week 13-first look

[pepin46]

there are a lot of question marks for this week's games. rather than make a hasty decision at the very end, or speculate now, i will disregard those where some key players are questionable and concentrate on the ones that can be handicapped now.


sanfran/st lou

st louis handles them at will, last game in sanfran not as close as final score, as st lou dominated the game. a pick

tenn/minn

too many unknowns. pass

carol/buff

ditto. pass

chi/gb

i won't try to brake the pattern: chi wins at gb and gb wins at chi. not overly impressed with either team, but the nod goes to chi to keep the tradition going.

clev/ne

clev finally "broke" vs tenn last week, and now face the boogy man himself. without blinking an eye: n.e. is another pick.

detroit/tb

rookie qb makes it too much of a gamble either way. pass

jax/cinci

again, qb for jax in doubt. pass.

n.o./atlanta

many questions with chandler. pass

giants/dallas

i fell for it once more last week. never touch dallas either way. PASS

sandiego/philly

interesting possibilities here. i looked at buff w/flutie and they handled philly at will for the last 5 or 6 games. sandiego's previous with philly was also a win. i also believe that flutie can win any game any time he wants, and this may be one of those times. small money line and possible pick.

wash/ariz

everything here points to a very tight game. i must go with the skins to pick themselves back up while ariz is still celebrating their oak win.

kc/oak

ariz irked oak and now kc will get punched in the mouth. oak will come right at them from kickoff. first half over another possibility. this game should be a rout.
oak. another firm pick.

jets/pitt

if pitt doesn't have bettis, forget it. pass for the time being. if he is confirmed out, i will take the jets minus whatever.

seattle/denver

they are both struggling and the line is a bit fat, leaning to seattle.

indy/miami

indy is fast becoming everyone's punching bag, and making opposing offenses look mighty, and miami certainly wants a piece of it. give the points. looks like another pick here.


pep

 

[BAINS]

Jets and Pitts under defenitely if Bettis plays, both of these teams are capable with # 1 and #2 run games of eating 7 -9 minute drives with the ball that will end in 3 points. Look for a physical affair from both teams in a low scoring affair.

San Fran- Their offense is clicking on all cylinders with Garcia, he hates to lose, and is seeing the whole field, Hurst is running well, San Fran defense is young, talented and playing better and not afraid of the Rams. Many defensive co-ordinators have figured out Kurt Warner's tendecies, they send a lot of stunts and pressure right up the middle which throws Warner's timimg off. He hasn't look impressive in many games this year.

 

[BAINS]

Agree Oakland could blow KC out of the stadium, they don't run the ball well which is good for Oakland, and everybody knows that Green couldn't hit the side of a Walmart.

Also leaning heavily to New England, this team plays like a team in all facets of the game, and are led by an emerging star THOMAS BRADY. Browns aren't nearly as good as people conceived them to be. New England is clearly playing the best football in the AFC and are still without Ted Johnson and a healthy COX.

 

[Nick Douglas]

pep,

Haven't chatted with you in a while. I know you said you had a great NFL season last year, hitting about 58%. Just wondering how you are doing this year. Hopefully you are having a solid year. Take care.

Nick

 

[pepin46]

bains

i missed the buff/s.f. game and was very disappointed to say the least, as buff could not cover 21 points for my superteaser, so i really cannot measure that one. i assume it was just one of those impossible runaway games, which happen on ocassion.

i have to go by past performance, and it is very clear that st louis dominates s.f.
this line should be around 10 in my opinion, which is the least i expect st louis will clear.

the sanfran/indy game was a joke, and they did have two very good efforts, one in their freakly loss to chicago and they bare win over the jets, both away. the other games have been mostly cliff-hangers with so-so teams.

in my opinion, this is not the team that can stay with st louis td for td. they should end up short 1 to 2 scores here. i wrote a detailed piece on the match-up forum touching on the last game they played, if you care to look at it.

st louis's problems have been, and are, those teams with the big defenses, which sanfran is not; phil, giants,tampa, and the lone exception, n.o., who has st louis's number.

nick

my "official" record is in the acesgold contest. i struggled for a while, got back up in the black and intend to stay there and hopefully make a run at something, although i see there are some real tigers up there who will be tough to catch up with.

the percentage is above 50, but not much. i really haven't figured it out since the contest is measured in $$$. in real dough, i am down about 300 for the year, which includes all my wild teaser and parlay schemes, so that is not too bad.

i am having fun, hitting a little something here and there, and sharing with you guys, and these 3 make my season a good one.


pep

 

[BAINS]

You are right about Stlouis havign 49'ers number but one thing I can tell you is that the 49'ers are palying their best ball of the season while the Rams aren't. I expect a close game as you will see laying 9 points to Garcia is too much. He will prove that he can take the 49'ers to the next level and compete with the Rams. I believe they are a live underdog.

 

[phoenix566]

sanfran/st lou

agree with Bains here. I think we are seeing a SF team that has reached the 'next' level. I still don't believe they are at the top level, but definately on the rise. Sunday's game will be a key one in helping sustain the credibility they are building. I believe they give Rams a run for their money and possibly win outright for the season series split.

tenn/minn

trends suggest Minn. ugly game though. pass

carol/buff

uglier game. pass

chi/gb

da bears, da bears. even better spot after GB win monday night.

clev/ne

my initial lean was to NE as well, but don't quite know if Cle will bounce back and make this a game. I have been riding Cle for some time thanks to their solid D, yet they face a team that is clicking on all the cylinders it has in NE (very impressive turn around from beginning of year. kudos to them). NE probably covers but looks like a probable pass to me.

detroit/tb

like the rookie. like the 9 points better. really like TB ineptness at covering high spreads.

jax/cinci

please pass the grey poupon.

n.o./atlanta

if chandler were playing.....maybe...a play on Atl. otherwise pass.

giants/dallas

Dallas is the only play I see here. Is it worthy of playing....initial thought is maybe small.

sandiego/philly

strong trends in favor of SD and against Philly here. At 7 or more I think SD has a lot of value.


wash/ariz

this will probably be a close game, perhaps even a shootout of sorts. I as do you like Wash to bounce back here. This will not be one of the strong plays, but definatlely looks like a play.

kc/oak

I agree Oak will want to come out punching in this one, but will the Chiefs act like punching bags and just take it? KC seems to always find a way to play Oak close and 9 points looks attractive in a game I don't percieve to be a rout.

jets/pitt

Pitt has dominated the Jets through the years when they played. They played last year but had not met for like 7 or 8 years prior to that. LY Pitt won 20-3, a large part due to clock management by pounding out major yardage with Jerome. Jets were playing good ball at the time they met LY also and the 9 points they were getting at HOME looked enticing, but obviously wasn't tasty. This appears as a 'we got your number' scenario to me and I think Pitt can pull a repeat of last year. Depending on the line possible play on Pitt with or without Bettis.


seattle/denver

need to look at more. possible play on Sea.

indy/miami

MNF Division rivalry game. Finally it appears everyone has given up on Indy. Miami was relatively 'lucky' to cover their last two. Perhaps that same luck will exist in this game as well. Without the 'luck' factor Indy appears to have value getting 5 points.

 

[pepin46]

phoenix

a little counter-counter point:

i have looked hard at this sf/stl game, and after i add everything up, stl should have it in the bag. no ot thriller here. i see a final of 35-17 or so.

i have looked hard at both teams' weaknesses, especially st louis, and sf is not the one who can make it close. stl is still the standard, and nothing really has happened in sf, except a laugher in indy and the purpose of crushing a nothing team at home. is garcia a bit better? it appears so, but they need more than just garcia to make this a game.

i really think that if buff had been within 10 points of sf, this line would have come in around 9-10, and i still think i may move up there when the late dough starts coming in.


pep

 

[phoenix566]

there is always a danger in playing against St L - on any given Sunday they CAN light it up. I believe that some of the best value can be found going against them as this is usually factored into every Ram line. I think that some value does exist with SF this week. I also respect your leans and based on other games/factors would not play this one big.

 

[Senor Capper]

Rams have won 5 straight games vs Niners while compiling a 4-1 ATS mark.
Only covering 1 at home.

Rams are 1-12-1 ATS home vs SF since 1987.

Rams won the first meeting this year 30-26 but failed to cover (-6.5)

Rams are a lowly 4-10 ATS in theri last 14 HGs.

Last 2 SF games in St. Louis Rams tallied up 83 points.

SF 3-1 ATS this season as a underdog

SF 5-0 ATS after playing Bills since 1983