Week 3 NFL Plays

Nick Douglas

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Two early plays for this week. You can get these plays at 5% juice at VIP Sports (www.VIPSports.com). They have a promotion where NFL games are 5% juice on Tuesdays, and I believe that applies to NBA games as well.

Giants vs. KANSAS CITY over 39 315/300

Both of these teams have dynamic offenses with little defense. Green, even in his first real week with his new team, showed some good things. I expect Snoop Minnis especially to take advantage of a young and suspect Giants secondary. Preist Holmes was held in check by Oakland but the Giants have problems stopping the run so I expect him to balance the offense and open up the Chiefs running game.

Kansas City has a great set of linebackers and almost nothing else on defense. Collins should have plenty of time to throw and I thought he looked good when given time in week 1. Kansas City will struggle to stop the run all year and that should apply here.

Obviously there are emotional factors for both teams, especially New York, here. I do believe that football is different than baseball in that losing a game to a New York team when you are out of a pennant race is no big deal, while losing at home to go to 0-2 when only four teams make the playoffs could cripple a season. Both teams should be up here and with the offenses already more talented than the defenses, that should spell a high scoring game.

Jets vs. NEW ENGLAND over 38.5 315/300

Again, two offenses that I really like against two suspect defenses. Bledsoe looked very accurate in week one. He should have a stronger rushing attack here as the Jets mainly feature pass rushers on their defensive line and their linebackers still look to be adjusting to the 4-3. Obviously the Jets secondary has major holes.

The Pats get back top choice Richard Seymour to help stop the run, which should give Testaverde all the more incentive to use his solid wide receivers. As we all know, more passes means more points.

Again, there are emotional factors involved here. Both teams are badly in need of a victory if they are to have a good shot at a slimmed down postseason. With offensive advantages already in place, I expect an even higher scoring game than expected here.
 

AR182

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I don't know how you can classify the Giants as suspect.Although their DB's looked lost against Denver,they did start two rookies at CB.This week they expect Sehorn back & with a game under the belt& not facing the Bronco's offense,their DB's should play a lot better.I think they will have problems with Gonzalez,but their WR's don't really scare anyone at this point.IMO the Giants front 7 are strong & match up well vs. KC running attack.Don't get me wrong I wish you well since I am not touching the KC\Giants game.Good Luck.
 

Nick Douglas

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I really like Snoop Minnis and I think he has ROTY potential opposite Alexander. The Giants have to bring pressure rushing four otherwise their DBs, even Sehorn, will get beat. Last year, they did great vs. teams that can't handle the outside rush like DAL, ARI, PHI and MIN. KC has good OTs in my opinion.

The thing about the Giants defense is that they are a classic every other year defense. When they get the soft schedule, they play well but the year after a playoff appearance, Strahan has historically had bad years and they struggle. Maybe they will prove me wrong but from what I have seen, Strahan is not the force he was last year in the NFC divisional and championship. Without that pressure, I see major trouble.

All that said, I like the Giants offense this year. Good play calling and good depth.
 

Valuist

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How could the Giants be considered an offensive oriented team? Are we talking about the baseball team in SF or the football team? NYG was 5th out of 31 teams in total defense last year, and 2nd against the run. Offensively, they were an okay 13th out of 31 teams. THey were in a tough spot opening week facing an explosive offense in mile high altitude.
 

Nick Douglas

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I am just going by the talent they are putting on the field this year. There are several changes from last year on defense. When you play a young secondary like they do you will give up yards. Giants will do well on offense with all their key guys in place this year.
 

Nick Douglas

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Most likely these are my last two plays of the week. Good luck, everybody.

CINCINNATI +290 over Baltimore 300/870

It is hard to imagine Baltimore running the ball at all here. The Bengals will use that fact to bring outside pressure on Grbac with their good linebackers. With Jermaine Lewis likely out, that means Stokley and Taylor will have to have big days. That is a big load to put in inexperienced wideouts.

Can Cincy move the ball in this game? Last year, the Ravens mobbed them, winning 37-0 and 27-7. It was ugly. Dillon only ran for 32 yards combined. This year will be different. The Ravens are incapable of controlling the game on the ground, which forced Cincy to basically abandon Dillon last year. This year, along with a healthy Darnay Scott and a big improvement at QB in Kitna, Dillon should receive less focus from the Ravens defense. I am not predicting a 100 yard day, but I do think he will be a positive part of a balanced attack.

Looking at the performance from both teams in week 1, Cincy clearly looked like the better team. While Baltimore was outplayed for a half before taking over in the second against a depleted Bears team, Cincy took control of the game against an underrated Patriots team.

With the super Bengals linebackers and Baltimore's passing game revolving around short passes, it is unlikely that Grbac will complete 80% of his passes this week. Without that kind of production, anything over 13 or 14 points from Baltimore will be difficult to come by. With their more balanced attack and some big incentive to gain revenge from last year, Cincy should be able to pull out a tough game.

SAN FRANCISCO +250 over St. Louis 300/750

One the one hand, Warner passed for 282 yards and led his team to a win. In fact, he may have passed for even more had the game not appeared sewn up entering the fourth quarter. On the other hand, Faulk was limited and the Rams gained less than 100 yards total on the ground.

So the $64,000 question is: Is this Rams offense still a juggernaut, or have defensive coordinators devised adequate gameplans to keep their scores in the twenties? At least in this case, I am betting on the latter.

"Toast" Plummer and Jason Webster look much better so far at CB than they did last year in their rookie seasons. Last year's games against St. Louis were parades up and down the field by the Rams offense as Plummer and Webster got burned on nearly every play. This year both young lads looked great in preseason and had a good start in week 1 by holding the Falcons to just over 100 yards passing.

Mora will likely put in a number of wild blitzes to attempt to rush Warner into picks (count on about 2 per game from Warner this year). If Schulters can quarterback the secondary and keep them disciplined and if Peterson and Ulbrich can provide a rush when they are *not* blitzing, then the Niners should have success in keeping the Rams from running wild.

On the other side of the ball, Terrell Owens is just plain uncoverable. Even with Williams added, the Rams will have a very hard time stopping Garcia throwing all over the field. The key on this side of the ball is the running game. Hearst certainly looked apprehensive against Atlanta and with St. Louis playing a more aggresive defense, he will have to step his game up here.

With the improvements from both teams on defense, I see a very evenly matched game here. This is a very big game for San Francisco in hopes of showing that they are back among the NFC's elite so I expect them to take the opportunity at home and run with it to win the game.
 

pepin46

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at the risk of getting on top of jack's shi..list, i agree that if you like cinci here, the money line is the way to go.

s.f./stl is a definite pass for me.


pep
 

yearofthesnake

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very nice mr douglas....

did ernie and tramp come up with those selections, ala my three sons? just kidding.

I like home dogs as well but to be quite honest most are like leaps of faith this week, which may be a good reason to play them.

I noticed that you backed Ne again this week. the public is all over the nyj and ne didn't play that poorly on the road last week.

bal is a bet against for the forseeable future, I think they're 11=1 ATS in their last twelve. history and the law is starting to go into effect...cincy is the play there...

[This message has been edited by yearofthesnake (edited 09-22-2001).]
 
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