Week 12
season 7-6-1 +.67 units
Packers 6-4-1-32 offense 3-10-19-7 defense
@Lions 7-14-9-29 offense 24-26-30-8 defense
When I first looked at this game I had Packers by a lot, but the line movement says I should be on Detroit. It looks similar to when Lions played arizona, where public one side and the line moves opposite due to sharp action. I'm looking for reasons to take Lions here. Hunted around for stuff to make me feel better about picking lions. Kramer on another forum had a bunch of notes.
DET defense has creating 30 turnovers, but DE Dewayne White (51/2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles), who has an elbow injury, might not play.
DET has 19 rushes for a net 7 yards the past 2 games.
In DET?s six wins, the Lions have averaged 24.7 rushing attempts. In the four losses, they have averaged 12.3 carries.
Kevin Jones has been nursing a sore foot, and it was obvious last week (11-25). He hasn?t had a carry longer than 12 yards in the past 3 games.
GB?s run defense has been solid most of the season. They have contained MIN RB Adrian Peterson (twice), KC RB Larry Johnson, WAS RB Clinton Portis and SD RB LaDainian Tomlinson.
Lions have allowed a league-worst 43 sacks on the year, and are last in the NFL in rushing offense (76.9 yards per game)...
Packers expected to be without defensive tackle Johnny Jolly (shoulder) and safety Nick Collins (knee)
Really I can't see why there is not value in the GB side, but I'm going with Detroit.
Detroit +3.5
Jets 23-29-22-22 o 27-30-24-32
@ Cowboys 2-2-3-10 21-7-16-5
Look for value betting against the Jets this week. I'm ignoring last week as Steel City likes to play to opponents level.
I haven't seen half lines reflect that Dallas is a 2nd half team. I'm thinking Jets 1st half, Dallas 2nd. Line should be -17
it's 14 so i'm getting on the boys.
Colts 3-3-6-9 o 6-3-2-16 d
@Falcons 31-27-23-20 14-16-11-23
Have to look into colts injuries. colts -11
Titans 17-22-29-4 o 7-2-7-4
@Bengals 9-8-5-28 30-31-28-27
Tennessee loves bad run defenses. They ran the ball 39 times against the Texans. Bengals pk. see what happens monday night and then hop on the line right after.
Seahawks 13-12-8-21 o 2-11-20-10
@Rams 29-21-15-26 o 29-19-15-22
Seahawks have had the easiest schedule in the NFL so far, and the Rams with the #31 schedule, so both these teams stats are inflated.
Rams still #30 in total DVOA. Seattle way ahead on special teams.
Seahawks -7.5
Seahawks -3 -106
Vikings 20-16-31-1 o 17-29-32-3
@Giants 8-13-20-6 18-8-9-9
Giants are mainly a running team, and they won't be able to do it well against the #3 run defense. Peterson out another week. I've been convinced that Peterson out is only worth 1 point. Giants -7.5
Saints 12-6-4-27 o 25-25-29-14
@Panthers 26-28-27-12 13-13-14-19
Saints -1
Redskins 18-20-24-8 o 19-12-22-11
@Buccaneers 21-15-16-15 4-6-3-18
TB is 6-4 and ranked #6 in total DVOA, right behind GB. They are just not putting points on the board. Redskins schedule somewhat tougher. Bucs -6
Bucs -3 -117
Texans 11-9-8-7-23 o 26-18-13-24
@Browns 4-11-10-18 32-32-31-28
20 percent DVOA difference in browns favor. AJ did well with 120 yards last week. Cleveland with tougher schedule. found this analysis from footballoutsiders Ned Macy:
also cleveland is fifth in pass protection and eighth in run blocking (a combined rank beaten only by the Colts and Patriots)
Browns -10
Browns -3.5 +108
Bills 27-31-28-17 o 9-28-26-20
@Jaguars 16-17-26-3 8-23-27-15
Jags are pretty good. -7.
Raiders 24-26-30-5 o 20-17-4-29
@Chiefs 30-30-17-31 10-15-18-17
KC -10. Raiders like to find ways to lose games.
