Week 10 Last Man Standing thread

MB MLB 728x90 Jpg

Valuist

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 21, 2001
2,314
0
0
61
Mt. Prospect, IL
OK, here's who I've used so far: Miami, San Diego, Denver, Philly, Indy, Tampa, St. Louis, Buffalo and Atlanta. We still have 5 alive in our pool. I realize others still alive won't have all the same teams used but probably have used a majority of them. Here is my strategy as of Monday morning:

Nov 10-11--2 games look like possible plays; Green Bay at home against Detroit, and Tennessee at home against Houston. If you have GB still available they look obvious BUT there's a couple variables here that may put me on Tenn. First, Tennessee isn't an "obvious" use team and their only likely use will be this next weekend. The Packers still have home games against the Bears and Minny in early December. Secondly, GB plays on Monday night so a short week and we know Favre is hobbled. Must see how he looks tonight first. New England at Chicago? I'm passing there; Bears D looked improved yesterday and they maybe would've won outright if not for horrendous officiating (120 yds of penalties; 6 pass interference calls). Also I don't like taking road teams.

Nov 17-18 This is the killer week; no real standouts. Most alive figure to advance on the Nov 10 week but this week will end numerous pools, IMO. Pitt and GB are both on the road (divisional road games). The against-Houston play may not be good since they already beat the quickly falling Jags in Jville. KC hosts Buffalo and Oakland hosts NE; San Fran goes to SD.

Nov. 24-25 If you haven't used Pittsburgh yet, you may want to save them for this week as they get the (resurgent??) Bengals at home. New England gets Minny at home and we know how bad Minny is outdoors and on grass (the surface that is; Moss may be on grass every game). Oakland goes to Arizona but the Cards spanked them last year in Oakland. The Houston go-against play would be the Giants.

Thats it for now. Haven't looked at December yet. Feel free to post alternative opinions or your selections.
 

GM

PleasureGlutton
Forum Member
Jan 21, 2000
2,962
5
0
122
Toronto, ON, Canada
This Week: Tenn is probably the play. Winners of 3 in a row, let's hope they haven't gotten overconfident. I don't like picking against a team that has just been embarassed though, and there's nothing more embarassing than getting smoked by Cinci. I've already taken GB so that isn't an option for me. Maybe Baltimore here? Cinci's got the monkey off their backs, this is Balt's best chance for a win in a while. Ravens are at Miami the next week, so it's win here or likely drop 4 straight.

Week 11: Too bad you're used the Rams (I haven't), because at home to Chicago this looks like a nice pick to me. Hopefully everyone else in your pool has also taken StL, but I'd bet that isn't the case. Denver should also win (@ Sea), but again I see you don't have them at your disposal. Your competition may have the edge on you this week!! (But then again that's what I thought about my situation this past week, as I "had" to take Pitt, while a couple others were "lucky enough" to still have SD available...and we know what happened there. :) ). Maybe KC is the way to go for you? There's also NYG available to you (vs Wash), but that hardly looks like a sure thing.

Week 12: Why no mention of New Orleans? Home to the Browns this looks solid!! There are a few spots to use NO late in the season, so maybe you had ideas of saving them if this went really long...they look good for weeks 15, 16 & 17...but will it go this far? I also had NE and Den penciled in, so there are a few options for this week that look attractive.

Good luck!
 

Valuist

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 21, 2001
2,314
0
0
61
Mt. Prospect, IL
GM-

Good point about New Orleans when they host Cleveland. I won't play Baltimore this week; I think Cincinnati may come back and win outright. I've noticed that when winless or undefeated teams finally go the other way, they often repeat in the next week.
 
MB NCAAF 728x90 Jpg

Valuist

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 21, 2001
2,314
0
0
61
Mt. Prospect, IL
Tennessee is reportedly very banged up. Toss in the fact that they haven't been real reliable as favorites and I'm using Green Bay as the play. Its an obvious "square" play but I don't want to use them the next week, since they have had all kinds of problems in the Metrodome.
 

Pgh Kid

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 26, 2002
1,266
0
0
Pittsburgh
I wouldn't worry about looking ahead like you are doing because if you lose this week , next week won't matter.Why save a team for a certain week when you might not still be alive to use them another week. Also , with the way injuries occur , a team that looks good next week might have a key player injured this week. I wouldn't play Tenn because Capers used to shut down the oilers when he was with Pitt.Personally , I'd take the Saints but if you'd like to take a home team, try GB or Pitt.
 
