YTD: 60-51-4
Got a nice win with the Hokies on Thursday night for a nice start to the week.......
......also a huge thanks to the posters out there who guided me to Nevada last night. That was fun. You know who you are and I owe you all a drink! :toast:
Anyway, onto to today. Lots of investment opportunities, so lets hit them!
Georgia Tech +4.5 over UNC........man, the ACC has been the place for me all season long and its been done mainly on the back of these two up and coming programs. How about 9-3 in posted plays in games involving these teams. Most of the time, I have been betting on the Heels and Jackets. I feel compelled to make a call in this game and I am taking the points. Its the ACC. Its going to be close. Its going to look like a first-grade art project at times out on the field. Its going to be decided in the final minutes. Here's where the rubber meets the road for me in this one: Coach Paul Johnson. He has been my favorite 'bet on' coach for years now, especially when he's on the road and catching points. Its his role. After going 14-4 ATS as a road dog at Navy, he's 2-0 this year at Tech. Johnson is 21-8 ATS on the road overall as a head coach at the FBS level. Tech, of course, has it own solid history as a road dog, going 16-9-1 ATS this decade. Meanwhile, the Heels are only 8-19 ATS as a home favorite over the last 10 years. Both teams have good defenses, but it seems that every week, when the chips are down, Johnson has been able to dial up big plays out of the running game from Nesbit and especially Dwyer. I like their overall experience in this game as well. This game will come down to a FG, so four points looks like a lot.
Louisville +6.5 over Pittsburgh. Does anyone really expect Wanny to put together consecutive awesome weeks of coaching. This has let down written all over it. I think Lousville runs the football pretty well and on defense are among the best in the country at getting off the field on third downs. I love teams that are skillful in those departments when they're catching points. Besides, the Cardinals lost outright last week to Syracuse as a double digit favorite. I also love teams in that role as underdogs--especially on the road--as those teams historically cover two out of every three times. Of course, with every system, there are off shot angles that come in and make the play stronger. I am going to blantantly steel this number from AR's thread, but it is worth repeating: Teams off a DD favorite upset loss that are road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 40-11-1 ATS. I think an extra focused Cards team will give a Pitt team that might not be as focused in the wake of last week's dramatic win in South Bend all the fits in the world. Lousiville is improved a lot over last year and they will remind us of that today. They have a good shot of winning outright.
Arkansas +13 over South Carolina
UK + 13.5 over Georgia.
Well, those two plays represent something a few of us have doing all season long: Playing on double digit SEC underdogs. Those on paper mismatches are 9-3 ATS this season. Over the last decade, those dogs have cashed in at 56%, but have been an amazing 41-12-1 ATS since the start of the 2006. Yeah, I'll be staying on the bandwagon. In the games above, we have Arky and UK, who have been responsible for all the losses. Both have been blitzed by the Gators, though, and the Hogs have played better for the last month. Kentucky plays eveyone, including Alabama, down to the wire it seems. Under Rick Brooks, UK is 13-8 ATS as an SEC DD dog.
Big 10 Games......since league started on 9/27, I have been making picks on all the Big 10 games for one of the many Michigan blogs out on the Internet. I'm 20-16-1 in those picks, most of which I have also posted here. The ones I have not posted here are probably .500, just like the overall record there, so you're not missing much. I've been putting money on all the picks, but admittedly some have been smaller plays than usual with only an occassional bigger play than usual. Anyway, here are those picks for the games coming up at noon:
WMU +7.5 over Illinois
Over 61. Both teams will be in the 30s. Hiller and Juice will have a big days. Huge trap for the Illini. Consider WMU will look at this game as a chance to make a name for itself and treat it like a major bowl game. Illinois, meanwhile, has Ohio State next week and looks to be the classic disinterested favorite.
MSU -9 over Purdue........Purdue is 4-23 SU, 9-18ATS against teams that eventually go to a Bowl Game. Meanwhile, Michigan State is 18-3 ATS in their home final. Ringer will have a huge day in his final appearance at Spartan Stadium and their physical, big play secondary will thrwart Purdue the way Michigan could not last week. Purdue has played three road games this season and lost by 17, 13 and 22 points to Notre Dame, Ohios State and Northwestern. Considering MSU is 2-1 SUATS vs those foes, there is no reason to expect a better fate for Purdue today. MSU wins by three touchdowns.
OSU -10.5 over Northwestern. I cant see how Northwestern scores in this game. Maybe a couple of field goals, but they're too banged up for this rested and angry OSU team. Here are some trends I dug up: OSU is 11-1 ATS on the road off a loss, 11-1 on the road vs .667 or better teams and 14-6 in their last 20 road games, including 13-4 in that role as a favorite.
IU/Wisco Over 51......IU averages 27.7 ppg at home this year and for years, despite their constant cellar dweller status, has always been able to put up points at home. This year, the winner of IU's games have average 37.4 ppg, exceeding 40 points five times. I dont trust either team to do anything but score a lot today.
UM +8.5 over Minny. Over 47
Michigan games have been crushing the Over this year, going 7-2, with the two Unders being their mediocre tug of wars against the two MAC teams on their slate. Five Overs in Big 10 plays in five games with an average of 62 points scored in those contests and the winner averaging more than 40 points. Michigan sucks this year, but they're 13-4 as dogs catching more than 4 points. I think they'll be in this game today, and somehow, someway a lot of points will be scored. This will be a 28-24, 28-21, even 34-28 type of game.
Wow. Thats a lot of plays. Strangely all season long, I have been playing 10 or so games at noon. And doing ok....its the night games that have been killing me.
Needless to say, I will be, uh, glued to my my TVs for the next several hours. We really should be able to take bets on the numbers of drinks (or smokes :SIB ) i take between now and nightfall. :mj07:
Good Luck to Everyone Today! :toast:
Got a nice win with the Hokies on Thursday night for a nice start to the week.......
......also a huge thanks to the posters out there who guided me to Nevada last night. That was fun. You know who you are and I owe you all a drink! :toast:
Anyway, onto to today. Lots of investment opportunities, so lets hit them!
Georgia Tech +4.5 over UNC........man, the ACC has been the place for me all season long and its been done mainly on the back of these two up and coming programs. How about 9-3 in posted plays in games involving these teams. Most of the time, I have been betting on the Heels and Jackets. I feel compelled to make a call in this game and I am taking the points. Its the ACC. Its going to be close. Its going to look like a first-grade art project at times out on the field. Its going to be decided in the final minutes. Here's where the rubber meets the road for me in this one: Coach Paul Johnson. He has been my favorite 'bet on' coach for years now, especially when he's on the road and catching points. Its his role. After going 14-4 ATS as a road dog at Navy, he's 2-0 this year at Tech. Johnson is 21-8 ATS on the road overall as a head coach at the FBS level. Tech, of course, has it own solid history as a road dog, going 16-9-1 ATS this decade. Meanwhile, the Heels are only 8-19 ATS as a home favorite over the last 10 years. Both teams have good defenses, but it seems that every week, when the chips are down, Johnson has been able to dial up big plays out of the running game from Nesbit and especially Dwyer. I like their overall experience in this game as well. This game will come down to a FG, so four points looks like a lot.
Louisville +6.5 over Pittsburgh. Does anyone really expect Wanny to put together consecutive awesome weeks of coaching. This has let down written all over it. I think Lousville runs the football pretty well and on defense are among the best in the country at getting off the field on third downs. I love teams that are skillful in those departments when they're catching points. Besides, the Cardinals lost outright last week to Syracuse as a double digit favorite. I also love teams in that role as underdogs--especially on the road--as those teams historically cover two out of every three times. Of course, with every system, there are off shot angles that come in and make the play stronger. I am going to blantantly steel this number from AR's thread, but it is worth repeating: Teams off a DD favorite upset loss that are road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 40-11-1 ATS. I think an extra focused Cards team will give a Pitt team that might not be as focused in the wake of last week's dramatic win in South Bend all the fits in the world. Lousiville is improved a lot over last year and they will remind us of that today. They have a good shot of winning outright.
