After a very solid 8-3-1 week i'm looking towards another profitable week 17 (I hope!). Here's what I have so far, and some short writeups:
Detroit +17
I jumped on this one shortly after the line went up. Theres a VERY good chance that this game will be meaningless. The Steelers clinch a spot if San Diego, a 10.5 point favorite as of right now, can beat Denver. Even if they don't, there's a ton of point value here. Getting 17 in a game with an over/under of 35.5 just screams backdoor at worst. This game could be my first middle attempt in a long time; if pitt clinches and the line dives, I may try to middle if it goes to Pitt -9.5 or lower.
Green Bay -3
Again, I got on this one earlier. Seattle is packing it in for the playoffs, and I just don't see Seneca Wallace doing much against an improved D. Favre should look good against a D resting starters. This just looks like a great spot for Green Bay to secure their 4th win with ease.
Jacksonville -3.5
Matt Mauck is officially starting for the Titans. Leftwich is starting and playing most of the game. Del Rio said he will NOT be resting starters as his team has alot to work on. Jump on this line quick before the Titans QB change bumps it up to 5.5.
Oakland/G-Men UNDER 41.5
JUMP ON THIS FAST!!!! Everything points to the under here. Shockey and Jordan are out, and Oakland can't score to save their lives. Now factor in this forecast for saturday:
"Rain and a few thunderstorms in the morning, then variable clouds with still a chance of showers during the afternoon. Windy. High near 60F. Winds SW at 20 to 30 mph. Rainfall may reach one inch. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph."
This O/U will drop to 37.5/38 at LEAST before gametime.
Baltimore -3
Yes this is a risky pick, Cleveland can be tough at home but I see Baltimore coming through with a nice game to finally get a road victory. Boller has been throwing well, and is still playing for a job. This cleveland D looked uninterested and was SHREDDED last week by Pitt's uncharacteristic air raid. Here's hoping Boller remains the guy we've seen the past 2 weeks!
Jets ML
This is a case where I just have to revert back to old, winning customs. I'm going against the public here. Sportsbook.com reports 96% of public money on Buffalo. 96%. The public is looking at this game saying "gee golly, they beat cinci pretty bad last week and all they gotta do is cover a point this week against the JETS? wow this is gonna be easy." Well I think it's going to be pretty easy.....for the Jets here. the line hasn't budged, so there's something the books aren't (and won't) tell us. Also never forget little things.....like a Jet crowd that will be VERY happy to get its booze back, and the Vinny Testaverde factor in the 4th quarter. Yes I know he's probably a great grandpa, but he's playing for pride and the Jets are a different team with him in. Play the Jests.
TEASER G-Men pick'em/cowboys -5.5
Jumped on this one early. Oakland can't score, and the G-men are playing for a dvision title. I'm not fully confident in them covering the big number, but they WILL win this game. The cowboys will be facing a joke of a team, the Rams. The Rams haven't covered a road number all year if my calculations are correct. Parcells will have his boys pumped and ready to go, coming home from a very impressive win at Carolina. I look for the boys to roll, but i'll be safe and take my 5.5 to the bank.
SMALL MONEYLINE PLAY Arizona +241
Just couldn't resist this one. Colts were 0-5 in the preseason, and with their loss last week that goes to 0-6 in games they don't care about. Arizona isn't completely inept and should be able to move the ball in the air and score against a backup D. I don't feel confident with a regular play on Arizona anymore, but I'll take the small risk and throw a little over a third of a unit on it.
Good luck this week guys, and please let me know what you think!!!
Detroit +17
I jumped on this one shortly after the line went up. Theres a VERY good chance that this game will be meaningless. The Steelers clinch a spot if San Diego, a 10.5 point favorite as of right now, can beat Denver. Even if they don't, there's a ton of point value here. Getting 17 in a game with an over/under of 35.5 just screams backdoor at worst. This game could be my first middle attempt in a long time; if pitt clinches and the line dives, I may try to middle if it goes to Pitt -9.5 or lower.
Green Bay -3
Again, I got on this one earlier. Seattle is packing it in for the playoffs, and I just don't see Seneca Wallace doing much against an improved D. Favre should look good against a D resting starters. This just looks like a great spot for Green Bay to secure their 4th win with ease.
Jacksonville -3.5
Matt Mauck is officially starting for the Titans. Leftwich is starting and playing most of the game. Del Rio said he will NOT be resting starters as his team has alot to work on. Jump on this line quick before the Titans QB change bumps it up to 5.5.
Oakland/G-Men UNDER 41.5
JUMP ON THIS FAST!!!! Everything points to the under here. Shockey and Jordan are out, and Oakland can't score to save their lives. Now factor in this forecast for saturday:
"Rain and a few thunderstorms in the morning, then variable clouds with still a chance of showers during the afternoon. Windy. High near 60F. Winds SW at 20 to 30 mph. Rainfall may reach one inch. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph."
This O/U will drop to 37.5/38 at LEAST before gametime.
Baltimore -3
Yes this is a risky pick, Cleveland can be tough at home but I see Baltimore coming through with a nice game to finally get a road victory. Boller has been throwing well, and is still playing for a job. This cleveland D looked uninterested and was SHREDDED last week by Pitt's uncharacteristic air raid. Here's hoping Boller remains the guy we've seen the past 2 weeks!
Jets ML
This is a case where I just have to revert back to old, winning customs. I'm going against the public here. Sportsbook.com reports 96% of public money on Buffalo. 96%. The public is looking at this game saying "gee golly, they beat cinci pretty bad last week and all they gotta do is cover a point this week against the JETS? wow this is gonna be easy." Well I think it's going to be pretty easy.....for the Jets here. the line hasn't budged, so there's something the books aren't (and won't) tell us. Also never forget little things.....like a Jet crowd that will be VERY happy to get its booze back, and the Vinny Testaverde factor in the 4th quarter. Yes I know he's probably a great grandpa, but he's playing for pride and the Jets are a different team with him in. Play the Jests.
TEASER G-Men pick'em/cowboys -5.5
Jumped on this one early. Oakland can't score, and the G-men are playing for a dvision title. I'm not fully confident in them covering the big number, but they WILL win this game. The cowboys will be facing a joke of a team, the Rams. The Rams haven't covered a road number all year if my calculations are correct. Parcells will have his boys pumped and ready to go, coming home from a very impressive win at Carolina. I look for the boys to roll, but i'll be safe and take my 5.5 to the bank.
SMALL MONEYLINE PLAY Arizona +241
Just couldn't resist this one. Colts were 0-5 in the preseason, and with their loss last week that goes to 0-6 in games they don't care about. Arizona isn't completely inept and should be able to move the ball in the air and score against a backup D. I don't feel confident with a regular play on Arizona anymore, but I'll take the small risk and throw a little over a third of a unit on it.
Good luck this week guys, and please let me know what you think!!!
