Week 17 Over/Under data anyone?

[GM]

Bouncing around a theory here...

With so many games being meaningless in Week 17, and teams giving their starters the day off etc., for some reason the perception ~seems~ to be that scoring will go down. Not sure why that is, since in my opinion I'd see it just as likely to go up with the defensive players going thru the motions too, just wanting to get the season over with.

So, I did a little research, and came up with the following....

1999 season:
Avg pts per game, Weeks 1-16 = 41.3
Avg pts per game, Week 17 = 46.9

2000 season:
Avg pts per game, Weeks 1-16 = 41.1
Avg pts per game, Week 17 = 44.5

2001 season:
Avg pts per game, Weeks 1-16 = 40.5
Avg pts per game, Week 17 = ???

These are the only years I have data for, and admittedly it's a pretty small sample size and might not mean anything.

Now, I've noticed this week that EVERY single game has had it's total go down, or at the very worst stay on, the number it opened at. Pretty unusual. I'm trying to figure out why that would be. I mean, to me it seems worthwhile to take a shot at a few Overs, especially in the 6 or 7 games that mean absolutely nothing this weekend. There are some low totals on the board this week too. Ten games with a total of 38 or lower?? Can't recall seeing that before.

Any opinions, or anyone with more data?

Thanks,
GM

[This message has been edited by GM (edited 01-04-2002).]

 

[dr. freeze]

this trend goes with reason.....thanks for the research.....might be especially valid this Sunday with all playoff spots decided.....

 

[MrChristo]

The dropping totals may have a bit to do with the weather and it's perceived effects.

I like a couple of overs myself...

GB/NYG..in a Giants game, bound to be turnover pts.
Tenn/Cinci..Cinci might want to be 'testing' QB's and Tenn at home is a good over anyway.

Good research GM.

 

[count zero]

Overs in the last week of the season have gone 131-123 51.6% since 1983. Not great, but significantly better than the overall long-term percentage for the over of about 49%.

 

[GM]

Count Zero - Thanks for the stats. I found only a slight edge to the Week 17 Over in the 2 years I had the data for as well, even though the scoring averages were higher. However, the posted totals on those games were adjusted a bit higher in those years. This year we've got a bunch of low totals which is the part that really perplexes me. And even the games that will be played in domes have had their totals drop, so it can't just be the threat of bad weather. Hmmm. (And bad weather does not necessarily mean Under anyways, but that's a whole new topic....)

I've got my personal numbers pointing to Over in a number of games: Den/Indy, Cinci/Tenn, Dal/Det, KC/Sea, and Minn/Balt (not all of those games are meaningless, but that's where I see the strongest Over possibilities so far).

I find Week 17 to be one of the trickiest weeks of the whole year to handicap because there is so much more that is unknown....how much will the stars play, what is the player's motivation (some players playing out the string, or playing to reach personal goals/bonus levels in their contracts; in other cases players just trying to make sure they keep their job next year, so they give it extra effort etc). So I treat this week differently than the other weeks, and I usually go pretty light on my betting. But if there's an edge to be found...let's find it!

 

[barfly]

Originally posted by dr. freeze:
this trend goes with reason.....thanks for the research.....might be especially valid this Sunday with all playoff spots decided.....

Last I checked, all the playoff spots are NOT decided yet.

Sometimes I wonder if people even think about what they're posting or bother to even check their facts.


------------------
Make mine a Double!,
Barfly

 

[dr. freeze]

nice shot.....pretty much everyone knows all spots are not decided....meant to say "all these spots"....NFC is sewed up and most of AFC is too...much less at stake than normal and main point of post was that...but thanks for referring to the fact that you wonder if I ever bother to check my facts....good grief...very nice subtle insult barfly