Early bird NorthCoast - Central Flo -22 1/2
Marquee play this evening, 3* on over 46 NYG/Minnysoda
Marquee play this evening, 3* on over 46 NYG/Minnysoda
Week 9 CFB/Wk 8 NFL Tidbits
- Thread starter WildBillPicks7
- Start date
PLAYBOOK
Friday, Oct 25
Boise St 4-0 Weekday RG... 5-1 Game Eight... 10-3 as dogs 7 < pts... 1-3 aft Nevada... 1-3 vs non-conf revenge
BYU SERIES: 2-0 L2... 6-1 Weekdays... 1-5 home w/ revenge... 1-4 Game Eight... 2-8 as favs 7 < pts
Saturday, Oct 26
Clemson SERIES: 3-0 L3... 5-0 aft Fla St... 7-1 Game Eight... 6-1 as RF's 8 > pts... 5-2 away off BB HG
MARYLAND 1-4 dogs 9 > pts w/ conf revenge... 1-4-1 Game Eight... 1-3 in 1st of BB HG... 3-7 conf HD's 7 > pts
Duke 5-0 Game Eight... 7-2-1 in 2nd of BB RG... 8-3 bef NC State... 1-5 as conf dogs 13 > pts... 1-4 aft Virginia
VIRGINIA TECH SERIES: Host 4-0... 3-0 bef Bost Coll... 1-5 Game Eight... 1-4 aft allow 10 < pts... 1-4 favs > 3 pts in 3rd straight HG... 2-6 w/ rest
E Michigan 0-6 in 1st of BB RG... 0-5 aft Ohio U... 0-4-1 bef Toledo... 1-5 as RD's 31 > pts... 1-4-1 Game Eight
N ILLINOIS SERIES: 4-1 L5... 8-1 aft C Mich... 3-1 Game Eight... 1-6 as HF's 22 > pts
Vanderbilt 3-1 Game Eight... 3-1 aft Georgia... 0-3 as conf dogs 15 > pts... 2-12 away off 3+ HG
TEXAS A&M 6-1 Game Eight... 6-1 as conf favs 14 > pts... 1-3 favs in 2nd of 3+ HG
Tennessee 6-1 away off 3+ HG... 3-1 Game Eight... 3-1 aft S Carolina... 1-4 as dogs 17 > pts
ALABAMA SERIES: 6-1 L7... 4-0 bef LSU... 10-1 as conf favs 21 > pts... 6-1 Game Eight... 4-1 aft Arkansas
Friday, Oct 25
Boise St 4-0 Weekday RG... 5-1 Game Eight... 10-3 as dogs 7 < pts... 1-3 aft Nevada... 1-3 vs non-conf revenge
BYU SERIES: 2-0 L2... 6-1 Weekdays... 1-5 home w/ revenge... 1-4 Game Eight... 2-8 as favs 7 < pts
Saturday, Oct 26
Clemson SERIES: 3-0 L3... 5-0 aft Fla St... 7-1 Game Eight... 6-1 as RF's 8 > pts... 5-2 away off BB HG
MARYLAND 1-4 dogs 9 > pts w/ conf revenge... 1-4-1 Game Eight... 1-3 in 1st of BB HG... 3-7 conf HD's 7 > pts
Duke 5-0 Game Eight... 7-2-1 in 2nd of BB RG... 8-3 bef NC State... 1-5 as conf dogs 13 > pts... 1-4 aft Virginia
VIRGINIA TECH SERIES: Host 4-0... 3-0 bef Bost Coll... 1-5 Game Eight... 1-4 aft allow 10 < pts... 1-4 favs > 3 pts in 3rd straight HG... 2-6 w/ rest
E Michigan 0-6 in 1st of BB RG... 0-5 aft Ohio U... 0-4-1 bef Toledo... 1-5 as RD's 31 > pts... 1-4-1 Game Eight
N ILLINOIS SERIES: 4-1 L5... 8-1 aft C Mich... 3-1 Game Eight... 1-6 as HF's 22 > pts
Vanderbilt 3-1 Game Eight... 3-1 aft Georgia... 0-3 as conf dogs 15 > pts... 2-12 away off 3+ HG
TEXAS A&M 6-1 Game Eight... 6-1 as conf favs 14 > pts... 1-3 favs in 2nd of 3+ HG
Tennessee 6-1 away off 3+ HG... 3-1 Game Eight... 3-1 aft S Carolina... 1-4 as dogs 17 > pts
ALABAMA SERIES: 6-1 L7... 4-0 bef LSU... 10-1 as conf favs 21 > pts... 6-1 Game Eight... 4-1 aft Arkansas
Power Sweep - NorthCoast
4* Nebraska
3*SMU
3*Houston
2* Texas
2* Ohio St
Dog - Fla Atlantic +25
Tech play - Washington
Revenge - OHIO
Situational - Hawaii
NFL
4*New Orleans
3* New Eng
2* Pittsburgh
3*Dallas over
3*Jets under
3* Cleveland under
2*Washington Over
2* Atlanta Over
Angle plays, 2-0 LW, 5-7 TY, New Orleans & New England
4* Nebraska
3*SMU
3*Houston
2* Texas
2* Ohio St
Dog - Fla Atlantic +25
Tech play - Washington
Revenge - OHIO
Situational - Hawaii
NFL
4*New Orleans
3* New Eng
2* Pittsburgh
3*Dallas over
3*Jets under
3* Cleveland under
2*Washington Over
2* Atlanta Over
Angle plays, 2-0 LW, 5-7 TY, New Orleans & New England
RAS is done for College Football as they are now concentrating on College Hoops.
