Week #10 leans and plays

[kbyoda]

I have made 1 play already....

Miami +1

Reasons being:
1) The 2nd worst rush D against #1 rush offense
2) Cant see Miami loosing 3 in a row- I know it is a warm weather team against going to the cold as Valuist pointed out (only 4-12 ATS after Nov1), but that was BEFORE Ricky Williams and an offense that runs the ball.
3) Big rival game and Dolphins need the W to stay ahead of the pack in the conference standings
4) Alot of people..public... is down on Miami and high on the Jets after beating SD BADLY!! - Jets will stack the line w/ 8 in the box and Ricky will STILL get the yards. Not only that, that gives Lucas 1 on 1 w/ his WR's, and Chambers (who did nothing last night) and Carter will exploit it. No doubt Cris was doing NADA last night..but different story this week. More importantly, it is all about Ricky W. He will be hungry. The WR's will not win the game themselves of course, but will do enough to keep NY D honest
5) No way the Miami D does not show up this week! I see a Jets team that will be hard pressed to find the endzone
6) Jets are coming off big W...let down week
7) Miami is hungry...and getting +1 point is a gift! Line will ABSOLUTELY go against me..so I played it now!
8) Line is NOT a sucker one....people will be on the Jets! Rams Sunday -3 is the same way I see this game......

Other leans but no action yet:

Chiefs +6.5
Giants -1.5
Cards -3.5
Pats -3.5

If the lines were at 3 or 7 I would have played them. Waiting to see if I can get better line movements. GL to all this week!

 

[kbyoda]

Forgot to mention......

Miami will not play like crap in 2 PRIME TIME games on back to back weeks...Don't see it happening!!

 

[bej0101]

until they get fiedler back they might not win/cover a game..lucas is horrible and their defense is a bit overrated

 

[kbyoda]

Bej0101,

I really hope that is what people think. Please take no offense....but that is exactly what I am hoping the public thinks and why the line is where it is!

Miami +1

 

[Senor Capper]

FYI

FYI

Sage Rosenfels - QB, Miami Dolphins Nov. 5, 3:36 p.m.
Attention Iowa State fans: Rosenfels could get his first NFL start in Week 10. With Ray Lucas is listed as questionable with a sore shoulder and Jay Fiedler out with a thumb injury, Rosenfels is the only quarterback left on Miami's roster.

 

[kbyoda]

Thanks for the update El Senior!!!

Only thing I can say is that I like the play more since I think Lucas is nothing but a STIFF! Could Rosey become Bulger II? Kidding, but I like him more than Lucas.....

Obviously this is one of many many games I have played this year and only for my typical 1 un9t wager...nothing more...just wanted to catch the line early..

Agree w/ you Senior w/ Cards and Pats but leaning to Giants...waiting on a further Barber practice update...

Run Forrest...I mean Ricky...Run!!!!!

 

[kbyoda]

Just added....

Pats -3.5 BIG BIG game for them- must W for playoffs- Big game against Oak next week...they need this W and have faced many STRONG opp last few weeks incl Den, Mia & GB! This will NOT be a look ahead game and I think they win by a TD on the road! The W last week gave them the confidence they needed and we will see that this week...

Arizona -3.5 Not loosing 3 games in a row! This team is 4-4 and VERY much alive in the playoff hunt. Have a BIG TIME L next week against Philly and plays each and every week competitively. Think NADA about Seattle a shitty team!! This play is also based on zero trust in SEA abilities- Boston finally recovering w/ have a big day on playaction since Zona or even my grandma can run through that Sea front! Zona averaging a solid 4.3 yds/rush on the ground and over 120 rush yds a game against the worst run D that is on the road!! Only neg is how bad Gramatica is...hopefully he has a good week!

So my plays this week so far are...

Miami +1
Zona -3.5
Pats -3.5

 

[Jedi]

Bet the Miami game early myself. Still can't figure how the Jets did that to San Diego but it isn't going to happen again this week against Miami.

 

[Z-MAN]

good luck buddy! I don't like the Miami pick though. They don't have a qb and I am kinda liking Pennington right now........

 

[motley plays]

be carefull

be carefull

Miami offense is one dimensional!

Jets will stack the line and take out Ricky.and try to let QB Sage beat them. Packers did this on MNF with Lucas.

Jets are geting into rythm right now and would love to lay the wood while Miami is down.

Miami will try to rely on its defense to keep them in the game, but it will tire in the 4th quarter and Jets will win by 10.