Arkansas +13 over South Carolina
UK + 13.5 over Georgia.
Well, those two plays represent something a few of us have doing all season long: Playing on double digit SEC underdogs. Those on paper mismatches are 9-3 ATS this season. Over the last decade, those dogs have cashed in at 56%, but have been an amazing 41-12-1 ATS since the start of the 2006. Yeah, I'll be staying on the bandwagon. In the games above, we have Arky and UK, who have been responsible for all the losses. Both have been blitzed by the Gators, though, and the Hogs have played better for the last month. Kentucky plays eveyone, including Alabama, down to the wire it seems. Under Rick Brooks, UK is 13-8 ATS as an SEC DD dog.
Big 10 Games......since league started on 9/27, I have been making picks on all the Big 10 games for one of the many Michigan blogs out on the Internet. I'm 20-16-1 in those picks, most of which I have also posted here. The ones I have not posted here are probably .500, just like the overall record there, so you're not missing much. I've been putting money on all the picks, but admittedly some have been smaller plays than usual with only an occassional bigger play than usual. Anyway, here are those picks for the games coming up at noon:
WMU +7.5 over Illinois
Over 61. Both teams will be in the 30s. Hiller and Juice will have a big days. Huge trap for the Illini. Consider WMU will look at this game as a chance to make a name for itself and treat it like a major bowl game. Illinois, meanwhile, has Ohio State next week and looks to be the classic disinterested favorite.
MSU -9 over Purdue........Purdue is 4-23 SU, 9-18ATS against teams that eventually go to a Bowl Game. Meanwhile, Michigan State is 18-3 ATS in their home final. Ringer will have a huge day in his final appearance at Spartan Stadium and their physical, big play secondary will thrwart Purdue the way Michigan could not last week. Purdue has played three road games this season and lost by 17, 13 and 22 points to Notre Dame, Ohios State and Northwestern. Considering MSU is 2-1 SUATS vs those foes, there is no reason to expect a better fate for Purdue today. MSU wins by three touchdowns.
OSU -10.5 over Northwestern. I cant see how Northwestern scores in this game. Maybe a couple of field goals, but they're too banged up for this rested and angry OSU team. Here are some trends I dug up: OSU is 11-1 ATS on the road off a loss, 11-1 on the road vs .667 or better teams and 14-6 in their last 20 road games, including 13-4 in that role as a favorite.
IU/Wisco Over 51......IU averages 27.7 ppg at home this year and for years, despite their constant cellar dweller status, has always been able to put up points at home. This year, the winner of IU's games have average 37.4 ppg, exceeding 40 points five times. I dont trust either team to do anything but score a lot today.
UM +8.5 over Minny. Over 47
Michigan games have been crushing the Over this year, going 7-2, with the two Unders being their mediocre tug of wars against the two MAC teams on their slate. Five Overs in Big 10 plays in five games with an average of 62 points scored in those contests and the winner averaging more than 40 points. Michigan sucks this year, but they're 13-4 as dogs catching more than 4 points. I think they'll be in this game today, and somehow, someway a lot of points will be scored. This will be a 28-24, 28-21, even 34-28 type of game.
Wow. Thats a lot of plays. Strangely all season long, I have been playing 10 or so games at noon. And doing ok....its the night games that have been killing me.
Needless to say, I will be, uh, glued to my my TVs for the next several hours. We really should be able to take bets on the numbers of drinks (or smokes :SIB ) i take between now and nightfall. :mj07:
Good Luck to Everyone Today! :toast:
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