Here is their disclaimer for this year's College Basketball plays: "RAS College Basketball Service: First 10 weeks of season
Includes all side plays and priority delivery of second half plays during the most advantageous time of the season. No total plays will be offered."
Here is their disclaimer for this year's College Basketball plays: "RAS College Basketball Service: First 10 weeks of season
Includes all side plays and priority delivery of second half plays during the most advantageous time of the season. No total plays will be offered."
JOE GAVAZZI
CFB
LA Lafayette (-2-) at Arkansas St. 8:00 ET ESPN2
5* LA Lafayette (-2-)[/B]
Transition year for Ark St. under 1st year HC Harsin, former assistant at Texas and Boise St. Under outstanding coaches Freeze and Malzahn, Ark St. recorded consecutive 10-3 SU seasons L2Y with a 17-7 ATS mark. This year, the overpriced Wolves are just 3-3 SU, 1-4-1 ATS as 12 RS make adjustments to Harsin. We will pay a bit of a price to favor the visiting Cajuns who well remember an embarrassing 50-27 home loss to the Wolves in this very spot on the schedule last year. Under 3rd year HC Hudspeth, the Cajuns continue to point upward. In 2 years, Hudspeth is 18-8 SU, 16-8 ATS followed by a 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS beginning to 2013. That includes 4 consecutive wins after opening losses at Ark and Kansas St. Minor concern is that last week?s Tuesday night 37-20 victory against W. Kentucky was strongly influenced by a 14 point swing of a near 100 yard pick six. But the 200 Club status of LA Lafayette and the 39 PPG average operating behind QB Broadway, will prove to be a meaningful advantage against the Red Wolves defense allowing 30 PPG. Ark St. has failed to cover since an opening day win vs. Ark-Pine losing those spread decisions by a combined 48 points. Play the more settled team with momentum and revenge
CFB
LA Lafayette (-2-) at Arkansas St. 8:00 ET ESPN2
5* LA Lafayette (-2-)[/B]
Transition year for Ark St. under 1st year HC Harsin, former assistant at Texas and Boise St. Under outstanding coaches Freeze and Malzahn, Ark St. recorded consecutive 10-3 SU seasons L2Y with a 17-7 ATS mark. This year, the overpriced Wolves are just 3-3 SU, 1-4-1 ATS as 12 RS make adjustments to Harsin. We will pay a bit of a price to favor the visiting Cajuns who well remember an embarrassing 50-27 home loss to the Wolves in this very spot on the schedule last year. Under 3rd year HC Hudspeth, the Cajuns continue to point upward. In 2 years, Hudspeth is 18-8 SU, 16-8 ATS followed by a 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS beginning to 2013. That includes 4 consecutive wins after opening losses at Ark and Kansas St. Minor concern is that last week?s Tuesday night 37-20 victory against W. Kentucky was strongly influenced by a 14 point swing of a near 100 yard pick six. But the 200 Club status of LA Lafayette and the 39 PPG average operating behind QB Broadway, will prove to be a meaningful advantage against the Red Wolves defense allowing 30 PPG. Ark St. has failed to cover since an opening day win vs. Ark-Pine losing those spread decisions by a combined 48 points. Play the more settled team with momentum and revenge
Totals 4 You Selections for Tuesday, October 22nd
2013 Tuesday Night Football Total of the Year!!!!!
UL-Lafayette/Arkansas State - over 67 1/2
2013 Tuesday Night Football Total of the Year!!!!!
UL-Lafayette/Arkansas State - over 67 1/2
One of the top Monitored Services by the Sports Monitor:
The Winners Circle
Tuesday Football Plays
10* Play Arkansas State +2.5[/B] over Lafayette (TOP NCAA PLAY) 8:00 PM EST
Arkansas State has won 12 of the last 13 games when playing in the 2nd half of the season and they have also won 6 of the last 7 games coming off a bye week. Arkansas State has won 15 of the last 21 games coming off a win in their last game and they have won 5 of the last 6 games vs. Lafayette at home.
The Winners Circle
Tuesday Football Plays
10* Play Arkansas State +2.5[/B] over Lafayette (TOP NCAA PLAY) 8:00 PM EST
Arkansas State has won 12 of the last 13 games when playing in the 2nd half of the season and they have also won 6 of the last 7 games coming off a bye week. Arkansas State has won 15 of the last 21 games coming off a win in their last game and they have won 5 of the last 6 games vs. Lafayette at home.
PLAYBOOK NFL 2-MINUTE HANDICAP
Posted: 10/22/2013
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WEEK 7
Thursday, October 24
Carolina 11-1 A vs opp off SUATS loss... 0-3 SUATS A after score 30 > each L2G
TAMPA BAY 5 -1 vs .500 > opp off win 6 >... 0-7 H vs opp off BB ATS wins
Sunday, October 27
San Francisco 7-1 as favs 8 > pts Games 5-8... 8-2 as non-conf favs 3 > pts
JACKSONVILLE 18-4 before Titans... 7-2 dogs 12 > when < .300... 0-6 off SUATS loss vs opp off BB SU wins in Games 5-8
Dallas 1-7 SUATS vs NFC N... 1-7 w / OU line 48> pts
DETROIT 7-1 vs NFC E... 3-12 off SU fav loss
New York Giants SERIES: 2-7-1 L10G... 1-4 before Bye week
PHILADELPHIA 4-0 as favs off DD ATS loss vs div opp... 0-6 HF off H
Cleveland Series: 3-1 SUATS L4... 5-1 off BB SU losses vs opp off BB SU wins... 0-4 vs .666 > non-div opp
KANSAS CITY 0-6 SU L6 vs AFC N... 2-9 off SUATS wins vs <.500 opp
Buffalo Series: 0-3 L3... 8-1 in 2nd of BB RG's...7-0 A off SU dog win in Gms 5-8... 1-7 w/OU line 47> pts
NEW ORLEANS 11-0 H vs non-conf opp off SU dog win... Payton: 8-1 after allow 28 > pts
Miami Philbin: 7-2 as dog < 10 pts... 0-7 O/U away off BB SU loses
NEW ENGLAND 11-0 home vs conf opp off SU fav loss... 9-2 off div RG vs opp off SUATS loss
New York Jets Series: 3-0 L3... 6-0 O/U off SU div dog win... 0-4 as non-div dogs 4 > pts
CINCINNATI 5-0 off SU dog win vs opp off SU win... 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS vs AFC E
Pittsburgh Series: 1-4 L5... 0-5 vs AFC West... 6-0 O/U as non-div RF'S 6 < pts
OAKLAND 5-0 as conf HD's off SUATS loss...1-9 w/rest... 2-14 in 1st off BB H vs < .500 opp
Washington 5-0 away w/OU line 47 >pts...0-7 as non-div dogs > 3 pts vs. 600 > opp
DENVER Series: 0-3 L3... 8-2 vs NFC E... 1-6 home vs .400 < opp
Atlanta Series: 3-1 L4...12-0 away vs opp off BB SU losses
ARIZONA 5-0 as non-div conf favs 6 < pts off BB SU losses... 4-1 vs NFC S
Green Bay Series: 8-4 L12... 5-0 before Monday game... 0-8 O/U as div RF'S 10 < pts (Game 15 <)
MINNESOTA 7-1 as dog off BB SU losses... Frazier: 8-1-1 off SUATS loss vs opp off SU win
Monday, October 28
Seattle Series: 9-3 L12... 4-0 L4 on Mondays... 0-7 as conf favs off away game
ST. LOUIS 8-0 vs .666 > opp off SU win...0-4 L4 on Mondays... 3-12 as div HD's 4 > pts ... 6-0 O/U as dogs on Monday
Posted: 10/22/2013
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WEEK 7
Thursday, October 24
Carolina 11-1 A vs opp off SUATS loss... 0-3 SUATS A after score 30 > each L2G
TAMPA BAY 5 -1 vs .500 > opp off win 6 >... 0-7 H vs opp off BB ATS wins
Sunday, October 27
San Francisco 7-1 as favs 8 > pts Games 5-8... 8-2 as non-conf favs 3 > pts
JACKSONVILLE 18-4 before Titans... 7-2 dogs 12 > when < .300... 0-6 off SUATS loss vs opp off BB SU wins in Games 5-8
Dallas 1-7 SUATS vs NFC N... 1-7 w / OU line 48> pts
DETROIT 7-1 vs NFC E... 3-12 off SU fav loss
New York Giants SERIES: 2-7-1 L10G... 1-4 before Bye week
PHILADELPHIA 4-0 as favs off DD ATS loss vs div opp... 0-6 HF off H
Cleveland Series: 3-1 SUATS L4... 5-1 off BB SU losses vs opp off BB SU wins... 0-4 vs .666 > non-div opp
KANSAS CITY 0-6 SU L6 vs AFC N... 2-9 off SUATS wins vs <.500 opp
Buffalo Series: 0-3 L3... 8-1 in 2nd of BB RG's...7-0 A off SU dog win in Gms 5-8... 1-7 w/OU line 47> pts
NEW ORLEANS 11-0 H vs non-conf opp off SU dog win... Payton: 8-1 after allow 28 > pts
Miami Philbin: 7-2 as dog < 10 pts... 0-7 O/U away off BB SU loses
NEW ENGLAND 11-0 home vs conf opp off SU fav loss... 9-2 off div RG vs opp off SUATS loss
New York Jets Series: 3-0 L3... 6-0 O/U off SU div dog win... 0-4 as non-div dogs 4 > pts
CINCINNATI 5-0 off SU dog win vs opp off SU win... 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS vs AFC E
Pittsburgh Series: 1-4 L5... 0-5 vs AFC West... 6-0 O/U as non-div RF'S 6 < pts
OAKLAND 5-0 as conf HD's off SUATS loss...1-9 w/rest... 2-14 in 1st off BB H vs < .500 opp
Washington 5-0 away w/OU line 47 >pts...0-7 as non-div dogs > 3 pts vs. 600 > opp
DENVER Series: 0-3 L3... 8-2 vs NFC E... 1-6 home vs .400 < opp
Atlanta Series: 3-1 L4...12-0 away vs opp off BB SU losses
ARIZONA 5-0 as non-div conf favs 6 < pts off BB SU losses... 4-1 vs NFC S
Green Bay Series: 8-4 L12... 5-0 before Monday game... 0-8 O/U as div RF'S 10 < pts (Game 15 <)
MINNESOTA 7-1 as dog off BB SU losses... Frazier: 8-1-1 off SUATS loss vs opp off SU win
Monday, October 28
Seattle Series: 9-3 L12... 4-0 L4 on Mondays... 0-7 as conf favs off away game
ST. LOUIS 8-0 vs .666 > opp off SU win...0-4 L4 on Mondays... 3-12 as div HD's 4 > pts ... 6-0 O/U as dogs on Monday
If I don't get sidetracked, I will go get Pointwise tonight. Their top 5 college went 4-1 last week. They are on fire this year
POINTWISE
COLLEGIATE
FOOTBALL PROPHECY
KEY RELEASES
NEBRASKA over Minnesota RATING: 1
LOUISVILLE over South Florida RATING: 1
ALABAMA over Tennessee RATING: 2
GEORGIA TECH over Virginia RATING: 3
OHIO STATE over Penn State RATING: 4
MISSOURI over South Carolina RATING: 4
OREGON over Ucla RATING: 5
BALL STATE over Akron RATING: 5
RATED "1" PLAYS THIS SEASON: 12-4
TOP 5 COLLEGE THIS YEAR: 26-13
COLLEGIATE
FOOTBALL PROPHECY
KEY RELEASES
NEBRASKA over Minnesota RATING: 1
LOUISVILLE over South Florida RATING: 1
ALABAMA over Tennessee RATING: 2
GEORGIA TECH over Virginia RATING: 3
OHIO STATE over Penn State RATING: 4
MISSOURI over South Carolina RATING: 4
OREGON over Ucla RATING: 5
BALL STATE over Akron RATING: 5
RATED "1" PLAYS THIS SEASON: 12-4
TOP 5 COLLEGE THIS YEAR: 26-13
POWERPLAYS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
4.5* FLORIDA ST. 52 NC STATE 3
4.5* HOUSTON 33 RUTGERS 31
4.5* IOWA 27 NORTHWESTERN 17
4.5* SAN JOSE ST. 38 WYOMING 2
4.5* OREGON ST. 31 (+) STANFORD 30
4* UCF 40 CONNECTICUT 10
4* NAVY 20 (+) PITT 22
4* KANSAS ST 33 WEST VIRGINIA 19
4* ULM 32 GEORGIA ST 16
4* MISSOURI (if -4 or less) 36 SOUTH CAROLINA 25
4* NEBRASKA 35 MINNESOTA 22
4* BOWLING GREEN 29 TOLEDO 20
4* OHIO ST. 40 PENN ST. 18
3* OKLAHOMA ST 37 IOWA ST. 22
2* BAYLOR 56 KANSAS 17
COLL PP 61% L3W ? 4*?s 14-7 67% IN THAT SPAN!
