Ten new head coaches. Nineteen offensive coordinator changes. The Stimulus Plan. 2009 has been a year of change, shakeup, and attempted upgrades
Having the most opinions and background will prepare you best.
1:00PM ET Games
Miami @ Atlanta
The Dolphins had to revamp their secondary after giving up the eighth most passing yards in the league last year, but the newcomers figure to experience growing pains. Rookie RCB Sean Smith looked lost at times this preseason, and new FS Gibril Wilson has always been a better run stopper than cover man. Matt Ryan is a must-start in this matchup...Michael Turner stands to benefit greatly from the addition of Tony Gonzalez, who will keep at least one safety (likely SS Yeremiah Bell) out of the box and command intermittent double teams. The Fins' run defense was sturdy in '08, but Turner remains a solid bet for 90 yards and a score...LCB Will Allen is Miami's top cover corner, but Bill Parcells indicated that he believes the 31-year-old is declining by giving him a fairly below-market new contract this offseason, then drafting corners with his top two picks. Roddy White's holdout lasted just a week and he was explosive in the preseason. He'll give the 31-year-old Allen fits on Sunday. Expect 28+ points from Atlanta's offense.
Split end Ted Ginn Jr. will likely face Falcons RCB Chris Houston in primary coverage. Houston's first two years have been up and down, but he excels in press-man, and Ginn struggled to beat the jam in August, finishing the preseason with three catches. He's a borderline WR3...Miami never formally named a No. 2 receiver, but Davone Bess is first on the depth chart and plays in the slot. He's a better bet than Ginn for a high catch total facing weak LCB Brent Grimes and/or athletically limited nickel back Chevis Jackson...The Fins' best approach in this road game would be to use Ronnie Brown relentlessly on the Georgia Dome turf and keep Ryan on the sidelines. Brown should finish with 25 touches even if Miami is playing catch-up. He'll rarely come off field.
Kansas City @ Baltimore
Looking for a safe bet to lead all Week 1 receivers in targets? Dwayne Bowe is your man. The Chiefs have no hope of a ground game against a Ravens club that ranked third in '08 run defense and returns NT Kelly Gregg after he missed last season. Play Bowe with confidence, no matter who starts at QB...Bench the rest of your Chiefs, literally. We don't know if Mark Bradley will start despite his first-team flanker listing, and Jamaal Charles may end up with double the touches of Larry Johnson. Kansas City figures to fall behind early, and Charles is the passing-down back.
Ray Rice is a must-start RB2 against a Chiefs defense that implements the 3-4 despite lacking ideal personnel. Rookies Michael Oher (Ravens RT) and Tyson Jackson (Chiefs LE) may play to a draw on the strong side, but C Matt Birk and LG Ben Grubbs should dominate Chiefs NT Ron Edwards up the gut. Rice is also a demon on check downs and K.C. doesn't have the speed at outside 'backer or safety to stop him. Look for 150 all-purpose yards...Mark Clayton is a must-sit considering his balky hamstring, lost camp, and likely matchup with Chiefs top corner Brandon Flowers, but flanker/slot man Derrick Mason's route running will be a handful for LCB Brandon Carr. Carr was almost strictly a zone corner in 2008 and is just now learning to play man...Despite positive camp reports about Todd Heap, stay away until he shows something in a real game.
Philadelphia @ Carolina
It's natural to worry about Brian Westbrook at 30 coming off dual leg surgeries, but few matchups would give him a better chance to start hot. Carolina won't replace massive NT Maake Kemoeatu (torn Achilles) and already wasn't potent against the run. With MLB Jon Beason (knee) still banged up, Westbrook is a threat for 100 total yards and a TD even on 15-17 touches...Donovan McNabb should be in fantasy lineups, but the Eagles would be smart to go run heavy, also using LeSean McCoy early and often...If there's one flaw in Birds flanker DeSean Jackson's game, it's that he isn't overly physical. He'll be shadowed by Carolina LCB Chris Gamble, another speedster with better size than Jackson. D-Jax is more of a WR3 than a WR2 in this matchup...Bench TE Brent Celek. He'll be a better bet when Philly plays teams it will have to pass on to beat.
Jonathan Stewart's return from an Achilles injury won't hurt DeAngelo Williams yet. Stewart isn't ready for his usual carry-sharing role, and Williams faces an Eagles defense that will sorely miss MLB Stewart Bradley (ACL tear). Quick fix Omar Gaither isn't half the run defender...Eagles RCB Sheldon Brown is coming off a great year, but turned 30 this spring and was pushed by former Patriot Ellis Hobbs for a starting job in August. Susceptible to the deep pass, he's unlikely to stop Steve Smith with late-round rookie Macho Harris as Brown's "help" along the sideline...Muhsin Muhammad is an obvious "sit" against LCB Asante Samuel. No Panthers tight ends are worth consideration.
Denver @ Cincinnati
The Denver backfield is to be avoided until we see clarity, assuming it ever comes. 31-year-old Correll Buckhalter will start, eventual lead back Knowshon Moreno (knee) wasn't cleared for contact until Thursday, and Peyton Hillis was the Broncos' best option this preseason. Cincy's run defense will surprise this year, and this is a three-headed monster until further notice...Use Brandon Marshall as a WR3, but limit expectations. He'll often square off with underrated Bengals RCB Leon Hall, may rotate with Jabar Gaffney, and his quarterback is less than 100 percent...Kyle Orton figures to have accuracy problems in the vertical game, but Eddie Royal is a strong bet for 8-10 catches. Royal and Orton showed an incredible rapport throughout August and Orton's lacerated finger shouldn't affect his throws as much underneath, where Royal is an unrivaled route runner.
