Week 9 First Half Angles

[PacMan]

Halftime Bets
1x: 10-5-1 (+4.5 Units)
2x: 2-5 (-7.0 Units)
3x: 1-0 (+3.0 Units)
4x: 1-0 (+4.0 Units)
Sides: 3-2 (+0.7 Units)
Totals: 11-8-1 (+3.8 Units)
TOTAL HALFTIME BETS: 14-10-1 (+4.5 Units)


First Quarter Bets
1x: 3-4 (-1.15 Units)
2x: 0-1 (-2.0 Units)*

TOTAL FIRST QUARTER BETS: 3-5 (-3.15 Units)


BUFFALO AT NEW ENGLAND
1st Half Line: New England -3, O/U 20.0

The Pats have suddenly turned into a scoring machine. In their last three games, they have scored a total of 62 points by halftime. True, this wasn't against good defenses, but I don't consider Buffalo's defense good. Also, the Bills haven't been shutout at halftime yet this year.

PICK: 1st Half Over 20.0 (-105) (1x)


PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND
1st Half Line: Pittsburgh -1.5, O/U 17.0

In seven games, Cleveland has given up a total of 22 points by halftime. They have never been behind at half. None of Cleveland's games so far have had more than 16 points at halftime.

PICK: 1st Half Under 17.0 (2x)
PICK: 1st Half Cleveland +1.5 (1x)

CAROLINA AT ST LOUIS
1st Half Line: St Louis -10.0, O/U 24.0

The Rams have scored 21 or more points by halftime four of their last five games. While the Panther's offense is weak, they haven't been shutout at halftime yet. In fact, their lowest score at halftime so far is 6. Yes, Weinke's status hurts Carolina's chances of scoring a bit, but it could improve St. Louis' chances.

PICK: 1st Half Over 24.0 (1x)

Possibly more picks to come. I have four picks marked that are a half point off of where I want them. Hopefully I'll get at least one of them.

Good luck.

* denotes a correction from previous weeks. The two unit loss was a parlay, so it was 2.0 units and not 2.2. Sorry about that!

 

[PacMan]

Adding one more pick.

CAROLINA AT ST LOUIS
1st Half Line: St Louis -10.0, O/U 24.0

Already got one unit on the over. I thought about it for a bit, and realized that St Louis is the stronger pick.

Martz doesn't show any mercy. Remember the New Orleans comeback vs. the Rams a few weeks ago? Remember how Martz was running it up on the Saints? The Panthers won both games vs. St Louis last year, and Martz ain't about to let it happen again. Carolina is flat out outmanned in this matchup.

On the contrarian view: Carolina's secondary isn't that bad. They're 29th in the league vs. the pass, but they are still a solid unit. Doug Evans has six interceptions already. Faulk may start off a little slow. Another plus for Carolina is that Seifert has owned (16-4 SU vs.) the Rams in the past.

Nonetheless, the Rams receivers run perhaps the best pass routes I have seen. The reason I usually don't like to play these big lines is because I worry that the favorite will take the game lightly. Perhaps look ahead to the next game, or play too conservative to get through the game with few injuries. I don't think that's Martz's style. If Warner is on, he will keep throwing and throwing, even if they're up three or four touchdowns.

PICK: 1st Half St Louis -10.0 (2x)

Good luck.

 

[PacMan]

Just noticed something else about the Rams first half pick. If the Rams were 10 point faves every first half thus far, they'd be 5-2 ATS. Out of those five teams they outscored by more than 10 points by half, four of them have winning records.

PICK: 1st Half St Louis -10.0 (2x more - now a 4x pick.)