I'm going to start posting my picks this late in the season. I saw a lot of you at the super bowl party, and I have been tailing people for a couple years while doing my own research and recording my own picks to track how well I hit. I seem to be losing substantial value by following others because many cappers post late in the week and particularly when betting on favorites it is important to get an early line.
I play poker for a living, but I see myself shifting more towards investing within the next couple years as my bankroll continues to grow. This is major motivation for me to get better at handicapping. I think the sports market is much more inefficient than the stock market, and I can leverage it much better becuase it only ties up 2% of my bankroll per bet.
I also want to get forum input on my picks. I see a lot of cappers just post their picks with no rationale and I really don't see how that helps the forum. I shove all my notes in with my plays. Please comment on my stuff. The more info I have, the better. A major component of my analysis is the offensive and defensive statistical rankings from the nfl.com team page. it goes points-yds-pass-rush. I look at the lines after I do my analysis to avoid tainting my thinking. I've only capped a few games so far, but I'm just going to post them as I get them done
Here we go:
Vikings 14-14-30-1 offense 10-22-31-2 defense
@ Packers 9-5-2-32 off 7-11-20-8 def
I saw the pack run well vs the bears who have a horrible run defense, but MIN has the #1 run defense. GB will not even attempt to run. farve will air it out the whole time, every qb is throwing for 300yd on MIN. Seeing this, I thought maybe MIN pass defense is statistically worse than it really is because teams are thowing all the time. looking back we see:
harrington went 23/32
mcnabb 23/36
farve 32/45
griese 26/45
romo 31/39
rivers 19/42
kitna 22/32
huard 20/29
so the pass defense is pretty bad.
Peterson rushed for 296yd last week vs SD, the 14th run defense.
good god I can't believe I didn't have them last week. that was pretty obvious at +7
I think this game comes down to farve throwing picks, if he doesn't they win in blowout, if he does, minnesota wins
Minnesota looks good after last week beating san diego, so the line is a little tilted towards them
I'm going to wait and see what the line does on this one. If it drops I'll pick up GB, if it goes up, probably MIN moneyline.
After reading bigfootballfan's excellent writeup, where he shows that Minnesota's running game only works on bad defenses, I think GB should be -10.
Packers -6
Browns 4-4-7-17 offense 30-32-32-27 defense
@Steelers 5-8-19-2 off 1-1-1-4
Pitt is #1 defense now
browns with worst defense
Pitt play real well at home
Last meeting Pitt rush 206 yd, with 42 rush plays
raiders with #4 rush offense went 41-186
pitt only threw the ball 23 times
sacked anderson 6-43 yd
Cleveland defense is allowing a huge number of points, even against poor teams like miami and oakland
cleveland has a huge problem with turnovers
cleveland with 5 turnovers vs pitt
4 turnovers vs pats
some of the stuff the browns offense is doing is pretty good:
anderson threw for 287 yd on NE
Time of posession was 28-33 in the NE game, not bad
since the bye, anderson 3-1 vs rams and sea
PIT will run for 200yd
CLE with throw a lot and have some success with that
because PIT is just going to run, line should be 7.5
I'm looking at the cleveland moneyline, if anderson doesn't throw an interception, they have a shot. I'll wait till game time for this dog.
Rams 32-29-16-29 offense 28-19-13-25
@Saints 12-6-4-24 offense 25-21-27-10 defense
Rams DE Little out for season
Rams 1-7 ATS
Saints have won four straight vs JAX SF ATL SEA
Rams really really bad on the road. they have scored 19 total points on the road
Bulger went 24/36 for 310yd vs CLE who has terrible pass defense and 24/41 for 368yd vs SF who is the 14th pass defense
I looked at the Falcons and 49ers games because those teams have similar defensive stats to Rams
Falcons at 15 pass 23 rush
brees goes 22/34 for 219 yards
22/91 rushing
49ers at 14 pass 24 rush
Brees went 22/43 for 177 yards
21/83 rushing
NO averaged 26.5 points in those two games
NO should be -7 on neutral field but I think home field should boost them by an outrageous 7 points because of how bad the rams are doing on the road, so NO should be -14
and they are -11 -107 so I'm grabbing that
NO -11
Jaguars 19-16-25-5 offense 9-24-26-16 defense
@Titans 16-24-31-3 offense 2-2-12-1 defense
Wow look at this Tennessee defense I had no idea they were that good, allowing only 66 rush yards/game. Looks like the only offense the Jags have is their running game and I can't imagine they will be able to get anything done vs this Titans run defense.
