stole this from http://picks.ws/
what do you think of this system??
My 'Favorite' Week 1 NFL System
Author: Brian Gabrielle
Posted on 2002-09-06 19:51:46
Week 1 NFL pointspreads are steeped in hype and expectations of teams based on a combination of last years results, pre-season results and highly touted off-season signings.
This public logic is misguided and creates an overlay situation for astute handicappers who will look for opportunities to exploit the true NFL averages of (HomeTeam-3) where it exists against the unknown commodity of week 1 NFL. Largely in pointspreads of -3 or greater due to the nature of football scoring and the NFL historical averages. Playing large underdogs in week 1 of the NFL season has long been a staple in the diet of succesfull players for exactly this reason.
But what of pointspreads less than a FG? Would that create automatic overlay on the home team, or are those numbers more telling even than that?
Consider this; Week 1 NFL home teams who are favored by less than a FG are 15-6 71% ATS (dating back to 1988), which seems to backup the week 1 overlay theory against NFL averages.
Week 1 Home Teams 15-6 as Fav less than a FG
Away Team Home Team Score O/U Pt R Sp ATS
Washington v San Diego 2001 3-30 36.0 33 U -2.5 San Diego
Tennessee v Buffalo 2000 13-16 40.0 29 U -1.5 Buffalo
Seattle v Miami 2000 0-23 36.0 23 U -1.5 Miami
Detroit v New Orleans 2000 14-10 40.5 24 U -1.0 Detroit
Dallas v Washington 1999 41-35 43.0 76 O -2.5 Dallas
Washington v NY Giants 1998 24-31 36.0 55 O -2.5 NY Giants
Buffalo v San Diego 1998 14-16 40.5 30 U -2.0
Minnesota v Buffalo 1997 34-13 37.0 47 O -2.5 Minnesota
Oakland v Baltimore 1996 14-19 39.0 33 U -2.5 Baltimore
New England v Miami 1996 10-24 44.0 34 U -2.5 Miami
Detroit v Minnesota 1996 13-17 48.0 30 U -2.0 Minnesota
Philadelphia v Washington 1996 17-14 40.5 31 U -1.5 Philadelphia
Seattle v Washington 1994 28-7 36.0 35 U -1.0 Seattle
Tennessee v New Orleans 1993 21-33 39.0 54 O -2.5 New Orleans
Dallas v Washington 1993 16-35 40.0 51 O -2.5 Washington
Cincinnati v Denver 1991 14-45 45.0 59 O -2.5 Denver
San Francisco v NY Giants 1991 14-16 37.0 30 U -1.5 NY Giants
Tampa Bay v NY Jets 1991 13-16 40.0 29 U -2.5 NY Jets
Oakland v Tennessee 1991 17-47 44.0 64 O -2.5 Tennessee
Tennessee v Atlanta 1990 27-47 46.0 74 O -1.0 Atlanta
Washington v NY Giants 1988 20-27 42.5 47 O -2.5 NY Giants
New England v NY Jets 1989 27-24 41.0 51 O -2.5 New England
That said, an interesting situation co-exists in the face of the pre-mentioned logic, where oddsmakers have to release telling lines to balance action on public favorites against stronger teams. We see that in road teams who are favored by less than a FG being equally succesful (in fact slightly more so) at 13-4 76% ATS.
Week 1 Road Teams 13-4 as favs less than FG
Away Team Home Team Score O/U Pt R Sp ATS
New Orleans v Buffalo 2001 24-6 37.5 30 U 1.0 New Orleans
New England v Cincinnati 2001 17-23 35.5 40 O 1.0 Cincinnati
Indianapolis v NY Jets 2001 45-24 44.5 69 O 2.0 Indianapolis
Baltimore v Pittsburgh 2000 16-0 37.5 16 U 2.5 Baltimore
Tennessee v Cincinnati 1998 23-14 44.5 37 U 1.0 Tennessee
Pittsburgh v Baltimore 1997 42-34 45.0 76 O 1.5 Pittsburgh
Kansas City v Seattle 1995 34-10 36.5 44 O 1.0 Kansas City
Kansas City v New Orleans 1994 30-17 39.0 47 O 2.5 Kansas City
Denver v NY Jets 1993 26-20 36.5 46 O 0.5 Denver
Minnesota v Oakland 1993 7-24 36.0 31 U 2.5 Oakland
Washington v Dallas 1992 10-23 43.0 33 U 2.0 Dallas
Kansas City v San Diego 1992 24-10 34.5 34 U 2.5 Kansas City
Dallas v Baltimore 1991 26-14 37.0 40 O 2.5 Dallas
Minnesota v Kansas City 1990 21-24 37.0 45 O 1.5 Kansas City
Arizona v Detroit 1989 16-13 40.0 29 U 1.5 Arizona
Baltimore v Pittsburgh 1989 51-0 43.0 51 O 2.0 Baltimore
San Francisco v New Orleans 1988 34-33 44.0 67 O 0.5 San Francisco
This year we have 3 games which qualify under this week 1 'favorites' system. Philadelphia, who many pick to go the distance, is opening as a 1 point underdog to Tennessee, who are coming off a disasterous season. We have Baltimore as a road favorite behind the inexperienced Chris Redman and we have Cincinnati who open as favorites to the rejuvinated Chargers under Marty Schottenheimer. All three games look tempting on the surface to take the points with Philadelphia, San Diego and at home with Carolina but history says different where playing the percentages actually suggests the opposite.
2002 Week 1 System Plays;
Take Tennessee -1 over Philadelphia
Take Cincinnati -2 over San Diego
Take Baltimore -2 over Carolina
Courtesy of BG Sports
what do you think of this system??
