Duke is likely to be on cruise control here with no desire or motivation to blow this opponent out while Elon shows up for sure and treats it like an Elite Eight game. Take the points
Georgia State vs. Middle Tennessee
Play: Middle Tennessee -11
There may not be a team in need of conference play more than Georgia State. Landing former Indiana Hoosier Jeremy Hollowell, former Charlotte 49er Willie Clayton, and Alabama transfer Devin Mitchell has not helped elevate the Panthers. Their last two losses have been by double digits against Mississippi State and Old Dominion despite single-digit point spreads. In fact, all four of their road games this season were losses by an average of 15. The relentless style of play from Middle Tennessee is going to make the Panthers rush shots and turn the ball over. Mid Tenn is tough at home and I expect them to get a BLOWOUT WIN here tonight so lay the 11 points.
In the Sights, NCAA?
I don?t think the offense/defense matchup works for Craig Bohl?s team in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego tonight, so it will be #218 Wyoming Team Total Under (9:00 Eastern), which works at 23 or better.
One of the early themes to this season, and one that led to several follow-up tickets, was how Kelani Sitake had vowed to bring a physical approach to BYU, calling his Cougars the best-conditioned team in the nation prior to the opening kickoff. They have particularly shown that through their toughness on defense, and a combination of their conditioning work, plus a soft late schedule, should have them about as fresh as any bowl team will ever be on the defensive side of the ball. The only teams that had any success were those that could spread the field and throw the ball sideline-to-sideline with tempo, offenses like those Toledo and West Virginia, but this is a tough bunch to beat running north and south.
Wyoming plays north/south football, keyed by a tough runner in Brian Hill, which opened up play action for Josh Allen, who has some upside at QB. But even the passing has been vertical, not horizontal. That worked well against the mediocre defenses of the MWC, including several that could be pushed around in the trenches, but that does not happen here. The BYU defense is both tough enough to get Hill to the ground, and sound enough to not allow big plays via miscues, which makes this a challenge all night for the Wyoming attack to put drives together.
BYU / Wyoming Under 57?
We wanted to get this one in early, as we suspect this number could come down, which gives us the option to buy it back the other way. If it does not come down, we are more than happy to let the bet stand as is.
This number is so high because the Cowboys have been putting up some pretty juicy numbers all year long. Wyoming has hung point totals of 34, 45, 38, 35, 42, 52, 66, 33 and 35 in nine of its 13 games. Only once this entire season were the Cowboys held to less than 20 points, which occurred in Week 2 in a 52-17 loss to the Cornhuskers. However, those point totals came against some very weak defenses, not only out of conference but also in conference against offensive oriented Mountain West opponents. That one game against Nebraska in which the Cowboys scored 17 is notable because BYU?s defense is not only truly legit, it?s vastly superior to the ?Huskers defense. There is very little chance that the Cowboys are going to be racking up points or yards against this enemy.
BYU?s defense held Arizona to 16 points in its season opener. Subsequently the Cougars held Utah to 20, UCLA to 17, Michigan State to 14, Mississippi State to 21 in double OT (!), Cincinnati to 3, Southern Utah to 7, UMass to 9 and finally Utah State to 10. Even against the high flying Boise State Broncos, the Coogs held that outfit to 28 points in one of the more bizarre games you will ever see that featured trick plays, fake punts, turnovers and other stuff. We can assure you that the Cowboys of Wyoming have not seen a defense all season like the one they?ll face here. What makes this wager even more appealing is that the Cougars are coming in with a defensive mindset. You see, BYU will be playing this game without starting QB Taysom Hill, who was lost to an elbow injury in the regular-season finale. Tanner Mangum is a capable backup but they are not going to ask him to do the things that Hill did. The Cougars have a strong running game and they?ll use that and their stingy defense to completely wear down the Cowboys. The Cougars are a 9?-point favorite here. With Hill, they would have been -13 points or so, thus, if you were thinking of taking the points, that might not be a good idea. There is always an overreaction to a top QB being out, which is the case here. The Cowboys are an extremely flawed football team that is overmatched from top to bottom here and it would surprise us not if they were held to under 7 points. We may come in with a play on the Cougars later but for now, we trust going under this number is the best way to go.