FIVE 4.5*?s IN THIS ISSUE!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
4.5* FLORIDA ST. 52 NC STATE 3
4.5* HOUSTON 33 RUTGERS 31
4.5* IOWA 27 NORTHWESTERN 17
4.5* SAN JOSE ST. 38 WYOMING 2
4.5* OREGON ST. 31 (+) STANFORD 30
4* UCF 40 CONNECTICUT 10
4* NAVY 20 (+) PITT 22
4* KANSAS ST 33 WEST VIRGINIA 19
4* ULM 32 GEORGIA ST 16
4* MISSOURI (if -4 or less) 36 SOUTH CAROLINA 25
4* NEBRASKA 35 MINNESOTA 22
4* BOWLING GREEN 29 TOLEDO 20
4* OHIO ST. 40 PENN ST. 18
3* OKLAHOMA ST 37 IOWA ST. 22
2* BAYLOR 56 KANSAS 17
COLL PP 61% L3W ? 4*?s 14-7 67% IN THAT SPAN!
FIVE 4.5*?s IN THIS ISSUE!
Phone POW Underdog is Tulane +3 1/2, they are 7-1 this year on Underdog plays of the week over the phone.
GL!!
We mustah been on the same page at the same time while I was posting the thread on Pointwise, LOL!!
KING CREOLE - PLAYBOOK
Game of Month - He's a total's expert.
5* Ohio St/Penn St over
he has
:PLAYBOOK / VICTOR KING
TOTALS "TIPSHEET"
3* Redskins @ Broncos - ?OVER?
2* Falcons @ Cardinals - ?OVER?
2* SPPEEDEE'S "UNDER" OF THE WEEK
Browns @ Chiefs
Game of Month - He's a total's expert.
5* Ohio St/Penn St over
he has
:PLAYBOOK / VICTOR KING
TOTALS "TIPSHEET"
3* Redskins @ Broncos - ?OVER?
2* Falcons @ Cardinals - ?OVER?
2* SPPEEDEE'S "UNDER" OF THE WEEK
Browns @ Chiefs
SB Nations NFL Picks Week 8, He went 8-7 last wk!
For the record, I picked eight games correctly last week, and I got seven games wrong.
Panthers (-7) vs. Buccaneers
Thanks to Jon Bois, we learned exactly what a team made up exclusively of Schiano Men would look like. My only question is whether or not a team made up of 44 Schianos could beat a team actually coached by Greg Schiano, the one the Glazers are paying him to coach (at least they're saving money!).
Players on the real team coached by Schiano are too broken to respond to whatever adversity the video game would throw at them. Plus, Bill Sheridan would have Darrelle Revis in zone coverage and just as confused by pixelated off-balanced run plays.
Fans in Tampa Bay, or their radio stations at any rate, have taken to billboard campaigns to plead for Schiano's firing. And if you want a prop bet for this game, that's a good one. If the Buccaneers lose, this would be a great time to dump the coach, leaving the team with a long week to prepare under the interim. Let's go ahead and set the odds for that at 5/1.
