Week 1 is in the book.

[yyz]

I decided not to make any wagers today. This means I will have a losing week, but I won't force a play.

On the week I went 6-3, but the losses were all bigger wagers. (Isn't that how it goes?)

-$12 isn't bad. As much as I would like to show a profit, I didn't dig a hole....

week 1: 6-3 -$12----($988)

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"You can't polish a turd."

[This message has been edited by yyz (edited 11-25-2001).]

 

[Anders]

I know it's stating the obvious yyz and I apologise for that, but I think it's worth bringing up the topic of units per play.

I'm of the "one unit per play" school - a 2-unit play may come along for me once a week possibly.

Many others here, including some outstanding cappers with winning records, favour a "sliding scale".

But if you look at MJ's consensus tool for the point of a neutral ground for discussion, have a look at how many cappers are around 50%, even some near 54%, yet have still lost a lot of units. Then look at the leaderboard/top page. Some of those also play more units on one play than another but they also have the % above 55% and much higher.

Would be keen on the feedback of many more on this.

Would like to know yyz on how tough the 1st week was in terms of discipline, money management etc. Did you feel like a different 'capper?

Thanks

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I want you to know that this will go down on your permanent record!
Oh yeah?
Well don't get so distressed.
Did I happen to mention that I'm impressed?

 

[yyz]

The only "hard part" of this, is continuing to swallow the loss of bigger wagers.

In my book, some bets just warrant a bigger wager. If I think the line is well off from my projection, I will put more at risk. Of the losses I had this week, the Packers hurt the most. I had that game pegged solid, and lose on the 'look what I found!' scores that the Lions made. These come and go, and I'll win some I deserved to lose, so i won't cry too loudly.

Betting "small" amounts does not bother me. I have never been a big hitter. In my 1-4 unit system, a 'unit' was $25, so scaling back is not really 'scaling back'.

The one point I am trying to stress to the members here, is that your bankroll determines what you can wager.

Even my $44 and $55 are pushing the edge of what I should risk with a $1000 kick, that's why there will be few of them. I am willing to bet that most guys who wager, have an account of less than $1000, yet make $100 wagers! You cannot do that, and expect to be around for very long.

My wagers will be in $5 increments from $15-$50. That turns my "unit system" on it's ear a little, but in the long run, it should prove to be more fine tuned. Now, I know some of you see a $17.50 wager to win $15 and laugh your ass off! I don't mind. I was never in this to make money, I was in it for fun.....That has changed a bit, as I want to start getting payouts from these places a little more often than twice a year! Since coming to Madjacks, I have spent far too much time involved with sports wagering to not be making money at it. As I said, it does not have to be much money, but it does need to be consistant. Thus, I came up with the idea that I am currently playing with.

Did I feel different, you ask? Yes! I did in terms of having fewer wagers. I didn't make the $5-$15 'silly' wagers on whims and just to have something going. But, I wagered on only the games I handicapped, which is my main objective here. Quality will prevail. That I promise. If this test period turns out to be a disaster, I will still lose less money than I normally would, due to fewer wagers. I fully expect the breaks will even out, and I will sit between 47%-55% winners. That is why the 'unit' price is so important....win the big, and lose the small.

You might be right in your approach of wagering the same unit. Time will be the judge of that for me. If I need to start doing that, I will. (It is hard to look at a 6-3 record, and be down cash!)

I am greatful for the advice, and hope you guys keep it coming!

 

[Skinar]

I agree with Anders on flat betting versus a point or star system. Sometimes I will double a particular bet from my normal unit play but that's the maximum. And it's fairly rare. I've heard this type of betting as 'attempting to leverage your bankroll'. It's also referred to as the Kelly system. A pro player I know calls it the 'Kevorkian' system.

By the way, the amount you play on your units is irrelevant. I admire your honesty however. Keep track of your rating system, then at the end of your trial, compare your results against a flat-betting system. I look forward to seeing the results.

Good Luck Always

Skinar

 

[goofy]

i agree with the standard unit deal. when you make a play, obviously you feel like it's gonna be a winner, so it's hard to know where to double up on.

having said that, i recognize that sometimes I "get the feeling" about a game and double up but i try no to do it too often.

out of curiosity i went back and looked at all my plays since the nfl began (this includes cfb, nba, cbb) and had roughly 150 plays. I doubled up 16 times and went 10-5-1.

for me it worked out but i think that the thing that pleased me here is I only doubled up about 10% of the time which means i wasn't betting emotionally or doing alot of chasing. regardless of the extra money i made from doubling i would still be up.

 

[buddy]

yyz,

If you start with a $1000 bankroll, what return % are you looking for in a college/NFL season?

100%, 200, 300, 400, ????

Do you use a local or an offshore?

Do you have more than one betting strategy?

Do you trust your handicapping more than anyone else's or do you lurk?

Or is it a combination?

I think all of the above questions affect how a person bets and what he should realistically expect as a return on his investment.

 

[bmc]

Even units here.
Been doin' that for a year now.
Last October I was up % & down $.
Decided I didn't want any more of that.

 

[yyz]

Buddy,

If you start with a $1000 bankroll, what return % are you looking for in a college/NFL season?

100%, 200, 300, 400, ????

There was the problem. I never had a set goal. In this scenario over the 8 week span, I am looking for a return of 5%-13%


Do you use a local or an offshore?

I have 8 offshore accounts.

Do you have more than one betting strategy?

I don't know what you define 'strategy' as, but I use statistical data, and look at how the team has played over a span of 5-7 games in sports other than football. Football is a little more tricky. This sport I will use rivalry, and past history to some extent. I have other criteria, but that is the meat of the matter.

Do you trust your handicapping more than anyone else's or do you lurk?

I do my own work, for the most part. I love to hear what the guys here have to say, and I feel better about my play, if I see some of the guys I respect on it as well. I find it real hard to pull the trigger on plays of other cappers. I have, and I do, but it is real hard to take if you can't play all of another capper's plays. By this, I mean: If I only have enough to bet someone's "bigger" rated plays, and they lose, but most of his smaller plays win, he may have made money on the day, and I lost. I don't like that feeling. I would love to blindly follow a winner, but when they hit a rough streak, I want to spit on them! (not literally, of course......but still, it is not fair to them, so that is why I shy away from others plays.)

I hope that answers you q's!

Thanks.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I like same wager play.Out of 563 match plays posted in golf I had only 5 double plays of which 3 lost and 2 pushed,might explain my view.However there are those that do well betting more on stronger plays and can't really say whose right and wrong.I am however adamantly against the Kelly method where you increase your bets when your winning and decrease when your losing.Great in theory if you can tell when winning streak starts and stops.Streaks run in spurts and the minute you get on a roll,build the nest and increase bets the worm turns.This theory could have an adverse effect on whats its trying to accomplish.By playing 1 unit the man has to get it back same way I got.I will listen to the contrary if they can show me another way that guarantees me a winner if I hit 53% of plays on a 10cent line.

 

[yyz]

DTB,

We have exactly the same number of posts!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Shazam Odds of that in same thread is astronomical!

 

[alienx]

YYZ,
It takes a lot of self control. I have decided to change the way I managed my money this year. It was after getting my ass handed to me.
Last year I had a local and minimum was $50. (Loser pays $55). And I was rarely playing the minimum. Had many nights I have bet more then what I had in my pocket. Finally Giants-Dallas game (last year) put me in a big hole. Had to borrow money to pay my bookie(first and the last time). Now I am going w/ $10 $20 $25.

Doing better this year. One problem : I keep thinking if I was betting the amount I bet last year I would be up couple thousand instead of couple hundered.