Week 2 plays

[Cortez]

Season Total: 6-3-1 (+2.47u)

Couple early ones for next week:

BAL -2.5 (1.5u)

Like this one a lot. One of my favorite situations is when a team has off field drama (of course there are exceptions). Drama usually doesn't mean jack squat come game time. If anything this should bring the Ravens players closer together and once they're on the field all that other nonsense goes out the window and they're just playing football. Even without the drama I like Baltimore in this situation. With the drama I like them even more.

NE -3.0 - CANCELLED

Without last weeks games NE would be favoured by a TD here. Always scary taking a short road favorite, but I still think the value lies with the Pats.

More to come later...

 

[Cortez]

Added these:

CIN -5.0
HOU -3.0
SEA -5.5

Once again I'm not thrilled about taking this many favorites, but it worked out for me last weekend so I'm hoping for a similar result in week 2. I've got some nice dogs locked and loaded though, just not quite ready to fire...

I might add more on Seattle before game time, really like this spot for them... they've got extra long rest, and even though they're away from the 12th man, they're staying on the west coast. SD struggled against Zona's D, which is very good this year, but they're not even close to Seattle's. SD will have problems moving the ball all day long, and Seattle will get theirs. This one should be a blowout. Might look at the under too.

 

[Cortez]

Adding:

BAL -2.5 (making it a 1.5u play)
CAR -3.0

Distractions shmishmactions! Making Ravens my first 1.5u play of the year.

DET got off to a great start week 1, and now getting 80% of bets on a short week on the road!? Get outta here! Actually sold a half point here to get +105.

Subtracting:

NE -3.0

On second and third thought I think this one stinks and I want out. NE getting 80% of bets so far and line isn't budging. I think their odds actually got a tad worse. Minny has some legitimate weapons and if they can shut down the Gronk they have a decent shot to win outright. Gonna watch this one from the sidelines.

 

[R8RNATION]

I am curious as to why you are confident about Houston -3

Since when did Houston become legitimate? They beat an average Redskins team in the ugliest way possible and now they are road favourites? They shouldn't be road favourites against anyone.

Yes, the Raiders did not play well at all against New York, but this was a rookie QB, making his first ever start, on the road, against a pretty good Jets team. (If you want to talk value, think about the Jets +8)

Raiders beast Houston last year IN Houston, and also beat them two years ago. What do you see that I don't?

 

[Cortez]

I am curious as to why you are confident about Houston -3

Since when did Houston become legitimate? They beat an average Redskins team in the ugliest way possible and now they are road favourites? They shouldn't be road favourites against anyone.

Yes, the Raiders did not play well at all against New York, but this was a rookie QB, making his first ever start, on the road, against a pretty good Jets team. (If you want to talk value, think about the Jets +8)

Raiders beast Houston last year IN Houston, and also beat them two years ago. What do you see that I don't?

Fair question. Loads of people were picking Pittsburgh as the rebound team of the year but for me it's Houston. A lot of it has to do with confidence and chemistry. Last year they won their first 2 games, then lost 4 of their next 8 by a FG or less. That does a number on your confidence and it's easy to spiral downward after that. I don't think the their 2-14 record was indicative of the talent they had, and still have. Now they have a new head coach, quarterback and first pick overall. I realize Fitzpatrick isn't going to be their savior, and Clowney is out for a few weeks, but this team still has a load of talent and is full of optimism right now. Their win over Washington wasn't terribly convincing, but they're finally off the schnide and think their stock will only go up from here. I like them to surprise a lot of people this year.

Raiders on the other hand are perennial disappointments. I think they will be better this year than last, but I will need Carr & Co. to prove they can compete before I back them with hard earned dollars. Last week's loss to the Jets (albeit close) didn't make a believer out of me.

Regardless, good luck with your plays man!

 

[Cortez]

Nice little night. Let's see if we can keep this party going.

Adding:

TEN -3.5
CHI +7.0 (1.5u)
CHI ML (0.25u)

Even though I got a lot of favorites again, several of them (CAR, CIN, TEN) are anti-public plays so still have that dog feel to them. All home teams as well. Giddy up! BAL fit into that category tonight as well.

Liking the looks of NYG and CLE this week too, but waiting to see if I can get +3.0 and +7.0 respectively.

Not that anyone cares, but I will not be counting my 0.25u ML dog plays as separate plays for my record if I am also playing the spread, but they will be included in my +/- unit count.

 

[Cortez]

Added:

CLE +6.0 (0.75u)
CLE ML (0.25u)

 

[Cortez]

Week 2: 6-2 (+5.47u)
Season Total: 12-5-1 (+7.94u)

Hit both big plays this week AND both ML dogs. I don't expect to keep hitting at this pace all season, but let's see if we can't make it last a little longer...

No plays for MNF yet but leaning Colts...

 

[bleedingpurple]

Great capping

 

[Cortez]

Thanks BP.

Small play tonight:

PHI/IND under 53.5 (0.5u)

SF, GB, SEA, DEN, NO all failed to cover yesterday, 3 of which lost outright. Gotta figure public got destroyed this weekend and is in full on chase mode tonight. I'm seeing around 80% of bets on the over, so I'll take my chances with the under and hope public continues their downward spiral. Same logic could apply to a Philly play, but I like the under better.

Don't normally play totals so keeping this relatively small.