Capitals vs. Flyers
Play: Flyers +105
After a 3-1 loss at Dallas on Saturday it would have been logical to expect the Flyers to bounce back at home against Nashville on Monday. After all, Philadelphia had won 10 straight games prior to the loss to the Stars and also had been perfect this season when coming off of a game where they were held to one goal or less. However, the Flyers got caught looking ahead to this big "playoff revenge" game Wednesday and fell 2-1 to the Predators. The Flyers are still 3-1 this season when off of a game where they were held to 1 goal or less and I look for them to bounce back here. The Flyers were very tough against the Capitals in last April's post-season series and they could be catching Washington at the ideal time for an upset. Washington has been off for 3 days and that is a situation that has seen them lose both times this season and also lose 10 of 18 (and down 7.8 net units) the past 3 seasons combined. The Flyers are 4-1 this season in home games with a posted total of 5 goals or less. The Capitals, in divisional games, have lost 6 of 10 (and down 5.8 net units) so far this season. There is value here with the hungry and highly motivated home team. By the way, the Flyers have not lost 3 straight games since early November. Bounce back time and the price is right here!
07:35 PM NBA [704] Detroit Pistons -6.5 -110
09:05 PM NBA [711] TOTAL o228-110 (Houston Rockets vrs Phoenix Suns)
10:05 PM NBA [716] Portland Trail Blazers -6.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB [719] Kentucky -2-105
09:00 PM CBB [744] Boise State -13-110
08:05 PM NHL [52] TOTAL u5+105 (Washington Capitals vrs Philadelphia Flyers)
09:35 PM NHL [54] Arizona Coyotes +145
1 unit bet pays 247 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Milwaukee Bucks +6
The Milwaukee Bucks want revenge from a 108-114 (OT) loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers at home last night. They don't have to wait long to get their chance as these teams will be playing again tonight in this home-and-home spot. I always like backing the team that lost the first game in these situations, and we're getting a nice value here with the Bucks. The Cavs are going to be without JR Smith and could be without Kevin Love, who is questionable. It also wouldn't surprise me if they ended up resting Lebron James, or limiting his minutes at the very least. The Bucks have a young roster than can handle this back-to-backs better than the Cavs. Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. The Bucks are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 meetings in Cleveland.
PHOENIX +6? over Houston
The resurgence of the Houston Rockets has been one of the premier storylines in the NBA thus far. Currently, the Rockets sit at 21-8 while boasting one of the best records in the Western Conference behind the incumbent powerhouses Golden State, San Antonio and the Clippers of Los Angeles. Houston?s stock was ballooning as they entered their contest with the San Antonio Spurs last night on a 10-game winning streak while absolutely obliterating many opponents they came across previous to their encounter with the Spurs. Though Houston lost 102-100 last night against its cross-state foes, the Rockets scored brownie points with their effort and with the result. Taking a team that lost just one-game on the road this year the distance before falling by a mere basket does not lower one?s stock. The Rockets showed that their record is no farce and while this outfit may be talented in their own right, you have to question the status of their physical and mental state as they go into Phoenix on the tail end of a back-to-back.
Phoenix will enter this one as the fresher team. The Suns have not played in two days and have had to time to lick their wounds from falling on the road at Minnesota on Monday. The Suns have one of the most dynamic offenses in all of the NBA but they stand at 8-20 because their defense cannot hold a lead. The Suns have some premier talent in guards Eric Bledsoe and Devin Knight and an absolute beast off the bench in sixth man Brandon Knight. All three will be available in this one and if this trio gets hot, it?s going to be big trouble for this visitor. Phoenix has split the last four in this series between these two Southwest combatants and they own the most recent win in Houston in April of this year. Phoenix will enter this one confident and juiced up while Houston may be fatigued and a bit disparaged after last night?s hard-fought loss. Situationally speaking, this is a favorable spot for the host and it sure doesn?t hurt that the Rockets are just one of those teams that the Suns are very comfortable playing.
Grizzlies vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons -6
Take the Pistons here tonight as the Grizzlies are coming off a heart breaking loss in OT against the Celtics last night. This Pistons team will be extra motivated as they were blown out last game vs the Bulls. Their coach Van Gundy was all over them after that game so you can expect a huge effort from them tonight. Grizzlies are just 3-9 ATS L12 road games playing a team with a winning home record.
Oklahoma City vs. New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans
Russell Westbrook finished just shy of his 51st career triple-double in a tough 110-108 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Monday, scoring 46 points to go with 11 rebounds and seven assists. Westbrook is averaging 30.9 points (first in the NBA), 10.9 assists (second) and 10.5 rebounds (13th). He is the second player in NBA history, behind Oscar Robertson in the early 1960s, to average more than 30 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists through the first 28 games of an NBA season. However, the Thunder are a modest 16-12 on the seaon, going 13-14 ATS .
