Week 2: POW and other games

[JEFF]

YTD:5-1, +3.55 units

First off, the clear-cut best play IMO is UMD+3 and on the ML.
The Terps have most of the OL back, are sound on D with a pair of top notch LBs -- EJ Henderson is the best in the nation and L.Joe is no slouch either.

UMD is extremely well-coached, as Friedgen gets everything possible outof every player, and his assts. are great as well. The fact Perry is out only helps MD backers as it gives us more value. Sure, his absence hurts, but they have a lot of young talent in the backfield.

Must remember, it is the sytem that is the most important thing. The kid Merrills and Crawford could both put up big numbers in the system, and the FB Lynch will see plenty of carries. Plenty of talent there. The WRs are good and the QBs, no matter who starts, will be trying to outdo eachother.

Terps have had their eyes on this statement game for a while, want to prove theyre no fluke. ND, meanehile,is entering game One of Year One of the Williangham era.It doesnt help that they lost a bunch of guys who got kicked out of school.

Bottom line:The Terps should win by 7-14, this is my favorite play of the week, and I'll be sitting in Giants Stadium enjoying it and hopefully cashing my ticket.

I'll add other plays to this thread later, just wanted to get this out while the line is at 3. I don't play 5 units on a game at a time very often.

UMD +3, 5 units; UMD ML +135, 2 units

GLTA

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

good start to the season, and good luck.

:toast:

 

[freelancc]

will Maryland play composed at South Bend and not get all distracted by the media circus?

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

It's in New Jersey.

I know I'm biased but "talent?" at "Maryland?" Before the Georgia Tech game, they had lost 33 straight games against ranked teams. They played 4 teams last year with talent that was better than theirs :

beating North Carolina in a sandwich between Oklahoma and Texas (+3 in TOs and gaining a total of 247 yards)

beating Georgia Tech (+4 in TOs and gaining a total of 302 yards)

losing to Florida State 52-31 (-3 in TOs)

losing to Florida 56-23

Don't believe Herbstreit and Corso, Notre Dame still has alot of talent, just not at the skill positions on offense. Their defenses and offensive lines have been strong.

I know everybody wants to jump at the chance to fade the Irish, but there will be plenty of time this season to do so. Too many questions for me to back the Irish in this game but more questions on the other side.

 

[freelancc]

thanks

thanks

I agree Notre Dame has the talent. and i am sure the new coach from the Pac-10 will air it out, which is a new concept for the Irish.

I like the future at Notre Dame, but Maryland has peaked, they should be ready for this game mentally. I will be keeping an eye on the point spread.

 

[JEFF]

I know I'm biased but "talent?" at "Maryland?" Before the Georgia Tech game, they had lost 33 straight games against ranked teams.

Two answers:
1.They have had decent talent for years, but it was not employed properly. Vanderlinden was a bust as a HC.

2.They lost those 33 games under other coaches. Friedgen is a whole different story. He did what he did last year with someone elses players. Now he's got some of his guys, and the old guys love him.

I'm not gonna argue with you about questions on MD's side: They have not named a starter at HB or QB for crying out loud. But I place a lot of emphasis on coaching, and I think MD's staff is already among the best.

I don't see a lot of big-play ability for ND. Their QBs havent shown the ability to throw the ball,and they have no proven HBs neither, of course does MD, other than Jason Crawford). Grant is banged up and his backups didnt play a down last year.

Bottom line, I think Willingham will get ND back to elite status in 4-6 years, but this team really lacks star power. They likely will have a lot of trouble putting pts on the board Saturday. Meanwhile, I think UMD's WR will have a very good day. I think the Terps will pass early, then poubd it on the ground later.

I could be wrong of course Bobby, but I like this one. IF I'm wrong you get your $$$ back.

 

[hellah10]

Good Luck man...good start to the season by the way

 

[JEFF]

As it turns out, this may be the one play I make this weekend. Looked into a bunch of others (NIU, Mich, CSU) but not sure if I'll pull the trigger. Just so much uncertainty. But I am going to add:

UMD/ND under 48, 2 units

Looks more and more like McBrien will be starting at QB for Terps, favoring a short passing game and less big-play ability. The wet turf (it is supposed to rain, and there will be Giant and Jet games at The Meadowlands in the two days prior to this one) also means Friedgen is unlikely to start Kelly.

ND's D looks solid, but the offense is full of ?s

I just don't see them scoring many point against MD's D. And MD's O will need some time to get going, with all the mixed parts.

I'm going to look more at someof these other games,but as you can easily tell, this one os by far my fave. GLTA.

 

[JEFF]

Adding:
Uconn +33, 2 units

Sure, BC smashed CONN by 52 last year, but there is a lot of excitement for DI play in Storrs. Theyre committed to making this a quality Big East. 10 starters are back on a defense that was horrible last year, but should be improved. And don't forget, some of these juniors and srs on defense have been getting their dicks kicked in by BC for a few years now. This is a developing regional
rivalry and they want to have a good go at it.