The pick: Panthers
Cowboys vs. Lions (-3)
Interceptions, questionable coaching moves, 40-yard passes, penalties ... Dallas and Detroit have a lot in common. It should make for the ugliest, but most exciting, game of the week. Both teams are 4-3. Dallas also happens to be 2-1 against the spread on the road. Detroit matches that with a 2-1 record against the spread at home.
Your best bet here might be the over-under, which is currently set at 50.5 points. Take the over. It's the only thing that's reasonably predictable about this one.
The pick: Lions
49ers vs. Jaguars (-17)
Home-team double-digit underdogs actually have a pretty good record. Since 2009, 18 of 20 home teams with a 10-point spread or better have covered. But this game is in London. It's "home" only for the NFL, in the process of moving into its own luxury condo there. The Jaguars are technically the home team, part of a three-year deal with the league to take one home game away from passionate fans in Jacksonville.
Your prop bet here: How long before Jaguars fans get tired of shipping the team overseas for one week every year?
The pick: 49ers
Chiefs (-9) vs. Browns
Finally, finally, the Browns have decided to be the next team to give Jason Campbell a chance, keeping his backup career afloat. Campbell got one start last year, for the Bears. He does complete a ton of passes as a checkdown guy, and he is an improvement over Brandon Weeden. However, this Chiefs defense is capable of mauling much better lines and quarterbacks than Cleveland's.
Side action: Will Campbell be the next Browns quarterback shuttled off to IR?
The pick: Chiefs
Dolphins vs. Patriots (-7)
Miami has a new offensive tackle, Bryant McKinnie. If he can resolve himself not to be caught off guard by New England defenders talking up South Beach strip joints, it should be an improvement in pass protection for Ryan Tannehill.
The Patriots are 2-1 against the spread at home this season. But the way things are going with this team, a full touchdown feels generous, especially with a group of receivers liable to drop at least two TD passes every week. That should actually be a standing prop bet for the 2013 Patriots, the number of dropped touchdown throws.
I think Miami will cover this one.
The pick: Dolphins
Bills vs. Saints (-11)
Buffalo won its first road game of the season last week against the Dolphins. I like what the Bills are doing this season. It's the most fun team Buffalo's had since the K-Gun days, and the future looks really bright.
Only one team has scored more than 30 points against the Bills, the Brian Hoyer-led Browns. Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine keeps doing what he did with the Jets -- making smart game plans and using his players to the best of their abilities. But here's the thing: if this comes down to a shootout, the Bills will need Thad Lewis to keep pace with Drew Brees. That's probably not going to happen.
The pick: Saints
Giants vs. Eagles (-6)
This game has the second-highest over/under of any this week at 52 points. Needless to say, most of the action is going on the under because the proposition of the Giants scoring 25 points is just too risky. The Eagles could account for that deficit, and Michael Vick should be at quarterback this week. Either way, you should probably avoid this one all together.
The pick: Eagles
Jets vs. Bengals (-7)
This really could be the best game of the week. It's the Jets and the Bengals. More surprising than that, both of these teams have winning records. OK, so it's not so surprising that the Bengals are 5-2. The defense has played pretty well all season. Only the Packers have scored more than 25 points against them. That'll be the key this week, taking a page out of the Steelers' playbook and making life difficult for Geno Smith.
New York's defense could have its hands full with Andy Dalton (not a typo). The Ginger Avenger has thrown for at least 300 yards, two touchdowns and a 100-plus QB rating in his last two games. But I still like Rex Ryan's group to cover the touchdown margin.
The pick: Jets
Steelers (-3) vs. Raiders
The Steelers are favored by three on the road against the Raiders. I can't decide if that's a sign of just how far off track Mike Tomlin's team is, or how much better the Raiders are than we thought (and we didn't think much). The Carson Palmer-led Raiders actually beat the Steelers last year, in Oakland. Terrelle Pryor hasn't lost at home this season.
The pick: Raiders
Falcons vs. Cardinals (-1)
The Falcons have been tough on gamblers this year, too. Atlanta's 2-4 record against the spread matches its actual record. On the road, the Falcons are 0-2 in both categories. But they do have Steven Jackson back this week. He's averaging 5.5 yards per carry this season ... on just 14 rushing attempts. Jackson does know the Cardinals well from his NFC West days. In 15 games against Arizona, he's got 1,150 rushing yards, an average of four yards per carry and three touchdowns.
