Week 8 Early Leans (62-30-1 Weeks 4-7 - Posted)

[RipIt3]

Ok, this one's for real...

Here they are for week 8. First I'll break down the record, posted here at MadJacks. I changed the way I cap starting in week 4, have had some real good success with the early leans and that's spilled over into my plays. I've been toying with the idea of playing the entire board, I think I'm going to wait until after this week, as there are a few games that caught my eye that I wasn't so sure about, but here's how it breaks down...

Posted
Week 4: 13-4 76.47%
Week 5: 11-8-1 57.89%
Week 6: 20-8 71.43%
Week 7: 18-10 64.29%

Total: 62-30-1 67.39%

Sides (on a 3*, 2*, 1* unit system):
36-17, +39.3 units

Totals (All worth 1*)
26-13 +11.7 units

This week...

3* (11-2 - 84.62% - record)
St Louis +1.5, U 46.5
Car +2, O 39.5
SF -6.5, U 41.5
Mia -3, U38

2* (11-6 - 64.71% - record)
NE -5.5, U 38
Chi -3, waiting for line
Min -5.5, U 44
KC -6, waiting for line

1* (14-9 - 60.87% - record)
Den +1.5, U 39
Cin +2, U 42
Jac +3.5, O 43.5
Dal +6.5, U 36.5
Hou +13, O 42.5
waiting on Phi/NYJ line

There they are. We'll see how they do again this week. I wasn't sure how they'd fare last week, but the sides went 8-6, +3.1 units - betting the board during, what I thought, was one of the tougher weeks to cap. Good luck this week. I'll have write-ups hopefully on a few games later in the week.

 

[cameroncrazie]

Nice record Ripit3. Why not just stick to your 3* as they have been kicking ass? No need to bet the whole board. Although, you still have been making money on even the 1* so as long as your luck holds up maybe you should hit the whole board. I will be checking out your threads from now on to see if your hot streak continues. Good luck on Sunday.

 

[RipIt3]

Cameron...

I tell myself every week I'm going to play all 3* games and that I should play them at 3*, but this is still a new way of looking at things for me, so I'm kind of leary about it. There have been a few 3* games in the past few weeks that I wasn't so sure about. For example: Cin +6 against Cle in Week 4 and Den +3.5 against KC in Week 5 just to name a couple. It pulls some weird games, but they've been working out. I'm still just hesitant with it. If it keeps up this week, combined with its performance last week in what I thought was a pretty tough week to cap, I'll start trusting it more.

I have a hard time differentiating within the groups. Take all 3* games. If I were to just play those games, I'm not going to play all of them at 3 units. I'll split them up. But then which do I make 3*, 2* and 1*? This is what I've been doing for the past few weeks, and while I've been winning and making a profit, I'm not hitting the 2* like I would want to be. Since Week 4, I'm 3-2 in 2* games, but I'm 7-3 in 1* games. Not the way I would want the percentages to be falling.

So far, the early leans have produced a profit, +51 units in 4 weeks, but that's playing the board on early leans. I've been picking amongst the 3* and 2* early leans (with an occasional 1*) for my plays and my record during that time is 13-5, +14.3 units. So I'm showing a decent profit with limiting the risk. However, if the way I'm looking at them keeps up and I decide to play the board, I gain some advantages. If the 3* or 2* picks don't do so hot one week, I won't take too bad of a hit because of coverage with 1* and totals, and vice-versa. It just depends on how much faith I have in what I'm doing.

I just know that the week I decide to play the board of 3* games for 3*, they're going to bomb out - it's just the way things work. So I keep putting it off and they keep hitting. At some point, I'm going to have to make that step and if the 2*'s and 1*'s keep playing like they have been, it may reduce risk to play all of them, even though it may not appear so on the surface.

That was really long-winded. Sorry...

Here's the rest of the early leans for this week:

NYJ +3.5, U 37
Chi U 37.5
KC U 44

That's all the games now for Week 8. Good luck to you cameron, hopefully this week will be good to us both!

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

gl, i'll be watching you.

 

[ajoytoy]

impressive....bol on the plays!


toy

 

[RipIt3]

Thanks for the well-wishes guys - I need 'em...

NFL capping is tough. I gave up last year after a few weeks, just an endless headache trying to make sense of everything. This year I began floundering again, going 3-8 in Week 3. Instead of quitting this time, I regrouped and tried to figure out what I was doing wrong. Hopefully things will continue to go well.

I think this is going to be a very good test for me - hopefully things will turn out well. I haven't had a losing week since restarting in Week 4 - knock on wood - let's keep rolling...

Again, thanks for words of encouragement and best to luck to both of you. I remember reading your posts last year Toronto - especially in pucks. I got in a little fast and was a bit over my head. Hopefully I've slowed things down enough now to where I can see where I'm headed. Good luck to you guys and I'll see you when the dust clears on Monday...

 

[RipIt3]

These are the plays that I'm looking at putting plays on. I've already played the Denver U 39. Still looking at the others.

3*
SF -6.5
Mia -3

2*
NE -5.5
Den U 39

1*
St Louis U 46.5
NE U 38
Car O 39

 

[RipIt3]

Ok, here are my plays for this week...

3*
Mia -3
St. Louis +1.5

2*
Den U 39

1*
SF -6.5
St Louis U 46.5
NE U 38
Car O 39

This is the most games I've played since Week 3 when I had my arse handed to me. We'll see what happens...

Good luck to you all this week!

 

[MrChristo]

Can't see anything wrong with those, RipIt3.

No arse-handings this week

 

[motley plays]

these sound motley to me

Den - un 38

CAR -ov 39

Mia - 3

tease me please plays for Motley

Good luck bro

 

[RipIt3]

adding one...

adding one...

3*
Ten -4

Good luck to you today too Motley - let's take 'em to the bank!

 

[RipIt3]

adding...

adding...

3*
Sea -3

 

[RipIt3]

Week 8 Early Leans Records

Week 8 Early Leans Records

3* (11-2 - 84.62% - record)
St Louis +1.5, U 46.5 W - L
Car +2, O 39.5 W - W
SF -6.5, U 41.5 L - W
Mia -3, U38 pending

2* (11-6 - 64.71% - record)
NE -5.5, U 38 L - W
Chi -3, U 37.5 W - L
Min -5.5, U 44 L - L
KC -6, U 44 W - W

1* (14-9 - 60.87% - record)
Den +1.5, U 39 L - W
Cin +2, U 42 W - L
Jac +3.5, O 43.5 L - W
Dal +6.5, U 36.5 L - W
Hou +13, O 42.5 W - W
NYJ +3.5, U 37.5 L - L

3*
2-1 with one pending

2*
2-2

1*
2-4

Totals:
8-5

Overall:
14-12

Overall a winning week ... barely. +2.4 units if I had played the entire early leans board...

Worst week to date for the early leans. A lot of intangibles went into the games this week. I'll post my play records here shortly...

 

[RipIt3]

My Play Records...

My Play Records...

3* 2-1
Mia -3 - not sure what's going on with this one yet...
St. L +1.5 - W
Ten -4 - W
Sea -3 - L damn seahags

2* 1-0
Den U 39 - W

1* 2-2
SF -6.5 - L a stupid bet :shrug:
St. L U 46.5 - L
NE U 38 - W
Car O 39 - W

Overall:
5-3, +4.5 units

Will have to look into the Miami game. Another plus week. Five in a row, although I prolly just jinxed myself for next week.

Season:
Weeks 1-8: 22-16 (57.89%), +14 units
Weeks 4-8: 18-8 (69.23%), + 22.1 units (I blew up week three going 3-7)

I'll be back later when I figure out what's going on with Miami.

Good luck - hope you all had a good Sunday

Motley - thanks for the play on Ten. I was thinking about playing them and saw your post, so I hit it hard. Thanks! Good luck to you tomorrow night if you play...

 

[RipIt3]

Mia/SD

Mia/SD

5-3, +4.5 units yesterday

I've been going pretty well lately, 18-8 +22.1 units since my week 3 blow-up.

If there's one thing I've learned, you've gotta let the winning ride itself out. Hit it hard when it's going good.

This game tonight is absolutely blowing my mind. SD hasn't played a good team since Den and KC in the first two weeks of the season. They beat a struggling Cle team - with QB woes like no other - last week, but that proves absolutely nothing, Cleveland doesn't have the defense, nor the rushing attack that Miami has. Now factor in the fact that they lose a home game because of an absolutely tragic event that's taking place in their hometown. This isn't a championship team. Championship teams rise to these types of challenges. SD, who deserves every bit of their 1-5 record, has obstacles to overcome like no-other.

Books aren't craving SD action, I don't think. To travel from Miami all the way to SD to play football implicates home field advantage factors. When SD lost that home field advantage, the lines adjusted accordingly. 6-6.5 is very reasonable and is where people felt the line should be at...

So why is this game blowing my mind?

Because I've seen everybody and their mother jump all over SD. I've seen people change their original picks and put tons of units on the 'Bolts. I don't understand it. There is no other reason than this is the NFL that SD should cover this game. None. They are overmatched in every aspect.

Miaimi's rush D is the best in the league - do you think Tomlinson's going to just run all over them?

SD, on the other hand, is giving up 137.5 yards per game on the ground. Don't see that trend stopping against a Ricky Williams attack...

SD's also in the bottom five passing defenses - what better time to spark an offense than to have a change of QB against a poor passing team?

And while Miami may give up a lot of yards in the air, those yards don't hurt them nearly as bad. Miami's Defensive QB Rating Against: 69.1. SD's: 92.4.

I'll tell you how this game is going to go...

Miami's going to come out throwing. Big time. They're going to take it to SD. They'll be up by more than 2 TD's by half time. They're going to try to force SD to keep up with them, but SD doesn't have the fire power to do that and we all know what happens when they get behind and have to play catch up - they stop giving LT the ball. LT is going to have to carry the ball 32-37 times this game to give SD a shot, but he's not going to be able to do that because of time management.

This game will end up falling under one of Nolan's plays - the more than 15 at half, bet the under play. In the second half, Miami's going to be able to shove Ricky Williams down their throats - and guess what - SD's not going to be able to stop them.

Offensive and defensive lines - not even close. I hate Wannstedt - and that's about the only advantage SD has with Shottenheimer, and even that's arguable...

Let the winning ride out. My 3* early leans are 13-3 since week 3, not losing more than one game each of those weeks. This game fell on that 3* level, so I'm going to hit it hard and play it double. SD has nothing to play for...

Mia -6 for two 2* plays and one 1*, 5 total units
My biggest play year to date.

Go Phins!