Week 13 Arena Football Picks

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Arena Friday:

YTD 18-23

Buffalo -3.5 Over Carolina

This game is two-fold for Buffalo. Win and they are in the playoffs, lose and they must win next week at LA to get in. This team is fired up to play and clinch a spot. Also 5 Destroyer players are former Cobras including QB Fred McNair, so it will be ultra sweet to get in the playoffs, while knocking your former team out.

San Jose -3 over Arizona

It may look like SJ may not have a lot to play for, but a perfect season would put this team among the all-time great teams in AFL History. They can't do that unless they beat Arizona, who they have beaten the last 5 times. Rattlers don't really have a lot to play for, they are in the playoffs and clinched a 1st round bye, I think they may just want to escape this game healthy and if they fall behind too big, look for Bonner to be pulled. SJ is 16-4 ATS against their own division last 20 while Arizona is 0-7 ATS off a road win by 6 points or less.

 

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Arena Saturday

New York +2 over Grand Rapids

Nothing in Arena has been making sense the last 6 weeks, so no surprise if this play doesn't either. At 2-10, Dragons could easily give up, but it was clear that they are going to play for pride in this game. Grand Rapids has just as bad, if not worse defense than New York and has struggled on the road, they are 1-7 ATS as a fav this season and 1-6 ATS as a road fav since 1996. This is final home game for New York, so if they are going to salvage anything from this season, it will be right here.

Tampa Bay/Detroit Over 91

Both these teams are pretty awful, but Tampa is still making a playoff push and has to win here while Detroit is looking toward next season. Despite the record, the Storm rank 4th in total offense and have scored 45 or more, 6 of the last 7 games. While Detroit has allowed 49 or more the last 6. Detroit also lost its defensive captain Kevin Scott for the season, he was their lone playmaker and playcaller on defense. 91 seems very reachable here.

New Jersey -3.5 over Toronto

A 1st round bye is well within NJ's grasp if they can win here and HC Frank Haege stated there would be no complacency this week. Toronto has been bitten severely by the injury bug, losing multiple players every week, thus they have to play most of the game short-handed. QB Pat O'Hara has thrown just 13 TDs in 6 games. Gladiator offense has racked up 138 points the last 2 weeks, Toronto has surrendered 116. That looks like trouble.

Georgia PK over Orlando

The Southern Division is the worst in the AFL, not one team is over .500 and an under .500 team could win this quite likely. Georgia is currently 13th in the playoff seedings, which would keep them out of the playoffs, so this game is huge. Orlando has just 2 home wins in 6 tries and every time they have a shot to win a big game, they blow it, especially at home. Predators fail to put teams away. Orlando may also be without a kicker as Nick Gatto has a sprained back. Georgia beat Orlando in Week 1 and has the means and motivation to do it again.

Chicago -6 over Dallas

Whichever team wins here is likely to be in the driver's seat for a 1st round bye. Chicago has the definite advantage here as they are 5-0 at home, beating opponents by an average score of 59-34. They are #1 in the league in turnover ratio while Dallas is 13th in total defense, last in pass defense. If Andy Kelly has a weakness, it is throwing an INT at the wrong time and Chicago takes advantage of mistakes better than any team in the league. Dallas had to beat Detroit on a last second TD last week, so they are still prone to expansion team mistakes.