Garrard questionable
In week one:
Titans with 49/282 rush yards WOW!
11/18 for 68 yards pass
Jags 17/75 rush
17/30 197 pass
Rushing offenses Jags have faced:
ATL 20
DEN 13
KC 30
HOU 27
IND 7
TB 16
NO 24
All of these are sucky except for IND, so let's look at IND game
Manning 23/37 for 259
33/141 rush
Jags rush 17/75
Indy dominated the clock though so this is somewhat inflated. Jacksonville run defense is bad though, the #16 rank is not accurate due to their schedule. I expect week one style rushing from Titans.
Think Titans should be -6.5 +3 for home field so -9.5 and look they are only -4 +100 on pinny
Titans -4
Eagles 18-9-11-15 offense 11-12-21-7 defense
@Redskins 21-20-26-9 offense 15-10-18-9
Eagles are WAY better than their 3-5 record. #9 offensive yardage, #12 defense, and look at their schedule: GB WAS DET NYG NYJ CHI MIN DAL. McNabb is hitting 60% and is 9-4. what the heck is this talk about a qb change are you joking? So what happened back in week 2 when the skins beat them 20-12?
Campbell goes 16/29/209
rush 33/130
McNabb 28/46/226
rush 20/114
that looks pretty even to me. Eagles apparently lost because of the 0-4 red zone efficiency. I cannot seem to find team rankings by red zone efficiency, so I'm not sure if this is a huge problem for them or what, but they are putting fewer points on the board then their offensive stats would indicate.
McNabb went 21/34/226 vs the bears #22 pass defense
Both these teams play the Giants. Giants are very close to skins in rankings all around and defensively close to eagles
Giants sacked McNabb 12 times. what is up with this
Manning 14/26/129, rush 27/83
McNabb 15/31/76, rush 23/114
Looks like the Eagles only scored 3 points because they accumulated 15 penalties for 132 yards and the 12 sacks
Campbell 16/34/190, rush 27/82
Manning 21/36/219, rush 30/96
i'm sick of looking at this game now, looks like a coin flip with slight edge to skins, maybe 1 point, so line should be WAS -4
and I see WAS -3 +109, so whatever, i'm over it. This line doesn't look right to me, I would have though WAS favored by more, since they are 5-3 and philly 3-5. i'll look at the line sunday morning. also looking at philly revenge factor, as this trend works for them.
Falcons 30-27-20-20 offense 18-18-15-23 defense
@Panthers 25-25-27-11 offense 16-14-16-20
I agree with Mully when he says Panthers have always had QB problems and this is not a reason to think they are worse than previous years. Panthers schedule looks weak to me.
These teams played week 3:
Harrington 31/44/351
19/91 rush
Delhomme 13/22/138
36/175 rush
ATL goes 1/4 red zone, 10/135 penalties despite getting 130 more yards than CAR
Carolina got 5 yards/rush with the longest rush being 13. there was no 50+ yard rush to make the stat look big
Harrington went 23/29/223 vs HOU, 14/25/138 vs SF
This game looks kind of coin flippy to me, i'll give carolina two points and three for home field for -5
i'm seeing -4 so no edge
Bills 27-31-29-18 off 12-29-29-19 def
@ Dolphins 15-18-18-12 off 31-23-6-31 def
bills stats are really bad but their defense has allowed few points and their schedule was real tough, losman starting
miami weaker schedule, and they're just blowing
line should be miami +1 and it's like 2.5 so i pass
Broncos 16-12-13 offense 29-8-32 defense
@ Chiefs 29-17-30 offense 8-19-14 def
if cutler plays line should be KC -3
KC rb out, so KC -2
I see KC -3, no play
Bengals 8-7-5-28 offense 32-31-28-28 defense
@Ravens 26-23-24-19 and 13-3-10-3
Not sure what has happened to ravens this year, they were division champs last year. let's see if I can figure this out.