Carson Palmer has a favorable matchup against the NFL's oldest secondary. Speed merchants Chad Ochocinco and Chris Henry, and quick possession wideout Laveranues Coles will keep CBs Champ Bailey (31) and Andre' Goodman (31) on their heels, with 36-year-old S Brian Dawkins as their help. Dawkins looked several steps too slow in August...Henry isn't a recommended play yet, but keep an eye on how he is employed. Henry earned a playing-time bump after an awesome preseason, but we need to know that he'll play over Andre Caldwell in three-wideout sets before using him...The Broncos' pass rush showed improvement as one of only 13 teams to generate double-digit preseason sacks, but their run defense remains a work in progress moving to a 3-4. Cedric Benson won't catch any passes, but won't see any eight-man fronts either.
Minnesota @ Cleveland
Week 7 is our educated guess as to when James Davis will unseat Jamal Lewis. Lewis is certain to struggle Sunday with Vikings DTs Kevin and Pat Williams' suspensions on hold, and also gets Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the first six games...Davis isn't playable yet, but he's already the Browns' third-down specialist and rotates in on early downs...Brady Quinn will probably have to throw 35-39 times to offset either 1) Lewis' ineffectiveness against 2008's No. 1 run defense, or 2) an early lead for Minnesota. He's a fine two-QB league start and figures to target Braylon Edwards heavily, although Edwards will be shadowed by Vikings Pro Bowl CB Antoine Winfield.
We can confidently say that Adrian Peterson will gash the Browns (28th in run defense last year). The only notable upgrade to their starting front seven was DE Kenyon Coleman, who may have missed the Jets' final cut had Eric Mangini not traded for him. Expect a decidedly run-heavy mindset from Minnesota...Brett Favre admits he isn't 100 percent "mentally or physically," and Bernard Berrian (hamstring) was limited in practice all week. Short-route targets Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe are better bets to lead Minnesota in catches...Sidney Rice will remain a key red-zone guy for the Vikes, but his week-to-week production will be highly inconsistent.
NY Jets @ Houston
New Jets RCB Lito Sheppard hasn't overcome the coverage woes that plagued him late in his Eagles career. He was a liability throughout August and will be picked on by Matt Schaub. The absence of DE Shaun Ellis and OLB Calvin Pace -- two of New York's top three pass rushers -- due to suspension won't hurt Schaub's cause...Ellis' loss creates a void at left end, which will be "filled" by lackluster reserves Mike DeVito (hamstring) and Sione Pouha (one start in five years). It's setup to be a big day for the Texans' offense, Steve Slaton included...The Jets used shutdown LCB Darrelle Revis as a "shadow" corner last year, but it's unclear if Rex Ryan will keep that plan in place. Either way, Andre Johnson is an obvious must play. Avoid Kevin Walter (hamstring).
The Texans' front four got heavier this offseason. LE Antonio Smith (6'4/285) and NT Shaun Cody (6'4/310) are the new starters. All four down linemen are at least 285 pounds. A make-you-miss back like Leon Washington has a better chance of success than Thomas Jones, a grinding runner, or power option Shonn Greene...Texans RCB Dunta Robinson will square off with split end Jerricho Cotchery for much of the day. It's a good matchup for Jerricho because Robinson is rusty after ending his holdout just days ago...However, camp star Dustin Keller may still lead the Jets in receiving yardage, as he'll see a lot of SS Dominique Barber in coverage. Barber can hit, but Keller's speed (4.5-flat forty) gives him a significant edge over Marion's brother (4.64).
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
The Colts won't ease Donald Brown into the lineup. He'll immediately be used in a series-by-series rotation with Joseph Addai, giving him a shot at 13-17 touches. Still, it's a good week to "wait and see" on this backfield. Jags rookie DT Terrance Knighton (6'3/321) had a standout camp and may finally be the Marcus Stroud successor Jacksonville's been desperate for so long...LCB Rashean Mathis is sure to follow Colts split end Reggie Wayne all over the field. The starter opposite Mathis, third-round pick Derek Cox, missed much of camp due to injury and played college ball at William & Mary, leaving him without experience against anyone remotely resembling NFL wideouts. First-year starter Anthony Gonzalez's breakout game is at hand.
The Colts won't have SS Bob Sanders (knee), so former undrafted free agent Melvin Bullitt will start. Further secondary issues lie at right cornerback, where either diminutive Tim Jennings or raw underclassman rookie Jerraud Powers will stand in. With LCB Kelvin Hayden likely to keep Torry Holt in check, Troy Williamson has a good shot to build on his stellar preseason in Week 1. Then sell high...DT Ed Johnson is serving a one-game suspension, the Colts are moving smallish DE Robert Mathis back into a full-time role, and second-round pick Fili Moala failed to distinguish himself in camp. Add in Sanders' absence and Maurice Jones-Drew should start piping hot.
Detroit @ New Orleans
The Saints know they don't need to risk Pierre Thomas aggravating his MCL sprain to beat Detroit at home and will almost certainly hold him out. That sets up Mike Bell for 16-19 carries and all goal-line chances, where Sean Payton is confident in the former Bronco. Meet your next Frisman Jackson/Dante Rosario Week 1 superhero...All Saints starting skill players should be in lineups against a Lions defense that is near certain to be porous again. Detroit lacks a shutdown corner between Phillip Buchanon and Anthony Henry, and starts a rookie (Louis Delmas) and career special teamer (Kalvin Pearson) at safety. It's a severe mismatch favoring the NFL's top passing team.