Chiefs -6 +106
Now that I did some more research I have to buy this back. KC has a bunch of problems. I'll wait till game time to buy back. I lose .2 units if KC wins by 6
I'll look at the afternoon games later.
season 7-6-1 +.67 units
Packers 6-4-1-32 offense 3-10-19-7 defense
@Lions 7-14-9-29 offense 24-26-30-8 defense
When I first looked at this game I had Packers by a lot, but the line movement says I should be on Detroit. It looks similar to when Lions played arizona, where public one side and the line moves opposite due to sharp action. I'm looking for reasons to take Lions here. Hunted around for stuff to make me feel better about picking lions. Kramer on another forum had a bunch of notes.
DET defense has creating 30 turnovers, but DE Dewayne White (51/2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles), who has an elbow injury, might not play.
DET has 19 rushes for a net 7 yards the past 2 games.
In DET?s six wins, the Lions have averaged 24.7 rushing attempts. In the four losses, they have averaged 12.3 carries.
Kevin Jones has been nursing a sore foot, and it was obvious last week (11-25). He hasn?t had a carry longer than 12 yards in the past 3 games.
GB?s run defense has been solid most of the season. They have contained MIN RB Adrian Peterson (twice), KC RB Larry Johnson, WAS RB Clinton Portis and SD RB LaDainian Tomlinson.
Lions have allowed a league-worst 43 sacks on the year, and are last in the NFL in rushing offense (76.9 yards per game)...
Packers expected to be without defensive tackle Johnny Jolly (shoulder) and safety Nick Collins (knee)
Really I can't see why there is not value in the GB side, but I'm going with Detroit.
Detroit +3.5
Jets 23-29-22-22 o 27-30-24-32
@ Cowboys 2-2-3-10 21-7-16-5
Look for value betting against the Jets this week. I'm ignoring last week as Steel City likes to play to opponents level.
I haven't seen half lines reflect that Dallas is a 2nd half team. I'm thinking Jets 1st half, Dallas 2nd. Line should be -17
it's 14 so i'm getting on the boys.
Colts 3-3-6-9 o 6-3-2-16 d
@Falcons 31-27-23-20 14-16-11-23
Have to look into colts injuries. colts -11
Titans 17-22-29-4 o 7-2-7-4
@Bengals 9-8-5-28 30-31-28-27
Tennessee loves bad run defenses. They ran the ball 39 times against the Texans. Bengals pk. see what happens monday night and then hop on the line right after.
Seahawks 13-12-8-21 o 2-11-20-10
@Rams 29-21-15-26 o 29-19-15-22
Seahawks have had the easiest schedule in the NFL so far, and the Rams with the #31 schedule, so both these teams stats are inflated.
Rams still #30 in total DVOA. Seattle way ahead on special teams.
Seahawks -7.5
Seahawks -3 -106
Vikings 20-16-31-1 o 17-29-32-3
@Giants 8-13-20-6 18-8-9-9
Giants are mainly a running team, and they won't be able to do it well against the #3 run defense. Peterson out another week. I've been convinced that Peterson out is only worth 1 point. Giants -7.5
Saints 12-6-4-27 o 25-25-29-14
@Panthers 26-28-27-12 13-13-14-19
Saints -1
Redskins 18-20-24-8 o 19-12-22-11
@Buccaneers 21-15-16-15 4-6-3-18
TB is 6-4 and ranked #6 in total DVOA, right behind GB. They are just not putting points on the board. Redskins schedule somewhat tougher. Bucs -6
Bucs -3 -117
Texans 11-9-8-7-23 o 26-18-13-24
@Browns 4-11-10-18 32-32-31-28
20 percent DVOA difference in browns favor. AJ did well with 120 yards last week. Cleveland with tougher schedule. found this analysis from footballoutsiders Ned Macy:
So lets see how the texans pass defense is. #24?
also cleveland is fifth in pass protection and eighth in run blocking (a combined rank beaten only by the Colts and Patriots)
Browns -10
Browns -3.5 +108
Bills 27-31-28-17 o 9-28-26-20
@Jaguars 16-17-26-3 8-23-27-15
Jags are pretty good. -7.
Raiders 24-26-30-5 o 20-17-4-29
@Chiefs 30-30-17-31 10-15-18-17
KC -10. Raiders like to find ways to lose games.
Chiefs -6 +106
Now that I did some more research I have to buy this back. KC has a bunch of problems. I'll wait till game time to buy back. I lose .2 units if KC wins by 6
I'll look at the afternoon games later.
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