YTD: 93-83-5
Last Week. Not Good. 5-13. Worst week of the season. Perfect time at the end of the year, right!?!? :director:
But, that was last week.....this week......you know, before we even get to this week:
I hope everyone out there in the Madjack community had an awesome Thanksgiving. I know one of the things I am thankful for is this here gambling refuge, where there's never a loss for compelling threads to contribute to....and effing silly ones that make me laugh my drink through the nose.....heck, I am even thankful for the H/K this year. I feel so part of the 'in' crowd being in the negatives with so many MJ old timers.
But thats pro football.....this is college.....I have a few plays on this sparse day of college football....it does feel like a dud bowl day, doesn't it?
WVA, ML -150, over Pitt......I am cheesing out and going moneyline on this one, risking 1.5 units to win 1. Everytime I play this out, WVA gets the win. I think I am bit scarred still from last week and got lulled into the extra juice. I think I am playing safe, hopefully I am not playing with fire. Anyway, back to the actual game: WVA is a good road investment, banking 15-7 ATS away from Morgantown, while Pitt has been a terrible home investment, going 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games at Heinz Field. Breaking those numbers down a bit, reveals WVA is 11-1-1 if the foe is not a killer and has a winning percentage off less than .750. Conversely, Pitt is 1-8 ATS at home if their playing a solid team, with a winning mark of over .600.Plus, the Panthers have perennialy been a poor bounce bacck, checking in at 16-35 ATS when coming in off a loss. Too many technical marks come in against Pitt. I like the Mountaineers ground game in this one. Doesn't it just feel like Wanny's boys are deflated, while Pat White might just go off, the way he wanted to in last year's epic upset. WVA gets a little revenge today.
Miss St +19 over Ole Miss......the Egg Bowl provides us with another chance to try and make a little coin milking SEC DD dogs. How has the trend gone this year? They've gone 10-6, which is a little more than three units. Depending what your measure, thats a nice drop in the bucket. Of course, this season this bandwagon has found its kryptonite: The Mighty Florida Gators. SEC DD Dogs are 1-4 against the Gators; 9-2 against everyone else in the league. Today, we have a rivalry game. I like those to be close. MSU is 2-1 as an SEC DD Dog this year. I dont think Ole Miss will win this one by more than two touchdowns.
Toledo +1.5 over BGSU........I think these two play for a Peace Pipe. Appropriate post Thanksgiving, if you ask me. Perhaps I will take my own hit off a peace pipe when this kicks as a tribute. Speaking of tribute, I have a gut feeling Toledo will send Amstutz out with a big win. BG, like Pitt above, is not much of a bounce back team. You have to question where BG's mind is going to be after last week's gag job in the division title game. Of course, that result leads us to one of the more fun trends this board has tracked all season: Fading OT losers the following week. Rockets win this one by a touchdown.
Good Luck!! :toast:
Last Week. Not Good. 5-13. Worst week of the season. Perfect time at the end of the year, right!?!? :director:
But, that was last week.....this week......you know, before we even get to this week:
I hope everyone out there in the Madjack community had an awesome Thanksgiving. I know one of the things I am thankful for is this here gambling refuge, where there's never a loss for compelling threads to contribute to....and effing silly ones that make me laugh my drink through the nose.....heck, I am even thankful for the H/K this year. I feel so part of the 'in' crowd being in the negatives with so many MJ old timers.
But thats pro football.....this is college.....I have a few plays on this sparse day of college football....it does feel like a dud bowl day, doesn't it?
WVA, ML -150, over Pitt......I am cheesing out and going moneyline on this one, risking 1.5 units to win 1. Everytime I play this out, WVA gets the win. I think I am bit scarred still from last week and got lulled into the extra juice. I think I am playing safe, hopefully I am not playing with fire. Anyway, back to the actual game: WVA is a good road investment, banking 15-7 ATS away from Morgantown, while Pitt has been a terrible home investment, going 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games at Heinz Field. Breaking those numbers down a bit, reveals WVA is 11-1-1 if the foe is not a killer and has a winning percentage off less than .750. Conversely, Pitt is 1-8 ATS at home if their playing a solid team, with a winning mark of over .600.Plus, the Panthers have perennialy been a poor bounce bacck, checking in at 16-35 ATS when coming in off a loss. Too many technical marks come in against Pitt. I like the Mountaineers ground game in this one. Doesn't it just feel like Wanny's boys are deflated, while Pat White might just go off, the way he wanted to in last year's epic upset. WVA gets a little revenge today.
Miss St +19 over Ole Miss......the Egg Bowl provides us with another chance to try and make a little coin milking SEC DD dogs. How has the trend gone this year? They've gone 10-6, which is a little more than three units. Depending what your measure, thats a nice drop in the bucket. Of course, this season this bandwagon has found its kryptonite: The Mighty Florida Gators. SEC DD Dogs are 1-4 against the Gators; 9-2 against everyone else in the league. Today, we have a rivalry game. I like those to be close. MSU is 2-1 as an SEC DD Dog this year. I dont think Ole Miss will win this one by more than two touchdowns.
Toledo +1.5 over BGSU........I think these two play for a Peace Pipe. Appropriate post Thanksgiving, if you ask me. Perhaps I will take my own hit off a peace pipe when this kicks as a tribute. Speaking of tribute, I have a gut feeling Toledo will send Amstutz out with a big win. BG, like Pitt above, is not much of a bounce back team. You have to question where BG's mind is going to be after last week's gag job in the division title game. Of course, that result leads us to one of the more fun trends this board has tracked all season: Fading OT losers the following week. Rockets win this one by a touchdown.
Good Luck!! :toast:
