Browns by 3
This might be an excellent hedge opportunity because given the nature of these two teams, a 3-point win by the Browns is quite conceivable. Browns defense has evolved into one of the NFL's better units while the offense has work to do. This increases the likelihood of a late FG by the Browns winning the game. The problem is -- it's impossible to tell which way the line might move on this game as we get closer to opening week. Chiefs looked strong at times in last year's pre-season and with coach Vermiel and QB Green now in their second year working together, Kansas City could be in a position to run up points. I don't expect the line to drop to 2.5 or lower unless the Browns get hurt by lots in injuries. But, I can see the line moving to 3.5 under the right conditions. That's not quite enough to justify the hedge, unless we can either pick up the 3 outright (no push) or gain the 3 and the 4 together. No play.
This might be an excellent hedge opportunity because given the nature of these two teams, a 3-point win by the Browns is quite conceivable. Browns defense has evolved into one of the NFL's better units while the offense has work to do. This increases the likelihood of a late FG by the Browns winning the game. The problem is -- it's impossible to tell which way the line might move on this game as we get closer to opening week. Chiefs looked strong at times in last year's pre-season and with coach Vermiel and QB Green now in their second year working together, Kansas City could be in a position to run up points. I don't expect the line to drop to 2.5 or lower unless the Browns get hurt by lots in injuries. But, I can see the line moving to 3.5 under the right conditions. That's not quite enough to justify the hedge, unless we can either pick up the 3 outright (no push) or gain the 3 and the 4 together. No play.