I do however like

Pats -3
KC +6.5

and a Monsterous Play I will put out Sunday

 

[kbyoda]

Motley,

Will be looking for that play :weed:
Regards to Miami, GB D is a whole lot different than Jets especially w/ a Monday night performance at lambeau!

Just did something kinda funky. Had Zona -3.5 and played it instead of buying the hook. I just checked and saw -3 (even). Went ahead and placed a bet on Seattle to buy back my -3.5 bet and THAN bet Zona at -3! This way saved me more $$ than buying the hook the first time if I was to do it. I may not be making a whole lot of sense but oh well! My plays are now:

Miami +1- Might take $ line for a small add'l amount later
Zona -3
Pats -3.5
Chiefs +6.5
Giants -1

All plays are equally weighted!! GL to all this week!! Might add something later, but I feel this might be it for week #10

 

[kbyoda]

Scratched Zona.........Boston out kills the play for me. The Under looks great now!!! Backed off the play and bet under 37

Miami +1
Zona Under 37
Pats-3.5
Giants -1
Chiefs +6.5

 

[motley plays]

KYB

Like I said I like your plays on Pats and KC, but Miami is still a question. I wish you luck and hope you nail it.

I just can't see playing a team with an unproven QB.

Remember JETS and Miami is a division games, unlike GB



MOTLEY "THE MONSTER IS COMING"

 

[GM]

Re: Week #10 leans and plays

7) Miami is hungry...and getting +1 point is a gift! Line will ABSOLUTELY go against me..so I played it now!
8) Line is NOT a sucker one....people will be on the Jets!

That doesn't make any sense kyboda. If you thought everyone would be on the Jets (and it appears they are), then why would you think the line would move against you? It's now Jets -3. And I think you'll see -3? by game day when the public REALLY puts down their $$.

The public rarely remembers anything prior to what happened last week. Big Jets win + horrible Fins loss = everyone piling on NYJ.

 

[GM]

Another thing that makes me think Mia may be the right side...

Another thing that makes me think Mia may be the right side...

Olympic has NYJ at -2? -120, while most other places have gone to -3. This tells me Oly does not want you getting a full field goal with the Dolphins, though they are likely taking quite a bit of money on the Jets. A slow move by them like this (refusing to move onto a key #) is usually a sign to me that they feel Miami is the right side.

 

[doveshack]

Flawed Logic

Flawed Logic

Whenever I hear someone say, "I don't see SO & SO losing X games in a row". I think to myself, "Flawed Logic". How many people said, I don't see the Raiders losing 3 in a row. I flipped a penny 10 times and got all heads. I bet the chance of getting a tails next is at least 80%. No even higher, 90%. No, I guarantee it will be a tails, 100%.:nono:

 

[kbyoda]

Motley...thanks for wishing me success. To you as well my friend!!

GM, This is what I am thinking and please take it as just my humble opinion. First and foremost my comment about it NOT being sucker line was just that. As you clearly pointed out and the way I see it, most NFL bettors who are not nearly as informed as you folks on this site do only look back 1 week or so or their home teams to sway their betting. So I was simply not suprised to see the line where it was due to last weeks performances by both teams...which of course made it seem attractive to me when it came out....and 1 of the reasons why I like it/bet it.

My rational behind why the line was ABSOLUTELY going to move against me....Well...again first and foremost....I am of the belief that the "smartest" $ if their is such a thing comes out very early in the week or right before kickoff depending on which side one likes. Well, I "thought" smart $ would play Miami early, and move the line to even or Miami -1. To be honest, I don't know exactly what it opened up at...but I thought it was +1. I than thought the line would stabilize around there until Sunday afternoon before people start "pressing" to get their $$ back that they lost during the course of the day. The line would stay right around there because 1/2 the public will be on the Favorite/Half on the Home team. I believe night games attracts the public to home teams/favorites..and I thought Miami would move to the favorite!

Well, I was DEAD WRONG!! The line went to +3 I scratched my head and could only suggest 2 things:

1) Internet...weaker reason but... The public started unloading on the Jets due to last weeks games since we can all now get online and place our bets in a matter of minutes and tell Vinny down the street w/ his inflated local lines to take a hike!
2) The press releases of Lucas not playing and Sage coming in caused many to fear the Fish..puts their action in and Vegas moves the line.
Pissed I didnt catch it at +3 because I like ANYONE over Lucas (same feeling w/ Carter in Dallas as a Cowboy fan) and in my opinion an over reaction since Lucas is soo bad..thus better value and a HUGE SWING in my favor!!!

