Jacksonville +3 +107, 6 units
Miami will be a huge public play this week. I think this is a good letdown spot for them coming off of wins against the Giants, Bills,and Jets. Miami's OL is a little banged up which may mean trouble against what I think is one of the best DL's in the NFL with Douglas, Brackens, Stroud, and Henderson. Miami's offense struggled last week despite the fact they put up 23 points. They had just 285 yards, 68 of which was on a reverse for a TD, and Williams had just 39 yards on 22 carries. I think they may have some problems against a solid Jaguars defense that is allowing just 83 rush ypg and 3.0 ypr while facing the likes of Davis, James, Tomlinson, and Henry. I really like the way the Jacksonville offense is playing with Leftwich. They have a balanced attack with Taylor and Smith who had a big game in his return. I don't see Miami putting up a lot of points and think Jacksonville can hit a few big plays as Leftwich has been doing a nice job throwing down field. Think the Jags pull the upset at home.
Cleveland -3 -116, 3 units
No reason to think Oakland will turn it around this week. They continue to struggle and have a number of injuries on both sides of the ball with 10 or 11 players that normally play either doubtful or questionable. Oakland still isn't moving the ball despite a mediocre schedule. Browns playing well right now and found a running game at Pitt last week. Oakland has struggled to stop the run allowing 163 rush ypg so Green could have a big day. Couch playing great at QB and the WRs should have no problems with this secondary. Browns' pass defense has been excellent allowing just 161 pass ypg and 5.1 ypa which are outstanding numbers considering the fact they have faced Indy, SF, and Pitt which are three good passing offenses. They should do well against a struggling Oakland offense. Browns to win easy at home.
Kansas City under 48 -120 bought a 1/2 point, 3 units
Lost my big play of the week on the KC under last week by 1/2 a point as Hall does it again. Hopefully Green Bay has learned from other's mistakes and will kick it away from him. Both defenses are playing really well allowing just 16 and 18 ppg. KC's offense hasn't been playing too well the last couple of weeks putting up just 10 and 17 points before Hall made those punt returns at the end of each. I look for Green Bay's scoring to go down as this is the 1st decent defense they have faced since Minnesota who shut them down until allowing some late scores. They played Detroit, Chicago, Arizona, and Seattle in their other games all of which have extremely weak secondaries. I think Holmes and Green will be running a lot and look for both to get over 25 carries. Think this total is a little high so will go with the under.
Washington +3 +110, 2 units
TB coming off a very difficult loss in OT and has a short week with the Monday night game. They are probably still banged up. Alstott and Jurevicious are out on offense while CB Kelly is doubtful on defense. Kelly's absence could really hurt as Washington has 4 pretty good WRs. Think Washington will win this one at home so taking the dog.
Pitt +7 -110, 2 units
Pitt is still much better than their beating against the Browns. Looks like Beurelein will start and I think Pittsburgh can put some pressure on him as he has no mobility. This is by far the best passing offense Denver has faced and I think Pitt will move the ball pretty well. I expect a close game so going with Pitt and the points.
Jets +2.5 -110, 2 units
Haven't been impressed with the Bills' offense this year and losing Moulds, who is doubtful, won't help matters. I know the Jets are 0-4 but they have played a pretty tough schedule thus far and I think this is a good opportunity for their first win. Buffalo has really struggled to run the ball as Henry is getting just 2.7 ypr. Reed is not getting the job done and Bledsoe has just 5 TDs in 5 games while getting sacked 12 times. Jets have a fairly solid defense and I think they can hold the Bills down. I think where the Jets may have a big advantage is on special teams where they have Moss returning punts and Bates returning KOs, both of whom are very dangerous. Also I'm not too sure about Lindell who was pretty mediocre in Seattle so like the Jets' chances at home.
Baltimore over 37 -102, 2 units
Arizona's defense is about as bad as they get. Think Baltimore may actually put up around 24-30 points in this game. Should be a lot of throwing from Arizona as well so like the over. Ravens' defense may get tired in the heat so think Arizona can put up a few points.