Last year:
#1 defense
#23 offense
This year:
#3 defense
#17 offense
what is going on. their offense looks BETTER this year
this year 16.4 ppg (26th)
last year 22.1 ppg (16th)
ok that explains a little. they went 13-3 last year, I don't get it still. last year they won won two games by 1 point on the road. they lost Adalius Thomas. gave up 3 draft picks for Mcgahee. harder schedule this year. They should still have won more than 4 games. Baltimore line will probably be jacked because they looked like a high school team last monday. I'm looking for value on Baltimore.
Now how about Bengals. they are 2-6. Their defense is horrible and they only have a passing game. they were 8-8 last year. they have WR Henry back as of week 8, has anyone noticed him improving the passing game? they obviously can score a lot against a poor defense like the Jets, but they also got 4.1 yards per rush vs the steelers and 3.8 vs NE. both of those games were at home.
Last year I had Baltimore in both of these division games and went 1-1. This game is a spot where cappers like Gibber say to take the better defense every time, and I like it. I'll put Ravens at -6 and home field for -9. they are -4 -105
Ravens -4
and I just now saw that McGahee is questionable, I still like it
Colts 3-3-8-7 offense 3-5-3-15 defense
@Chargers 10-21-22-14....17-25-24-22
I like gjn23's analysis back in september here http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=298631&highlight=diego+merriman+rivers where he showed San Diego is a fraud and doesn't have as much talent as people think. Now look at this terrible rankings they have, LT is the only bright spot on this team. They remind me of when I lived in SD a few years back when they started 0-5.
I think the colts are almost as good as the patriots. obviously they had 2 bs pass interference calls to help them out, but they went 1/3 in the red zone and missed a field goal. I think they win last weeks game 40% of the time.
I want to look at how Colts do against a poor defense and how the chargers do against a stellar pass defense and a middle of the road run defense.
So I'm searching for a team the Colts have played that has something like #24 pass #22 run and I can't find one. No one they've played is that bad. The Saints have a bad pass D and Manning threw 18/30/288 and racked up 41 points. Panthers have bad run D and the Colts ran 32/131. well thats not as high as I thought it would be. that's 4.1 yards/rush. hmm. Texans also have bad run defense and Colts went 29/92 for 3.2 yards/carry. What is going on? I was all set to say something like "colts racked up 200 rush yards on this poor run defense." This doesn't make sense to me that it I can't say this. It's fawking up my theory. Colts are #7 rushing offense, who are they getting the yardage on, good defenses? they are getting 4.4 yards per attempt average, but against the two bad run D's they get less than average? Someone explain this to me. Size of defensive linemen, defensive scheme, injuries maybe, I'll look into this some other day. HOU and CAR were playing at home, maybe they were just fired up. If someone watched these games, please comment.
In the meantime, since San Diego has both bad run and pass defense, and their offense sucks, I like Colts win in blowout -17, +3 for home field -14
So I just looked at the line, and I don't think I've ever pegged a line that far from the actual one. That is really far out there. once someone comments on my stuff I will load up. the power rating on scores and odds.com has them -6. maybe a pleaser in this spot. I'm really suprised at this line after Chargers disgrace last week.
Colts -3.5 +105
This is really bothering me that I'm only seeing favorites this week, as I'm mostly a dog bettor like a lot of guys around here, but whatever.
Cowboys 2-2-3-10 offense 20-8-17-5
@Giants 7-15-21-6 offense 14-7-9-11 defense
I don't think the Giants are that much better than the Skins and the Eagles. They have jacked up 30+ on a lot of weak teams. They played the boys already so I'll have a look at that game. I would tend to agree with kneifl that boys represent the NFC in the super bowl. Last game:
Manning 28/41/312 and 4/1 td/int
T Romo 15/24/345 and 4/1
Rushing:
Giants 22/124/5.6
Dallas 30/142/4.7
Dallas was sacked 3 times
Dallas with big edge in passing game, but kind of weak pass defense. I say Cowboys should be -4 but they are playing @ giants, so Cowboys -2. Looks like I pegged it exactly, no play
Ok Scott and FirstnGoal have given me enough to shift my line and make this a play. To sum up:
Last 5 giants have played have a combined record of 8-33
Farve showed a good pass game trashes them
Giants suck off a bye
Dallas is really good and should be -6 so i'm hitting
Cowboys -2 -110
Lions 6-12-9-21 offense 23-28-30-12 defense
@Cardinals 17-19-13-25, 19-9-7-18
The lions are doing really well. They haven't won four straight in 7 years, but maybe they can get it done sunday. The Lions won three total games away from home the last two seasons. Lions lost 17-10 in Arizona last year. Before that, Lions were 3-0 against them. Zona has lost 3 straight, having a massive skid after starting well with leinart out.