We highly recommend the Saints' fantasy defense in Matthew Stafford's debut. Stafford showed poise and the ability to make all the throws in August, but was pick prone and New Orleans has upgraded its secondary immensely. That DEs Will Smith and Charles Grant will avoid suspension is the clincher...Stafford is a candidate for 33-37 attempts, as the Lions figure to be playing catch-up after the Saints' first or second drive. Keep your Detroit skill players going. Throwing often won't hurt Kevin Smith, who stays on the field in passing situations. He's an every-down back.
Dallas @ Tampa Bay
The Bucs' late-preseason shakeup at safety (Jermaine Phillips moved back to DB after gaining weight all offseason to play linebacker) bodes well for tight ends to start hot against them. Jason Witten, who will see increased red-zone targets with Terrell Owens out of Big D, is first to benefit...One beat writer talked up a 50:50 split between Marion Barber and Felix Jones, but that's highly unlikely. Jones is a pace-change back with kick return ability and soft hands, but Barber is extremely difficult to pull off the field because of his power, sound blitz pickups, and receiving skills. He'll be a much better bet for touchdowns than Jones all year...Look for 34-year-old RCB Ronde Barber to cover Roy Williams while Aqib Talib squares off against the Miles Austin-Patrick Crayton combo at strong-side wideout. We like Williams to silence the doubters in Week 1.
If you can believe it, Dallas' front seven got bigger with the change from Chris Canty to Igor Olshansky at right defensive end. New strong outside linebacker Anthony Spencer is also a major run-stopping upgrade over castoff Greg Ellis. The Bucs' 2-2-1 rotation already caps any of their backs' upsides. It's very difficult to imagine starting one...Antonio Bryant (knee) caught no passes this preseason from Byron Leftwich. Leftwich (5.25 YPA, 48.8 completion rate) was downright awful. Let's wait a week before plugging in any Bucs pass catchers besides TE Kellen Winslow.
4:15PM ET Games
San Francisco @ Arizona
The Cards' 0-4 preseason is of no concern for the offense. Arizona led the NFL in passing yards despite not game planning for one of its opponents. Kurt Warner will start hot against a Niners secondary that trots out Dashon Goldson (two career starts) and coverage liability Michael Lewis at safety, and brittle Shawntae Spencer (one start since '06) at right corner. Larry Fitzgerald will likely see Spencer in primary coverage, while Nate Clements shadows Anquan Boldin...Arizona will use fewer three-wide sets this year; avoid Steve Breaston...With a good shot at 20 touches, Tim Hightower is a safer play than Chris Wells. Wells may be the lead back by midseason, but Hightower's 4.8 preseason YPC and passing-down skills locked him into the Week 1 starting job.
The 49ers will go run heavy all year, but particularly on Sunday. Only three teams gave up more rushing touchdowns than Arizona this preseason. Look for 25 carries and a TD from Frank Gore, with Glen Coffee also active...Leave Shaun Hill and the 49ers' receivers on your bench. Josh Morgan was surprisingly quiet in August (three catches, 20 yards), and Hill seemed to show more rapport with slow slot guy Arnaz Battle...You shouldn't need a last-minute tight end in Week 1, but Vernon Davis is a good bet if you do. The Cards will use SS Adrian Wilson as a linebacker/safety, with FS Antrel Rolle on Davis. Rolle has been oft-burned since entering the league.Washington @ NY Giants
Brandon Jacobs is a must-start every time he suits up, but Ahmad Bradshaw may give the hefty Redskins defensive line more problems. Bradshaw's shake-and-bake style, surprising pop, and elusiveness in space will be a handful for oversized and aging DLs Phillip Daniels and Cornelius Griffin. Albert Haynesworth is quick off the snap, but does little in pursuit, while RE Andre Carter is mostly a one-trick pass-rushing pony. Use Bradshaw in a flex spot if you're searching for options...The Giants' passing game is to be avoided until a wideout steps up. A Domenik Hixon-Mario Manningham-Hakeem Nicks committee at split end is possible, and Steve Smith is a possession target with weak red-zone skills.
The Giants changed defensive coordinators this offseason, promoting LBs coach Bill Sheridan from within. The player moves, however, strongly indicate that there will be no shortage of fire-zone blitzes and pressure from all angles. That's a major concern for a Redskins line that returns its two best players (LT Chris Samuels and RG Randy Thomas) at age 32+ and coming off surgery. It'll be a long day for Jim Zorn's passing offense...The Skins' running game is unlikely to fare much better. Clinton Portis is a candidate to start slow after averaging 3.1 YPC on just 11 preseason carries and 2.87 yards-per in his last five "real" games. Having lost his third-down job to Ladell Betts, it's not only Portis' production that threatens to be down. His role is declining.
St. Louis @ Seattle
New Seahawks offensive coordinator Greg Knapp, one of the run-heaviest minds of our generation, will be able to execute his game plan to the fullest against a Rams defense that already lost DT Adam Carriker for the season and is juggling bodies at outside linebacker. St. Louis will start 2008 Mr. Irrelevant David Vobora on the strong side, and career practice body Gary Gibson on the interior. Expect reduced pass attempts from Matt Hasselbeck and a surprisingly strong game from Jim Mora-alleged feature back Julius Jones...We're not in love with T.J. Houshmandzadeh this year, and while he needs to be started his matchup isn't that great on paper. The Rams will likely shadow Housh with physical LCB Ronald Bartell, who is a good enough tackler to prevent Houshmandzadeh from racking up yards after the catch. Housh could catch 6-9 balls and still not top 100 yards.