The pick: Falcons
Redskins vs. Broncos (-14)
Mike Shanahan's actually 3-1 against his old team. And the good news is that it's been long enough since the Orange one wore orange that we shouldn't have to sit through endless reminders that he won two Super Bowls with the Broncos and John Elway. The narrative has shifted to the quarterbacks, and a Broncos team looking for a rebound after its first loss of the season.
Denver should get it, too. Peyton Manning and his receivers against Washington's secondary looks like a nice tune-up game for them. RGIII has rounded back into form, and the oddsmakers see a shootout here. The over/under is set at 58 points, the highest one this week. You wouldn't normally bet the over on the highest O/U of the week, but this game looks like an exception to the rule in every way, especially since the Broncos won't have Champ Bailey in the secondary.
The pick: Broncos
Packers vs. Vikings (-10)
The Vikings have come full circle, bringing Christian Ponder off the bench to start this week after the Josh Freeman experiment resulted in a 37 percent completion rate and a new record for overthrown passes. Oh, he also suffered a concussion, so the Vikings' lack of preparation isn't totally at fault here.
So anyway, it's Ponder against a Packers defense that's quietly become one of the league's most effective units. Green Bay managed to hold opponents to fewer than 20 points in its last three games.
The pick: Packers
Seahawks (-11) vs. Rams
And our week wraps up with a third lopsided, awful-looking prime-time game. The Rams must know this. They also have to know that the city's interest in the team's sagging fortunes is ebbing further, and potentially competing against a World Series game less than a mile away. No wonder they called Brett Favre; what front office wants to be on national television with an empty house?
The Seahawks have nine sacks in their last two games. Only one opponent has scored more than 25 points against this defense, and it's unlikely the Rams will be the second one to do that, not with Kellen Clemens at quarterback.
The pick: Seahawks
For the record, I picked eight games correctly last week, and I got seven games wrong.
Panthers (-7) vs. Buccaneers
Thanks to Jon Bois, we learned exactly what a team made up exclusively of Schiano Men would look like. My only question is whether or not a team made up of 44 Schianos could beat a team actually coached by Greg Schiano, the one the Glazers are paying him to coach (at least they're saving money!).
Players on the real team coached by Schiano are too broken to respond to whatever adversity the video game would throw at them. Plus, Bill Sheridan would have Darrelle Revis in zone coverage and just as confused by pixelated off-balanced run plays.
Fans in Tampa Bay, or their radio stations at any rate, have taken to billboard campaigns to plead for Schiano's firing. And if you want a prop bet for this game, that's a good one. If the Buccaneers lose, this would be a great time to dump the coach, leaving the team with a long week to prepare under the interim. Let's go ahead and set the odds for that at 5/1.
The pick: Panthers
Cowboys vs. Lions (-3)
Interceptions, questionable coaching moves, 40-yard passes, penalties ... Dallas and Detroit have a lot in common. It should make for the ugliest, but most exciting, game of the week. Both teams are 4-3. Dallas also happens to be 2-1 against the spread on the road. Detroit matches that with a 2-1 record against the spread at home.
Your best bet here might be the over-under, which is currently set at 50.5 points. Take the over. It's the only thing that's reasonably predictable about this one.
The pick: Lions
49ers vs. Jaguars (-17)
Home-team double-digit underdogs actually have a pretty good record. Since 2009, 18 of 20 home teams with a 10-point spread or better have covered. But this game is in London. It's "home" only for the NFL, in the process of moving into its own luxury condo there. The Jaguars are technically the home team, part of a three-year deal with the league to take one home game away from passionate fans in Jacksonville.
Your prop bet here: How long before Jaguars fans get tired of shipping the team overseas for one week every year?
The pick: 49ers
Chiefs (-9) vs. Browns
Finally, finally, the Browns have decided to be the next team to give Jason Campbell a chance, keeping his backup career afloat. Campbell got one start last year, for the Bears. He does complete a ton of passes as a checkdown guy, and he is an improvement over Brandon Weeden. However, this Chiefs defense is capable of mauling much better lines and quarterbacks than Cleveland's.
Side action: Will Campbell be the next Browns quarterback shuttled off to IR?
The pick: Chiefs
Dolphins vs. Patriots (-7)
Miami has a new offensive tackle, Bryant McKinnie. If he can resolve himself not to be caught off guard by New England defenders talking up South Beach strip joints, it should be an improvement in pass protection for Ryan Tannehill.
The Patriots are 2-1 against the spread at home this season. But the way things are going with this team, a full touchdown feels generous, especially with a group of receivers liable to drop at least two TD passes every week. That should actually be a standing prop bet for the 2013 Patriots, the number of dropped touchdown throws.
I think Miami will cover this one.
The pick: Dolphins
Bills vs. Saints (-11)
Buffalo won its first road game of the season last week against the Dolphins. I like what the Bills are doing this season. It's the most fun team Buffalo's had since the K-Gun days, and the future looks really bright.
Only one team has scored more than 30 points against the Bills, the Brian Hoyer-led Browns. Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine keeps doing what he did with the Jets -- making smart game plans and using his players to the best of their abilities. But here's the thing: if this comes down to a shootout, the Bills will need Thad Lewis to keep pace with Drew Brees. That's probably not going to happen.
The pick: Saints
Giants vs. Eagles (-6)
This game has the second-highest over/under of any this week at 52 points. Needless to say, most of the action is going on the under because the proposition of the Giants scoring 25 points is just too risky. The Eagles could account for that deficit, and Michael Vick should be at quarterback this week. Either way, you should probably avoid this one all together.
The pick: Eagles
Jets vs. Bengals (-7)
This really could be the best game of the week. It's the Jets and the Bengals. More surprising than that, both of these teams have winning records. OK, so it's not so surprising that the Bengals are 5-2. The defense has played pretty well all season. Only the Packers have scored more than 25 points against them. That'll be the key this week, taking a page out of the Steelers' playbook and making life difficult for Geno Smith.
New York's defense could have its hands full with Andy Dalton (not a typo). The Ginger Avenger has thrown for at least 300 yards, two touchdowns and a 100-plus QB rating in his last two games. But I still like Rex Ryan's group to cover the touchdown margin.
The pick: Jets
Steelers (-3) vs. Raiders
The Steelers are favored by three on the road against the Raiders. I can't decide if that's a sign of just how far off track Mike Tomlin's team is, or how much better the Raiders are than we thought (and we didn't think much). The Carson Palmer-led Raiders actually beat the Steelers last year, in Oakland. Terrelle Pryor hasn't lost at home this season.
The pick: Raiders
Falcons vs. Cardinals (-1)
The Falcons have been tough on gamblers this year, too. Atlanta's 2-4 record against the spread matches its actual record. On the road, the Falcons are 0-2 in both categories. But they do have Steven Jackson back this week. He's averaging 5.5 yards per carry this season ... on just 14 rushing attempts. Jackson does know the Cardinals well from his NFC West days. In 15 games against Arizona, he's got 1,150 rushing yards, an average of four yards per carry and three touchdowns.
The pick: Falcons
Redskins vs. Broncos (-14)
Mike Shanahan's actually 3-1 against his old team. And the good news is that it's been long enough since the Orange one wore orange that we shouldn't have to sit through endless reminders that he won two Super Bowls with the Broncos and John Elway. The narrative has shifted to the quarterbacks, and a Broncos team looking for a rebound after its first loss of the season.
Denver should get it, too. Peyton Manning and his receivers against Washington's secondary looks like a nice tune-up game for them. RGIII has rounded back into form, and the oddsmakers see a shootout here. The over/under is set at 58 points, the highest one this week. You wouldn't normally bet the over on the highest O/U of the week, but this game looks like an exception to the rule in every way, especially since the Broncos won't have Champ Bailey in the secondary.
The pick: Broncos
Packers vs. Vikings (-10)
The Vikings have come full circle, bringing Christian Ponder off the bench to start this week after the Josh Freeman experiment resulted in a 37 percent completion rate and a new record for overthrown passes. Oh, he also suffered a concussion, so the Vikings' lack of preparation isn't totally at fault here.
So anyway, it's Ponder against a Packers defense that's quietly become one of the league's most effective units. Green Bay managed to hold opponents to fewer than 20 points in its last three games.
The pick: Packers
Seahawks (-11) vs. Rams
And our week wraps up with a third lopsided, awful-looking prime-time game. The Rams must know this. They also have to know that the city's interest in the team's sagging fortunes is ebbing further, and potentially competing against a World Series game less than a mile away. No wonder they called Brett Favre; what front office wants to be on national television with an empty house?
The Seahawks have nine sacks in their last two games. Only one opponent has scored more than 25 points against this defense, and it's unlikely the Rams will be the second one to do that, not with Kellen Clemens at quarterback.
The pick: Seahawks