Week 4 Picks

[RipIt3]

Here they are. I've narrowed it down to five plays for this weekend. If any of you have any thoughts on the games below, feel free to share them as I need all the help I can get. Write-ups will come for each game sometime tomorrow/Friday.

Week 1: 0-0
Week 2: 1-1
Week 3: 3-8 --- WAY TOO MANY! What was I thinking? DOH! Stupid small plays: ie. 1H, 2H, ML, etc. ~ -8 units

Week 4 Plays

Sides...

2*
Was -2.5

1*
Cin +6
Car -6

Totals...

1*
Cin U 41
Ari O 44.5 - not sure about this one. need to look at it some more

 

[RipIt3]

NE @ Was -2.5

NE @ Was -2.5

Was -2.5

Ok, if this game was being played in NE, that means Was would be +3.5 underdogs? I don't think so. I'd take Washington and a field goal + hook against an injury-stricken Pats team any day. The fact that NE has to go on the road into what is sure to be a raukus FedEx Field and Was isn't even laying a field goal seems to be like a lot of line value in favor of the Skins.

Let's start with the injuries to the Patriots...

Tom Brady QB Arm Prob Sun - -
Mike Vrabel OLB Arm Doub Sun - -
Ty Law CB Leg Ques Sun - -
Ted Washington DT Leg Out Sun - -
David Patten WR Leg Ques Sun - -
Fred McCrary RB Knee Ques Sun - -
Mike Compton G Foot I-R - -
Je'Rod Cherry S Leg Ques Sun - -
Rosevelt Colvin LB Hip out for season - -
Damien Woody C Chest Ques Sun - -
Ted Johnson LB Foot Early Nov - -
Mike Cloud RB Suspension Early Oct - -
Dan Stricker WR Undisclosed I-R - -
Kenyatta Jones T Knee PUP

Ridiculous. Pats players say the've never seen anything like it. The defense has been knocked down more than a level and could be extremely exposed to a potent Washington attack - both on the ground and through the air. QB Ramsey seems to have matured a lot and will benefit from a running game that should hit 100 yards on the ground as NE has given up 89.3 yards/game despite playing NYJ and Buf, two teams that haven't been able to accomplish anything in the run. Was is averaging 136 yards/game on the ground. It will be asking a lot to stop both the run and the pass with a Defense that has countless holes due to injury.

On the offensive side of the ball for the Patriots, Tom Brady came off the field with a noticably swollen elbow last week. If the Was D-Line can knock him down early, Tom could be in for a long day against a Was team that seems to have started to turn a corner under sophomore year coach Steve Spurrier.

Washington's Injuries:

Zeron Flemister TE Achilles Ques Sun - -
Chris Clemons LB Undisclosed I-R - -
Bruce Branch CB Undisclosed I-R - -
Taylor Jacobs WR Abdominal Prob Sun - -
Brandon Noble DT Knee out for season

Unlike NE, Was hasn't had any suffered any large scale injuries recently to key players. As the weeks go by, expect both the O and D units to begin playing more cohesively as they begin refining thier systems. NE second string LB's could be at a huge disadvantage against mid-range passes to Was speedy wide-outs. If Tedy Bruschi doesn't step up in a big way, NE will have a hard time stopping the Was attack.

If Was can cut their penalties in half, something supposedly a focus this last week in practice for the Skins, they can move to 3-1.

Pick:
'Skins 24
Pats 13

 

[RipIt3]

Cin @ Cle -6

Cin @ Cle -6

Cin +6

I like Cincy here for a number of reasons. First is the injuries to the Browns. WR has Dennis Northcut has hairline fracture in his ribs (what's up with rib injuries this season??). And now Holcumb has been knocked out of the starting line-up with a hairline fracture in his leg. Cle offense was already struggling as it was, avg about 253 yards/game. Don't expect that number to go up as a stale Tim Couch will be asked to play in front of the fans that booed him out of a starting position last season. They weren't casual in showing their dislike of him and there are many questions surrounding the mental state of Couch. Now he is starting at home, in front of those fans and against a very staunch Cin pass D.

