week 4 first look-pass or play?

[pepin46]

tenn/balt

pass

wash/giants

leaning to giants.

sandiego/clev

give me s.d. or give me 7 slashes. i am convinced. this line should be a bit higher, in the 6 area.

ariz/phil

so philly is going to demolish all visitors? not quite, but not even sure i want to touch this.

chi/atlanta

3 points? so atlanta gets 3 for being at home? they are worth a little more than that, closer to 8.

cinci/pitt

too close to call, looking for a 16-10 game or so. under does look attractive.

minn/n.o.

both teams struggling in their own ways. minny has shown well against n.o., but a reversal is in order. may pass here too.

newengland/miami

fat line between two rivals, despite bledsoe. i need further research here.

k.c./denver

as bubba pointed out: 4 straight wins and ats for kc. what the heck? take k.c. and be happy.

jax/seattle

game of the week. seattle's only win this year? maybe a pass.

jets/buff

struggling jets hung in there against sf. maybe santa comes in this week.

green bay/tampa

unstoppable force meets a wobbling object and the wobbler gets the edge? i don't think so. green bay in a tight one.

carol/s.f.

need to research.

st louis/detroit

also need some research.

comments? shoot.


pep

 

[yearofthesnake]

re: wash/nyg

I don?t know where to begin. How can anyone possibly play Washington here? Even with 14pts. KC could have put up 60pts against them in RFK, or wherever the heck their stadium name is.

The Giants are still offensively challenged but the Washington has major problems on both sides of the ball. If KC can move the ball like they did, the Giants should be able to plate 30, No??. Laying 14 with isn?t a part my vocabulary but I may make an exception.

 

[yearofthesnake]

re: ariz/phil

Here?s the deal. All you have to do is pass the ball to beat this Ariz team. Enter Phil, with zero ground game all they will do is pass. Ariz looked bad against ATL at home not being able to do much at all. Again, even being a divisional foe Ariz will be hard ticket to buy even at this juicy line. I do like them more then Wash however, but that doesn?t mean I?ll take them here.

 

[pepin46]

well put. my lean as one of my main selections would be toward the giants, who have to get that offense going.

they may use this game to take some chances offensively, but still should pull the 2 td differential.

the over seems like a possibility in my crystal ball as well, projecting a 31-13 score or so, or 8 points over the line, which is about the least acceptable differential for me to play totals.

with ariz, it looks like it needs some heavy technical input, which i don't have, having to do with ariz offensive line, etc. a weakness there could very well make up for the potential lack of scoring by philly, opening the game up for fumbles, interceptions and special teams on returns.
is this the case there?


pep

 

[Senor Capper]

Green Bay at Tampa Bay

Packers are 3-0 against opponents with combined records of 1-7.
They will crowd the line to stop the run and force Brad Johnson to throw.


If the Bucs don't win this home game, they will be 2.5 games behind the Packers and would still have to go to Green Bay.
Not a good thing !

But the pressures on BJ.

I would probably lean towards GB but will fade this game, there are other delicacies on the menu

 

[kaoboy]

One betting stratagy you might consider if
laying a lot of points, would be to play it
for equal units on side and total.

For example, the Sunday night game with
Dallas at Philly. I didn't like the spread
but liked Philly to win, but not sure if
they would cover. I felt Dallas could at
the very least be able to put some points
on the board.

I settled on Dallas plus the points and
take the over. I had at least a push if
Dallas scores 13pts.

I never even looked at a weather report
that may have put me on an under but as
it turned out I got the push by the half.

My thoughts here are to play the Arizona
Philly game the same way. Only this time
I'm leaning toward Philly and over.

This game unlikely to be settled defensively
and Arizona and under unlikely.

Let the dynamics of the spread and scoring
earn you a push or win.