I can't find a team like ARI with good pass D and middle of the road rush D that Lions have played this year. denver is ok at both and look what happened last week. that doesn't really seem representative though. TB has #2 pass D and the #17 rush D so I'm looking at that game.
Kitna 16/20/147 wow he went 80% against the #2 pass defense
24/147/6.1 rushing - pretty good
TB outgained them 422 to 278. looks like TB really should have won that game, just had some bad stuff happen
I expect Warner to make up for his retarded 10-30 performance last week, and he'll have an easy time doing it against this Lions defense. James might get it together this week. I put Lions at -3 but home field for Zona is worth 4 in this spot, so ARI -1.
DANG IT I really wanted to bet on zona here for some reason, but I have no edge. Hopefully someone will post some stuff that will let me shift this a couple points so I can bet.
Bears 23-26-14-31 offense 22-27-22-26 defense
Raiders 20-22-28-4 offense 21-16-4-30 defense
Raiders have kind of unusual combo of bad/good offense and defense. They have blown a lot of close games this year, and every year in fact. They always find ways to screw the spread at the last second, so I don't want to bet them anymore, but I probably will anyway. Raiders are 5-15ats in home games and 0-4ats at home this year.
But look at this bears team is HORRIBLE. I know they lost about 5 or 6 defensive starters but they must have some other problems too, cause they are way worse than last year. They are 3-5 but I saw that Green Bay game and there was no reason for GB to not beat them by 20. KC also outgained them even though KC lost. Philly gave away their win too. Bears could be 0-8 easily. Peterson rushed for 224 yards on them. Now that is key because the Raiders are good at running the ball. Line should be raiders -8. and they are getting 3.5 so I have to bet on them. power rating says raiders pk. The line is moving higher so I'll wait to get the
Raiders
I noticed in the past 3 seasons oakland has only been a home dog of 3.5-7 points 1 time. this does not seem right to me. Haven't they been a home dog every other week the last 3 seasons? maybe they were always 14 point dogs. anyway, you know your week is going to be bad when the only dog you have is the raiders
I play poker for a living, but I see myself shifting more towards investing within the next couple years as my bankroll continues to grow. This is major motivation for me to get better at handicapping. I think the sports market is much more inefficient than the stock market, and I can leverage it much better becuase it only ties up 2% of my bankroll per bet.
I also want to get forum input on my picks. I see a lot of cappers just post their picks with no rationale and I really don't see how that helps the forum. I shove all my notes in with my plays. Please comment on my stuff. The more info I have, the better. A major component of my analysis is the offensive and defensive statistical rankings from the nfl.com team page. it goes points-yds-pass-rush. I look at the lines after I do my analysis to avoid tainting my thinking. I've only capped a few games so far, but I'm just going to post them as I get them done
Here we go:
Vikings 14-14-30-1 offense 10-22-31-2 defense
@ Packers 9-5-2-32 off 7-11-20-8 def
I saw the pack run well vs the bears who have a horrible run defense, but MIN has the #1 run defense. GB will not even attempt to run. farve will air it out the whole time, every qb is throwing for 300yd on MIN. Seeing this, I thought maybe MIN pass defense is statistically worse than it really is because teams are thowing all the time. looking back we see:
harrington went 23/32
mcnabb 23/36
farve 32/45
griese 26/45
romo 31/39
rivers 19/42
kitna 22/32
huard 20/29
so the pass defense is pretty bad.
Peterson rushed for 296yd last week vs SD, the 14th run defense.
good god I can't believe I didn't have them last week. that was pretty obvious at +7
I think this game comes down to farve throwing picks, if he doesn't they win in blowout, if he does, minnesota wins
Minnesota looks good after last week beating san diego, so the line is a little tilted towards them
I'm going to wait and see what the line does on this one. If it drops I'll pick up GB, if it goes up, probably MIN moneyline.
After reading bigfootballfan's excellent writeup, where he shows that Minnesota's running game only works on bad defenses, I think GB should be -10.