I like the running back Cauley who will start for CONN. He's a true freshman but he's got great breakaway speed and can juke. Should improve vastly on CONN's 2.3 ypc.

Bottom line UCONN is far from being there, but I think they stay within this big #.

 

[JEFF]

Adding Michigan -5.5, 3 units

Like the Wolverines by double digits. WASH is young and has nine seniors on entire depth chart, while MICH returns a ton, especially on D. Huskies have nice passing game but MICH secondary is stout, too. If WASH can't run the ball to set up the pass, they're screwed.
Also, WASH is banged up in secondary and at LB spot.

Oh, yea, then there's the revenge factor for last year, when MICH dominated the stats but blew that game at WASH. I think they come out with guns blazing. The sharps (I don't presume to be one, of course) told us what they thought when the seemingly reasonable line jumped a few points out of the gate.

 

[Nickelback]

Jeff,

I sure hope you're right about Michigan winning this game, but I can promise you they will not come out with guns blazing! This is Michigan and not the same team as the last two years with WR weapons. . . but a more traditional Michigan team that will run the football. Nice call on the fact that Washington will have to run the ball to set up the pass. . . I believe they won't get it done on the ground either and will eventually take some risks in the 2nd half.

GL

 

[JEFF]

Mich is playing that sorta-west-coast offense though, and they say they'll throw it around more. What do you think of Navarre?

 

[Nickelback]

Navarre is an interesting QB. . . I remember his first few games when filling in for Henson a couple years ago and he played extremely well against crappy teams! Then when the first real test came along, he wasn't as effective throwing the ball. Not sure if it was his confidence or the simple fact that he wasn't as good as everyone thought he was going to be. Then Henson came back and we never saw much of Navarre till last season. Navarre's effectiveness in the air last season was at the hands of Marquise Walker but unfortunately he is gone. If Henson was still with this team, the offense would be built around his talented arm and they would be throwing the ball as they have the past couple years and taking chances down the field. . . but not with Navarre at the helm. You are right about the passing attack being similar to a West Coast offense but the twist will be that Michigan will run a lot more than one would expect. . . especially in big games like this one. Sure hope your Michigan side does come in because I see the Wolves taking it extremely easy with a nice lead and allowing the defense to come up with the plays needed to get the win. I believe the D would come up huge if they had a nice lead to play with.

 

[Nickelback]

Just an FYI Jeff with the numbers from last season:

Michigan's leading rusher ran for 932 yards and Walker (the top WR and best offensive threat for Michigan) only outgained him by just over 200 yards through the air! The next closest receiver only tallied 279 yards! I just don't see a lot of weapons and in a big game, Michigan may proclaim to opening a passing attack, but it should be VERY VERY conservative and likely in order to open up the running game if anything.

 

[JEFF]

Thing is, if Wash doesnt get the groud game going they will become predictable. That could = turnovers. This Mich defense could be awesome this year, and early in the year that makes a big diff. WASH have sucked away from home, and I think there was a reason this line wasnt set at UM -3. Hardly a lock, of course, but a solid play IMO.

 

[Nickelback]

I'm starting to agree that Michigan is a good play here. . . my only concern is still with Michigan's secondary. They were obviously overmatched last year against the Vols in the bowl game, but Washington is hardly Tennessee and their passing attack. And Michigan did shut down the passing attack last year. . . they are always solid against the run and I'm sure the Huskies know this going into the game. If Michigan's secondary is as effective as they should be against this decent but not great Husky passing attack, then I feel you will have nothing to worry about. . . if not, then it could be a very close game. Either way, low scoring but Michigan winning by 7 or 10 is certainly reasonable to believe.

 

[JEFF]

Just got back from Jersey and what can I say ... not a good showing by the Terps. Didnt help that Barnard was banged up and Leon Joe was suspended but no excuses, Maryland got dominated.

What a pathetic offense. 123 yards total. Yuck. I'll give it to ND, they are better than I thought. But their offense simply cannot put the ball in the endzone and that will hurt them this season. Setta is a great kicker though.

Anyways, sorry to anyone I talked into this game ... its the risk you run when you post here - looking like an :moon: .

2-1 on other games, killed on the big one though, hurts when you are 7-3, but minus 3.5 units. Time to write it on the chalkboard a 100 times:

"Its all about money managment. Its all about money managment.Its all about money managment. It's all ..."

 

[JEFF]

Adding KY +14, 1 unit


Louisville is good, very good. But they play like sheet every year on national TV, this is a local rivalry game, and I'm gonna side with the bookies (and take a little bit of action:nono: )

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

like the play jeff,,

GL to you today!

 

[JEFF]

Glad to see we're on the same side

Glad to see we're on the same side

Thanks $$$, and right back atcha