Week 7 (chalk) Prognostications

[BigSix]

Record:
ATS 14-13-2
O/U 4-3

Yes both of these plays are big time chalk but that has been the trend this year especially road Favs and I'm not yet ready to risk any money betting against this trend.


TB -3.5 (when I capped this game I figured the line to be -10)

TB's offense is not spectacular but it is effective.
Most of the starters on the left side of the SF offensive line are either injured or not playing, that does not bode well for Garcia.


KC -3.5 (when I capped this game I figured the line to be -6.5)

I'm not buying any of dat MNF Raiders BS, I said it last week and I'll say it again "Raiders are pathetic".



I've looked at 3 or 4 of consensus sites and both of these teams have been picked in the 70% or more range and yet the line does not move.

Is it that the odds makers are keeping the line where it is to make us second guess ourselves where we start with the over-analysis until we believe that SF or OAK could have a good chance of winning?

Or perhaps there is more than meets the eye in these games and there are huge sums of money bet on the 2 dogs.

I'm intrigued to see the outcome of both of these games. I think, for me, there may be some good lessons to be learned.


Whatever side you take..........

 

[GM]

Hey B6,

I sure wouldn't have TB handicapped as a 10 pt road favorite. That's just crazy. Yes, they are much stronger, but I would not lay 10 here. That's like saying they'd be a 16-pt home favorite. SF is not good, but 10+ pt road favorites are very rare. We haven't had one yet this year. In fact, I just looked this up and couldn't believe it... Did you know the largest road favorites we've had for the entire season are just a -7? (GB @ Ariz) and a -7 (KC @ Hou)? That's it.

In all of 2002 there was just one road team favored by 10 or more (and it was a 10?). In '01 there were 3; in '00 there were 7. Most of those however were against crappy Browns or Texans expansion teams.

As for my thoughts about the line not moving.... If they moved the line, then that might discourage some people from betting on the favorite. Apparently they don't want to do that.

I can't give you any real concrete reasons why SF or Oak should cover...but I'd say it's likely that one of them at least probably will. Though I doubt I'll have the balls to bet either dog in these games....

 

[BigSix]

Thanx for the info GM.

I wouldn't lay 10 either but that's the only way I'd take SF in this situation.

When I look at TB's record this year, all wins have been on the road and by at LEAST 17 points!

 

[n2boca]

Love the tampa pick, as they seem to be the more solid of the picks, but the chiefs game, as much as I like- i will stay away for the mere reason that their last 3 games have been very hard fought, 2 tough road wins and IMO are due for a letdown. Just my 2 cents