The Pelicans also own one the the NBA?s elite players in Anthony Davis (29.6 & 11.1) but they are just 10-20 overall, going 14-16 ATS. However, it should be noted that after opening 0-8 and then 2-10, the Pelicans have been a near-.500 team, going 8-10 SU and 9-9 ATS. The return of PG Holiday has helped, as the Pelicans are 8-7 in the 15 games he?s played this season, with Holiday averaging 14.4 PPG and 6.2 APG. Davis recorded 31 points and 16 rebounds to lead New Orleans to a 108-93 road win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday, so this is a back-to-back situation for them.
OKC last played Monday in that two-point home loss to the Hawks and earlier this year, defeated the Pelicans 101-92 in Oklahoma City back on Dec. 4, with Westbrook recording his fifth consecutive triple-double (28 points, 17 rebounds and 12 assists However, SG Victor Oladipo (14.6) is expected to miss his fifth consecutive game with a wrist injury and he will be missed, because he?s OKC?s only other perimeter scorer other than Westbrook. The center duo of Kanter (12.5-5.8 ) and Adams (11.6 & 7.6) join Westbrook and Oladipo in double figures.
The Thunder have not been anything special on the road and are just 2-3 ATS as a road favorite, with one of those ATS wins coming in OT. Meanwhile, since opening 2-10 to start the season, the Pelicans are 6-3 ATS at home since Nov 18. Take the home team.
Vanderbilt vs. Dayton
Play: Vanderbilt +8
The Flyers couldn't make a shot in the first half against Northwestern last time out. While they fought hard to get back in the game over the final 20 minutes, Dayton still came up short. The Flyers have not bounced back well off a SU loss, covering just one of their last seven in this spot. They face a Vanderbilt team that struggled inside the arc at times this season, but we have seen Luke Kornet finally snap out of his cold streak. The Commodores are one of the top teams in the nation (31st) in 3-point accuracy, while also making 78% of their FTA. We believe those two key categories will come into play in what we believe will be a close game. Look for Vandy to hang the number.
Western Michigan vs. UCLA
Pick: Western Michigan
I know this is a hold your nose type of play but I have reasoning behind it and will be making a small play on the Western Michigan Broncos. I?ll start off by saying we are getting a ton of points, close to 30. Western Michigan got out on the West Coast Sunday when they played at Washington, so they should be comfortable already in this part of the region. For UCLA, I can?t say anything bad about them. The Bruins rank 1st in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Kenpom. They haven?t shown any signs of letting up, BUT I think this is a spot where it?s a lot more likely. The reason is conference play starts next week. This is their last game before it kicks off. Their opponent when PAC 12 conference play starts? It is a double revenge game vs Oregon. I think that look ahead spot can factor into them not covering this big spread, the largest one on the board tonight.
The Bruins have covered 9 straight games. The oddsmaker is being forced to raise the line. There is a time where there is value on the underdog. I will take my chances here. Western Michigan gave Villanova a run for their money earlier this season before losing by 13. They have two players in Thomas Wilder and Tucker Haymond that I think can keep them within this number. Wilder has a sweet stroke and Haymond is the team?s lone senior having a bounceback season.
Again, no knocks on UCLA, I just see this number being too big. We should see a final score in the 23-24 point range.
Virginia at Cal
Pick: Under
Virginia brings its great defense on the the road for head coach Tony Bennett. Virginia is 11-1 under the total on the road, on a 17-8 run under overall. Cal is home playing tough defense allowing 59, 59, 51, 60, 61 and 55 the last six contests. Virginia is 1-0 all-time vs. California, posting a 63-62 overtime win in Charlottesville last season.
Northern Iowa at North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -17.5
Northern Iowa has been a wretched shooting team knocking down just over 40% of its attempts. Where they've been much better however has been from beyond the arc where they convert at a near 38% clip (#90). Limited scoring will be taking place down low against UNC?s bigs, so it will be up to the sharpshooters to keep this one interesting. If they fall, UNI won't get embarrassed. If they aren't, it'll be blowout city!
This is a rematch of last year?s meeting held in Cedar Falls, IA where the Panthers upset the Tar Heels 71-67 as 6.5 point underdogs. Washpun played an integral role in helping lead the Panthers to the outright upset, but he won?t even be in the building this time around. In his absence, Jeremy Morgan must step up. If not, UNI is going to have a whale of a time attempting to not get blown off the court.
UNC has already covered -21 and -15.5 point spreads on its hardwood, and linemakers are making you eat a ton of chalk to back them in this spot as well. North Carolina simply has way too much offense for Northern Iowa to contend with, and the fact that it?s going to get killed on the glass has me optimistically laying the heavy chalk with the home team in the rematch.
Kentucky at Louisville
Play: Louisville +1
There are two days that you circle on your calendar if you live in Kentucky and that is the first Saturday in May for the Derby and when Louisville and Kentucky play basketball. This game is so big that the NCAA Championship trophy will be on display. Kentucky leads the all-time series 34-15 and has won 4 straight while covering 5 in a row. During the 4 game UK win streak the Wildcats won as a 1 and 5 point favorite the last 2 games and as a 4.5 and 1 pt underdog the previous two.
The Wildcats are now 10-1 and the month of December may feel like March as they hosted and lost to UCLA, hosted Valpo and then in what very well be the game of the year beat North Carolina 103-100 last Saturday in Las Vegas. Kentucky?s high scoring offense which averages 95 PPG is led by 3 freshman and a sophomore with Malik Monk leading the way with 21.9 PPG, followed by De?Aaron Fox (15.9), Isaiah Bruce (15.9) and Edrice Adebayo (12.6). Monk threw his hat into the MVP race in Vegas by scoring 47 points hitting 18 of 28 FG?s and making 8 of 12 from 3 point land.
Louisville is also 10-1 with a 66-63 loss against Baylor in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. The Cardinals however have not been tested to the extent of their opponent as they only faced two other top 100 teams beating Purdue at home and knocking off Wichita St in the Bahamas. Louisville has the #1 adjusted defense as ranked by Kenpom.com and their offense ?only? averages 78.5 PPG. Only two players average double digit scoring in Donovan Mitchell (11.7) and Quentin Snider (11.0).
My pick for tonight goes to Louisville. The Cardinals are in a great spot having played at home their last 3 games, all in a walk over manner. Kentucky, meanwhile, is off the North Carolina game and is playing their first true road game of the season. The match-up of UK?s Monk and UL?s Mitchell is worth the price of admission and Mitchell has a steal rate of 4.9 per/game and is an elite defensive player.
Elon +26 over DUKE
Given the sheer popularity and prestige affixed to the Duke brand, anyone looking to back them here or on any given day should expect to pay a hefty premium. When Duke is at home, that price is more inflated. When Duke is undefeated at home, that narrative is furthered even more. When Duke is ranked in the top-five that price skyrockets even higher. When the opponent is scaled as a jobber for Duke to beat up on, the point total may be absurd. With all these variables being checked off on the list, this scenario is likely to materialize in this situation. Technically, this game is not a true home game for the Dukies because it is being played in Greensboro, N.C. but for all intents and purposes, it should be considered a home game.
We have always been proponents of situational betting and advocates of staying clear of heavy juice and spotting ridiculous numbers. When you consider the resume of Elon coming into this contest and the 5?-point swing in this market from the opening price, Duke being overvalued is vividly displayed. The Phoenix are no slouches by any means. This outfit comes in at 7-4 by way of the Colonial Athletic Association and owns some impressive results so far. The Phoenix defeated Northern Illinois on the road despite entering as a four-point pup. They also rolled USF as a four-point favorite on the road. Ultimately, the Phoenix would win six straight after losing their opener to Charlotte. To fan their hot start, Elon would take it to Georgetown on the road as a 10?-point pooch and ultimately lose by just a three-ball on the Hoyas? own court. Elon and Duke now play each other on an annual basis and yet we have seen the Phoenix cover in three of the previous five against the Blue Devils. Look it, we?re not going to sugar-coat this and suggest that Elon is in Duke?s class because obviously they are not. If all things were equal, the Dukies could name the score here but all things are not equal. Let?s not forget that these are kids, so after this game comes the Christmas break in which they?ll all go home for 10 days. The Dukies will not play again until New Year?s Eve day. On December 31, the Blue Devils will open up ACC play against the 10-1 Virginia Tech Hokies. That?s a huge game to open up conference play and although it?s 10 days away, it?s a much bigger fish to fry than this one. Duke is likely to be on cruise control here with no desire or motivation to blow this opponent out while Elon shows up for sure and treats it like an Elite Eight game. Take the points
Georgia State vs. Middle Tennessee
Play: Middle Tennessee -11
There may not be a team in need of conference play more than Georgia State. Landing former Indiana Hoosier Jeremy Hollowell, former Charlotte 49er Willie Clayton, and Alabama transfer Devin Mitchell has not helped elevate the Panthers. Their last two losses have been by double digits against Mississippi State and Old Dominion despite single-digit point spreads. In fact, all four of their road games this season were losses by an average of 15. The relentless style of play from Middle Tennessee is going to make the Panthers rush shots and turn the ball over. Mid Tenn is tough at home and I expect them to get a BLOWOUT WIN here tonight so lay the 11 points.