New split end Laurent Robinson showed the best rapport with Rams quarterbacks this preseason, hauling in a team-high 10 passes for 137 yards to secure a starting job. Donnie Avery is a slightly better talent, but Robinson's matchup is better this time around. With Marcus Trufant (back) out, the 6'2/194-pound speedster will likely see a lot of 30-year-old RCB Ken Lucas in coverage. Robinson is a better Week 1 play than Avery, who missed the entire preseason with a stress fracture...Steven Jackson is another must-play that we'd limit expectations for. Seattle returns high-motor DE Patrick Kerney, added 300-pound DE Cory Redding via free agency, and drafted new strong-side linebacker Aaron Curry. The Rams will need to pass to win. Jackson can still be a major factor as a receiver out of the backfield, but his rushing total may be unimpressive.
Sunday Night Football
Chicago @ Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers couldn't have had a better preseason (77.4% completions, 11.7 YPA, 5:0 TDs to INTs) and it'll carry over to Sunday night. Chicago is bound to have communication problems in the backend, as FS Danieal Manning, LCB Charles Tillman, and RCB Zackary Bowman all sat out most or all of camp with injuries. Greg Jennings, cleared from his preseason concussion, has explosion potential...new assistant Rod Marinelli will help Chicago's defensive line, but Ryan Grant remains a must-start RB2. He averaged a solid 4.4 YPC in August and the Bears are unsettled at nose tackle after losing Dusty Dvoracek for the year. DEs Adewale Ogunleye, 32, and Alex Brown, 30, are also getting "up there" in age...Wait and see how Packers TE Jermichael Finley fares early on before considering him. Green Bay's loaded receiver corps is likely to hog targets.
Rather than test the Packers' dynamic Charles Woodson-Al Harris corner duo, look for Bears coordinator Ron Turner to run a ball-control offense in the opener. Turner was aggressive this preseason -- Chicago ranked sixth in the NFL with a 7.6 YPA -- but it'd be much smarter to utilize Matt Forte heavily against Green Bay's transitioning front seven...If any non-Forte pass catcher on the Bears is poised for a big game, it's Greg Olsen. Woodson and Harris will give raw receivers Devin Hester and Earl Bennett fits. Olsen will see a combination of tackle-first, cover-later SS Atari Bigby and ILB Nick Barnett (knee) in coverage over the middle. Olsen is an every-week starter.
Monday Night Football
Buffalo @ New England
Whether Tom Brady is "all the way" back from knee surgery is the subject of some debate among nitpicky analysts. We deal in facts and numbers. Brady posted a 7.7 YPA, threw two touchdowns to no interceptions, and demonstrated the ability to take hits this preseason. He'll light up a Bills secondary that trots out new starting SS Bryan Scott and is unlikely to generate consistent pass rush...Fred Taylor will probably get the start, but the Pats will continue to use all their backs as rotating role players. Laurence Maroney will eat into early-down carries, BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a candidate for goal-line work, and Kevin Faulk will catch the passes. It's still a situation to avoid...Randy Moss (6'4/210) has an unfair size advantage on Bills LCB Terrence McGee (5'9/198) and RCB Leodis McKelvin (5'10/184). It's also hard to imagine Buffalo having answers for Wes Welker in three-receiver sets. Second-year player Reggie Corner will cover the slot, and likely struggle with Welker's precision routes. By the way, Welker (undisclosed) is going to play.
Buffalo has an ugly situation brewing in front of Trent Edwards. New blind-side tackle Demetrius Bell is athletic, but has played zero career snaps and will square off with Pats RE Ty Warren's devastating bull rush in Monday night's affair. On the strong side, New England LE Derrick Burgess is a mismatch for immobile Bills RT Brad Butler. Inside, Vince Wilfork is likely to manhandle light-in-the-pants LG Andy Levitre, who couldn't even stop Titans journeyman Kevin Vickerson in the preseason. Completely avoid Edwards...If the Patriots dominate the trenches as we anticipate, Buffalo may resort to frequent Fred Jackson dumpoffs. Jackson is a solid RB2 play in PPR leagues.
San Diego @ Oakland
No team was worse than San Diego at defending tight ends in '08, and that may not change. Rookie Kevin Ellison didn't step up to grab the strong safety job, so burnable starter Clinton Hart returns. Expect a big night for Zach Miller...The Bolts will use a rotation of Shawne Merriman and rookie Larry English against Raiders LT Mario Henderson. Expect a sack or two between them and a pair of picks from JaMarcus Russell with Bolts RCB Antonio Cromartie back healthy...Justin Fargas (hamstring) hasn't practiced in nearly three weeks and is unlikely to play a substantial role in Week 1. This game should re-energize the Darren McFadden hype train. He's a threat for 25 touches even if Oakland falls behind early because McFadden is an outstanding receiver.
It's easy to imagine LaDainian Tomlinson looking like his old self against the Richard Seymour-less Raiders. Oakland felt desperate to deal for Seymour because undersized RE Trevor Scott was getting blown off the ball all preseason. Scott will start Monday, and the front seven will remain among the league's leakiest. While the rest of the onlookers are saying "he's baaack," Tomlinson owners should sell high before Week 2...Vincent Jackson is always subject to being shut down when the Bolts play Oakland because he typically lines up across from Nnamdi Asomugha. It could be different this time around, as Asomugha has a club on his hand after suffering a "chip" fracture in August. The All Pro may struggle to knock V-Jax off his routes in press coverage.
