Week 16 Reads

Senor Capper

is feeling it
Channel Member
Nov 14, 2000
24,520
100
63
Vegas
www.SenorCapper.com
CHICAGO BEARS


Mike Martz has made a concerted effort to pound the running game between the tackles on first and second down, keeping struggling backup QB Caleb Hanie out of bad down and distance situations. That strategy didn?t work today, despite a steady diet of Marion Barber (the New Bartman) and Kahlil Bell carries.

Hanie got worse as the game progressed. His tipped pass INT in the end zone wasn?t a great throw, but it certainly wasn?t an awful one. I can?t say the same about his second INT (returned for a TD), where Hanie made an awful throw under duress. His second pick six was even uglier, a throw from a QB acting like he didn?t care very much.

Now Johnny Knox is hurt too, carted off the field on a stretcher. Devin Hester has a bad ankle, held without a catch. The Bears continue to lose valuable offensive weapons on a weekly basis. I?m not convinced they are capable of scoring enough points to win another game in 2011 ? a crushing finish after a 7-3 start. Might be a long, ugly offseason in Chi-town.



NEW YORK GIANTS


Is there a QB in the NFL this side of the big three (Brady, Brees and Rodgers) who is playing as well as Eli Manning these days? Despite playing behind a makeshift offensive line, with a banged up receiving corps, Manning has single handedly kept the G-men in playoff contention this year. His fourth quarter theatrics have been truly special, guiding the Giants to five come from behind wins.

But the Giants came out as flat as a pancake in this game, on both sides of the ball, putting Manning in a big hole before he could start to work his magic. What happened to Brandon Jacobs? The guy used to be an absolute monster running the football, but these days he?s tentative, doesn?t break tackles and can?t seem to hold onto the football ? a miserable trifecta. With Ahmad Bradshaw still ailing, this running game is not a strong complementary piece to the passing game right now.

At least this team plays with a sense of urgency trailing by multiple scores in the fourth quarter. New York switched to hurry up mode with more than 10 minutes remaining on the clock, the appropriate decision at the time. Of course, none of that mattered after Mario Manningham ran a wrong route in the end zone, leading to Manning?s third interception and dimming any comeback chances.



DETROIT LIONS


The Lions came within a yard of losing as double digit favorites last week despite a +6 turnover margin, something virtually unheard of in football at any level. The Lions lead the NFL in penalties over the last four weeks ? lots of mental miscues and the refs seem to be targeting Detroit as a ?dirty? team these days, never a good thing.

Meanwhile, this offense has declined since their explosive September. The running game is virtually non-existent these days, repeatedly unable to pick up first downs in short yardage situations. And for much of the Oakland game, QB Matthew Stafford, under heavy pressure, struggled to find open receivers downfield.

But with their season on the line late in the fourth quarter, Stafford and Calvin Johnson came through big time! Megatron had been silent for weeks ? only one TD catch and no 100 yard games since October. He made up for it in the fourth quarter.



WASHINGTON REDSKINS


Will Rex Grossman ever start another NFL game after this season? The sharp money says no. Grossman killed the ?Skins early momentum, following a dropped potential TD pass from the Giants with an ugly "chuck it up for grabs" interception on Washington?s first offensive play of the next series. That?s nine straight games with at least one INT for Sexy Rexy and a 12-16 TD-INT ratio for the full season.

I like the way the Redskins run the football these days, despite their offensive line injuries. Roy Helu and Evan Royster both get tough yards between the tackles with their high motor carries. Of course, with Grossman behind center, even favorable down and distance situations don?t ensure a positive turnover differential.

The defensive front is doing an excellent job blowing up the line of scrimmage, creating pressure on most passing downs. Despite all of those Grossman picks, the ?Skins have covered 4 of 5, an undervalued commodity down the stretch.



NEW ORLEANS SAINTS


The Saints can?t keep one feature running back healthy. They drafted Mark Ingram out of Alabama with their first round pick last year, but he hasn?t been healthy enough to play for the last month. If they play outdoors in January, an every down back and strong ground game is a must.

The passing game is virtually unstoppable in decent weather conditions, but a postseason trip to Green Bay or even San Francisco is not the same as winning in the Superdome or like Sunday in the Metrodome.

Drew Brees is really playing at a special level right now. He didn?t get sacked against Vikings, showing enough mobility in the pocket to escape Jared Allen?s pressure on more than one occasion. Even under duress, Brees? accuracy was truly top notch. That?s why he?s about to break Dan Marino?s all time most passing yards in a season record over the next two weeks.



SEATTLE SEAHAWKS


The Seahawks have the best defense in the NFL in one key statistical category ? first down runs. Opposing teams have gotten stuffed all year, giving the Seahawks defense great blitzing opportunities on later downs in passing situations. The Seahawks held Chicago?s two feature backs to less than 100 yards (under four per carry), despite the Bears looking to run at every opportunity.

Tavaris Jackson gave up an awful fumble in the end zone for a Bears TD, but he?s definitely looking like a legitimate NFL starting QB. Jackson makes quick decisions, tight throws into small windows and has the arm strength to chuck it up deep for big plays, like the Ben Obomanu 43 yard catch and run to set up the tying TD in the second half. If I?m Pete Carroll, I don?t go QB shopping in the offseason.

Whether Seattle makes a late season playoff push or not, keep your eye on this team in 2012. My hunch is that they might be pretty darn good.




MINNESOTA VIKINGS


The secondary is a disaster area. The Vikings lost four cornerbacks and three safeties to injury since the start of October. Asher Allen went out in the first half with another concussion issue, making a bad situation even worse. Minnesota?s back seven torched was by New Orleans.

The offense gained more than 90 yards and scored 60 points in Minnesota?s last two games heading into this contest. They lost both games. This week, the offense couldn?t muster up much, despite the return of Adrian Peterson to the lineup. Christian Ponder didn?t complete his fifth pass until after Brees threw his fifth TD pass.

At one point in the third quarter, Minnesota had been outgained by nearly 400 yards. Those are some ugly, ugly stats!
 

Senor Capper

is feeling it
Channel Member
Nov 14, 2000
24,520
100
63
Vegas
www.SenorCapper.com
Over the past few weeks we discussed many of the factors to consider when handicapping the remaining NFL regular season games, and also how to approach college basketball when recreational bettors are primarily using it for cross sports parlays.

Obviously that will change when football comes to an end, but for now the majority of volume being booked is on the NFL and CFB bowl games. We?ll look at a couple of teams that the market is offering at a discount and those that come with a premium attached.



TOP 5 "OVER-VALUED


NCAA FOOTBALL SEC CONFERENCE

The "power conference" in college football. Oddsmakers will definitely look to inflate the price for backing SEC teams throughout the NCAA football bowl season. I agree that two of the top three teams in CFB are from this conference but it?s not those teams that I?m talking about. Instead, the value comes from fading the conference?s mediocre teams that play in bowls. If you go back five years it appears the SEC is profitable during the post-season, but limit the sample size to the last 2 seasons and backing the league has been a losing proposition.



COWBOYS, GIANTS, EAGLES (NFL)

All three fall into the "must win" category over the next two weeks. When that?s the case oddsmakers know they need to inflate the price in order to protect the books knowing it?s almost always one-sided action. Inflating the price is done to entice wise guys and betting syndicates to come to take advantage of line value. Since the wild card doesn?t appear to be in the cards, the race is for the division title.



LIONS & FALCONS (NFL)

Both in the driver?s seat to make the playoffs as a wild card. The situation warrants a "must win" label. These teams are simply looking to WIN games and not accumulate style points. Many times they will look to protect a lead and milk the clock instead of keeping their foot on the gas.



SAINTS & 49ERS (NFL)

It?s obvious neither is going to catch the Packers for the top spot in the NFC playoffs. That means the road will go through Lambeau as long as they stay alive and playing for second place. Getting the 2 spot means a bye in the first round, a chance to get healthy and some extra time to prepare. Expect both to try hard to capture it. Unless the situation changes, these clubs won?t be resting starters and odds makers know bettors will be looking to back them.