My 'Favorite' Week 1 NFL System
Author: Brian Gabrielle
Posted on 2002-09-06 19:51:46
Week 1 NFL pointspreads are steeped in hype and expectations of teams based on a combination of last years results, pre-season results and highly touted off-season signings.
This public logic is misguided and creates an overlay situation for astute handicappers who will look for opportunities to exploit the true NFL averages of (HomeTeam-3) where it exists against the unknown commodity of week 1 NFL. Largely in pointspreads of -3 or greater due to the nature of football scoring and the NFL historical averages. Playing large underdogs in week 1 of the NFL season has long been a staple in the diet of succesfull players for exactly this reason.
But what of pointspreads less than a FG? Would that create automatic overlay on the home team, or are those numbers more telling even than that?
Consider this; Week 1 NFL home teams who are favored by less than a FG are 15-6 71% ATS (dating back to 1988), which seems to backup the week 1 overlay theory against NFL averages.
Week 1 Home Teams 15-6 as Fav less than a FG
Away Team Home Team Score O/U Pt R Sp ATS
Washington v San Diego 2001 3-30 36.0 33 U -2.5 San Diego
Tennessee v Buffalo 2000 13-16 40.0 29 U -1.5 Buffalo
Seattle v Miami 2000 0-23 36.0 23 U -1.5 Miami
Detroit v New Orleans 2000 14-10 40.5 24 U -1.0 Detroit
Dallas v Washington 1999 41-35 43.0 76 O -2.5 Dallas
Washington v NY Giants 1998 24-31 36.0 55 O -2.5 NY Giants
Buffalo v San Diego 1998 14-16 40.5 30 U -2.0
Minnesota v Buffalo 1997 34-13 37.0 47 O -2.5 Minnesota
Oakland v Baltimore 1996 14-19 39.0 33 U -2.5 Baltimore
New England v Miami 1996 10-24 44.0 34 U -2.5 Miami
Detroit v Minnesota 1996 13-17 48.0 30 U -2.0 Minnesota
Philadelphia v Washington 1996 17-14 40.5 31 U -1.5 Philadelphia
Seattle v Washington 1994 28-7 36.0 35 U -1.0 Seattle
Tennessee v New Orleans 1993 21-33 39.0 54 O -2.5 New Orleans
Dallas v Washington 1993 16-35 40.0 51 O -2.5 Washington
Cincinnati v Denver 1991 14-45 45.0 59 O -2.5 Denver
San Francisco v NY Giants 1991 14-16 37.0 30 U -1.5 NY Giants
Tampa Bay v NY Jets 1991 13-16 40.0 29 U -2.5 NY Jets
Oakland v Tennessee 1991 17-47 44.0 64 O -2.5 Tennessee
Tennessee v Atlanta 1990 27-47 46.0 74 O -1.0 Atlanta
Washington v NY Giants 1988 20-27 42.5 47 O -2.5 NY Giants
New England v NY Jets 1989 27-24 41.0 51 O -2.5 New England
That said, an interesting situation co-exists in the face of the pre-mentioned logic, where oddsmakers have to release telling lines to balance action on public favorites against stronger teams. We see that in road teams who are favored by less than a FG being equally succesful (in fact slightly more so) at 13-4 76% ATS.
Week 1 Road Teams 13-4 as favs less than FG
Away Team Home Team Score O/U Pt R Sp ATS
New Orleans v Buffalo 2001 24-6 37.5 30 U 1.0 New Orleans
New England v Cincinnati 2001 17-23 35.5 40 O 1.0 Cincinnati
Indianapolis v NY Jets 2001 45-24 44.5 69 O 2.0 Indianapolis
Baltimore v Pittsburgh 2000 16-0 37.5 16 U 2.5 Baltimore
Tennessee v Cincinnati 1998 23-14 44.5 37 U 1.0 Tennessee
Pittsburgh v Baltimore 1997 42-34 45.0 76 O 1.5 Pittsburgh
Kansas City v Seattle 1995 34-10 36.5 44 O 1.0 Kansas City
Kansas City v New Orleans 1994 30-17 39.0 47 O 2.5 Kansas City
Denver v NY Jets 1993 26-20 36.5 46 O 0.5 Denver
Minnesota v Oakland 1993 7-24 36.0 31 U 2.5 Oakland
Washington v Dallas 1992 10-23 43.0 33 U 2.0 Dallas
Kansas City v San Diego 1992 24-10 34.5 34 U 2.5 Kansas City
Dallas v Baltimore 1991 26-14 37.0 40 O 2.5 Dallas
Minnesota v Kansas City 1990 21-24 37.0 45 O 1.5 Kansas City
Arizona v Detroit 1989 16-13 40.0 29 U 1.5 Arizona
Baltimore v Pittsburgh 1989 51-0 43.0 51 O 2.0 Baltimore
San Francisco v New Orleans 1988 34-33 44.0 67 O 0.5 San Francisco
This year we have 3 games which qualify under this week 1 'favorites' system. Philadelphia, who many pick to go the distance, is opening as a 1 point underdog to Tennessee, who are coming off a disasterous season. We have Baltimore as a road favorite behind the inexperienced Chris Redman and we have Cincinnati who open as favorites to the rejuvinated Chargers under Marty Schottenheimer. All three games look tempting on the surface to take the points with Philadelphia, San Diego and at home with Carolina but history says different where playing the percentages actually suggests the opposite.
2002 Week 1 System Plays;
Take Tennessee -1 over Philadelphia
Take Cincinnati -2 over San Diego
Take Baltimore -2 over Carolina
Courtesy of BG Sports