Having the most opinions and background will prepare you best.
1:00PM ET Games
Miami @ Atlanta
The Dolphins had to revamp their secondary after giving up the eighth most passing yards in the league last year, but the newcomers figure to experience growing pains. Rookie RCB Sean Smith looked lost at times this preseason, and new FS Gibril Wilson has always been a better run stopper than cover man. Matt Ryan is a must-start in this matchup...Michael Turner stands to benefit greatly from the addition of Tony Gonzalez, who will keep at least one safety (likely SS Yeremiah Bell) out of the box and command intermittent double teams. The Fins' run defense was sturdy in '08, but Turner remains a solid bet for 90 yards and a score...LCB Will Allen is Miami's top cover corner, but Bill Parcells indicated that he believes the 31-year-old is declining by giving him a fairly below-market new contract this offseason, then drafting corners with his top two picks. Roddy White's holdout lasted just a week and he was explosive in the preseason. He'll give the 31-year-old Allen fits on Sunday. Expect 28+ points from Atlanta's offense.
Split end Ted Ginn Jr. will likely face Falcons RCB Chris Houston in primary coverage. Houston's first two years have been up and down, but he excels in press-man, and Ginn struggled to beat the jam in August, finishing the preseason with three catches. He's a borderline WR3...Miami never formally named a No. 2 receiver, but Davone Bess is first on the depth chart and plays in the slot. He's a better bet than Ginn for a high catch total facing weak LCB Brent Grimes and/or athletically limited nickel back Chevis Jackson...The Fins' best approach in this road game would be to use Ronnie Brown relentlessly on the Georgia Dome turf and keep Ryan on the sidelines. Brown should finish with 25 touches even if Miami is playing catch-up. He'll rarely come off field.
Kansas City @ Baltimore
Looking for a safe bet to lead all Week 1 receivers in targets? Dwayne Bowe is your man. The Chiefs have no hope of a ground game against a Ravens club that ranked third in '08 run defense and returns NT Kelly Gregg after he missed last season. Play Bowe with confidence, no matter who starts at QB...Bench the rest of your Chiefs, literally. We don't know if Mark Bradley will start despite his first-team flanker listing, and Jamaal Charles may end up with double the touches of Larry Johnson. Kansas City figures to fall behind early, and Charles is the passing-down back.
Ray Rice is a must-start RB2 against a Chiefs defense that implements the 3-4 despite lacking ideal personnel. Rookies Michael Oher (Ravens RT) and Tyson Jackson (Chiefs LE) may play to a draw on the strong side, but C Matt Birk and LG Ben Grubbs should dominate Chiefs NT Ron Edwards up the gut. Rice is also a demon on check downs and K.C. doesn't have the speed at outside 'backer or safety to stop him. Look for 150 all-purpose yards...Mark Clayton is a must-sit considering his balky hamstring, lost camp, and likely matchup with Chiefs top corner Brandon Flowers, but flanker/slot man Derrick Mason's route running will be a handful for LCB Brandon Carr. Carr was almost strictly a zone corner in 2008 and is just now learning to play man...Despite positive camp reports about Todd Heap, stay away until he shows something in a real game.
Philadelphia @ Carolina
It's natural to worry about Brian Westbrook at 30 coming off dual leg surgeries, but few matchups would give him a better chance to start hot. Carolina won't replace massive NT Maake Kemoeatu (torn Achilles) and already wasn't potent against the run. With MLB Jon Beason (knee) still banged up, Westbrook is a threat for 100 total yards and a TD even on 15-17 touches...Donovan McNabb should be in fantasy lineups, but the Eagles would be smart to go run heavy, also using LeSean McCoy early and often...If there's one flaw in Birds flanker DeSean Jackson's game, it's that he isn't overly physical. He'll be shadowed by Carolina LCB Chris Gamble, another speedster with better size than Jackson. D-Jax is more of a WR3 than a WR2 in this matchup...Bench TE Brent Celek. He'll be a better bet when Philly plays teams it will have to pass on to beat.
Jonathan Stewart's return from an Achilles injury won't hurt DeAngelo Williams yet. Stewart isn't ready for his usual carry-sharing role, and Williams faces an Eagles defense that will sorely miss MLB Stewart Bradley (ACL tear). Quick fix Omar Gaither isn't half the run defender...Eagles RCB Sheldon Brown is coming off a great year, but turned 30 this spring and was pushed by former Patriot Ellis Hobbs for a starting job in August. Susceptible to the deep pass, he's unlikely to stop Steve Smith with late-round rookie Macho Harris as Brown's "help" along the sideline...Muhsin Muhammad is an obvious "sit" against LCB Asante Samuel. No Panthers tight ends are worth consideration.
Denver @ Cincinnati
The Denver backfield is to be avoided until we see clarity, assuming it ever comes. 31-year-old Correll Buckhalter will start, eventual lead back Knowshon Moreno (knee) wasn't cleared for contact until Thursday, and Peyton Hillis was the Broncos' best option this preseason. Cincy's run defense will surprise this year, and this is a three-headed monster until further notice...Use Brandon Marshall as a WR3, but limit expectations. He'll often square off with underrated Bengals RCB Leon Hall, may rotate with Jabar Gaffney, and his quarterback is less than 100 percent...Kyle Orton figures to have accuracy problems in the vertical game, but Eddie Royal is a strong bet for 8-10 catches. Royal and Orton showed an incredible rapport throughout August and Orton's lacerated finger shouldn't affect his throws as much underneath, where Royal is an unrivaled route runner.