The line has now moved to Miami +2.5. I think smart cappers who know Value is jumping on the Fish!

WOW!!! All that for a 1 unit play, but that is one way I saw this game and my GUESS as to why the line has jumped back and forth. ABSOLUTELY was NOT the right word. Side note, Pretty shocking to me that the line moves all the way up to the Key # of 3 and than moved OFF OF IT 1.5 days later. I am willing to guess more action has been placed on this game this week than any other thus far. Anyhow, it is just a 1 unit play for me this week and am more than happy to take my 1 unit W or 1 unit Loss and call it a day.................SHOOT we all know NO MATTER HOW YOU CAP A GAME ZEBRAS & TURNOVERS can spoil the best capped game!! Just happy that many like the Jets because it enforces my belief that this line may have Value not to mention the other factors above.....and is worthy of a wager


Doveshack,
I appreciate your post..but I disagree 100%! Their is absolutely ZERO "emotion factor" in flipping a coin as I like to call it. I handicap games based on many angles but lean HEAVILY to where a teams head is at that week! Look ahead, last week, divisional, particular playoff implications, injuries past ATS, MOSTLY YTD stats etc etc. A coin flip has ZERO of this and I 100% refuse to believe their is any association. They played AT the Rams (Marshall chewed Costas out and the Rams jump started their season), AT SD (Divisonal HARD GAME to win) and AT KC going into a bye! 3 ROAD GAMES!! That aint no cake walk schedule!!! Am I suprised....NO to be 100% honest with you..not at all!! I don't all it flawed logic...just logic itself!! This is why I jumped off Zona! Hate the fact Boston is out!! Way too much "outside" stuff going on in that lockerroom and they just lost their best offensive player! A piece of silver wont tell you that! Don't mean to come off harsh so please dont take it that way..... GL

 

[kbyoda]

Lastly, just quick observations I "just"read that make me like my plays for the week and risked a wager this Sunday:

Giants/Vikings- "Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle Chris Hovan left practice Thursday with back spasms. He has been added to the injury report as questionable for Sunday's game against the Giants. Hovan is the leader and one of the few really good players on the Vikings' defense. The Vikes can ill afford to lose his services for any period of time"

With some help from the local media, wide receiver Amani Toomer guaranteed that the 4-4 Giants would make the playoffs. "I think we're definitely a playoff team," Toomer told the New York Daily News. "Definitely. Definitely. Without question." When prodded further, Toomer replied, "Playoff guarantee? Yeah, why not?" Toomer went on to explain the situation, "I think we have everything we need to make that playoff run. Our schedule is favorable. The only thing we really need to do is get that momentum going....

I like it!!! Toomer at least didnt diss the Vikings so they can hang that up in their lockerroom!!

Giants -1 This kind of talk/injury update makes me like the bet more!!


Bears/Pats
ESPN is reporting that Bears quarterback Jim Miller will be unable to start Sunday's game against the Patriots and may be relegated to backup duty the rest of the season due to the tendonitis in his right elbow. Miller returned to action against the Eagles in week nine, but sat out Wednesday's practice to rest his arm. He tried practicing Thursday, but had to cut it short and afterwards it was decided that Chris Chandler would start this week's game. "The elbow (swelled up) like a grapefruit," a league source told ESPN, "and the pain was pretty bad. Miller is a tough guy, so you know the pain must be unbearable, or he'd be out there." Judging from the way Chandler looked in his previous stint under center for the Bears and the way the Patriots' pass defense has been playing, this game could get ugly in a hurry. Stick a fork in this offense.

Make me like my Pats play more! QB rumblings and question marks onlyenforces my opinions about this game

Pats -3.5

 

[kbyoda]

Doveshack,

Wasnt 3 road games in a row...my bad..it is late
Added Saints -4.5



Sorry for the long posts! Final Plays for the week:

Miami +1
Pats-3.5
Giants -1
Under Zona 37
Chiefs +6.5
New Orleans -4.5

Might bet Oak +4.5 Monday night small

 

[kbyoda]

Just wanted to add for fun some small parlays- All my plays are for 4 units except:

1 unit 4 team parlay:
Colts/Eagles over 42.5
Giants +1
Raiders +5.5-might hedge if other 3 hit
Cards under 37

2 unit 7 team parlay
Rams ML Packers over 41
Eagles ML Packers ML
Steelers ML Miami ML-

4 Units:
Miami +1
Giants -1
Pats -3.5
Chiefs +6.5
Cards under 37
Saints -4.5

GL everyone this week and happy B-Day Fletcher!!