Week 1

Clem D

Mad Pisser
Forum Member
May 26, 2004
11,277
31
0
52
Long Branch NJ
Hey guys, first off let me say I miss being around here a lot. I have been so busy with some new endeavors and just trying to grind out a life betting. I will normally post my plays on wednesdays or thursdays, but I will not have the time to unfortunately to read and respond to everyones posts and threads as in the past. Ofcourse I will read some of my favorites Ar182, Master Capper just to name a few.
In Football I believe you need to set a goal. I have two. A certain amount I want to earn and a certain percentage. That dollar amount Im keeping to myself. The percentage I'm shooting for is 62%. Trying to find some old threads to see where I was last year. (I think I was a touch Below).

Anyway here are the selections in the League where I pray for my pay.

Rule 1 in football betting is do not let 1 player being out influence your plays. Yes Big Ben is out, but teams normally respond well the first game a qb is out. Factor in home field, night game and an emotional night at that. Linesmakers had this line as high as 5.5 I believe with Ben in. This is a huge drop. Steeler defense will carry them home. By 7

Pitt pk
440/400


Tampa / Baltimore over 33.5
To teams with a history of good defenses and low scoring offenses. Thing is Simms has the targets to light things up. Both teams have the potential tocause turnovers and score that one freak touchdown you need to get over this number .

440/400


Bears -3 (120)

I don't like laying 3.5 on the road so I bought the hook. Bears should beat the packers up. Farve is an interception machine at this stage of his career. Not much else to say. If the Pack win more than 4 Id be shocked.

480//400


Bears over 35

Bears defense will score here. Look for a 24-3 game entering the 4th with Farve throwing a td each way in the final quarter

330/300
 

IntenseOperator

DeweyOxburger
Forum Member
Sep 16, 2003
17,897
63
0
Chicago
I think you are right on about the Bears Clem. The coaches have been holding them back all preseason and pointing to game one for a month now. Think they open things up a bit in the running and passing game.
 

Killrus

Registered User
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Sep 12, 2005
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Los Angeles, CA
high hopes!

high hopes!

I bet so many people are hoping for a repeat performance of last season. Hell, I am really hoping for that! First week picks look really solid. Good luck this year and thanks for contributing!


Was hoping to see a play on Carolina! I grabbed them at -4.5,,that may be too much,,especially since divisional game :shrug:
 

hammer1

Registered User
Forum Member
Jun 17, 2002
7,791
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Wisconsin and Dorado Puerto Rico
Ur right on about teams responding 1st

Ur right on about teams responding 1st

game after an injury.........learned this many moons ago from some Goombas. For one game teams come together to compensate for the loss of a star....its the 2nd game when the breakdown usually appears.
However.....................in my humble opinion Pitt has more problems that just Big Ben being out.
They have looked lost so far. Pieces missing from last years team.
Best Wishes on your season and endeavor.
Passed up a job at NASA in my youth to pursue what u are doing. Have never looked back.

I'm most likely going to tease the Pats and Miami
so we may both win.
 

gambinoshark

Registered User
Forum Member
Apr 21, 2004
725
1
18
Oakwood, OH
clem, like the steelers pk, a lot of people seem to be overreacting to the VERY VANILLA offensive and defensive sheme they ran in the preseason, plus the staff and batch have had ample time to prepare a game plan, its not like ben went down 20 minutes before kickoff...
 

vakvak17

Registered User
Forum Member
Feb 27, 2006
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Hi Clem,

Glad you felt the same about Pitts. Im betting pitts(-125) 275 to win 220. GL to all(except miama fans)
 

addikted

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 18, 2005
1,127
3
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Ohio
Best of luck Clem, glad to see you back and hope you start of the season on a great note starting tonight!

:thumb:
 

Clem D

Mad Pisser
Forum Member
May 26, 2004
11,277
31
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Long Branch NJ
Plays starting out a little smaller. 500 would be my top play for the first couple weeks.

And just found old thread I did hit over 62% last year. Two years in a row would be tough.

Thanks for all the kind words
 
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