Carson Palmer has a favorable matchup against the NFL's oldest secondary. Speed merchants Chad Ochocinco and Chris Henry, and quick possession wideout Laveranues Coles will keep CBs Champ Bailey (31) and Andre' Goodman (31) on their heels, with 36-year-old S Brian Dawkins as their help. Dawkins looked several steps too slow in August...Henry isn't a recommended play yet, but keep an eye on how he is employed. Henry earned a playing-time bump after an awesome preseason, but we need to know that he'll play over Andre Caldwell in three-wideout sets before using him...The Broncos' pass rush showed improvement as one of only 13 teams to generate double-digit preseason sacks, but their run defense remains a work in progress moving to a 3-4. Cedric Benson won't catch any passes, but won't see any eight-man fronts either.
Minnesota @ Cleveland
Week 7 is our educated guess as to when James Davis will unseat Jamal Lewis. Lewis is certain to struggle Sunday with Vikings DTs Kevin and Pat Williams' suspensions on hold, and also gets Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the first six games...Davis isn't playable yet, but he's already the Browns' third-down specialist and rotates in on early downs...Brady Quinn will probably have to throw 35-39 times to offset either 1) Lewis' ineffectiveness against 2008's No. 1 run defense, or 2) an early lead for Minnesota. He's a fine two-QB league start and figures to target Braylon Edwards heavily, although Edwards will be shadowed by Vikings Pro Bowl CB Antoine Winfield.
We can confidently say that Adrian Peterson will gash the Browns (28th in run defense last year). The only notable upgrade to their starting front seven was DE Kenyon Coleman, who may have missed the Jets' final cut had Eric Mangini not traded for him. Expect a decidedly run-heavy mindset from Minnesota...Brett Favre admits he isn't 100 percent "mentally or physically," and Bernard Berrian (hamstring) was limited in practice all week. Short-route targets Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe are better bets to lead Minnesota in catches...Sidney Rice will remain a key red-zone guy for the Vikes, but his week-to-week production will be highly inconsistent.
NY Jets @ Houston
New Jets RCB Lito Sheppard hasn't overcome the coverage woes that plagued him late in his Eagles career. He was a liability throughout August and will be picked on by Matt Schaub. The absence of DE Shaun Ellis and OLB Calvin Pace -- two of New York's top three pass rushers -- due to suspension won't hurt Schaub's cause...Ellis' loss creates a void at left end, which will be "filled" by lackluster reserves Mike DeVito (hamstring) and Sione Pouha (one start in five years). It's setup to be a big day for the Texans' offense, Steve Slaton included...The Jets used shutdown LCB Darrelle Revis as a "shadow" corner last year, but it's unclear if Rex Ryan will keep that plan in place. Either way, Andre Johnson is an obvious must play. Avoid Kevin Walter (hamstring).
The Texans' front four got heavier this offseason. LE Antonio Smith (6'4/285) and NT Shaun Cody (6'4/310) are the new starters. All four down linemen are at least 285 pounds. A make-you-miss back like Leon Washington has a better chance of success than Thomas Jones, a grinding runner, or power option Shonn Greene...Texans RCB Dunta Robinson will square off with split end Jerricho Cotchery for much of the day. It's a good matchup for Jerricho because Robinson is rusty after ending his holdout just days ago...However, camp star Dustin Keller may still lead the Jets in receiving yardage, as he'll see a lot of SS Dominique Barber in coverage. Barber can hit, but Keller's speed (4.5-flat forty) gives him a significant edge over Marion's brother (4.64).
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
The Colts won't ease Donald Brown into the lineup. He'll immediately be used in a series-by-series rotation with Joseph Addai, giving him a shot at 13-17 touches. Still, it's a good week to "wait and see" on this backfield. Jags rookie DT Terrance Knighton (6'3/321) had a standout camp and may finally be the Marcus Stroud successor Jacksonville's been desperate for so long...LCB Rashean Mathis is sure to follow Colts split end Reggie Wayne all over the field. The starter opposite Mathis, third-round pick Derek Cox, missed much of camp due to injury and played college ball at William & Mary, leaving him without experience against anyone remotely resembling NFL wideouts. First-year starter Anthony Gonzalez's breakout game is at hand.
The Colts won't have SS Bob Sanders (knee), so former undrafted free agent Melvin Bullitt will start. Further secondary issues lie at right cornerback, where either diminutive Tim Jennings or raw underclassman rookie Jerraud Powers will stand in. With LCB Kelvin Hayden likely to keep Torry Holt in check, Troy Williamson has a good shot to build on his stellar preseason in Week 1. Then sell high...DT Ed Johnson is serving a one-game suspension, the Colts are moving smallish DE Robert Mathis back into a full-time role, and second-round pick Fili Moala failed to distinguish himself in camp. Add in Sanders' absence and Maurice Jones-Drew should start piping hot.
Detroit @ New Orleans
The Saints know they don't need to risk Pierre Thomas aggravating his MCL sprain to beat Detroit at home and will almost certainly hold him out. That sets up Mike Bell for 16-19 carries and all goal-line chances, where Sean Payton is confident in the former Bronco. Meet your next Frisman Jackson/Dante Rosario Week 1 superhero...All Saints starting skill players should be in lineups against a Lions defense that is near certain to be porous again. Detroit lacks a shutdown corner between Phillip Buchanon and Anthony Henry, and starts a rookie (Louis Delmas) and career special teamer (Kalvin Pearson) at safety. It's a severe mismatch favoring the NFL's top passing team.
We highly recommend the Saints' fantasy defense in Matthew Stafford's debut. Stafford showed poise and the ability to make all the throws in August, but was pick prone and New Orleans has upgraded its secondary immensely. That DEs Will Smith and Charles Grant will avoid suspension is the clincher...Stafford is a candidate for 33-37 attempts, as the Lions figure to be playing catch-up after the Saints' first or second drive. Keep your Detroit skill players going. Throwing often won't hurt Kevin Smith, who stays on the field in passing situations. He's an every-down back.
Dallas @ Tampa Bay
The Bucs' late-preseason shakeup at safety (Jermaine Phillips moved back to DB after gaining weight all offseason to play linebacker) bodes well for tight ends to start hot against them. Jason Witten, who will see increased red-zone targets with Terrell Owens out of Big D, is first to benefit...One beat writer talked up a 50:50 split between Marion Barber and Felix Jones, but that's highly unlikely. Jones is a pace-change back with kick return ability and soft hands, but Barber is extremely difficult to pull off the field because of his power, sound blitz pickups, and receiving skills. He'll be a much better bet for touchdowns than Jones all year...Look for 34-year-old RCB Ronde Barber to cover Roy Williams while Aqib Talib squares off against the Miles Austin-Patrick Crayton combo at strong-side wideout. We like Williams to silence the doubters in Week 1.
If you can believe it, Dallas' front seven got bigger with the change from Chris Canty to Igor Olshansky at right defensive end. New strong outside linebacker Anthony Spencer is also a major run-stopping upgrade over castoff Greg Ellis. The Bucs' 2-2-1 rotation already caps any of their backs' upsides. It's very difficult to imagine starting one...Antonio Bryant (knee) caught no passes this preseason from Byron Leftwich. Leftwich (5.25 YPA, 48.8 completion rate) was downright awful. Let's wait a week before plugging in any Bucs pass catchers besides TE Kellen Winslow.
4:15PM ET Games
San Francisco @ Arizona
The Cards' 0-4 preseason is of no concern for the offense. Arizona led the NFL in passing yards despite not game planning for one of its opponents. Kurt Warner will start hot against a Niners secondary that trots out Dashon Goldson (two career starts) and coverage liability Michael Lewis at safety, and brittle Shawntae Spencer (one start since '06) at right corner. Larry Fitzgerald will likely see Spencer in primary coverage, while Nate Clements shadows Anquan Boldin...Arizona will use fewer three-wide sets this year; avoid Steve Breaston...With a good shot at 20 touches, Tim Hightower is a safer play than Chris Wells. Wells may be the lead back by midseason, but Hightower's 4.8 preseason YPC and passing-down skills locked him into the Week 1 starting job.
The 49ers will go run heavy all year, but particularly on Sunday. Only three teams gave up more rushing touchdowns than Arizona this preseason. Look for 25 carries and a TD from Frank Gore, with Glen Coffee also active...Leave Shaun Hill and the 49ers' receivers on your bench. Josh Morgan was surprisingly quiet in August (three catches, 20 yards), and Hill seemed to show more rapport with slow slot guy Arnaz Battle...You shouldn't need a last-minute tight end in Week 1, but Vernon Davis is a good bet if you do. The Cards will use SS Adrian Wilson as a linebacker/safety, with FS Antrel Rolle on Davis. Rolle has been oft-burned since entering the league.Washington @ NY Giants
Brandon Jacobs is a must-start every time he suits up, but Ahmad Bradshaw may give the hefty Redskins defensive line more problems. Bradshaw's shake-and-bake style, surprising pop, and elusiveness in space will be a handful for oversized and aging DLs Phillip Daniels and Cornelius Griffin. Albert Haynesworth is quick off the snap, but does little in pursuit, while RE Andre Carter is mostly a one-trick pass-rushing pony. Use Bradshaw in a flex spot if you're searching for options...The Giants' passing game is to be avoided until a wideout steps up. A Domenik Hixon-Mario Manningham-Hakeem Nicks committee at split end is possible, and Steve Smith is a possession target with weak red-zone skills.
The Giants changed defensive coordinators this offseason, promoting LBs coach Bill Sheridan from within. The player moves, however, strongly indicate that there will be no shortage of fire-zone blitzes and pressure from all angles. That's a major concern for a Redskins line that returns its two best players (LT Chris Samuels and RG Randy Thomas) at age 32+ and coming off surgery. It'll be a long day for Jim Zorn's passing offense...The Skins' running game is unlikely to fare much better. Clinton Portis is a candidate to start slow after averaging 3.1 YPC on just 11 preseason carries and 2.87 yards-per in his last five "real" games. Having lost his third-down job to Ladell Betts, it's not only Portis' production that threatens to be down. His role is declining.
St. Louis @ Seattle
New Seahawks offensive coordinator Greg Knapp, one of the run-heaviest minds of our generation, will be able to execute his game plan to the fullest against a Rams defense that already lost DT Adam Carriker for the season and is juggling bodies at outside linebacker. St. Louis will start 2008 Mr. Irrelevant David Vobora on the strong side, and career practice body Gary Gibson on the interior. Expect reduced pass attempts from Matt Hasselbeck and a surprisingly strong game from Jim Mora-alleged feature back Julius Jones...We're not in love with T.J. Houshmandzadeh this year, and while he needs to be started his matchup isn't that great on paper. The Rams will likely shadow Housh with physical LCB Ronald Bartell, who is a good enough tackler to prevent Houshmandzadeh from racking up yards after the catch. Housh could catch 6-9 balls and still not top 100 yards.
