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Week 14 Games
Giants (8-4) @ Vikings (5-7) - Minnesota 2-0 with Frazier as interim coach, allowing 13.5 ppg (forced 10 3/outs on 21 drives), but they won last week despite throwing four INTs (had five takeaways), which doesn?t happen much. Vikings won last four in series, including 44-7 debacle LY. Manning hasn?t been sacked in last five games; Giants were held to 20 or less points in all four losses- they?re 7-0 if they score more than 20 points. Minnesota had allowed 24+ points in five straight games before coaching change was made- is noticeable that team plays harder with Childress gone. NFC North underdogs are 9-6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Viking games, but 0-3 in Giants? last three.
Raiders (6-6) @ Jaguars (7-5) - Jags won four of last five games (5-0 vs spread), running ball for average of 184.6 ypg; they?ve won three of four games vs Oakland, winning last three meetings by average score of 27-9. Raiders lost 49-11 in only visit here, in ?07. Jaguars are 3-0 as a favorite this year, winning by 7-7-4 points; this is first time all year they?ve been favored by more than 2 points. Only one of Oakland?s six losses was by less than 7 points; they?re 3-3 as road dog, but were outscored 44-10 in second half of last three games. AFC south home favorites are 6-8 out of division; AFC West road underdogs are 5-7. Three of last four Jaguar home games went over total.
Bengals (2-10) @ Steelers (9-3) - Roethlisberger had broken nose operated on during week, is expected to play here. Pitt (-5.5) hung on to beat Bengals 27-21 in Week 9 Monday nighter, their 13th win in last 18 series games, but Cincy is 3-2 SU in last five visits here. Steelers won last three games overall, allowing 9.7 ppg (two TDs on 33 drives); they?re 3-2 at home, winning by 6-18-32 points (2-2 as home favorite). Bengals haven?t won since baseball season, losing last nine games- they?re 1-3 as a road underdog, losing away games by 14-3-7-6-16 points. Dogs are 5-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this year. Last three Steeler games stayed under total. In last three games, Bengals allowed 79 2nd half points in 90:00. Not good.
Patriots (10-2) @ Bears (9-3) - Bears are 6-1 SU this year when an underdog. Short week and travel for NE squad off resounding 45-3 win in rivalry game Monday, their 4th win in row; Pats scored 40 ppg in those four wins (16 TDs/41 drives)- they were held to 14 in each of their losses. Chicago is 5-0 since its bye, allowing just 15.6 ppg (8 TDs on 50 drives); they?re getting balance on offense (123 RY/game) with only five giveaways during win streak. Teams are 8-1 vs spread the week after playing Detroit. Favorites are 3-5 vs spread the week after playing the Jets. Last six Patriot games went over total, as have five of their six road games. Patriots are 5-1 vs Chicago since 46-10 loss in Super Bowl XX.
Browns (5-7) @ Bills (2-10) - Dating back to ?09, Cleveland is 9-7 in last 16 games, 4-2 in last six; they won last three games in Lake Erie rivalry by 8-2-3 points, winning by unlikely 8-0/6-3 scores. Browns won last two weeks by combined total of 4 points; they?re +11 in turnovers over last six games (were -4 before that). Bills are 4-2-1 vs. spread in last seven games, with only one loss by more than 3 points in that stretch. Worst thing they did last week was KO Favre; Vikings played harder with Jackson at QB. Hillis could have big day against Buffalo defense that allowed 206-210 rushing yards in last two games. Bills were outscored 75-21 in first half of last three games. Home teams are 0-3 the week after playing Minnesota (were favored in all three). Six of last seven Cleveland games went over total.
Packers (9-3) @ Detroit (2-10) - Lions outgained Pack 431-261 in 28-26 loss at Lambeau (+14) in Week 4, but 13 penalties, three turnovers (+1) cost them 10th straight series loss (six of seven by 10+ points). Green Bay won last four visits here by 7-11-23-22 points. Pack won five of last six games, with last three wins all by 18+ points; they?re 3-3 on road, 2-2 as road favorite. Detroit is 9-3 vs spread this year, with six of 10 losses by 5 or less points; they?re 3-1 as home dog, losing home games by 3-3-16-4 points (beat Rams/Redskins), but they?ve been outscored 73-19 in second half of their last three games. Teams are just 2-6 week after playing 49ers. Eight of last nine Detroit games went over the total.
Falcons (10-2) @ Panthers (1-11) - Carolina lost its last six games (1-5 vs spread); they?re 1-3 as home underdog, losing last two home games by combined score of 71-16. Hard to win without a competent QB. Falcons won last six games, covered last four, but only one of the six wins was by more than 7 points; they?re 7-3 as favorite this year, 3-1 on road. Home side won last five series games; Falcons lost last two visits here. Four of last five series totals in Charlotte were 33 or less. Home teams are 1-7 vs. spread in NFC south divisional games; home dogs are 0-3. Six of last seven Falcon games went over total, as did last four Carolina games. Nine of Panthers? 11 losses are by 10+ points.
Buccaneers (7-5) @ Redskins (5-7) - Tampa Bay is 4-1 in games decided by 4 or less points, Redskins are 4-3 in games decided by 5 or less. Skins are -8 in turnovers last four games, with only three takeaways. Suspension of Haynesworth could hurt; they?re allowing 50 more rushing yards per game in games he sat out. Home side won five of last six series games, with all six decided by 6 or less points; Washington lost four of last five games, scoring 13 ppg in last three (3 TD?s on 35 drives). Bucs are 7-0 vs teams with .500 or worse records, 0-5 vs winning teams; they?re 4-2 on road, losing at Atlanta-Baltimore. NFC South road favorites are 2-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last three Redskin games stayed under the total.
Rams (6-6) @ Saints (9-3) - Defending champs are hot, winning last five games (4-1 vs. spread), scoring 33 ppg in last four games (15 TDs on last 41 drives); Saints are 4-2 at home, 2-3-1 as home faves, winning by 5-2-10-15 points at home (lost to Falcons/Browns). Rams held eight of 12 foes to 18 or less points; they?re 1-3 in other four games, losing by 38-3-17 points, but are also 4-1 as road dogs. Third week in row on road for St Louis team that is 0-2 against teams with winning records this year (17-18 at Bucs, 17-34 vs Falcons- they?re 2-1 vs teams with .500 records); Rams won last two weeks on road- they?ve only turned ball over twice in last five games (+6). NFC West road underdogs are 6-8 vs. spread in non-divisional games. Saints? last three games went over total.
Dolphins (6-6) @ Jets (9-3) - Jets got whacked 45-3 Monday night, ending 4-game win streak; they were held without TD in all three losses. Gang Green is 2-3 as home favorite, winning home tilts by 14-9-3-16 points (lost to Ravens/Packers). Dolphins are 5-1 on road, 4-1 as road dog; only road loss was 26-10 at Baltimore. Miami won three of last four series games, after losing previous eight; average total in their last three visits here, 51.7. Jets (+2) won first matchup this year 31-23 in Week 3, as Sanchez averaged 9.1 ypa and Jets converted 6-11 on 3rd down. Home sides are 2-5 vs. spread in AFC East divisional games. Nine of last eleven Jet games went over total, but Jets haven?t scored first half TD in either of their last two games.
Seahawks (6-6) @ 49ers (4-8) - Clueless Niners apparently fired their DB coach this week, and also changed QB?s again, as Alex Smith will start this game; they got crushed 31-6 (-3) at Seattle in season opener, converting just 1-15 on 3rd down, going 3/out on 6 of 11 drives. Seattle won five of last seven visits here, with three of last four totals at this site 34 or less. 49ers are 3-6 as favorite this year, 1-3 at home; they?re 2-3 at Candlestick, beating Oakland 17-9, Rams 23-20 in OT. Seahawks lost four of last six games; they?re 2-4 on road, 2-3 as road dog, losing away games by 17-17-30-15 points (won at Chicago/Arizona). Underdogs are 5-2-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games this season. Last five Seattle games went over the total.
Broncos (3-9) @ Cardinals (3-9) - Not lot to choose from here; Denver just fired its coach- they?ve lost seven of last eight games, are 5-17 in last 22 games overall. Arizona lost its last seven games, is starting Fordham rookie Skelton here; he has strong arm, but is very raw. Cardinals lost last four home games, allowing 30 ppg; they?ve gone 3/out on 18 of last 34 drives at home, and didn?t score TD in last two games (21 drives). Denver lost its last four road games by average of 12 points. NFC West home underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC West favorites are 9-7, 2-2 on road. Teams are 2-7 (4-2 vs spread as dogs) week after playing the Rams; favorites are 2-0-1 week after playing the Chiefs. Seven of last ten Arizona games went over the total.
Chiefs (8-4) @ Chargers (6-6) - Favorites are 0-7 vs spread week after playing Oakland. Chiefs won last three games, running ball for average of 204.7 ypg; they?re just 2-4 on road, winning 16-14 in Cleveland (+3), 42-24 in Seattle (-1.5) but they did beat San Diego 21-14 in season opener (+4.5), despite being outgained by 192 yards. KC ran punt back for TD in that game, their first series win in last six tries. KC lost five of last six visits here, with only one of losses by less than 7 points. Chargers had 4-game win streak snapped last week; they?re 4-2 at home, with all four wins by 8+ points (4-2 as HF). Underdogs are 6-2 vs. spread in AFC West divisional games. Last three Charger games stayed under total, but six of last eight Chief games went over. Chiefs' starting QB Cassel had an appendectomy Wednesday, most likely it was an emergency. Trust me-- from someone who has had one of these, he is not playing in San Diego Sunday. Backup Croyle is 0-9 as an NFL starter.
Eagles (8-4) @ Cowboys (4-8) - Seven of last eight Eagle games went over total, as did last nine Dallas games. Cowboys are 3-1 under Garrett (4-0 vs spread), losing to Saints by FG, so they?re playing with more energy since coaching change; Pokes were 3-0 vs Philly LY, winning by average score of 26-10. Home team won five of last six series games, as Eagles lost last three visits here. Philly is 4-1 since its bye, but banged-up defense allowed 55 points in last two games (8 TDs on 19 drives)- they?ve scored 26+ points in all five games since their bye (4-1). Road team is 10-0-1 vs spread in game involving team that played Colts the previous week; home teams are 1-4 SU, 0-4-1 vs spread week after playing Indy, allowing 32.6 ppg.
Ravens (8-4) @ Texans (5-7) - Baltimore has to be smarting after losing pivotal game to Steelers last week on sack/fumble with 3:14 left when they had 10-6 lead and the ball, but Ravens are 3-0 in game following a loss this year, winning by 7-3-24 points (1-2 as favorite in those games). Baltimore is just 3-3 on road, with five of six games decided by 5 or less points. Houston can score, putting up 20+ points in nine of 12 games, but they?re 3-3 at home, and allowed 30+ points in seven of last eight games (shut Titans out when 3rd-stringer Smith played QB). AFC South underdogs are 8-6 vs spread in non-division games, 0-2 at home. AFC North favorites are 6-11, 3-2 on road. Four of last five Houston games went over total. Ravens won all three series games, by 4-1-28 points.
Week 14 Games
Giants (8-4) @ Vikings (5-7) - Minnesota 2-0 with Frazier as interim coach, allowing 13.5 ppg (forced 10 3/outs on 21 drives), but they won last week despite throwing four INTs (had five takeaways), which doesn?t happen much. Vikings won last four in series, including 44-7 debacle LY. Manning hasn?t been sacked in last five games; Giants were held to 20 or less points in all four losses- they?re 7-0 if they score more than 20 points. Minnesota had allowed 24+ points in five straight games before coaching change was made- is noticeable that team plays harder with Childress gone. NFC North underdogs are 9-6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Viking games, but 0-3 in Giants? last three.
Raiders (6-6) @ Jaguars (7-5) - Jags won four of last five games (5-0 vs spread), running ball for average of 184.6 ypg; they?ve won three of four games vs Oakland, winning last three meetings by average score of 27-9. Raiders lost 49-11 in only visit here, in ?07. Jaguars are 3-0 as a favorite this year, winning by 7-7-4 points; this is first time all year they?ve been favored by more than 2 points. Only one of Oakland?s six losses was by less than 7 points; they?re 3-3 as road dog, but were outscored 44-10 in second half of last three games. AFC south home favorites are 6-8 out of division; AFC West road underdogs are 5-7. Three of last four Jaguar home games went over total.
Bengals (2-10) @ Steelers (9-3) - Roethlisberger had broken nose operated on during week, is expected to play here. Pitt (-5.5) hung on to beat Bengals 27-21 in Week 9 Monday nighter, their 13th win in last 18 series games, but Cincy is 3-2 SU in last five visits here. Steelers won last three games overall, allowing 9.7 ppg (two TDs on 33 drives); they?re 3-2 at home, winning by 6-18-32 points (2-2 as home favorite). Bengals haven?t won since baseball season, losing last nine games- they?re 1-3 as a road underdog, losing away games by 14-3-7-6-16 points. Dogs are 5-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this year. Last three Steeler games stayed under total. In last three games, Bengals allowed 79 2nd half points in 90:00. Not good.
