YTD: 19-18-2......sigh, cant believe I need to have a winning day to win money for the first month of the season. Had a nice start going, but on a 10-15 run since two weeks ago today. But, I feel good about today. Heading up to Ann Arbor for the game and when I did that the first two weeks of the season, I did well. I hope that by not sitting around on my couch watching games all day, I wont keep adding games. Being at the game = keeping me out of trouble!! :142smilie
Quick post today with limited writeups:
OSU/Minny Over 47. Winner in OSU home games has averaged 35.5 ppg in the last 17 games. With Pyror more comfy and Beanie coming back, I see OSU's offense finally breaking out. Minny has some weapons and can score too. The Bucks D had toruble with OU and Troy, but Minny and Weber are better and get it into the end zone once or twice more than those guys. Winner will be score in the 30s, while the loser has an excellent shot at piercing the 20 mark. I like this Over.
UNC +7 over Miami. Despite last week's failure, I am staying on UNC as my sleeper team. Getting a TD here is an over reaction on how great the Canes looked last week, combined with the QB injury at UNC. With a week of practice, I think the Heels can play better with their #2 QB. Canes offense wont do much today. This game will be tight and decided in the final minutes.
UM +6 over Wisco. UM is 13-7 ATS in the last decade as an underdog. Throw the OSU games and UM's 1-4 ATS underdog mark in those games out of the equation, and the Wolverines are 12=3 ATS as a dog against all other comers. UM has been favored in this series by over a TD on average for the last decade or so. I like fading those kind of point spread reversals. Also, UM is in much better shape mentally and physically for this one than they were when they went into Madison last year. Hey, I'll be in attendance with money on the home team. What can go wrong?
Ole Miss +22.5 over Florida. SEC double digit dogs are 115-88-3 the last 10 years and, more importantly, 34-9-1 the last two years. I'll keep my seat on that train.
Miss St +24.5 over LSU. See above. And pray:00x11
Tenn +6.5 over Auburn. In general, dogs in SEC league games have been money makers over the last couple of seasons. Kinda took my lumps following that trend last week, but I will give it at least another stab for a week. I dont quite feel the anti Fulmer rage just yet, so at least if the Vols get crushed and take my money, then I can sing strong with my Orange Brothers.
Bama +6.5 over UGA. You could make a case that the winner tonight might be ranked #1 come Monday morning. Just about every first place vote is up for grabs this week and the Tide will collect many if thay have Clemson and UGA scalps on their resume. Not sure they can win, but last year's game went down to the wire and Saban has his team believing even more than they did back then that they belong in the game. Should be a barn burner and I cant wait to get home and watch this one. I'll take the points as I continue on with taking SEC dogs.
Illinois +14.5 over Penn State. The Juice is 7-1 ATS in his starts when catching points against a Big 10 team. He led his team to a win at OSU last year, so he can make enough plays to keep this one close. Lot of love for PSU now and their rout of Oregon State, but in Illinois, PSU will face a more talented and physical defensive front than its seen all year. This will be a rumble and in a game of big plays, PSU will do enough to win, but not enough to cover more than two TDs. This game will be decided by single digits.
Colorado +6 over FSU. The Noles are a mess and I dont think they can just show up and roll and reinvogorated Buffalo program. This game was tight last year, but CU did not have the horses to put points on the board. With new freshmen weapons in the backfield and an impoving QB, I think they go toe to toe with the reeling Noles. This is a nuetral site game, so the Buffs, while in the minorty, might have more fans than you would expect rooting them on in person in this one. Bottom line: I'll take a good Hawkins team catching points right now over a Bobby Bowden squad.
NCST +9.5 over USF. The Wolfpack are maligned, but saved their season last week with a win over ECU. No team is as battle tested as NCST, who has had a real tough slate to open the year. They wont be afraid of USF at all, especially playing in front of a juiced up home crowd like last week. The Pack are great at getting TOs and as good as Grothe is for USF at QB he is prone to big TO games. I think that rears its ugly head today as the Bulls and Pack play a nailbiter.
Good Luck today!! :weed:
Quick post today with limited writeups:
OSU/Minny Over 47. Winner in OSU home games has averaged 35.5 ppg in the last 17 games. With Pyror more comfy and Beanie coming back, I see OSU's offense finally breaking out. Minny has some weapons and can score too. The Bucks D had toruble with OU and Troy, but Minny and Weber are better and get it into the end zone once or twice more than those guys. Winner will be score in the 30s, while the loser has an excellent shot at piercing the 20 mark. I like this Over.
UNC +7 over Miami. Despite last week's failure, I am staying on UNC as my sleeper team. Getting a TD here is an over reaction on how great the Canes looked last week, combined with the QB injury at UNC. With a week of practice, I think the Heels can play better with their #2 QB. Canes offense wont do much today. This game will be tight and decided in the final minutes.
UM +6 over Wisco. UM is 13-7 ATS in the last decade as an underdog. Throw the OSU games and UM's 1-4 ATS underdog mark in those games out of the equation, and the Wolverines are 12=3 ATS as a dog against all other comers. UM has been favored in this series by over a TD on average for the last decade or so. I like fading those kind of point spread reversals. Also, UM is in much better shape mentally and physically for this one than they were when they went into Madison last year. Hey, I'll be in attendance with money on the home team. What can go wrong?
Ole Miss +22.5 over Florida. SEC double digit dogs are 115-88-3 the last 10 years and, more importantly, 34-9-1 the last two years. I'll keep my seat on that train.
Miss St +24.5 over LSU. See above. And pray:00x11
Tenn +6.5 over Auburn. In general, dogs in SEC league games have been money makers over the last couple of seasons. Kinda took my lumps following that trend last week, but I will give it at least another stab for a week. I dont quite feel the anti Fulmer rage just yet, so at least if the Vols get crushed and take my money, then I can sing strong with my Orange Brothers.
Bama +6.5 over UGA. You could make a case that the winner tonight might be ranked #1 come Monday morning. Just about every first place vote is up for grabs this week and the Tide will collect many if thay have Clemson and UGA scalps on their resume. Not sure they can win, but last year's game went down to the wire and Saban has his team believing even more than they did back then that they belong in the game. Should be a barn burner and I cant wait to get home and watch this one. I'll take the points as I continue on with taking SEC dogs.
Illinois +14.5 over Penn State. The Juice is 7-1 ATS in his starts when catching points against a Big 10 team. He led his team to a win at OSU last year, so he can make enough plays to keep this one close. Lot of love for PSU now and their rout of Oregon State, but in Illinois, PSU will face a more talented and physical defensive front than its seen all year. This will be a rumble and in a game of big plays, PSU will do enough to win, but not enough to cover more than two TDs. This game will be decided by single digits.
Colorado +6 over FSU. The Noles are a mess and I dont think they can just show up and roll and reinvogorated Buffalo program. This game was tight last year, but CU did not have the horses to put points on the board. With new freshmen weapons in the backfield and an impoving QB, I think they go toe to toe with the reeling Noles. This is a nuetral site game, so the Buffs, while in the minorty, might have more fans than you would expect rooting them on in person in this one. Bottom line: I'll take a good Hawkins team catching points right now over a Bobby Bowden squad.
NCST +9.5 over USF. The Wolfpack are maligned, but saved their season last week with a win over ECU. No team is as battle tested as NCST, who has had a real tough slate to open the year. They wont be afraid of USF at all, especially playing in front of a juiced up home crowd like last week. The Pack are great at getting TOs and as good as Grothe is for USF at QB he is prone to big TO games. I think that rears its ugly head today as the Bulls and Pack play a nailbiter.
Good Luck today!! :weed:
