Week 17, A Great Week For Upsets

[pug]

Week 17 is a great week to bet on moneyline dogs. Bettors often fail to take the resting of players and tems' motivation into consideration in their capping of this week.

Here is a Christmas present that can be unwrapped on Sunday:

Eagles moneyline

Here is why this play will hit. Vick is back under center and will be motivated to play well in order to get a contract after the season. The Giants have played like garbage in losing the last two important games against Atlanta and Baltimore. They flat out stink right now and their mindset is not that of a playoff team. For example, Umenyiora was just quoted as saying that he won't be back next year with Giants. This is not what you want to hear with the playoffs on the line. Where is the talk about advancing in the playoffs? The Giants know that they are finished. Also, the Giants will be eliminated with a Bears win. Both teams play at 1:00 on sunday. I expect Chicago to blow out Detroit. The Giants will be scoreboard watching and when they see Chicago up by 20+ at halftime, they will give up in the 2nd half. I expect Philly to not only win, but it won't be close. I am also looking at these possible dogs:

TB (love this one, but no line yet)
Jax
Bal
Cle
Min

I think a TB/Phi money line parlay is a STRONG play and should pay quite a bit.

Merry Christmas everyone.

 

[Hashish]

I don't know how anyone could in good conscience put money down on this Tampa team after last week. Seems to me they have completely lost the plot.

 

[pug]

I would normally agree, but Atlanta will rest everyone and start McCown. TB will at least have Freeman making an effort. Week 17 is a whole different ball game then weeks 1-16. TB wins this one.

 

[Hashish]

I would normally agree, but Atlanta will rest everyone and start McCown. TB will at least have Freeman making an effort. Week 17 is a whole different ball game then weeks 1-16. TB wins this one.

Yeah, I do think it is probably a good bet. I just can't bet on a team that seems to be in as much disarray as the Bucs are. They may be playing against a lot of backups, but they are still NFL players.

Backups Playing Hard > Starters Mailing It In

Good luck this week, pug.

 

[Dead Money]

gotta be a better bet than Tampa

gotta be a better bet than Tampa

obviously something very dysfunctional going on losing last 3....St Louis? come on....at home?:0008

"never ask a bad team to win for you" comes to mind.

gluck

 

[elmer fudd]

"never ask a bad team to win for you" comes to mind.
words to wager by!!!

 

[Old School]

01/01/12
DOGS last year.... last week full Sunday were 4-12 straight up..

 

[Old School]

might want to re-think the angle..

2010 season last week ..

favs won out-right..

13 of 16

 

[Trentwalker]

Although the premise needs to be explored more as to whether dogs win in week 17, quoting 2010 and 2011 has little impact on the overall trend. This is the definition of gambler's fallacy.

 

[Old School]

don't know how much more trend one would need in the new era of football..

numbers from folklore run the football would seem pretty useless to me ..

the nfl will set a record for pass attempts in a single season..

seems to me any colalation between teams and outcome trends would have to be factoedr with the fact

again..

this ain't our granddaddy football anymore.



could be wrong as rain..

but 25 straightup wins by favs out of 32 games in back to back[2010 and 2011 seasons] week#17 tells me I aint asking to many dogs to bark and pad my bankroll

 

[Old School]

2009 season..
week #17
favs went 14-2 straightup

39-9 favs straightup overs the last 3 seasons of week#17 games..

may mean absolutely nothing when applied to true math probability of outcome..

can only take from these numbers what I perceive to be a notion that fav teams have done real well on the last day of the regular season over the last 3 years..

good luck to all..

I like to see everyone win..

 

[Old School]

2008 season week#17

13-3

favs straightup

52-12 over 4 years [2008-20111]

 

[Old School]

12/30/2007

week#17

favs straightup

13-3

65-15 over 5 years [2007-20111]


for what it worth..

always trying help..

 

[yanno]

Holy Shit!!!

Ml parlays, anyone? opcorn2

Thanx for the input, Ol' School. :0008

:0002

 

[Old School]

Holy Shit!!!

Ml parlays, anyone? opcorn2

Thanx for the input, Ol' School. :0008

:0002

2012..

week #17

favs straightup have gone..................

11-4

76-19 over last 6 seasons..
[week#17 favored team straightup]

with one game remaing

 

[Old School]

which makes Hashish moneyline dog pick of Indy today even sharper..

hell of a call

 

[Old School]

2012..

week #17

favs straightup went

12-4

77-19 over last 6 seasons..
[week#17 favored team straightup]


96 games...

the fav in week 17 won 77 of those games straightup.

.802

something to think about when week17 comes around 2013 regular season..

 

[Hashish]

Great work on posting those records, Old School! And thanks for the kind words. Have a wonderful and prosperous new year!