Week 3 Early Leans

[blgstocks]

Here are some early leans.....

Tenn +3.5 - Overreaction to AF game, and Tenn giving points at home against a very good Cal team.

ASU -10 @Colorado - This line is a freakin mystery to me. It looks way to good to be true. The same colorado team that is 0-2 and lost to Div2 and CSU(CSU is a slight dog to Nevada who ASU beat up on last week) ASU does have Cal next week though

Texas -29.5 over Rice - Anybody know how rice front 7 are? Rice gave Ucla fits but I think UCLA is a total pass team and Rice came prepared. I also think this line is overeaction, and we all know how Mac Brown likes to pile up points.

VT Under 42 - Duke will not score. So really I might consider hadging taking VT -35 and might get lil middle

No Ill - 23.5 - I really wasn't very impressed with NI against OSU earlier, but Buffalo is sooo bad how can they not put up 24 on them or more. I dont know how good do you guys think NoIll is?

Anyways, I throw these out there for you guys to criticize them and tell me why you are on the same side or against me because Lord knows I have not been pickin winners lately. So please add your opinions.

Oh and heres a pic for your troubles....

 

[Tavros]

When a line seems too good to be true, it usually is. Be careful with such lines.

Also, re: UT/Rice...I know Texas better than any team out there ('03 graduate)...former UT QB Applewhite is running the offense for Rice...he will be able to help the D breakdown Greg Davis's inconsistent play-calling this week. Lots of people on the "let's blowout Rice after OSU game" train...I don't buy it...Texas is in for some big surprises this year...the surrounding cast is great, but VY won so many games on his own last year, with no help...lines will be more pro-Texas later in the year, especially if Rice gives them a game. I am leaning to Rice on that one.

Love the reasoning on Tennessee, but have no opinion on it.

Also no opinion on No Ill...but any time a favorite loses outright and is laying big points the next week, it's typically a good value bet.

Will shoot you an email later in the day...good luck

 

[bgold13]

asu -10 is a classic trap, sounds way too easy

asu is a passing team, which is basically unstoppable thru the air...

CU is a run defense, they truggle on the pass

CU offense is a total mess

ASU defense hasn't looked this good in 4 years, which isn't saying much, but already have half as many sacks in 2 games as they did all of last year.


Key note: coaching: HC Hawking and OC Helfrich were both under ASU HC Koetter at one point.. Helfrich coached ASU QB Carpenter last yr as ASU QB COACH... THey will know each other's systems

 

[blgstocks]

I dont know BGold, with everything you told me, beside the coaching, I still like ASU -10. Why do you think it is a trap line? I would have thought this line should be around -17.5 at least, the way CU is playing and the way ASU is playing.

I also am looking at USF +2 over UCF. I also like the over on this game. Even though USF has a killer LB corp I think this one is close and a firefight. Just an early lean as well, so if anyone has opinions about this game please let me know.

 

[Tavros]

sent you an email yesterday...might be filtering to JUNK mail from a gmail acct.

 

[bgold13]

s

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When a line seems to be a minumum of a td off, it usually scares me off..

cu has nothing to play for in this game... so they have nothing to lose, a team with no expectation and nothinig to lose at home may be dangerous...
asu has a huge road game at cal the following week.. just scares me as an asu fan... but also as a bettor

 

[gman2]

I dont know BGold, with everything you told me, beside the coaching, I still like ASU -10. Why do you think it is a trap line? I would have thought this line should be around -17.5 at least, the way CU is playing and the way ASU is playing.

whoa. slow the roll on arizona state.
this is still a team that allowed almost 35 ppg on the road last year.
i know, i know. they got an infusion of jucos and upgraded their defense.
ill believe it when i see it.
lines of 17+ on the road are reserved for teams who are capable of dominating games on both sides of the ball. two weeks ago, we were wondering if this team was going to get shocked at home by northern arizona until an asu interception return opened the game up in the 4th qtr and broke a tie. credit is due to asu because they manhandled a pretty decent nevada team.
im not trying to turn this into a pac10 vs. the world debate by any means, but theyve collectively turned in some real clunkers away from home this year. you can put aside usc because theyre an atypical pac10 team.
when you talk about installing a team as a 17-pt chalk on the road, youre talking about a game where the underdog winning would be a massive upset.

would that be the case here? not really. colorado is rebuilding, but the world wouldnt have to come off its axis for the buffs to win on saturday. were not talking about baylor here (incidentally, im not even sure asu would be a 17 pt chalk against baylor).

to be honest, i expected this line to be arizona state (-7). theyre the better team, but its not a lopsided mismatch. having said that, im not completely surprised the line opened at (i believe) 9.5 and has now cracked DD.

btw- did koetter suddenly become a reliable chalk overnight? asu will always be a live dog but shaky chalk with that impressive O, but hardly proven D

btw- northern's offense is explosive. their defense, however, is pathetic. to let up 300+ passing yards to one of the worst passing teams in college football is truly embarrassing. buffalo will probably be gassed from a 3OT game they could have won at BG, but northern might have to score 45+ to cover that number. it could easily happen. but niu was a disaster last week. i couldnt believe what i was watching.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Baylor is better than Colorado....even before the last 2 weeks.

Bears continue to improve...pretty unfair dig there...

Top 25 BCS thinking TCU was only a 7 point chalk in Waco....

 

[bgold13]

Also ASU's best all around player.. Rudy Burgess suffered a concusion early in the 1st qtr vs Nevada, his status for saturday is still to be determined

 

[blgstocks]

Hey Tavros, got your mail, sent you one right back.

To gman, you bring up some good points about the games as I always look forward to your analysis, haven't seen you posting many plays though.

Bgold this game doesn't really scare me much as a fan of ASU, yeah, they occasionaly lay a turd out of nowhere, but colorado is real bad. But their defense is solid where ASU can do the most damage to them, at DB. Looking closer at the #'s I think this game should be won by double digits but I might pass just because of the look-ahead game with Cal.

I will probably post my card tomorrow.

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

I love your posts BLG. Keep those pics coming.

BTW, I agree with Sun. Baylor is better than CU.

 

[blgstocks]

Glad to see you posting again Jayhawk, you know your comments are always welcome in my posts



I am leaning very heavily on Uconn -6 and the under at 42