Week 5 Sharp Plays

[Senor Capper]

Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 5!







(Rotation #454) Tennessee -2.5 ? This is really an ugly game. The general public has been backing the Browns this week, but we guess this has more to do with the fact that the Titans have progressively looked more and more like a dumpster fire as the weeks have gone on. That said, this isn't an impossible game for the hosts, and the oddsmakers probably have it right to make them short favorites. Cleveland has been much better, but it isn't good enough to be favored on the road against what is perceived to be a comparable team quite yet. A win in this game is very possible, but we still think that the odds are spot on that the Titans are in the better spot.

Opening Line: Tennessee pk
Current Line: Tennessee -2.5 NOW: CLE -1,0
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Cleveland




(Rotation #455) St. Louis Rams +7 ? Obviously, 71 percent of the people who have bet on this Eagles/Rams game didn't watch the Eagles try to move the ball last week behind what seems to be the worst offensive line in football. Philly was killed up front by the 49ers in Santa Clara, and it showed. Sure, the Eagles put 21 points on the board, but they aren't going to be able to account for three non-offensive touchdowns every single week. Now, St. Louis is coming to town off of its bye, with a fresh take in life at the quarterback position with QB Austin Davis being named the starter for the rest of the year. More importantly, the Rams have one of the best front sevens in the NFL, and they are going to stay aggressive with their blitz packages to test that Philly O-Line. This is a dangerous, dangerous game for the Eagles.


Opening Line: St. Louis +7.5
Current Line: St. Louis +4.5
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on Philadelphia





(Rotation #473) New York +6.5 ? Someone knows something that we don't know in this game. The Jets opened up at +7 and have dipped to +6.5 in spite of the fact that 70 percent of the bets are on the Chargers. If nothing else, the law of averages has to kick in at some point. The Chargers are one of the three teams in the NFL to have not suffered an ATS loss this year, while the Jets are one of the three teams in the NFL to not cover a game. QB Geno Smith has been awful, but for our money, he hasn't been nearly as bad as his stats suggest. On top of that, the Jets are going to be able to shut down the San Diego rushing game, the worst in the NFL, and that will make QB Philip Rivers completely one-dimensional. That's what Head Coach Rex Ryan thrives off of.


Opening Line: New York +7
Current Line: New York +6.5
Public Betting Percentage: 70% on San Diego

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 5!







(Rotation #454) Tennessee -2.5 ? This is really an ugly game. The general public has been backing the Browns this week, but we guess this has more to do with the fact that the Titans have progressively looked more and more like a dumpster fire as the weeks have gone on. That said, this isn't an impossible game for the hosts, and the oddsmakers probably have it right to make them short favorites. Cleveland has been much better, but it isn't good enough to be favored on the road against what is perceived to be a comparable team quite yet. A win in this game is very possible, but we still think that the odds are spot on that the Titans are in the better spot.

Opening Line: Tennessee pk
Current Line: Tennessee -2.5 NOW: CLE -1,0
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Cleveland




(Rotation #455) St. Louis Rams +7 ? Obviously, 71 percent of the people who have bet on this Eagles/Rams game didn't watch the Eagles try to move the ball last week behind what seems to be the worst offensive line in football. Philly was killed up front by the 49ers in Santa Clara, and it showed. Sure, the Eagles put 21 points on the board, but they aren't going to be able to account for three non-offensive touchdowns every single week. Now, St. Louis is coming to town off of its bye, with a fresh take in life at the quarterback position with QB Austin Davis being named the starter for the rest of the year. More importantly, the Rams have one of the best front sevens in the NFL, and they are going to stay aggressive with their blitz packages to test that Philly O-Line. This is a dangerous, dangerous game for the Eagles.


Opening Line: St. Louis +7.5
Current Line: St. Louis +4.5
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on Philadelphia





(Rotation #473) New York +6.5 ? Someone knows something that we don't know in this game. The Jets opened up at +7 and have dipped to +6.5 in spite of the fact that 70 percent of the bets are on the Chargers. If nothing else, the law of averages has to kick in at some point. The Chargers are one of the three teams in the NFL to have not suffered an ATS loss this year, while the Jets are one of the three teams in the NFL to not cover a game. QB Geno Smith has been awful, but for our money, he hasn't been nearly as bad as his stats suggest. On top of that, the Jets are going to be able to shut down the San Diego rushing game, the worst in the NFL, and that will make QB Philip Rivers completely one-dimensional. That's what Head Coach Rex Ryan thrives off of.


Opening Line: New York +7
Current Line: New York +6.5
Public Betting Percentage: 70% on San Diego

Love the fact Browns had a week off and Hoyer starting, RBs starting to get into a groove and Titans with new HC Whisenhunt has been a HC before and OC, etc. Strength of schedule edge to Browns.

Love the Fact the Eagles got exposed with an OL with boo-boos, today they get back Lane Johnson and are a week healthier. Their special teams and D carried them last week and if not for a bone head coaching decision with 3rd and 1, Eagles possibly could have beat a healthier SF 49ers team on the road. Rams had a bye week? That's nice!! They have a good front 7? That's nice!! Eagles at home have been down twice at the half and the 2nd half they have ignited. They ignited because they have more than just pure talent on this team. I love that the line dropped to -4 1/2 as I have the Eagles winning this game by 6-9 pts with my error margin in there. I'm a homer too, cuz the Eagles are my fav team in the NFL since 1970. This will be a nice cool day in Philly at the Frank and should end up something like 31-23 Eagles.

Jets? Line drop? WOW!! Could it be that SD has bounced back and forth from the east to west coast and are off a semi-blowout win vs the worst D in the NFL LW in the Jags? Jets "D" is just a tad bit better than what anyone is giving them credit for and also Rivers has a bit of trouble throwing deep which the Jets will challenge him to do with their front 7. Key here will be if Geno can back up his talk and wanna be team "Leader" and walk the talk today! I have this as a 3 pt game from pk to 3, Jets 27 SD 24.

Thanks for the info Senor!! :0008

 

[barmeezee]

st louis definitely confirmed as Billy the other one not sure if he is on Buff or not

 

[edludes]

I watched that San Diego jets line w the loaded jets juice and could not for the life of me figure out how THAT was going to happen. It looked like 31-0 to most anyone w eyes, but the books made everyone think something was up w that game by the clever way they screwed w the juice. The jets never had a chance. Same thing w Wash Seattle today, Washington was the sharp play according to the juice. I'll admit I lost a couple of units on wash but I'm not going to complain because the refs helped so much to get it that far w the amount of penalties they called on Seattle calling back 3 tds. But the fact is Seattle covered, like it or not, and u coulda bet the world champs at reduced juice most places this week. Fuck that slanted juice. It's used to manipulate players in thinking a trash team is somehow a gift. I'm playing Miami plus 4-130, under 49- gbay/ miami, Oakland plus 7-, Phila-2-, under 50 phila/nyg.

 

[Senor Capper]

Don't blame you Edludes.



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NFL: Sharps vs. Public



"Sharps" and the public collided on Sunday. In many cases, both won.

If you got in on the Rams early, they bailed you out down the stretch with a miraculous late run. If you waited closer to kickoff, you could've gotten the Eagles laying as little as four points, then sweated out that final drive with those looking on in horror at the Linc. Holding your breath as Austin Davis heaves repeatedly carved up the Philly secondary.


Even as a winner, it was one of those games where you felt that you needed a shower afterward. The Eagles didn't play well and still led 34-7.

"Sharps" everywhere were looking for anything sharp to poke their eyes out. That a Chip Kelly team covered for only some against a kid making his second career road start was striking considering they had him buried. DeMeco Ryans got hurt and Mychal Kendricks was out, but Philadelphia's defense struggling against a passing game that is still gaining traction screamed of a major mental letdown, not a physical one.




"Sharps" and the public collided on Monday. It was agonizing, but the lowly public won.


There were multiple schools of thought on it, from fading the team traveling cross-country, especially with as much as 7.5-to-8 points as an enticement, to simply going Legion of Boom against Kirk Cousins and hoping for carnage. After all, Cousins was reckless in his last outing and fed the Giants rout, so another primetime showcase could yield another implosion.

Both strategies had their merit, but "sharps" sat down and to feast on fading the public and getting points, only to be foiled when Russell Wilson's tremendous play down the stretch wrapped up what should've been a far more lopsided outcome if not for all the touchdowns called back on flags for inconsequential infractions that typically go unpunished.

If you're crying about Steven Hauschka's late field goal delivering the double-digit lead Seattle commanded with its play over 60 minutes, I wouldn't offer you a tissue.

We're just very glad it went Undah 46. :0074




Week 5 saw heavy sharp play on Kansas City knock the 49ers back from 7.5-to-4.5 point favorites, resulting in splits and an abundance of pushes when the 49ers settled for a field goal instead of getting into the end zone and Alex Smith's conquering hero drive ended with an interception.

We cashed in with -4.0 :0074



Buffalo's win in Detroit ended with Jim Schwartz on the shoulders of Bills players, but you all know the kicker lost that game. Alex Henery going 0-for-3 not only resulted in a loss that could haunt the Lions in December, it killed the cover that closed at 4.5, too.



The Lions' injuries obviously played a huge role in blowing a 14-0 deficit, but I wonder how sharp bettors felt for most of the afternoon, watching Kyle Orton struggle on the road while getting blanked by an underrated defense.

The lesson here?

It's okay to be on the public side if you're backing a winner.

If you're chasing waterfalls for the sake of taking points or simply to go against the grain, that doesn't seem very astute at all.

It's great to say that Vegas doesn't have all those pretty buildings up because they lose more than they win, but that's a dangerous game to play with your funds at stake.



Sharp? Public?

Seems a little snobby to me. Right and wrong are the only sides that count. Looking at line moves and what percentage of bets are coming in on sides and totals is part of most of our routines when looking at games, but I wouldn't fade the public just because. Be careful with that.

 

[gardenweasel]

Don't blame you Edludes.



---------------------------

NFL: Sharps vs. Public




The lesson here?

It's okay to be on the public side if you're backing a winner.

If you're chasing waterfalls for the sake of taking points or simply to go against the grain, that doesn't seem very astute at all.

It's great to say that Vegas doesn't have all those pretty buildings up because they lose more than they win, but that's a dangerous game to play with your funds at stake.



Sharp? Public?

Seems a little snobby to me. Right and wrong are the only sides that count. Looking at line moves and what percentage of bets are coming in on sides and totals is part of most of our routines when looking at games, but I wouldn't fade the public just because. Be careful with that.

well said.......