Cleveland's big downfall will be in their rush D. If Corey Dillon is good to go in this game, Cin should have a fairly balanced attack against the Cle D, as they have in their last couple of meetings where the Cin O has averaged about 125 rushing yards and 220 passing yards/contest.

Cleveland is coming off a big upset win against SF. Couch will have to enter and produce - not sure if he can do that in front of fans who have not been quiet about their dislike for him and with the injuries to an already average receiving corps. On the road, maybe, but in front of the home fans who have shown their dislike, and with an offense that is somewhat depleted, it's going to be tough.

These are very similar teams defensively: tough against the pass but with a porous Run D. Both teams are going to have to establish a running game to get any room to pass. Cin has struggled, as well as Cleveland, in this aspect, but they have better personel to succeed against Cle Run D. If Corey Dillon can grind out 100 yards, Cin should keep this game close and cover.

Cleveland has passed for more yards than their opponents in each of their first three games, but none of those defenses they've faced have defended the pass as well as Cincy has - and Cincy's pass D is well tested against what should be considered to be good passing teams. It was Cleveland's ability to throw the ball that won them the game last week - despite the injuries. However, Cincy's pass D is much tougher than SF and now with Couch and the hurting WR group, finding yards through the air will be tough.

I want to look at the motivational factors in this game. Cincy is viewing this game with a sense of urgency, as reported in a number of articles (you can find them in the game write-up message board). They know they have had their opportunities to put a win on the board and that if they are going to start turning around the trend of the last 12-13 years, they need to start with a win this week.
Cleveland on the other hand started out very poorly and barely pulled out the victory last week against SF. Couch will surely want to prove he can play in front of the fans in Cleveland, but this isn't the week to force things - don't make any mistakes, Cin can make you pay. Cle might be asking too much to have Couch cover 6 against a hungry Cincinnati team that has a coach insistent on D and grinding the ball to open up the pass. Cle also has division rival Pittsburgh next week @ Pittsburgh. With a dangerous Cininatti team sandwiched between an upset win and a big division rival, a small let-down isn't out of the realm of possibility. Meanwhile, Cin has Buff, Bal and Sea in their next three games - this might be their first chance to win a game outright until they face Arizona November 2nd.


Pick:
Cle 17
Cin 14

 

[RipIt3]

Atl @ Car -6

Atl @ Car -6

Car -6

Woeful are the Atlanta Falcons.

Last season, the Falcons took it to Carolina, beeting them 70somthing - ZERO in the two games they played them. The shifty MVick did a number and the dirty-birds ran all over the field on Carolina. Revenge is the name of this game...

Why revenge this game? Why not the last time these two teams faced last year after Atlanta wholloped them 30-0? Why didn't Carolina get revenge then instead of getting beaten 41-0? Well, at the tail end of an eight game losing streak, it is hard, even for pro teams, to muster up the confidence/courage/anger to upset a very hot team on a roll. At that point in the season, the Panthers knew they weren't going to make the playoffs and had to travel to Atlanta. Not the set-up for a revenge game.

Enter 2003. Atlanta is 1-2 and reeling after a tough loss to Was and a blow-out against TB (both games at home). Now they are the ones travelling against a team that is running the ball with conviction and possesses one of the top Run D's in the league. Carolina hasn't forgotten about the way Atlanta ran up the score on them last year and knows they have a chance to move to 3-0 while giving Atlanta their 3rd loss of a very young 2003 season - something that would prove to be a huge advantage later in the year.

Davis, simply put, is going to get the ball 30 times and is going to run all over the Falcons, who have given up 135 yards/game against TB, Was, Dal - teams that pass the ball much more than they run. Atl is going to have to focus on the run so much, it should open up passing lanes for QB Jake Delhomme, who could produce decent numbers.