Last edited:
MB NCAAF 728x90 Jpg

ELWAYKID

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 3, 2002
82
0
0
THE BRONCOS have the best record AFTER a bye week...and they play at home this week against DA RAIDERS....
raiders are in a tailspin.....TAKE THE BRONCOS...

my name has nothing to do with my pick. :D :D :brows:
 

bej0101

Registered
Forum Member
Nov 12, 2001
11,407
2
38
Uranus
truer words were never spoken " if you lose this week next week won't matter" use the tean you figure is the sure winner green bay i think
 

TheShrimp

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 15, 2002
1,138
0
0
52
bej0101 said:
truer words were never spoken " if you lose this week next week won't matter" use the tean you figure is the sure winner green bay i think
Truer words have been spoken.

Looking ahead and choosing sub-optimally this week can sometimes set you up for the next three weeks. having an 80% of winning this week, and next week is a better strategy than having a 90% chance of winning this week, but only a 60% chance of winning next week. This comes into play more with more people in the pool.

People who win these things don't always choose the team with the best chance of winning THIS week.

For you, valuist, i'd recommend TENN, KC, PITT, SF, GB for the next 5. Since its down to only 5 of you, maybe you can go with GB, KC, PITT, SF and hope its over by then.

But that's only if you think GB has a better chance than TENN of winning this week, which I don't.
 
MB NCAAF 728x90 Jpg

Valuist

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 21, 2001
2,314
0
0
61
Mt. Prospect, IL
With the Titans injury situation and McNair a question mark, I'm a little leery of them. Maybe its a personal thing since last year's pool came down to me and another guy and Tenn cost me the pool. Green Bay is very tough at Lambeau and Morningweg still has no road wins on his coaching resume. Toss in the fact that Houston was humiliated last week maybe they are more focused this week. I definitely wouldn't lay double digits w/Tenn. I actually considered Pittsburgh since they are really playing well w/Maddox and we'll see how Vick's speed translates away from artificial turf but if I lose w/Green Bay, I have no complaints. If I lose taking Tenn or Pitt, I would second guess myself.
 

GM

PleasureGlutton
Forum Member
Jan 21, 2000
2,962
5
0
122
Toronto, ON, Canada
Blitz said:
One guy in our pool this week got knocked out with only 4 people left cause he picked a team he already used! :eek:

We had a little controversy in our pool. There are 3 of us left now, but it was almost 4. One person re-used TB last week. I saw it written on the sheet ahead of time...said "Tampa Bay" under Week 6, and then "Bucs" under Week 9 (cheater, or innocent mistake??). Anyways, I was going to let it go and then after it won point it out, but decided honesty was the best way to go and pointed it out to the manager. The manager said if he saw the player he would let them know. They found out, and changed the pick to Green Bay just before the game on Monday. However the Tampa Bay game had been played the day before, so in our (the other 3 of us) opinion, this person should have been eliminated.

The bar owner was adamant that this person should be allowed to continue as it was an "honest" mistake. Then we check the board, and guess what....this person had already taken Green Bay too! LOL :lol: :lol:
 

GM

PleasureGlutton
Forum Member
Jan 21, 2000
2,962
5
0
122
Toronto, ON, Canada
Valuist said:
GM-

Good point about New Orleans when they host Cleveland. I won't play Baltimore this week; I think Cincinnati may come back and win outright. I've noticed that when winless or undefeated teams finally go the other way, they often repeat in the next week.

I believe the streak-snap bounceback might be more effective ATS than it is SU. So far this year it seems to be about 50/50 relating to both winning streaks that have ended, and losing streaks that have ended.

=============================================

Teams with 4+ game winning streaks this year, game it ended, and the game after that:

San Diego: 4 wins, lost @ Denver, won (but didn't cover) vs KC
Oakland: 4 wins, lost @ StL, lost vs SD
Tampa Bay: 5 wins, lost @ Phil, won (but didn't cover) @ Car

Pittsburgh: 4 (current)
Atlanta: 4 (current)
Green Bay: 6 (current)

=============================================

Teams with 4+ game losing streaks this year, game it ended, and the game after that:

Minnesota: 4 losses, won vs Det, lost @ NYJ
St Louis: 5 losses, won vs Oak, won vs Sea
Tennessee: 4 losses, won vs Jax, won @ Cinci
Houston: 5 losses, won @ Jax, lost vs Cinci
New England: 4 losses, won @ Buffalo, then ???
Cincinnati: 7 losses, won @ Houston, then ???

Jacksonville: 4 (current)
Oakland: 4 (current)
Carolina: 5 (current)
Chicago: 6 (current)
 
MB NCAAF 728x90 Jpg
Top