New split end Laurent Robinson showed the best rapport with Rams quarterbacks this preseason, hauling in a team-high 10 passes for 137 yards to secure a starting job. Donnie Avery is a slightly better talent, but Robinson's matchup is better this time around. With Marcus Trufant (back) out, the 6'2/194-pound speedster will likely see a lot of 30-year-old RCB Ken Lucas in coverage. Robinson is a better Week 1 play than Avery, who missed the entire preseason with a stress fracture...Steven Jackson is another must-play that we'd limit expectations for. Seattle returns high-motor DE Patrick Kerney, added 300-pound DE Cory Redding via free agency, and drafted new strong-side linebacker Aaron Curry. The Rams will need to pass to win. Jackson can still be a major factor as a receiver out of the backfield, but his rushing total may be unimpressive.
Sunday Night Football
Chicago @ Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers couldn't have had a better preseason (77.4% completions, 11.7 YPA, 5:0 TDs to INTs) and it'll carry over to Sunday night. Chicago is bound to have communication problems in the backend, as FS Danieal Manning, LCB Charles Tillman, and RCB Zackary Bowman all sat out most or all of camp with injuries. Greg Jennings, cleared from his preseason concussion, has explosion potential...new assistant Rod Marinelli will help Chicago's defensive line, but Ryan Grant remains a must-start RB2. He averaged a solid 4.4 YPC in August and the Bears are unsettled at nose tackle after losing Dusty Dvoracek for the year. DEs Adewale Ogunleye, 32, and Alex Brown, 30, are also getting "up there" in age...Wait and see how Packers TE Jermichael Finley fares early on before considering him. Green Bay's loaded receiver corps is likely to hog targets.
Rather than test the Packers' dynamic Charles Woodson-Al Harris corner duo, look for Bears coordinator Ron Turner to run a ball-control offense in the opener. Turner was aggressive this preseason -- Chicago ranked sixth in the NFL with a 7.6 YPA -- but it'd be much smarter to utilize Matt Forte heavily against Green Bay's transitioning front seven...If any non-Forte pass catcher on the Bears is poised for a big game, it's Greg Olsen. Woodson and Harris will give raw receivers Devin Hester and Earl Bennett fits. Olsen will see a combination of tackle-first, cover-later SS Atari Bigby and ILB Nick Barnett (knee) in coverage over the middle. Olsen is an every-week starter.
Monday Night Football
Buffalo @ New England
Whether Tom Brady is "all the way" back from knee surgery is the subject of some debate among nitpicky analysts. We deal in facts and numbers. Brady posted a 7.7 YPA, threw two touchdowns to no interceptions, and demonstrated the ability to take hits this preseason. He'll light up a Bills secondary that trots out new starting SS Bryan Scott and is unlikely to generate consistent pass rush...Fred Taylor will probably get the start, but the Pats will continue to use all their backs as rotating role players. Laurence Maroney will eat into early-down carries, BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a candidate for goal-line work, and Kevin Faulk will catch the passes. It's still a situation to avoid...Randy Moss (6'4/210) has an unfair size advantage on Bills LCB Terrence McGee (5'9/198) and RCB Leodis McKelvin (5'10/184). It's also hard to imagine Buffalo having answers for Wes Welker in three-receiver sets. Second-year player Reggie Corner will cover the slot, and likely struggle with Welker's precision routes. By the way, Welker (undisclosed) is going to play.
Buffalo has an ugly situation brewing in front of Trent Edwards. New blind-side tackle Demetrius Bell is athletic, but has played zero career snaps and will square off with Pats RE Ty Warren's devastating bull rush in Monday night's affair. On the strong side, New England LE Derrick Burgess is a mismatch for immobile Bills RT Brad Butler. Inside, Vince Wilfork is likely to manhandle light-in-the-pants LG Andy Levitre, who couldn't even stop Titans journeyman Kevin Vickerson in the preseason. Completely avoid Edwards...If the Patriots dominate the trenches as we anticipate, Buffalo may resort to frequent Fred Jackson dumpoffs. Jackson is a solid RB2 play in PPR leagues.
San Diego @ Oakland
No team was worse than San Diego at defending tight ends in '08, and that may not change. Rookie Kevin Ellison didn't step up to grab the strong safety job, so burnable starter Clinton Hart returns. Expect a big night for Zach Miller...The Bolts will use a rotation of Shawne Merriman and rookie Larry English against Raiders LT Mario Henderson. Expect a sack or two between them and a pair of picks from JaMarcus Russell with Bolts RCB Antonio Cromartie back healthy...Justin Fargas (hamstring) hasn't practiced in nearly three weeks and is unlikely to play a substantial role in Week 1. This game should re-energize the Darren McFadden hype train. He's a threat for 25 touches even if Oakland falls behind early because McFadden is an outstanding receiver.
It's easy to imagine LaDainian Tomlinson looking like his old self against the Richard Seymour-less Raiders. Oakland felt desperate to deal for Seymour because undersized RE Trevor Scott was getting blown off the ball all preseason. Scott will start Monday, and the front seven will remain among the league's leakiest. While the rest of the onlookers are saying "he's baaack," Tomlinson owners should sell high before Week 2...Vincent Jackson is always subject to being shut down when the Bolts play Oakland because he typically lines up across from Nnamdi Asomugha. It could be different this time around, as Asomugha has a club on his hand after suffering a "chip" fracture in August. The All Pro may struggle to knock V-Jax off his routes in press coverage.