Packers -6
Browns 4-4-7-17 offense 30-32-32-27 defense
@Steelers 5-8-19-2 off 1-1-1-4
Pitt is #1 defense now
browns with worst defense
Pitt play real well at home
Last meeting Pitt rush 206 yd, with 42 rush plays
raiders with #4 rush offense went 41-186
pitt only threw the ball 23 times
sacked anderson 6-43 yd
Cleveland defense is allowing a huge number of points, even against poor teams like miami and oakland
cleveland has a huge problem with turnovers
cleveland with 5 turnovers vs pitt
4 turnovers vs pats
some of the stuff the browns offense is doing is pretty good:
anderson threw for 287 yd on NE
Time of posession was 28-33 in the NE game, not bad
since the bye, anderson 3-1 vs rams and sea
PIT will run for 200yd
CLE with throw a lot and have some success with that
because PIT is just going to run, line should be 7.5
I'm looking at the cleveland moneyline, if anderson doesn't throw an interception, they have a shot. I'll wait till game time for this dog.
Rams 32-29-16-29 offense 28-19-13-25
@Saints 12-6-4-24 offense 25-21-27-10 defense
Rams DE Little out for season
Rams 1-7 ATS
Saints have won four straight vs JAX SF ATL SEA
Rams really really bad on the road. they have scored 19 total points on the road
Bulger went 24/36 for 310yd vs CLE who has terrible pass defense and 24/41 for 368yd vs SF who is the 14th pass defense
I looked at the Falcons and 49ers games because those teams have similar defensive stats to Rams
Falcons at 15 pass 23 rush
brees goes 22/34 for 219 yards
22/91 rushing
49ers at 14 pass 24 rush
Brees went 22/43 for 177 yards
21/83 rushing
NO averaged 26.5 points in those two games
NO should be -7 on neutral field but I think home field should boost them by an outrageous 7 points because of how bad the rams are doing on the road, so NO should be -14
and they are -11 -107 so I'm grabbing that
NO -11
Jaguars 19-16-25-5 offense 9-24-26-16 defense
@Titans 16-24-31-3 offense 2-2-12-1 defense
Wow look at this Tennessee defense I had no idea they were that good, allowing only 66 rush yards/game. Looks like the only offense the Jags have is their running game and I can't imagine they will be able to get anything done vs this Titans run defense.
Garrard questionable
In week one:
Titans with 49/282 rush yards WOW!
11/18 for 68 yards pass
Jags 17/75 rush
17/30 197 pass
Rushing offenses Jags have faced:
ATL 20
DEN 13
KC 30
HOU 27
IND 7
TB 16
NO 24
All of these are sucky except for IND, so let's look at IND game
Manning 23/37 for 259
33/141 rush
Jags rush 17/75
Indy dominated the clock though so this is somewhat inflated. Jacksonville run defense is bad though, the #16 rank is not accurate due to their schedule. I expect week one style rushing from Titans.
Think Titans should be -6.5 +3 for home field so -9.5 and look they are only -4 +100 on pinny
Titans -4
Eagles 18-9-11-15 offense 11-12-21-7 defense
@Redskins 21-20-26-9 offense 15-10-18-9
Eagles are WAY better than their 3-5 record. #9 offensive yardage, #12 defense, and look at their schedule: GB WAS DET NYG NYJ CHI MIN DAL. McNabb is hitting 60% and is 9-4. what the heck is this talk about a qb change are you joking? So what happened back in week 2 when the skins beat them 20-12?
Campbell goes 16/29/209
rush 33/130
McNabb 28/46/226
rush 20/114
that looks pretty even to me. Eagles apparently lost because of the 0-4 red zone efficiency. I cannot seem to find team rankings by red zone efficiency, so I'm not sure if this is a huge problem for them or what, but they are putting fewer points on the board then their offensive stats would indicate.
McNabb went 21/34/226 vs the bears #22 pass defense
Both these teams play the Giants. Giants are very close to skins in rankings all around and defensively close to eagles
Giants sacked McNabb 12 times. what is up with this
Manning 14/26/129, rush 27/83
McNabb 15/31/76, rush 23/114
Looks like the Eagles only scored 3 points because they accumulated 15 penalties for 132 yards and the 12 sacks
Campbell 16/34/190, rush 27/82
Manning 21/36/219, rush 30/96
i'm sick of looking at this game now, looks like a coin flip with slight edge to skins, maybe 1 point, so line should be WAS -4
and I see WAS -3 +109, so whatever, i'm over it. This line doesn't look right to me, I would have though WAS favored by more, since they are 5-3 and philly 3-5. i'll look at the line sunday morning. also looking at philly revenge factor, as this trend works for them.
Falcons 30-27-20-20 offense 18-18-15-23 defense
@Panthers 25-25-27-11 offense 16-14-16-20
I agree with Mully when he says Panthers have always had QB problems and this is not a reason to think they are worse than previous years. Panthers schedule looks weak to me.
These teams played week 3:
Harrington 31/44/351
19/91 rush
Delhomme 13/22/138
36/175 rush
ATL goes 1/4 red zone, 10/135 penalties despite getting 130 more yards than CAR
Carolina got 5 yards/rush with the longest rush being 13. there was no 50+ yard rush to make the stat look big
Harrington went 23/29/223 vs HOU, 14/25/138 vs SF
This game looks kind of coin flippy to me, i'll give carolina two points and three for home field for -5
i'm seeing -4 so no edge
Bills 27-31-29-18 off 12-29-29-19 def
@ Dolphins 15-18-18-12 off 31-23-6-31 def
bills stats are really bad but their defense has allowed few points and their schedule was real tough, losman starting
miami weaker schedule, and they're just blowing
line should be miami +1 and it's like 2.5 so i pass
Broncos 16-12-13 offense 29-8-32 defense
@ Chiefs 29-17-30 offense 8-19-14 def
if cutler plays line should be KC -3
KC rb out, so KC -2
I see KC -3, no play
Bengals 8-7-5-28 offense 32-31-28-28 defense
@Ravens 26-23-24-19 and 13-3-10-3
Not sure what has happened to ravens this year, they were division champs last year. let's see if I can figure this out.
Last year:
#1 defense
#23 offense
This year:
#3 defense
#17 offense
what is going on. their offense looks BETTER this year
this year 16.4 ppg (26th)
last year 22.1 ppg (16th)
ok that explains a little. they went 13-3 last year, I don't get it still. last year they won won two games by 1 point on the road. they lost Adalius Thomas. gave up 3 draft picks for Mcgahee. harder schedule this year. They should still have won more than 4 games. Baltimore line will probably be jacked because they looked like a high school team last monday. I'm looking for value on Baltimore.
Now how about Bengals. they are 2-6. Their defense is horrible and they only have a passing game. they were 8-8 last year. they have WR Henry back as of week 8, has anyone noticed him improving the passing game? they obviously can score a lot against a poor defense like the Jets, but they also got 4.1 yards per rush vs the steelers and 3.8 vs NE. both of those games were at home.
Last year I had Baltimore in both of these division games and went 1-1. This game is a spot where cappers like Gibber say to take the better defense every time, and I like it. I'll put Ravens at -6 and home field for -9. they are -4 -105
Ravens -4
and I just now saw that McGahee is questionable, I still like it
Colts 3-3-8-7 offense 3-5-3-15 defense
@Chargers 10-21-22-14....17-25-24-22
I like gjn23's analysis back in september here http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=298631&highlight=diego+merriman+rivers where he showed San Diego is a fraud and doesn't have as much talent as people think. Now look at this terrible rankings they have, LT is the only bright spot on this team. They remind me of when I lived in SD a few years back when they started 0-5.
I think the colts are almost as good as the patriots. obviously they had 2 bs pass interference calls to help them out, but they went 1/3 in the red zone and missed a field goal. I think they win last weeks game 40% of the time.
I want to look at how Colts do against a poor defense and how the chargers do against a stellar pass defense and a middle of the road run defense.
So I'm searching for a team the Colts have played that has something like #24 pass #22 run and I can't find one. No one they've played is that bad. The Saints have a bad pass D and Manning threw 18/30/288 and racked up 41 points. Panthers have bad run D and the Colts ran 32/131. well thats not as high as I thought it would be. that's 4.1 yards/rush. hmm. Texans also have bad run defense and Colts went 29/92 for 3.2 yards/carry. What is going on? I was all set to say something like "colts racked up 200 rush yards on this poor run defense." This doesn't make sense to me that it I can't say this. It's fawking up my theory. Colts are #7 rushing offense, who are they getting the yardage on, good defenses? they are getting 4.4 yards per attempt average, but against the two bad run D's they get less than average? Someone explain this to me. Size of defensive linemen, defensive scheme, injuries maybe, I'll look into this some other day. HOU and CAR were playing at home, maybe they were just fired up. If someone watched these games, please comment.