The Atlanta O-Line has holes that were once negligable with MVick running around. Now that he's gone however, they have been exposed and QB DJohnson could be in for another long day. The O-Line isn't going to be able to push around the Panthers and without a running game, Atl is going to find it hard to pass the ball. Expect double teams, once again, on Price.

Including the pre-season, the Panthers are 9-1 in their last ten, and for good reason: a proven winning formula. They have a good running attack and a staunch defense. Their pass D has some holes in it, but the Falcons don't possess the O-Line or specialty personel to take advantage. Atlanta should have a hard time moving the ball in this game.

I don't see Atlanta scoring more than 10 points in this game. TB threw the ball all over the field against Carolina, racking up well over 300 yards through the air. However, they only came away with 9 points. That's because Carolina's red zone D is among the best in the league because teams can't run down there and the field isn't big enough to be stretched, which allows the defensive backs to keep the plays in front of them, which allows the linebackers to help out in knocking down passes.

With a punishing running game complemented by an Atlanta pass D that ranks 28 in QB Rating defensed, Delhomme should be able to provide just enough yardage to keep Atlanta's D honest and give Carolina the cover.

Pick:
Carolina 24
Atlanta 10

 

[RipIt3]

Cin @ Cle 41

Cin @ Cle 41

Cin U 41

This total seems way too high to me. I said it on Monday of this week and it has only been confirmed by a number a quality pickers here at MadJacks. Very confident in this pick and thinking about bumping it up to 2*...

I'm a big fan of the QB ranking for a number of reasons. I think, especially for defenses, it provides a good assessment of the overall effectiveness of a Pass O or Pass D. Tampa Bay, for example, has a QB ranking of 25+. Very very low and they are, without a doubt, one of the best pass D's in the league. I think yardage can be deceiving. Why? A QB can throw for 300 yards, but if he throws 2-3 INT and no pass TD's, the defense pass D isn't as bad as it would appear to be if one looked just at yardage... that said...

Cin and Cle both possess extremely good pass defenses, and they have put up those numbers against teams known for throwing the ball: Pit (2), Oak, Denver, SF, Ind - and Baltimore - but they suck in the pass. That's 5/6 offenses that are effective at throwing the ball that Cle/Cin have been tough against. Their rankings, both teams having played three games, for QB Rating against sit at: Cin 3, Cle 5.

Neither of these teams are going to throw the ball all over the field. Both of these teams are going to have to focus on the run to try to open things up and when they do pass, they are going to have good pass D's standing in their way. This is especially reinforced now that TCouch is starting for Cle. As I wrote in the game write-up, he could very well have a hard time stepping in cold against a team that has a good pass D and with a town that he knows would rather have Holcumb under center.

That means the clock is going to run, run, run as these two teams do the same thing knowing that they won't be that effective throwing the ball. This game is going to be boring to watch. Whichever team wins the ball control and field position battles should win this game - which should be low-scoring as well.

The under has many favorable trends in this series:

? Under is 4-2 in the last six meetings.
? Under is 5-0 in CIN's last five games overall.
? Under is 7-3-1 in the Browns last 11 overall.

Overall, that is 18-5-1, or 75% unders.

Neither of these teams is going to move the ball effectively enough through the air to put up points on the board and keep the clock stopped. Also, the running games are suspect: Cle has had a hard time getting things going while Cin sports a running back who hurt his groin last week. I can't see this game going over 38 points and see an under with the total set at 41.

Pick:
Cle 17
Cin 14 - under 41

 

[RipIt3]

Ari O 44.5

Ari O 44.5

Ok, I'm really not sure about this game. I'll probably end up laying off it, but I thought I'd write it up and put it out there to see what you guys think...

I don't know if Martz is playing mind games or what, saying he's scaling back the StLouis O due to injuries at RB. Seems to me if I was thin at RB and had a QB capable of throwing the ball around the field and WR capable of stretching it, I would do just that to open up running lanes for a depleted backfield. Martz, however, has stated the opposite. He's come out and said they are going to focus on a short passing game and running the ball. The question is, do I believe him? Is it a ploy? I think it might be...

