Jacksonville +7 over Indy - Jacksonville almost always plays Indy tough, and their defense looks even better than it has in years past. This one scares me a bit because it is a classic letdown situation after the Jags big win on Monday night, but really not thinking that they will pull off the upset, just hang around within 7.
Detroit -7 over GB - Don't think Detroit was as bad as they looked against the Bears last Sunday, but I think that the Packers are every bit as bad as they looked against the Bears the previous week. Detroit really does have a pretty decent offense. They would have put up a decent amount of points against the Bears if they had avoided stupid penalties and Kevin Jones could hang onto the ball. Seattle and Chicago both had real tough defenses, so facing the terrible Packer D at home when they are desperate for a win spells blowout.
Buffalo/NYJ Over 34.5 - Don't really expect a shootout, but this number is just too low. Courtesy of DirecTV last weekend, I watched the Miami/Buffalo game last week and really thought the lack of Miami scoring was more due to their inept offense and some terrible plays by Culpepper rather than an awesome Bills D. Also, the Jets offense has looked pretty good the first couple games. Bottom line is that I see both teams scoring at least 17, and that will get the over.
NE -6.5 Over Denver - Yes, the KC D looked a lot better last week than in years past. But a lot of those throws by Plummer were just plain awful. It also looks like Shannahan has finally run out of his "insert any running back here" magic. The Broncos will probably eventually get it going offensively, but against Bellicheck on the road in a playoff revenge game for the Pats? I don't think so.
Each play is for 5 Units
Other games that I have thoughts on but won't be betting:
Miami -11 over Tennessee - I know that Tennessee is bad, and they have had the Billy Volek distraction, but how the hell is Miami laying 11 to ANYONE after their first 2 performances. This line just looks bogus, but I can't figure out if it's an overreaction to Tennessee looking so bad the first 2 weeks, or an underreaction to how bad Miami has looked by people who are still blindly picking them to go to the Super Bowl.
Minny +3.5 over Chicago - I am a huge Bears fan but I will admit that this is too much respect to give them this early in the season. You have to have a serious talent mismatch to make one team a 3.5 point favorite on the road in a division matchup. I think the Bears are better and I think they will win, but logic tells me to take the home team with the 3.5.
Thoughts appreciated. GL Everyone!
Detroit -7 over GB - Don't think Detroit was as bad as they looked against the Bears last Sunday, but I think that the Packers are every bit as bad as they looked against the Bears the previous week. Detroit really does have a pretty decent offense. They would have put up a decent amount of points against the Bears if they had avoided stupid penalties and Kevin Jones could hang onto the ball. Seattle and Chicago both had real tough defenses, so facing the terrible Packer D at home when they are desperate for a win spells blowout.
Buffalo/NYJ Over 34.5 - Don't really expect a shootout, but this number is just too low. Courtesy of DirecTV last weekend, I watched the Miami/Buffalo game last week and really thought the lack of Miami scoring was more due to their inept offense and some terrible plays by Culpepper rather than an awesome Bills D. Also, the Jets offense has looked pretty good the first couple games. Bottom line is that I see both teams scoring at least 17, and that will get the over.
NE -6.5 Over Denver - Yes, the KC D looked a lot better last week than in years past. But a lot of those throws by Plummer were just plain awful. It also looks like Shannahan has finally run out of his "insert any running back here" magic. The Broncos will probably eventually get it going offensively, but against Bellicheck on the road in a playoff revenge game for the Pats? I don't think so.
Each play is for 5 Units
Other games that I have thoughts on but won't be betting:
Miami -11 over Tennessee - I know that Tennessee is bad, and they have had the Billy Volek distraction, but how the hell is Miami laying 11 to ANYONE after their first 2 performances. This line just looks bogus, but I can't figure out if it's an overreaction to Tennessee looking so bad the first 2 weeks, or an underreaction to how bad Miami has looked by people who are still blindly picking them to go to the Super Bowl.
Minny +3.5 over Chicago - I am a huge Bears fan but I will admit that this is too much respect to give them this early in the season. You have to have a serious talent mismatch to make one team a 3.5 point favorite on the road in a division matchup. I think the Bears are better and I think they will win, but logic tells me to take the home team with the 3.5.
Thoughts appreciated. GL Everyone!
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