TEXAS (NCAA basketball)

The Big 12 has been a constant power-house in CBB and that won?t change in 2011. Early on it appears the top teams may not be the same ones we?ve gotten used to over the last few seasons. Instead, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa St, Texas A&M, and Kansas St will give Kansas and Texas some intense competition. It usually takes a long time for bettors to change their minds about a team. Until Texas improves, they continue to remain over-valued.



TOP 5 "UNDER-VALUED"

MID-MAJORS & NON-BCS CONFERENCES

When it comes to bowl games, many times these teams will offer up the most betting value. Not only do they usually come at a discounted price, but they are facing an opponent that comes with a premium. You can?t overlook motivation.



BUCCANEERS, COLTS, RAMS, VIKINGS, & BROWNS (NFL)

Some of the worst teams in the 2011 season will offer up the most betting value over the final few games. They are offered at an even bigger discount than before and at times playing an opponent with an inflated price. These five have the NFL?s worst ATS margin. Playing spoiler against a rival or divisional foe, what appears to be a game where they have "nothing to play for" is anything but.



OVER INVOLVING ELIMINATED TEAMS (NFL Football)

It takes much more effort to play defense than offense. Games involving two teams with absolutely nothing to play for are good bets to go OVER the total. The value increases when not known as good offensive teams. These games tend to take on a "sandlot" feel comparable to an All-Star game where players don?t play any real defense.



UNDER INVOLVING MEANINGFUL GAMES

These clubs will come in extremely motivated and focused. That means some intense defense. Also, there is a lot more pressure on these teams to simply win the game and many times they?ll look to limit mistakes and possible turnovers by keeping it simple. This usually means much lower scoring down the stretch. Take advantage of the weather now don?t be afraid to bet UNDER even when the game involves a potent offense.



MINNESOTA (NCAA basketball)

The Golden Gophers are almost always being overlooked in the Big 10 since all of the attention has been on Illinois, Indiana, Michigan St, Wisconsin and Purdue for so many years. This is an 11-1 team that nobody is talking about. Even though the schedule will ultimately get tougher, the perception won?t force odds makers to make much of an adjustment. Currently 5-3-1 ATS, I expect that success to continue.
 

Senor Capper

is feeling it
Channel Member
Nov 14, 2000
24,520
100
63
Vegas
www.SenorCapper.com
Five outright underdog winners; Patriots hold strong for sharps


Las Vegas sports book were rocking Sunday with a buzz we haven?t seen since Week 1.

Part was almost every media outlet hyping the Patriots visit to Denver, which helped spur the largest single game handle of the season for many books. It also was all the wonderful upsets.

Although the bettors experienced a rare collective loss on the day, the price of admission was almost worth it. The early games gave us five outright underdog winners, including the Packers 19-14 loss at KC as 14-point underdogs and the winless Colts taking down Tennessee.

While small money was laying whatever spread there was on Green Bay, sharp money came in strong Sunday morning on the Chiefs dropping the line to -11 by kickoff.

Just last week Lucky?s sports books had taken down their odds asking if the Packers would go undefeated because it looked too inevitable with only three games remaining. Their final price on the proposition was YES, they would go undefeated -140.

Between the Packers loss and the Patriots impressive 41-23 win at Denver, the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book immediately dropped its Super Bowl line from NFC -4? to -3?. The Packers remain 9-5 favorites to win the Super Bowl, but the Patriots were dropped down to 4-1.

New England was also lowered to win the AFC at 7-5 favorite due to being two steps closer to securing home field advantage. The Ravens and Texans both came into Week 15 at 10-3 and were contending for home field.

For Baltimore, not getting home field will be a huge disadvantage for them. Their loss to San Diego as 2?-point favorites was their fourth on the road. Losing at San Diego in December where Philip Rivers is now 23-2 as a starter in understandable, but it adds to the bad losses at Jacksonville, Seattle and Tennessee.

The Texans were a popular bet Sunday with the public laying any number from the opener of -7 to -6?. Sharp money started floating in Friday on the Panthers and pushed the game down to -5? by kickoff. It was a tough spot for rookie T.J. Yates to bounce back off a huge emotional win last week in Cincinnati. The Texans could be in trouble and more questions will surface why they didn?t go after Orton when Matt Schaub went down.