In the meantime, since San Diego has both bad run and pass defense, and their offense sucks, I like Colts win in blowout -17, +3 for home field -14
So I just looked at the line, and I don't think I've ever pegged a line that far from the actual one. That is really far out there. once someone comments on my stuff I will load up. the power rating on scores and odds.com has them -6. maybe a pleaser in this spot. I'm really suprised at this line after Chargers disgrace last week.
Colts -3.5 +105
This is really bothering me that I'm only seeing favorites this week, as I'm mostly a dog bettor like a lot of guys around here, but whatever.
Cowboys 2-2-3-10 offense 20-8-17-5
@Giants 7-15-21-6 offense 14-7-9-11 defense
I don't think the Giants are that much better than the Skins and the Eagles. They have jacked up 30+ on a lot of weak teams. They played the boys already so I'll have a look at that game. I would tend to agree with kneifl that boys represent the NFC in the super bowl. Last game:
Manning 28/41/312 and 4/1 td/int
T Romo 15/24/345 and 4/1
Rushing:
Giants 22/124/5.6
Dallas 30/142/4.7
Dallas was sacked 3 times
Dallas with big edge in passing game, but kind of weak pass defense. I say Cowboys should be -4 but they are playing @ giants, so Cowboys -2. Looks like I pegged it exactly, no play
Ok Scott and FirstnGoal have given me enough to shift my line and make this a play. To sum up:
Last 5 giants have played have a combined record of 8-33
Farve showed a good pass game trashes them
Giants suck off a bye
Dallas is really good and should be -6 so i'm hitting
Cowboys -2 -110
Lions 6-12-9-21 offense 23-28-30-12 defense
@Cardinals 17-19-13-25, 19-9-7-18
The lions are doing really well. They haven't won four straight in 7 years, but maybe they can get it done sunday. The Lions won three total games away from home the last two seasons. Lions lost 17-10 in Arizona last year. Before that, Lions were 3-0 against them. Zona has lost 3 straight, having a massive skid after starting well with leinart out.
I can't find a team like ARI with good pass D and middle of the road rush D that Lions have played this year. denver is ok at both and look what happened last week. that doesn't really seem representative though. TB has #2 pass D and the #17 rush D so I'm looking at that game.
Kitna 16/20/147 wow he went 80% against the #2 pass defense
24/147/6.1 rushing - pretty good
TB outgained them 422 to 278. looks like TB really should have won that game, just had some bad stuff happen
I expect Warner to make up for his retarded 10-30 performance last week, and he'll have an easy time doing it against this Lions defense. James might get it together this week. I put Lions at -3 but home field for Zona is worth 4 in this spot, so ARI -1.
DANG IT I really wanted to bet on zona here for some reason, but I have no edge. Hopefully someone will post some stuff that will let me shift this a couple points so I can bet.
Bears 23-26-14-31 offense 22-27-22-26 defense
Raiders 20-22-28-4 offense 21-16-4-30 defense
Raiders have kind of unusual combo of bad/good offense and defense. They have blown a lot of close games this year, and every year in fact. They always find ways to screw the spread at the last second, so I don't want to bet them anymore, but I probably will anyway. Raiders are 5-15ats in home games and 0-4ats at home this year.
But look at this bears team is HORRIBLE. I know they lost about 5 or 6 defensive starters but they must have some other problems too, cause they are way worse than last year. They are 3-5 but I saw that Green Bay game and there was no reason for GB to not beat them by 20. KC also outgained them even though KC lost. Philly gave away their win too. Bears could be 0-8 easily. Peterson rushed for 224 yards on them. Now that is key because the Raiders are good at running the ball. Line should be raiders -8. and they are getting 3.5 so I have to bet on them. power rating says raiders pk. The line is moving higher so I'll wait to get the
Raiders
I noticed in the past 3 seasons oakland has only been a home dog of 3.5-7 points 1 time. this does not seem right to me. Haven't they been a home dog every other week the last 3 seasons? maybe they were always 14 point dogs. anyway, you know your week is going to be bad when the only dog you have is the raiders
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