INSIDER ANGLES
NFL Trends & Angles - Week 2
Opening Week of the 2013 season in now in the books, and unlike past years, and the underdogs had a slight edge ATS despite favorites going 12-4 straight up, as the dogs ended up 8-7-1 vs. the number. Also there was absolutely no Week 1 edge in totals either way, with the 'over' and 'under' splitting 8-8.
Those results aside, contrarian angles seem to work best in September when lines are the softest because bettors often over-react to results of the previous week, perhaps especially in this Week 2, as it is still early enough where no one knows for certain just how good or bad most teams are.
Also you will notice that we have sections below for Good/Bad Team trends, and as a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively. Good Teams are defined as teams that won at least 10 of their last 16 games and Bad Teams are ones that lost at last 10 of their last 16 games.
Thus, now that we are one game into this 2013 season, the Good/Bad parameters are no longer based on a quick lookup of 2012 records like they were last week since they are based on a rolling set of each team's last 16 games, meaning that this weeks qualifiers are based on their records of the last 15 games of 2012 plus the results last week.
All records presented are for the last 13 years since the 2000 season, and as we will continue to do throughout this month, all of this week's records are for September games only.
All Teams - General Angles
Play against September home favorites coming off a straight up loss (87-55-10, 61.3% ATS): Many times, teams that are favored following a loss are favored more because of reputation than because of performance on the field, and that makes the chalk vulnerable in these situations. Of course there will be situations where these teams bounce back well, but as you can see by the September record, the teams have been overvalued much more often than not. Qualifiers: St. Louis +7 at Atlanta, Cleveland +6.5 at Baltimore, Washington +7.5 at Green Bay, Jacksonville +5.5 at Oakland and Pittsburgh +7 at Cincinnati (Monday).
Play on September conference underdogs that were favored in their last game (88-55-8, 61.5% ATS): Novice bettors almost always prefer to bet favorites, and in their minds, when they see a team is an underdog after being favored the prior week, their general feeling is that either the team was overrated to begin the year or the team is now going up against a superior team. Qualifiers: Cleveland +6.5, San Francisco +3, St. Louis +7, Tampa Bay +3, Washington +7.5 and Pittsburgh +7 (Monday).
Play against September home favorites coming off a road game (130-90-13, 59.1% ATS): Bettors often assume that home favorites that were on the road the prior week will automatically improve solely because of now having home field. While that does happen from time to time, this record suggests that home field is actually being overcompensated for in the betting line. Qualifiers: N.Y. Jets +11.5 (Thursday), St. Louis +7, Cleveland +6.5, Washington +7.5, Tennessee +9.5, Dallas +3, Jacksonville +5.5, San Diego +7, San Francisco +3, Pittsburgh +7 (Monday).
Good Teams - At Least 10 Wins in the Last 16 Games
Play against Good Teams as September road underdogs (46-30-7, 60.5% ATS): Sometimes bettors can get too stuck on the previous season and they automatically flock to teams coming off of double-digit-win seasons when they turn up as underdogs early the following year. Oddsmakers are quite aware of this, so when those previous winners turn up as underdogs early, there is usually a good reason for it. Qualifier: Seattle -3.
Play the 'over' when Good Teams play September division games (76-54-3, 60.2%): Just like any other sport, NFL teams are more familiar with division opponents that any other teams on their schedule, and that is not to mention that division games are the most important ones. Truly good teams know how to take advantage of familiar defenses and they usually get up for these games, often resulting in higher scoring, especially when the familiar opponents try to keep pace. Qualifying 'overs': N.Y. Jets at New England (Thursday), Cleveland at Baltimore, Minnesota at Chicago, Tennessee at Houston and San Francisco at Seattle.
Play the 'over' when Good Teams are favored over Bad Teams during September (62-42-1, 59.6%): This is a often a case of a favorite being so much better then its opponent that it can name the score, but there are also occasions where the inferior team gets up for these games early in the year while they still have playoff aspirations just like everybody else. Both of these circumstances usually produce higher scoring games. Qualifying 'overs': N.Y. Jets at New England (Thursday) and Cleveland at Baltimore.
Bad Teams - At Least 10 Losses in the Last 16 Games
Play on Bad Teams as September road underdogs (110-73-10, 60.1% ATS): Perception is a wonderful thing, and novice bettors almost always shy away from teams that looked awful the previous year when they are road underdogs early on the following season. Thus, the books can pad the lines of these games a bit, inherently giving value to the dirty dogs. This is also a fantastic winning percentage for this size of a sampling. Qualifiers: N.Y. Jets +11.5 (Thursday), Cleveland +6.5, Jacksonville +5.5 and San Diego +7.
Play against Bad Teams as September conference favorites (60-35-3, 63.2% ATS): Now when teams that were bad last year are suddenly thrust into the favorite role vs. somewhat familiar conference opponents, it is a totally different mindset. These are teams usually not accustomed to being favored and they often wilt when being expected to win. Qualifiers: Arizona +1? and Jacksonville +5.5.
Play on the underdog when two Bad Teams face each other in September (49-24-4, 67.1% ATS): This has always been one of our favorite angles and it goes back to the theory we just mentioned in the previous trend, that being that bad teams that are suddenly expected to win often crack. Meanwhile, the underdogs often feel disrespected by being underdogs vs. such weak opponents, and they usually use that for inspiration. Qualifiers: Arizona +1?, Jacksonville +5.5 and San Diego +7.
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Hot Bets and Moving Odds
For veteran bettors, Week 1 probably went just as expected. There were some big lines on the board and the underdogs held their own. Four outright underdogs won straight up and dogs finished 8-7-1 overall. Week 2?s lines have come down a bit across the Sports Interaction board so let?s dig in.
All odds current as of noon ET, Sept. 12.