A game between StL and Ari, two teems that can throw the ball around and don't offer much resistance on D, could turn into a shoot-out very quickly. However...

StL runs a zone scheme in their secondary. Arizona's Jeff Blake has a history of tough games against such defenses. His receivers aren't fast enough and deep enough (talent-wise) to stretch the zone to be effective against a StL zone defense. WR Boldin, for example, is good in man-to-man because of his open field abilities and his ability to run after the catch. What the zone does to the Cardinals passing game is forces Blake to be extremely accurate with his placement as well as making correct reads and for him to be on the same page with his receivers.

A number of things are working against Arizona here. First, Blake isn't that type of QB. He never has been. He's much better against man-to-man coverage when he can make a few more mistakes with the football and be bailed out by receivers making adjustments on their man. The second lies in the fact that the Cardinals receivers are young. It takes a lot more knowledge and discipline to have an effective passing game against a zone secondary when it comes to making correct reads and having experience to be on the same page with the QB.

One of two things is going to happen in this game:
1) StLouis is lying and they are going to come out throwing the ball right out of the gate - putting Arizona's porous pass D on its heels from the start - causing scoring to soar over the the total as Ari would be forced to play the same style of ball to keep up ... or ....
2) StLouis will actually come out running the ball and throwing short passes, controlling the clock. In which case, Ari can counter with E.Smith - used to running on artificial surfaces - and the two teams will play a ball control/field position game and this total won't reach 40.

I have to believe Martz is lying. There are few secondaries in the NFL that are as bad as Arizona, especially an Arizona team on the road. Detroit threw the ball all over the field on them for crying out loud. To come out running the ball with a backfield that is beat up makes absolutely no sense at all. The time to do that was three weeks ago with M.Faulk, but Martz didn't learn from last year and didn't do it then, so why would I expect him to make sense now? Who knows. He has to see the mismatch with his passing game and the Ari secondary and he has to know that Ari's passing O, while it can be successful against StL pass D, isn't tailored for that type of coverage.

I'm going to lay off of this one, leaving me at 4 plays for the weekend. For fun though, and not counting against my record, I'm going to call Martz's bluff and say he's going to throw the ball around a bit.

Pick:
StL 31
Ari 20 - O 44.5

 

[chuckdman]

Excellent

Excellent

Write ups!!! A lot of good picks with a great explaination. I have to say I need to look at Washington now because of this depletted line I read in the last 2 threads. Washington fell behind the last 2 games in the 1st half but I'm sure the coach will try to address that.

The rest look great.. but still looking at the Arizona over 44.5 pick seems like a lot. Running the ball is very important unless your getting it handed it to you early in the game at which point you must abandon the run. Do believe that Martz is a fool but he has to run the ball, at least 20 times I would hope.

Other than that.. love the card. GL, get to the positive side!!

 

[RipIt3]

Playing...

Playing...

these games. Good luck to all.

2*
Was -2.5

1*
Car -6
Cin +6
Dal +3
Cin U41

 

[n2boca]

Great Write ups. They cover all the bases. I think Im going to have to coat tail you on a majority of these picks. Good luck to you and lets make some $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[RipIt3]

Perfect Early!

Perfect Early!

I needed a turn-around and so far so good. Let's keep rolling!

2*
Was -2.5 - Win

1*
Cin +6 - Win
Cin U41 - Win
Car -6
Dal +3

 

[RipIt3]

Cha-Ching!!!

Cha-Ching!!!

2*
Was -2.5 - Win

1*
Cin +6 - Win
Cin U41 - Win
Car -6 - Win
Dal +3 - Win

PERFECT DAY! WHOO-HOO!

I needed that. Season record goes to 9-9 I believe, I'll have to check. Still down a couple of units overall, but I'm on my way back.

Laying off tonight's game. Good luck to everyone playing it!