Wow, I'm getting my ass kicked this season. Unbelievable. Can't buy a win. Getting an early start on Week 4. These are early leans again, they didn't do so hot last week, but we'll try it again. Maybe I can pick the right ones this time...
3*
Was -2.5 By a hair over NE. Rank just better than NE on offense and match up well on D.
KC -3 Going to be a whole lot of running in this one and KC's been tougher against the run than Bal.
Ind -2 Indy is better ranked in everything except offensive pass - go figure - look for that to change after this game as NO pass D is one of the worst in the league.
2*
Pit -3 This one's going to be close, I probably won't play it. Tennessee has one of the best D's in the league and about the only thing Pitts been able to do is pass, which is prolly what I'll end up doing on this game.
Cin +6 Love Cincy here. Cleveland's coming off a big win and the difference in this game is going to come down to Cincy's ability to run the ball. Both teams boast surprisingly strong D's against the pass, but Cincy's offense (weak as it may be) might be too well balanced (if Dillon's healthy) for Cle to cover almost a TD.
GB -4 Despite GB melt-down against Ari, I'm leaning towards the Green & Gold here. Favre loves MNF and is an absolute Bear Killer. If GB can score early, it will be a long night for Chicago's home opener.
1*
Phi +3 McNabb is too good to play this poorly all year and Philly has to establish a running game sometime. No better time than this week against Buffalo who have a mediocre Run D. Philly has a huge advantage on the ground while Buffalo, right now, has a big advantage in the air - if the Eagles utilize their ground game, they can win this game outright.
Car -6 At first glance, this did look big. But think about this: Carolina's 4th ranked rushing O is going up against Atlanta's 26th ranked rushing D. Atlanta has no advantage anywhere else. Steven Davis will pound the ball and Carolina's D should hold down Atl just enough to cover.
Ari +10.5 Ari has a better ranked Pass O, Pass D, Rush O, Rush D and is getting 10.5 points. St. Louis is horrible defending the pass, where Ari has been throwing the ball like crazy. Look for a high scoring game and for Ari to cover with the hook.
Hou +3 I'll prolly lay off this game. Houston is dangerous as a home dog against a division rival. Not sure what to expect with this one - depends on which team shows up for both clubs.
SD +7 These teams defenses are very similar and as we saw last night, Oak is having a hard time doing anything with the ball. SD has too good of an offensive club to stay quiet for too long. LT will have a big day as the Chargers cover.
Dal +3 Dallas can cover this game on the ground against one of the leagues worst run defenses. Despite watching Carter put up impressive numbers through the air, the Cowboys have been running the ball with some success as well. Things don't get easier here for the Jets as the Cowboys will have ample opportunity with a huge advantage in the running game.
Some totals I'm looking at:
Ari @ StL O 44.5 - not much pass D in this one
Phi @ Buf U 41
SF @ Min O depending on line - see Ari @ StL
Ind @ NO U 42.5 - Ind pass will be difference, if they get up early, this game should stay under
Cin @ Cle U 41.5 - both teams possess good pass D's. Expect Cin to try to grind it out and run the clock on the road.
3*
Was -2.5 By a hair over NE. Rank just better than NE on offense and match up well on D.
KC -3 Going to be a whole lot of running in this one and KC's been tougher against the run than Bal.
Ind -2 Indy is better ranked in everything except offensive pass - go figure - look for that to change after this game as NO pass D is one of the worst in the league.
2*
Pit -3 This one's going to be close, I probably won't play it. Tennessee has one of the best D's in the league and about the only thing Pitts been able to do is pass, which is prolly what I'll end up doing on this game.
Cin +6 Love Cincy here. Cleveland's coming off a big win and the difference in this game is going to come down to Cincy's ability to run the ball. Both teams boast surprisingly strong D's against the pass, but Cincy's offense (weak as it may be) might be too well balanced (if Dillon's healthy) for Cle to cover almost a TD.
GB -4 Despite GB melt-down against Ari, I'm leaning towards the Green & Gold here. Favre loves MNF and is an absolute Bear Killer. If GB can score early, it will be a long night for Chicago's home opener.
1*
Phi +3 McNabb is too good to play this poorly all year and Philly has to establish a running game sometime. No better time than this week against Buffalo who have a mediocre Run D. Philly has a huge advantage on the ground while Buffalo, right now, has a big advantage in the air - if the Eagles utilize their ground game, they can win this game outright.
Car -6 At first glance, this did look big. But think about this: Carolina's 4th ranked rushing O is going up against Atlanta's 26th ranked rushing D. Atlanta has no advantage anywhere else. Steven Davis will pound the ball and Carolina's D should hold down Atl just enough to cover.
Ari +10.5 Ari has a better ranked Pass O, Pass D, Rush O, Rush D and is getting 10.5 points. St. Louis is horrible defending the pass, where Ari has been throwing the ball like crazy. Look for a high scoring game and for Ari to cover with the hook.
Hou +3 I'll prolly lay off this game. Houston is dangerous as a home dog against a division rival. Not sure what to expect with this one - depends on which team shows up for both clubs.
SD +7 These teams defenses are very similar and as we saw last night, Oak is having a hard time doing anything with the ball. SD has too good of an offensive club to stay quiet for too long. LT will have a big day as the Chargers cover.
Dal +3 Dallas can cover this game on the ground against one of the leagues worst run defenses. Despite watching Carter put up impressive numbers through the air, the Cowboys have been running the ball with some success as well. Things don't get easier here for the Jets as the Cowboys will have ample opportunity with a huge advantage in the running game.
Some totals I'm looking at:
Ari @ StL O 44.5 - not much pass D in this one
Phi @ Buf U 41
SF @ Min O depending on line - see Ari @ StL
Ind @ NO U 42.5 - Ind pass will be difference, if they get up early, this game should stay under
Cin @ Cle U 41.5 - both teams possess good pass D's. Expect Cin to try to grind it out and run the clock on the road.
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