In the Sights, NCAA?
I don?t think the offense/defense matchup works for Craig Bohl?s team in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego tonight, so it will be #218 Wyoming Team Total Under (9:00 Eastern), which works at 23 or better.
One of the early themes to this season, and one that led to several follow-up tickets, was how Kelani Sitake had vowed to bring a physical approach to BYU, calling his Cougars the best-conditioned team in the nation prior to the opening kickoff. They have particularly shown that through their toughness on defense, and a combination of their conditioning work, plus a soft late schedule, should have them about as fresh as any bowl team will ever be on the defensive side of the ball. The only teams that had any success were those that could spread the field and throw the ball sideline-to-sideline with tempo, offenses like those Toledo and West Virginia, but this is a tough bunch to beat running north and south.
Wyoming plays north/south football, keyed by a tough runner in Brian Hill, which opened up play action for Josh Allen, who has some upside at QB. But even the passing has been vertical, not horizontal. That worked well against the mediocre defenses of the MWC, including several that could be pushed around in the trenches, but that does not happen here. The BYU defense is both tough enough to get Hill to the ground, and sound enough to not allow big plays via miscues, which makes this a challenge all night for the Wyoming attack to put drives together.
BYU / Wyoming Under 57?
We wanted to get this one in early, as we suspect this number could come down, which gives us the option to buy it back the other way. If it does not come down, we are more than happy to let the bet stand as is.
This number is so high because the Cowboys have been putting up some pretty juicy numbers all year long. Wyoming has hung point totals of 34, 45, 38, 35, 42, 52, 66, 33 and 35 in nine of its 13 games. Only once this entire season were the Cowboys held to less than 20 points, which occurred in Week 2 in a 52-17 loss to the Cornhuskers. However, those point totals came against some very weak defenses, not only out of conference but also in conference against offensive oriented Mountain West opponents. That one game against Nebraska in which the Cowboys scored 17 is notable because BYU?s defense is not only truly legit, it?s vastly superior to the ?Huskers defense. There is very little chance that the Cowboys are going to be racking up points or yards against this enemy.
BYU?s defense held Arizona to 16 points in its season opener. Subsequently the Cougars held Utah to 20, UCLA to 17, Michigan State to 14, Mississippi State to 21 in double OT (!), Cincinnati to 3, Southern Utah to 7, UMass to 9 and finally Utah State to 10. Even against the high flying Boise State Broncos, the Coogs held that outfit to 28 points in one of the more bizarre games you will ever see that featured trick plays, fake punts, turnovers and other stuff. We can assure you that the Cowboys of Wyoming have not seen a defense all season like the one they?ll face here. What makes this wager even more appealing is that the Cougars are coming in with a defensive mindset. You see, BYU will be playing this game without starting QB Taysom Hill, who was lost to an elbow injury in the regular-season finale. Tanner Mangum is a capable backup but they are not going to ask him to do the things that Hill did. The Cougars have a strong running game and they?ll use that and their stingy defense to completely wear down the Cowboys. The Cougars are a 9?-point favorite here. With Hill, they would have been -13 points or so, thus, if you were thinking of taking the points, that might not be a good idea. There is always an overreaction to a top QB being out, which is the case here. The Cowboys are an extremely flawed football team that is overmatched from top to bottom here and it would surprise us not if they were held to under 7 points. We may come in with a play on the Cougars later but for now, we trust going under this number is the best way to go.
Capitals vs. Flyers
Play: Flyers +105
After a 3-1 loss at Dallas on Saturday it would have been logical to expect the Flyers to bounce back at home against Nashville on Monday. After all, Philadelphia had won 10 straight games prior to the loss to the Stars and also had been perfect this season when coming off of a game where they were held to one goal or less. However, the Flyers got caught looking ahead to this big "playoff revenge" game Wednesday and fell 2-1 to the Predators. The Flyers are still 3-1 this season when off of a game where they were held to 1 goal or less and I look for them to bounce back here. The Flyers were very tough against the Capitals in last April's post-season series and they could be catching Washington at the ideal time for an upset. Washington has been off for 3 days and that is a situation that has seen them lose both times this season and also lose 10 of 18 (and down 7.8 net units) the past 3 seasons combined. The Flyers are 4-1 this season in home games with a posted total of 5 goals or less. The Capitals, in divisional games, have lost 6 of 10 (and down 5.8 net units) so far this season. There is value here with the hungry and highly motivated home team. By the way, the Flyers have not lost 3 straight games since early November. Bounce back time and the price is right here!