Key Numbers
Week 2?s board features a ton of field goal and touchdown lines. Unlike last week, where the lines were all over the place, this time we have four pointspreads of seven points and three pointspreads of three points. New England is the big favorite at -11 at home to the New York Jets Thursday and Arizona is the slightest favorite at -1.5 at home to the Detroit Lions.
Patriot Games
Last week, the New England Patriots were big favorites but couldn?t cover in a tight win over Buffalo. They opened as 13-point favorites in Week 2 against the Jets, but that line is dropping steadily as the club works on a short week with injury concerns. Shane Vereen is out for a while and Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are very, very doubtful. When the Pats were 12.5-point favorites, 70 percent of Sports Interaction?s tickets were coming in on New England, but that?s changed as the game nears. Now as New England sits as an 11-point favorite, just 56 percent of the action is coming in on the Pats.
More Odds on the Move
The Baltimore Ravens opened as 6.5-point favorites at home to Cleveland but it looks as though the betting public is a bit concerned after that spanking they took from Denver. The Ravens have moved from -6.5 to -6.
It?s hard to get a read on the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Oakland Raiders. Are the Jags really as bad as they showed in last week?s blowout loss? Are the Raiders better than expected? These are questions bettors are asking themselves as this line bounces between Oakland -6 and -5.5. Don?t be surprised if this line flutters right up until kickoff.
Talking Totals
If you can?t guess the two 50-plus totals on the board this week, you haven?t done your homework. The Philadelphia Eagles blazed through their win over Washington last week only to hear coach Chip Kelly say their no-huddle wasn?t fast enough. Philly is a 9.5-point favorite hosting San Diego and oddsmakers have a 55-point total posted. If Kelly has it his way, over bettors might be cashing their tickets by halftime.
Meanwhile, after throwing seven touchdowns last week, Peyton Manning and his Broncos see another 55-point total when they visit Eli and the Giants. Denver is a 4.5-point favorite. Dating back to last year, the over has gone 4-0-1 in Denver?s last five games.
Who?s Hot, Who?s Not
There is a lot of weird stuff going on with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Quarterback Josh Freeman was stripped of his captaincy before the season began and missed the team photo, leading to a players-only meeting in Week 1. This week the Bucs host the Saints as 3.5-point underdogs and 94 percent of the action is coming in on New Orleans.
Baltimore bettors expect the defending champs to bounce back in a big way. The Ravens are seeing 93 percent of the action as 6-point favorites against Cleveland.
After surviving a scare in Week 1, the public is all over the Colts to cover the field goal spread as they host the Miami Dolphins. Right now, just 11 percent of bettors are siding with Miami.
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NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches Week 2
Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 2:
San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, 55)
Chargers? cross-country trip vs. Eagles? frantic pace
Both of these teams are playing on a short week, having headlined the Monday doubleheader. But only one ? San Diego ? has to fly coast to coast in Week 2. The Chargers gassed out against the Texans in Week 1, giving up 24 points in the second half including 17 in the fourth quarter, and now face Chip Kelly?s rapid-fire attack.
New San Diego head coach Mike McCoy is trying to instill a similar plan of attack in his team this season, looking to push the tempo. That may be the Bolts? worst enemy in Philadelphia. Getting into a track meet with the Eagles on a short week while traveling cross-country could leave little in the tank for the Chargers ? again - come the fourth quarter.
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5)
Cowboys? rejuvenated front seven vs. Chiefs? conservative attack
Dallas? new 4-3 defense looked like it had been playing that scheme for years against the Giants Sunday night, picking off three passes and forcing three lost fumbles. Those six takeaways are a huge contrast to last season. The pass rush also looked good, getting to Eli Manning three times. The Cowboys' only weakness was to the big play, allowing New York to connect on long third-down conversions and strike for a 70-yard TD pass before the half.
Dallas defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin may not have to worry as much about the long bomb this week. The Chiefs offense dinked-and-dumped its way to 28 points versus Jacksonville Sunday, averaging only five yards per pass and topping out on a 26-yard completion from QB Alex Smith. Kansas City?s new head coach Andy Reid knows the Cowboys well, but not this revamped defense that is wreaking havoc between the chains.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 47)
Saints? downfield weapons vs. Bucs? poor pass D and rusty Revis
Tampa Bay ranked last versus the pass in 2012 and was supposed to have plugged those holes with the addition of CB Darrelle Revis. However, Revis was a step behind in his first NFL game since last fall and the Bucs allowed Jets rookie QB Geno Smith to complete over 63 percent of his passes and connect for two TDs.
Enter Drew Brees, who has been the top gunslinger in the NFL the past five seasons. He put up 357 yards through the air and two touchdowns in a win over Atlanta, and went for 307 yards and four TDs in a 41-0 ass-waxing of Tampa Bay last season. Revis can only cover one guy. Brees has more than enough weapons to choose from, with six players targeted four or more times in Week 1.
Denver Broncos at New York Giants (+4.5, 55)
Broncos? punishing pace vs. Giants? dinged-up defense
The New York defense limps back home after a tough loss in Dallas Sunday night. The Giants have a laundry list of ailments, including CB Prince Amukamara, LB Dan Connor, and DE Jason Pierre-Paul, who obviously wasn?t 100 percent after offseason back surgery. Those injuries will be exploited even more when Peyton Manning puts his offensive pedal to the metel.
The Broncos? no-huddle attack could strand those hobbled defenders on the field Sunday. They ran 68 plays during the Thursday?s night blowout over the Ravens and boasted the third-fastest pace in the NFL last year. Not only that, New York?s lack of a running game will have the Giants struggling to control the clock. And winning the time of possession battle is key when trying to slow down Manning. If he?s not on the field, he can?t hurt you. Expect to see more of one brother than the other in ?The Manning Bowl?.
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