Miami will be a huge public play this week. I think this is a good letdown spot for them coming off of wins against the Giants, Bills,and Jets. Miami's OL is a little banged up which may mean trouble against what I think is one of the best DL's in the NFL with Douglas, Brackens, Stroud, and Henderson. Miami's offense struggled last week despite the fact they put up 23 points. They had just 285 yards, 68 of which was on a reverse for a TD, and Williams had just 39 yards on 22 carries. I think they may have some problems against a solid Jaguars defense that is allowing just 83 rush ypg and 3.0 ypr while facing the likes of Davis, James, Tomlinson, and Henry. I really like the way the Jacksonville offense is playing with Leftwich. They have a balanced attack with Taylor and Smith who had a big game in his return. I don't see Miami putting up a lot of points and think Jacksonville can hit a few big plays as Leftwich has been doing a nice job throwing down field. Think the Jags pull the upset at home.
Cleveland -3 -116, 3 units
No reason to think Oakland will turn it around this week. They continue to struggle and have a number of injuries on both sides of the ball with 10 or 11 players that normally play either doubtful or questionable. Oakland still isn't moving the ball despite a mediocre schedule. Browns playing well right now and found a running game at Pitt last week. Oakland has struggled to stop the run allowing 163 rush ypg so Green could have a big day. Couch playing great at QB and the WRs should have no problems with this secondary. Browns' pass defense has been excellent allowing just 161 pass ypg and 5.1 ypa which are outstanding numbers considering the fact they have faced Indy, SF, and Pitt which are three good passing offenses. They should do well against a struggling Oakland offense. Browns to win easy at home.
Kansas City under 48 -120 bought a 1/2 point, 3 units
Lost my big play of the week on the KC under last week by 1/2 a point as Hall does it again. Hopefully Green Bay has learned from other's mistakes and will kick it away from him. Both defenses are playing really well allowing just 16 and 18 ppg. KC's offense hasn't been playing too well the last couple of weeks putting up just 10 and 17 points before Hall made those punt returns at the end of each. I look for Green Bay's scoring to go down as this is the 1st decent defense they have faced since Minnesota who shut them down until allowing some late scores. They played Detroit, Chicago, Arizona, and Seattle in their other games all of which have extremely weak secondaries. I think Holmes and Green will be running a lot and look for both to get over 25 carries. Think this total is a little high so will go with the under.
Washington +3 +110, 2 units
TB coming off a very difficult loss in OT and has a short week with the Monday night game. They are probably still banged up. Alstott and Jurevicious are out on offense while CB Kelly is doubtful on defense. Kelly's absence could really hurt as Washington has 4 pretty good WRs. Think Washington will win this one at home so taking the dog.
Pitt +7 -110, 2 units
Pitt is still much better than their beating against the Browns. Looks like Beurelein will start and I think Pittsburgh can put some pressure on him as he has no mobility. This is by far the best passing offense Denver has faced and I think Pitt will move the ball pretty well. I expect a close game so going with Pitt and the points.
Jets +2.5 -110, 2 units
Haven't been impressed with the Bills' offense this year and losing Moulds, who is doubtful, won't help matters. I know the Jets are 0-4 but they have played a pretty tough schedule thus far and I think this is a good opportunity for their first win. Buffalo has really struggled to run the ball as Henry is getting just 2.7 ypr. Reed is not getting the job done and Bledsoe has just 5 TDs in 5 games while getting sacked 12 times. Jets have a fairly solid defense and I think they can hold the Bills down. I think where the Jets may have a big advantage is on special teams where they have Moss returning punts and Bates returning KOs, both of whom are very dangerous. Also I'm not too sure about Lindell who was pretty mediocre in Seattle so like the Jets' chances at home.
Baltimore over 37 -102, 2 units
Arizona's defense is about as bad as they get. Think Baltimore may actually put up around 24-30 points in this game. Should be a lot of throwing from Arizona as well so like the over. Ravens' defense may get tired in the heat so think Arizona can put up a few points.
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