The Patriots game went as planned by the public and sharps. Small money came in at a 3-to-2 ratio on the Pats while large money pushed the line from 5 to -7? at most books. Cantor Gaming sports books were way ahead of the curve on the game with its -9? (+105) line.

For the first time all season we saw Tim Tebow and the Broncos set the early fast pace and take an early 17-6 lead behind 167 yards of rushing in the first quarter. However, things quickly turned as three critical second quarter turnovers allowed the Patriots to run off 27 unanswered points.

Missing from the game was the Broncos pass rush that has pestered opposing quarterbacks all season. It was almost as if coach John Fox was giving Tom Brady too much respect by keeping defenders back and not blitzing as much as we have seen throughout Denver games.

The Broncos defense was also severely weakened by not having Brian Dawkins patrol the outfield. Dawkins replacement, rookie Rahim Moore, made Tony Lilly from the Broncos past look like a good tackler.

Despite the loss, most will agree that Tebow played very well and just got outgunned by one of the league?s all-time best.

The Broncos (8-6) aren?t clear in the AFC West just yet. We?ve seen the Chargers (7-7) catch them from way behind before and they?re coming on strong again, just one game behind. The Raiders (7-7) are also in the hunt despite losing three games in a row.

The winner of the AFC West will be a No. 4 seed in the playoffs with a home game likely against the Ravens or Steelers, which isn?t going to be easy. With so much up in the air, odds to win the AFC have the Broncos 13-1, Chargers 10-1 and Raiders 75-1. Should the Chargers get in, their offense provides more possibilities for running the playoff table, especially if they come in with a five game winning streak.

The NFC still has a nice battle going with the Eagles still alive and well, as crazy as that sounds. It was just two weeks ago where the Eagles were 500-1 to win the NFC. After a few Giants and Cowboys losses, they are down to 15-1 while the Cowboys are 10-1.

For the Eagles to get in, it?s pretty simple. They need to beat the Cowboys and have the Jets beat the Giants this week. In Week 17, they?ll have to beat the Redskins and have the Giants beat the Cowboys. That would make all three teams 8-8 with the Eagles holding a 5-1 division record.

Crazier things have happened. It was just two months ago we witnessed the Cardinals win the World Series when the sports books adjusted them to 1,000-to-1 midway through September and five games out.

For the week, favorites went 7-7-1 ATS making the season total 106-109-5.
 

Senor Capper

is feeling it
Channel Member
Nov 14, 2000
24,520
100
63
Vegas
www.SenorCapper.com
Tebow train derails


The Colts win, the Packers lose and both the Jets and Giants took the day off.

We always speak of the numbers being as solid as one can make them at this time of the season and it is resonating across the board. There are always exceptions like Denver.

The popular Tebow Train and that loyal following might have been rooting with their voices. However, the vast majority rooted for their wallet as this game climbed well over a touchdown and the Pats gave their supporters some extra money for Christmas gifts.

The volatility in making and betting into numbers will be well tested this NBA season. A lot of the old angles and incorporating the new ones will make numbers move at a rapid rate until at least early February.

? We all know of the betting against the team with the fourth game in five days.

? We have all been exposed into setting the number with provision as the team just played a night game and must fly into Denver with the thin air factor.

? We know about playing overtime and flying east maybe losing a time zone or two.

Now we have seen a schedule putting us in a place we have never been. Teams playing nine games in 12 nights and back to backs piling up as soon as the first jump ball on Christmas Day.

Adjustments by the books will only be a well educated guess. In fairness, when you reach for your "cake" early on, you will be making an educated guess. The shorter the season, unique situations and coaching decisions on older stars will make the lines volatile.

Look for numbers in certain spots to fly. Handle will also be boosted by this phenomenon. When you finally think you?ve got this racket kind of figured out you get something else to perpetuate on why we keep coming back.
 

Hooks

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 14, 2000
3,058
13
0
VEGAS
Lanny, thanks for the info bro. Some interesting things in there. Kick some ass this week .:toast:
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top