YTD: 74-58-5
I've been on a nice run the last several weeks, so lets keep the November good times rolling:
Notre Dame -3 over Navy.......a new streak starts. All this talk about ND this week hides the fact the Navy has regressed a bit in Year 1 post Paul Johnson. In watching them, they dont have the same flair for the play call, and on D they're basically a wreck, whereas Johnson always cobbled together a nice D, despite the limitations there. Claussen will have good protection all day and Navy will have no answers for the emering WR combo of Tate and Floyd. ND bombs away on the Naval Academy.
Illinois +9.5 over OSU.......i still think OSU is vulnerabe to the type of offense Illinois will showcase today. The Illini aren't as good as last year, at least record wise, but I think Juice and Company can do a lot of damage today at home. They have been one of the few teams to find consistent offensive success against Iowa, so that gives me confidence they can have similar success today against an OSU D rounding into form. No Big 10 team has played OSU better in the last two seasons than Illinois and Juice is 9-5 ATS as a dog as a starting QB. Also, OSU is 3-9 ATS the week before the Michigan game, 0-6 hen that foe is named Illinois. Interesting.
IU +36.5 over PSU. Over 57.....taking the dog and the Over here. I know the results on the scoreboard suck for IU lately, but the last three games or so, they've found a bit of offensive stride and have excellent at not giving the ball away. I think they can nab more than a couple scores today and get into the 20s. After last week's huge heartbreak, where is Penn St's head right now? I'm sure they cant wait to knock heads in next week's championshipesque game with the conference on the line. But, thats next Saturday. As for today, I doubt Indiana has PSU's undivided attention, at least not enough of it to covdr such a guady number. I like IU's pass rush, by the way, to knock Clark around enough in the early going to keep PSU from going off right out of the gates. Eventually PSU will roll, but it might take a while for this hungover team. I am grabbing the Over, because, well, there's aout a 10-percent chance, PSU comes right out and smokes them, putting themselves in position to cover the Over all by themselves. Consider the Over a hedge in the even PSU puts up a 60-spot.
Iowa -18 over Purdue. For some reason, I dont expect a letdown here. Iowa, like MSU last week, loves Senior Day, going 13-3 ATS in their final home game of the season. The woeful Purude offense scores just 16 ppg, and I think they come in way below that mark today against an Iowa D that permits just 13.3 ppg. Shon Green. Total stud. Rolls to 200 yards today. He better win Big 10 Offensvie Player of the Year. Iowa totally handcuffs Purdue today. Remember, the Boilers are just 4-24 SU, 9-19 ATS against bowl teams, 2-6 in that role this season. I'll follow along one last time this season. This has 31-7 written all over it with Iowa, and their first team D still in the game, coming up with a big defensive stop in the final minute to preserve the Cover. Hopefully, Ferentz does not call for the intentional safety this time.
UM -3 over NW.....do I really have to comment on this one? Cant you just accept I am making one last Homer bet of the year and be ok with that? I'll be at the game and really feel that from recent games that UM has the better running and kicking games right now. Thats the difference in what is going to be a slog fest. I feel UM can do enough today to win by a bit more than a FG today, 20-14.
NCST +4 over Wake.......can NCST really run the tables ATS in ACC play? I'm willing to risk a unit staying on the train for another week. They are the proverbial live dog today. I wouldn't be shocked with a SU win today.
Minny +13.5 over Wisco. Over 47........So Minny has looked fraudelent the last few weeks. Ok. But, it was quite revealing to hear the Michigan players this week note how obvious it was the Gophers were taking them lightly. In a bigger rivalry game for the local fan base, I dont think master motivator Tim Brewster will let that happen twice. This has been one of the crazier rivlary games in recent years with high scoring, roller coaster affairs. Since 1985, this sereis has averaged 50.5 ppg, but its trending upards bigtime with 67.6 ppg scored in the last 8 contests. The loser in this game has exceeed 30 points in five of the last seven contests. This will be a fun high scoring game. Wisconsin wins 41-31, with a big TD run by Clay sealing the deal in the final minute. The Gophers will cover. Obviously like the Over as well.
Oregon St -3 over Cal........The Beavers are 22-10 ATS as home favorites this decade. And, haven't we seen this act like every year? OSU tanks it early, but becomes a solid, moneymaking team over the final month of the season. This year's turnaround could net them a Rose Bowl berth if they keep winning. The train will keep rolling for at least another week. OSU's D wont stone Cal like USC did last week, but it will contain them emough. I love Jacquiz Rodgers. He'll have a big game as the Beavers pull out a 28-17 win. The Beavers are 25-11 ATS in their final four regular season games of the year over the last 10 years, 11-3 ATS in that role as a favorite in Corvallis. You could say I like those numbers.
South Carolina +23, -130, over Florida
Miss St +21.5 over Alabama.
