PLAYBOOK / MARC LAWRENCE
5★ BEST BET
WEST VIRGINIA over Texas Tech by 7[/B]
The Mountaineers showed the real strength of this fi eld with
their stunning upset of Oklahoma State (as 19.5-point dogs) in
the last game here ? where only two losses in the last 54 home
games have come by more than 5 points (think about for a
moment). Add to that the fact that WVU HC Dana Holgorsen is
4-0 ATS in his career off a loss in which his team allows less than
30 PPG and is facing a .700 or greater opponent. The revenge
factor is present as well, courtesy of the Red Raiders? 49-14 win
last season in Lubbock? as 3-point underdogs. Making matters
worse for rookie head coach Kliff Kingsbury, the Raiders? next
fi ve games ? Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Baylor
and Texas, the fi nal fi ve games of season ? are all TTRR revengers.
Meanwhile, Tech is 1-6 ATS coming off a SUATS win versus a
rested opponent. In addition, the Mounties are 4-1 ATS as home
dogs of more than 6 points and 9-3 ATS off a SU loss of more
than 21 points. An even closer look shows that the hillbillies?
FBS opponents stand 19-9 SU on the season while the Raiders?
FBS foes have gone just 10-17. So let?s see? rest, revenge and a
strong home-fi eld advantage all point to a West Virginia victory,
and with that we?ll fade Kingsbury?s kids in only their second
game of the season outside the state of Texas. If you?re still
not convinced, fl ip back to page 3 and check out this week?s
INCREDIBLE STAT for The Clincher.
4★ BEST BET
CLEMSON over Florida St by 10
This could be one of the season?s most exciting games, a battle
of unbeatens meeting in this ?COLLISION COURSE? clash (see
Marc?s BETCHA DIDN?T KNOW piece on page 2 for more on this).
And with Clemson coming in off a lethargic 10-point look-ahead
win over Boston College, and FSU whitewashing the Terps 63-0
before their bye week, everything fi ts like a glove. Add to that
the Noles? 1-8 ATS mark off a SU win of more than 35 points, their
1-6 ATS road record with rest, and Jimbo Fisher?s 1-4 SUATS record
on the road against .700 or better opponents, and you can see
we?re really building a case. As Freddie Mercury once sang, ?Don?t
stop me now, we?re havin? such a good time?? Okay, we?ll keep
going: Marc?s ?TAKE IT TO THE LIMIT? article in the 2013 Black
Book which warns us of the problems undefeated teams incur
when playing on the road with a week of rest, and his famous
?KICK IN THE ASSETS? treatise (from the 2007 Black Book)
outlines the failures of unbeaten road favorites off a SUATS win
when facing winning opponents. Toss in FSU?s ?5-0 Fat Cat? status
from last week?s SMART BOX and this looks like a literal visit to
Death Valley for the Seminoles. With the Tigers having covered
four straight in this series, we add The Clincher: Clemson is 6-0
SUATS at home with Dabo Swinney versus ACC foes who
won 10 or more games last season.
3★ BEST BET
Army over TEMPLE by 8
The Cadets pounded the ground for 511 yards as they doubledup
Eastern Michigan in a 50-25 win last week. Army was led by
junior RB Terry Baggett, who rushed for a school-record 304 yards
on 18 attempts (16.9 YPR) and tallied 4 TDs, including a 96-yarder.
The Black Knights travel to Philly this week to take on a winless
Temple team that has covered the last fi ve meetings in this series,
including a 63-32 romp at West Point last season. Thanks in part
to that woodshed beating, the Owls have been installed as small
favorites. Unfortunately, Temple has been favored only twice
since last season, and promptly lost both games SU. Complicating
matters, this year?s Temple edition has been outgained in every
contest, making them a ?leaking oil? favorite. For clarifi cation, our
friendly neighborhood database notes that winless favorites who
were underdogs of 20 or more points in their last game are just 21-
41-1 ATS when playing off a double-digit loss. Ride Army?s ground
attack as they ?run for cover? and show no brotherly love at the
Link. The Clincher: teams with a record of less than .750 that
rushed for 500 or more yards in their last game are 19-2-1
ATS when facing an opponent off a loss of 3 or more points.
AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
PLAY AGAINST any 4-2 or greater home favorite of < 15 points off a loss that was preceded by their first loss of the season versus a .500 or greater conference foe that did not win its last game by > 10 points.
Play AGAINST:
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
ATS W-L Record Since 1985: 17-1-1 (94%)
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
The West Virginia Mountaineers are 21-3 SU at home with rest (losses by only 1, 3 and 4 points)
POWER PLAYS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
4.5* CENTRAL MICH 26 (+) NORTHERN ILLINOIS 37
4.5* OREGON ST 43 CALIFORNIA 24
4.5* BOISE ST 52 NEVADA 24
4* MICHIGAN ST 38 PURDUE 5
4* ARMY 29 TEMPLE 28
4* BALL ST 44 WESTERN MICH 19
4* WAKE FOREST 20 (if +7 or more) MARYLAND 24
4* TOLEDO 27 NAVY 16
4* COLORADO ST 33 (+) WYOMING 34
4* ALABAMA 43 ARKANSAS 3
4* STANFORD 32 UCLA 23
3* OHIO ST 37 IOWA 17
3* MISSOURI 24 (if +3 or more) FLORIDA 14
3* WISCONSIN 31 ILLINOIS 19
2* BUFFALO 31 UMASS 9
2* OKLAHOMA ST 32 TCU 23
1* DUKE 29 VIRGINIA 27
1* CINCINNATI 30 CONNECTICUT 14
COLL PP 65% L2W ? 4*?s 69% IN THAT SPAN!
COLL SIDE LPS 14-3 82% L3W!![/QUOTE]
Guaranteed Sports Picks
Today's CFB Free Pick: Oregon State -11 [/B