Patriots (10-2) @ Bears (9-3) - Bears are 6-1 SU this year when an underdog. Short week and travel for NE squad off resounding 45-3 win in rivalry game Monday, their 4th win in row; Pats scored 40 ppg in those four wins (16 TDs/41 drives)- they were held to 14 in each of their losses. Chicago is 5-0 since its bye, allowing just 15.6 ppg (8 TDs on 50 drives); they?re getting balance on offense (123 RY/game) with only five giveaways during win streak. Teams are 8-1 vs spread the week after playing Detroit. Favorites are 3-5 vs spread the week after playing the Jets. Last six Patriot games went over total, as have five of their six road games. Patriots are 5-1 vs Chicago since 46-10 loss in Super Bowl XX.
Browns (5-7) @ Bills (2-10) - Dating back to ?09, Cleveland is 9-7 in last 16 games, 4-2 in last six; they won last three games in Lake Erie rivalry by 8-2-3 points, winning by unlikely 8-0/6-3 scores. Browns won last two weeks by combined total of 4 points; they?re +11 in turnovers over last six games (were -4 before that). Bills are 4-2-1 vs. spread in last seven games, with only one loss by more than 3 points in that stretch. Worst thing they did last week was KO Favre; Vikings played harder with Jackson at QB. Hillis could have big day against Buffalo defense that allowed 206-210 rushing yards in last two games. Bills were outscored 75-21 in first half of last three games. Home teams are 0-3 the week after playing Minnesota (were favored in all three). Six of last seven Cleveland games went over total.
Packers (9-3) @ Detroit (2-10) - Lions outgained Pack 431-261 in 28-26 loss at Lambeau (+14) in Week 4, but 13 penalties, three turnovers (+1) cost them 10th straight series loss (six of seven by 10+ points). Green Bay won last four visits here by 7-11-23-22 points. Pack won five of last six games, with last three wins all by 18+ points; they?re 3-3 on road, 2-2 as road favorite. Detroit is 9-3 vs spread this year, with six of 10 losses by 5 or less points; they?re 3-1 as home dog, losing home games by 3-3-16-4 points (beat Rams/Redskins), but they?ve been outscored 73-19 in second half of their last three games. Teams are just 2-6 week after playing 49ers. Eight of last nine Detroit games went over the total.
Falcons (10-2) @ Panthers (1-11) - Carolina lost its last six games (1-5 vs spread); they?re 1-3 as home underdog, losing last two home games by combined score of 71-16. Hard to win without a competent QB. Falcons won last six games, covered last four, but only one of the six wins was by more than 7 points; they?re 7-3 as favorite this year, 3-1 on road. Home side won last five series games; Falcons lost last two visits here. Four of last five series totals in Charlotte were 33 or less. Home teams are 1-7 vs. spread in NFC south divisional games; home dogs are 0-3. Six of last seven Falcon games went over total, as did last four Carolina games. Nine of Panthers? 11 losses are by 10+ points.
Buccaneers (7-5) @ Redskins (5-7) - Tampa Bay is 4-1 in games decided by 4 or less points, Redskins are 4-3 in games decided by 5 or less. Skins are -8 in turnovers last four games, with only three takeaways. Suspension of Haynesworth could hurt; they?re allowing 50 more rushing yards per game in games he sat out. Home side won five of last six series games, with all six decided by 6 or less points; Washington lost four of last five games, scoring 13 ppg in last three (3 TD?s on 35 drives). Bucs are 7-0 vs teams with .500 or worse records, 0-5 vs winning teams; they?re 4-2 on road, losing at Atlanta-Baltimore. NFC South road favorites are 2-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last three Redskin games stayed under the total.
Rams (6-6) @ Saints (9-3) - Defending champs are hot, winning last five games (4-1 vs. spread), scoring 33 ppg in last four games (15 TDs on last 41 drives); Saints are 4-2 at home, 2-3-1 as home faves, winning by 5-2-10-15 points at home (lost to Falcons/Browns). Rams held eight of 12 foes to 18 or less points; they?re 1-3 in other four games, losing by 38-3-17 points, but are also 4-1 as road dogs. Third week in row on road for St Louis team that is 0-2 against teams with winning records this year (17-18 at Bucs, 17-34 vs Falcons- they?re 2-1 vs teams with .500 records); Rams won last two weeks on road- they?ve only turned ball over twice in last five games (+6). NFC West road underdogs are 6-8 vs. spread in non-divisional games. Saints? last three games went over total.
Dolphins (6-6) @ Jets (9-3) - Jets got whacked 45-3 Monday night, ending 4-game win streak; they were held without TD in all three losses. Gang Green is 2-3 as home favorite, winning home tilts by 14-9-3-16 points (lost to Ravens/Packers). Dolphins are 5-1 on road, 4-1 as road dog; only road loss was 26-10 at Baltimore. Miami won three of last four series games, after losing previous eight; average total in their last three visits here, 51.7. Jets (+2) won first matchup this year 31-23 in Week 3, as Sanchez averaged 9.1 ypa and Jets converted 6-11 on 3rd down. Home sides are 2-5 vs. spread in AFC East divisional games. Nine of last eleven Jet games went over total, but Jets haven?t scored first half TD in either of their last two games.
Seahawks (6-6) @ 49ers (4-8) - Clueless Niners apparently fired their DB coach this week, and also changed QB?s again, as Alex Smith will start this game; they got crushed 31-6 (-3) at Seattle in season opener, converting just 1-15 on 3rd down, going 3/out on 6 of 11 drives. Seattle won five of last seven visits here, with three of last four totals at this site 34 or less. 49ers are 3-6 as favorite this year, 1-3 at home; they?re 2-3 at Candlestick, beating Oakland 17-9, Rams 23-20 in OT. Seahawks lost four of last six games; they?re 2-4 on road, 2-3 as road dog, losing away games by 17-17-30-15 points (won at Chicago/Arizona). Underdogs are 5-2-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games this season. Last five Seattle games went over the total.
Broncos (3-9) @ Cardinals (3-9) - Not lot to choose from here; Denver just fired its coach- they?ve lost seven of last eight games, are 5-17 in last 22 games overall. Arizona lost its last seven games, is starting Fordham rookie Skelton here; he has strong arm, but is very raw. Cardinals lost last four home games, allowing 30 ppg; they?ve gone 3/out on 18 of last 34 drives at home, and didn?t score TD in last two games (21 drives). Denver lost its last four road games by average of 12 points. NFC West home underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC West favorites are 9-7, 2-2 on road. Teams are 2-7 (4-2 vs spread as dogs) week after playing the Rams; favorites are 2-0-1 week after playing the Chiefs. Seven of last ten Arizona games went over the total.
Chiefs (8-4) @ Chargers (6-6) - Favorites are 0-7 vs spread week after playing Oakland. Chiefs won last three games, running ball for average of 204.7 ypg; they?re just 2-4 on road, winning 16-14 in Cleveland (+3), 42-24 in Seattle (-1.5) but they did beat San Diego 21-14 in season opener (+4.5), despite being outgained by 192 yards. KC ran punt back for TD in that game, their first series win in last six tries. KC lost five of last six visits here, with only one of losses by less than 7 points. Chargers had 4-game win streak snapped last week; they?re 4-2 at home, with all four wins by 8+ points (4-2 as HF). Underdogs are 6-2 vs. spread in AFC West divisional games. Last three Charger games stayed under total, but six of last eight Chief games went over. Chiefs' starting QB Cassel had an appendectomy Wednesday, most likely it was an emergency. Trust me-- from someone who has had one of these, he is not playing in San Diego Sunday. Backup Croyle is 0-9 as an NFL starter.
Eagles (8-4) @ Cowboys (4-8) - Seven of last eight Eagle games went over total, as did last nine Dallas games. Cowboys are 3-1 under Garrett (4-0 vs spread), losing to Saints by FG, so they?re playing with more energy since coaching change; Pokes were 3-0 vs Philly LY, winning by average score of 26-10. Home team won five of last six series games, as Eagles lost last three visits here. Philly is 4-1 since its bye, but banged-up defense allowed 55 points in last two games (8 TDs on 19 drives)- they?ve scored 26+ points in all five games since their bye (4-1). Road team is 10-0-1 vs spread in game involving team that played Colts the previous week; home teams are 1-4 SU, 0-4-1 vs spread week after playing Indy, allowing 32.6 ppg.
Ravens (8-4) @ Texans (5-7) - Baltimore has to be smarting after losing pivotal game to Steelers last week on sack/fumble with 3:14 left when they had 10-6 lead and the ball, but Ravens are 3-0 in game following a loss this year, winning by 7-3-24 points (1-2 as favorite in those games). Baltimore is just 3-3 on road, with five of six games decided by 5 or less points. Houston can score, putting up 20+ points in nine of 12 games, but they?re 3-3 at home, and allowed 30+ points in seven of last eight games (shut Titans out when 3rd-stringer Smith played QB). AFC South underdogs are 8-6 vs spread in non-division games, 0-2 at home. AFC North favorites are 6-11, 3-2 on road. Four of last five Houston games went over total. Ravens won all three series games, by 4-1-28 points.