You guessed it, I am staying on the SEC DD Dog train. At this point, it might be foolish to step in front of the Gators right now, but in South Carolina, I really feel like they're playing the best defensive football team thats been on their schedule so far. The major improvement of that unit has paved the way for a nice season for the Gamecocks. In the other game, its obvious Croom has the snake oil to beat his alma mater having done so eacch of the last two years. Here's the deal, I am a junkie and have to have action on a lot of games. I love watching SEC games, but this year I've been getting cleaned out in SEC games. This is in stark contrast to last season where I cleaned up in this league. I feel like I oe Cie Grant a royalty check or something every time I talk about last year's SEC success as I would not have bet half those games without him pointing them out in the first place. Anyway, back to this season. The exception to my current day SEC doldrums have been these double digit dogs, who after a 1-1-1 day last Saturday, are now 10-4-1 ATS this season and 42-13-2 since the start of the 2006 season. Yes, we're heading for a national semifinal between Bama and the Gators, but come one, this is college football. By now we should expect the unexpected, especially in situaitons where conventional wisdom has allegedly figured things out. Would anybody be totally shocked if one of these underdogs rose up and spoiled the party today?
Maryland +3 over UNC.......I like this UNC team a lot, but I like the Terps at home better. The Turtle has already thumped Cal and Wake on this field, no reason to think they wont win today. I'll take the points as a bonus. The terps have covered 7 of 8 in this series.
CSU -1 over New Mexico.....hat tip to AR for getting me on this game. Need winners? Check out his threads. I cant remember whatever stat he dug up for this one, but I like the divergent motivations in this game with NM ending a losing season today, but CSU has two winnable games (this one included) for a path to a bowl game. CSU rolls by 2 touchdowns. Lobos may have quit on their likely lame duck coach, while the Rams will play like a team fighting like hell for a bowl berth.
AF +4 over BYU.......Without any really noticing AF has put together another solid ATS season. They're 7-2 ATS this season and 16-5 in thier 21 games. They've covered 8 of 9 at home and 10 of 11 in league play. BYU will be in for a fight this week and might be caught looking ahead to next week's Utah showdown. AF always pulls a trick or two out of the passing game when playing at home. They will hit on those today and pull off the upset. But, I'll take the points anyway!
Well.....thats 15 bets.....that ought to keep me occupied today.....for now. :SIB
Good Luck Everyone!!:weed:
I've been on a nice run the last several weeks, so lets keep the November good times rolling:
Notre Dame -3 over Navy.......a new streak starts. All this talk about ND this week hides the fact the Navy has regressed a bit in Year 1 post Paul Johnson. In watching them, they dont have the same flair for the play call, and on D they're basically a wreck, whereas Johnson always cobbled together a nice D, despite the limitations there. Claussen will have good protection all day and Navy will have no answers for the emering WR combo of Tate and Floyd. ND bombs away on the Naval Academy.
Illinois +9.5 over OSU.......i still think OSU is vulnerabe to the type of offense Illinois will showcase today. The Illini aren't as good as last year, at least record wise, but I think Juice and Company can do a lot of damage today at home. They have been one of the few teams to find consistent offensive success against Iowa, so that gives me confidence they can have similar success today against an OSU D rounding into form. No Big 10 team has played OSU better in the last two seasons than Illinois and Juice is 9-5 ATS as a dog as a starting QB. Also, OSU is 3-9 ATS the week before the Michigan game, 0-6 hen that foe is named Illinois. Interesting.
IU +36.5 over PSU. Over 57.....taking the dog and the Over here. I know the results on the scoreboard suck for IU lately, but the last three games or so, they've found a bit of offensive stride and have excellent at not giving the ball away. I think they can nab more than a couple scores today and get into the 20s. After last week's huge heartbreak, where is Penn St's head right now? I'm sure they cant wait to knock heads in next week's championshipesque game with the conference on the line. But, thats next Saturday. As for today, I doubt Indiana has PSU's undivided attention, at least not enough of it to covdr such a guady number. I like IU's pass rush, by the way, to knock Clark around enough in the early going to keep PSU from going off right out of the gates. Eventually PSU will roll, but it might take a while for this hungover team. I am grabbing the Over, because, well, there's aout a 10-percent chance, PSU comes right out and smokes them, putting themselves in position to cover the Over all by themselves. Consider the Over a hedge in the even PSU puts up a 60-spot.
Iowa -18 over Purdue. For some reason, I dont expect a letdown here. Iowa, like MSU last week, loves Senior Day, going 13-3 ATS in their final home game of the season. The woeful Purude offense scores just 16 ppg, and I think they come in way below that mark today against an Iowa D that permits just 13.3 ppg. Shon Green. Total stud. Rolls to 200 yards today. He better win Big 10 Offensvie Player of the Year. Iowa totally handcuffs Purdue today. Remember, the Boilers are just 4-24 SU, 9-19 ATS against bowl teams, 2-6 in that role this season. I'll follow along one last time this season. This has 31-7 written all over it with Iowa, and their first team D still in the game, coming up with a big defensive stop in the final minute to preserve the Cover. Hopefully, Ferentz does not call for the intentional safety this time.
UM -3 over NW.....do I really have to comment on this one? Cant you just accept I am making one last Homer bet of the year and be ok with that? I'll be at the game and really feel that from recent games that UM has the better running and kicking games right now. Thats the difference in what is going to be a slog fest. I feel UM can do enough today to win by a bit more than a FG today, 20-14.
NCST +4 over Wake.......can NCST really run the tables ATS in ACC play? I'm willing to risk a unit staying on the train for another week. They are the proverbial live dog today. I wouldn't be shocked with a SU win today.
Minny +13.5 over Wisco. Over 47........So Minny has looked fraudelent the last few weeks. Ok. But, it was quite revealing to hear the Michigan players this week note how obvious it was the Gophers were taking them lightly. In a bigger rivalry game for the local fan base, I dont think master motivator Tim Brewster will let that happen twice. This has been one of the crazier rivlary games in recent years with high scoring, roller coaster affairs. Since 1985, this sereis has averaged 50.5 ppg, but its trending upards bigtime with 67.6 ppg scored in the last 8 contests. The loser in this game has exceeed 30 points in five of the last seven contests. This will be a fun high scoring game. Wisconsin wins 41-31, with a big TD run by Clay sealing the deal in the final minute. The Gophers will cover. Obviously like the Over as well.
Oregon St -3 over Cal........The Beavers are 22-10 ATS as home favorites this decade. And, haven't we seen this act like every year? OSU tanks it early, but becomes a solid, moneymaking team over the final month of the season. This year's turnaround could net them a Rose Bowl berth if they keep winning. The train will keep rolling for at least another week. OSU's D wont stone Cal like USC did last week, but it will contain them emough. I love Jacquiz Rodgers. He'll have a big game as the Beavers pull out a 28-17 win. The Beavers are 25-11 ATS in their final four regular season games of the year over the last 10 years, 11-3 ATS in that role as a favorite in Corvallis. You could say I like those numbers.
South Carolina +23, -130, over Florida
Miss St +21.5 over Alabama.
You guessed it, I am staying on the SEC DD Dog train. At this point, it might be foolish to step in front of the Gators right now, but in South Carolina, I really feel like they're playing the best defensive football team thats been on their schedule so far. The major improvement of that unit has paved the way for a nice season for the Gamecocks. In the other game, its obvious Croom has the snake oil to beat his alma mater having done so eacch of the last two years. Here's the deal, I am a junkie and have to have action on a lot of games. I love watching SEC games, but this year I've been getting cleaned out in SEC games. This is in stark contrast to last season where I cleaned up in this league. I feel like I oe Cie Grant a royalty check or something every time I talk about last year's SEC success as I would not have bet half those games without him pointing them out in the first place. Anyway, back to this season. The exception to my current day SEC doldrums have been these double digit dogs, who after a 1-1-1 day last Saturday, are now 10-4-1 ATS this season and 42-13-2 since the start of the 2006 season. Yes, we're heading for a national semifinal between Bama and the Gators, but come one, this is college football. By now we should expect the unexpected, especially in situaitons where conventional wisdom has allegedly figured things out. Would anybody be totally shocked if one of these underdogs rose up and spoiled the party today?
Maryland +3 over UNC.......I like this UNC team a lot, but I like the Terps at home better. The Turtle has already thumped Cal and Wake on this field, no reason to think they wont win today. I'll take the points as a bonus. The terps have covered 7 of 8 in this series.
CSU -1 over New Mexico.....hat tip to AR for getting me on this game. Need winners? Check out his threads. I cant remember whatever stat he dug up for this one, but I like the divergent motivations in this game with NM ending a losing season today, but CSU has two winnable games (this one included) for a path to a bowl game. CSU rolls by 2 touchdowns. Lobos may have quit on their likely lame duck coach, while the Rams will play like a team fighting like hell for a bowl berth.
AF +4 over BYU.......Without any really noticing AF has put together another solid ATS season. They're 7-2 ATS this season and 16-5 in thier 21 games. They've covered 8 of 9 at home and 10 of 11 in league play. BYU will be in for a fight this week and might be caught looking ahead to next week's Utah showdown. AF always pulls a trick or two out of the passing game when playing at home. They will hit on those today and pull off the upset. But, I'll take the points anyway!
Well.....thats 15 bets.....that ought to keep me occupied today.....for now. :SIB
Good Luck Everyone!!:weed:
