YTD: 48-42-3
God morning everyone! Happy College Football Saturday! Lets all make some cash out there! :toast:
Here's my card:
Minny -1 over Purdue. Yes, I know this probably puts me in a line with all the squares, but these teams are going in opposire directions and today's game will not change those courses. Purdue is a wreck. In addition to poor overall play, the Boilers seem to be faltering underneath some in fighting and a lame duck coach. This wont be a fun closing parade for Tiller. Since 2005, the Boilers are 4-22 SU against Bowl teams and three of those wins came against the MAC. Minnesota is a bowl team and one of the most improved teams in the country. Weber will make anough plays, Decker will have at least 15 catches, they'll run the football and their opportunistic D will force three PU turnovers. Maybe they're looking past PU? I doubt it. They come in with a week of rest and afrter going winless last year in the Big 10, you can bet that master motivator Tim Brewster is whispering payback all the time. Their rise in the standings continues today. Big time.
Illinois -2 over Wisco. Another Big 10 game where the two teams are going in opposite directions. Hard to imagine the Badgers losing another home game, but I cant trust this offense to go point for point with one the most explosive offenses in the country. Wisco has individual playmakers on D, but dont think they match up well in this one. Wisco's tailspin continues for another week as Illinois pulls away with big plays late in the game.
UNC -2 over BC. I am asking for trouble on this one as I am bucking the OT loser theory and the many technical trends that play off of that. But, I've been riding UNC's games all year with a lot of success with a personal 4-2 record in their games. I like them to bounce back returning home to Chapel Hill while BC has a hangover of sorts to overcome as well, with last week's emotional win over the Hokies. The Heels have played very weel at home under Butch Davis. BC's offense is no great shakes. Crane likes to throw the INT and feel the Heels will take advantage of that and hold on in the end with a big ACC win.
Miami -2 over Wake. Another historical trend I am bucking here as Wake's Jim Grobe is one of the best road dog coaches out there. But, I like the Canes D here to swarm the Deacons and feel the offense has some new found life now that Jacory Harris is seeing the field and contributing big plays. I love what Wake has done in recent seasons, but dont feel they're as good this year as they've been the last two seasons. The offense is kind of wreck. Riley Skinner cant seem to get the team into the endzone and the Canes aren't the right Defense to turn that around again. Plus, they're reshuffling their O Line around due to injuries. Miami wins and the constant shuffle that are the ACC standings takes another turn.
Kansas -1 over Texas Tech. Classic sammy for the Raiders here right in the middle of games with their arch rivals (tamu last week, horns next week). Problem is they're playing a pretty strong team today. Their first test of the season against an equal, and its on the road. Love the situation for the Jayhawks. Given how Tech runs their offense, its quite compelling to see the Reesing's stats for KU are nearly as guady. KU is not awesome at running the ball, but they are getting hard running from Jake Sharp, whose looked good so far in league play. Having watched Tech's game with KSU and TAMU, and I thought Tech would be in trouble if they found a team more efficient on offense with more playmakers. They have that foe in Kansas. The Hawks are 19-7 ATS at home since 2004 and 21-3 SU in their last 24 games in Lawrence. They get the "upset" today.
TT/KU Over 67......Both teams in the 30s with ease in this one. Last week's TAMU just did not have the horses to score point for point with the Raiders. The Hawks do and this sucker will be a like a video game. Both teams were in high scoring affairs last week and another one is in the offing today.
UK +24 over Florida. Have you heard about double digits dogs in the SEC? They're 7-2 ATS this year and 39-11-2 over the last couple of seasons. This has been a profitable trend for over a decade. This line reminds me the lines in this matchup in their height of the Spurrier era when UK blew chunks. The Gators are still rolling, but the Cats are within their best three year run in years. They're a solid team. They play good D. And, aren't the Gators going to be looking ahead some to next week vs UGA? This is a sloppy game and UK keeps it close throughout.
Cincy -1 over UConn. I am a little nervous about how many road teams I have winning today. Cincy is the better team here, especially now that they're getting better and healthier at the QB position. I love this big play secondary and I love the way Kelly gameplans and gets his teams ready to play. They will go in a tough place to play and get a big road win. This team is a legit darkhorse to the win the Big East.
CMU -3 over Toledo. Surprise, surprise another road team. As a Michigan fan, who is also a booster of his hometown Rockets, I knew the Toledo loss for Michigan would burn more as the season wears on. Why? The Rockets just aren't any good as evidenced by the shellacking they took in Dekalb last weekend. Here's another one where they dont match up well. CMU's offense wont have any trouble against the porous Rocket D. If they can beat Western with their backup QB and RB playing they can beat the Rockets with any combination of their starter and primary backups in the game. The Toledo offense will hang around, but I dont trust the Opelt kid to not have his moments of terrible play. Look for strong defensive end play from CMU to help thwart Toledo with sacks and a few pressure turnovers to set up the Chippewa O. The Chips are 21-7-1 ATS in league play since 2005.
Oklahoma St +12 over Texas. I mentioned in the leadup to the Texas-OU game about taking the dog in battle of teams with a 5-0 record or better. Check out AR's thread as he has actually numbers to back this up, although his line of demarcation is 6-0 or better teams. AR's research revealed that dogs in this role who won by 10 or more the week before are 16-1 ATS. Um, I like those numbers! This fits, and I'm on it. Its been a profitable system for several years running, and it pops up ever so rarely. Riding the Pokes in this one solely on that alone.
Good Luck Everyone!! :weed:
God morning everyone! Happy College Football Saturday! Lets all make some cash out there! :toast:
Here's my card:
Minny -1 over Purdue. Yes, I know this probably puts me in a line with all the squares, but these teams are going in opposire directions and today's game will not change those courses. Purdue is a wreck. In addition to poor overall play, the Boilers seem to be faltering underneath some in fighting and a lame duck coach. This wont be a fun closing parade for Tiller. Since 2005, the Boilers are 4-22 SU against Bowl teams and three of those wins came against the MAC. Minnesota is a bowl team and one of the most improved teams in the country. Weber will make anough plays, Decker will have at least 15 catches, they'll run the football and their opportunistic D will force three PU turnovers. Maybe they're looking past PU? I doubt it. They come in with a week of rest and afrter going winless last year in the Big 10, you can bet that master motivator Tim Brewster is whispering payback all the time. Their rise in the standings continues today. Big time.
Illinois -2 over Wisco. Another Big 10 game where the two teams are going in opposite directions. Hard to imagine the Badgers losing another home game, but I cant trust this offense to go point for point with one the most explosive offenses in the country. Wisco has individual playmakers on D, but dont think they match up well in this one. Wisco's tailspin continues for another week as Illinois pulls away with big plays late in the game.
UNC -2 over BC. I am asking for trouble on this one as I am bucking the OT loser theory and the many technical trends that play off of that. But, I've been riding UNC's games all year with a lot of success with a personal 4-2 record in their games. I like them to bounce back returning home to Chapel Hill while BC has a hangover of sorts to overcome as well, with last week's emotional win over the Hokies. The Heels have played very weel at home under Butch Davis. BC's offense is no great shakes. Crane likes to throw the INT and feel the Heels will take advantage of that and hold on in the end with a big ACC win.
Miami -2 over Wake. Another historical trend I am bucking here as Wake's Jim Grobe is one of the best road dog coaches out there. But, I like the Canes D here to swarm the Deacons and feel the offense has some new found life now that Jacory Harris is seeing the field and contributing big plays. I love what Wake has done in recent seasons, but dont feel they're as good this year as they've been the last two seasons. The offense is kind of wreck. Riley Skinner cant seem to get the team into the endzone and the Canes aren't the right Defense to turn that around again. Plus, they're reshuffling their O Line around due to injuries. Miami wins and the constant shuffle that are the ACC standings takes another turn.
Kansas -1 over Texas Tech. Classic sammy for the Raiders here right in the middle of games with their arch rivals (tamu last week, horns next week). Problem is they're playing a pretty strong team today. Their first test of the season against an equal, and its on the road. Love the situation for the Jayhawks. Given how Tech runs their offense, its quite compelling to see the Reesing's stats for KU are nearly as guady. KU is not awesome at running the ball, but they are getting hard running from Jake Sharp, whose looked good so far in league play. Having watched Tech's game with KSU and TAMU, and I thought Tech would be in trouble if they found a team more efficient on offense with more playmakers. They have that foe in Kansas. The Hawks are 19-7 ATS at home since 2004 and 21-3 SU in their last 24 games in Lawrence. They get the "upset" today.
TT/KU Over 67......Both teams in the 30s with ease in this one. Last week's TAMU just did not have the horses to score point for point with the Raiders. The Hawks do and this sucker will be a like a video game. Both teams were in high scoring affairs last week and another one is in the offing today.
UK +24 over Florida. Have you heard about double digits dogs in the SEC? They're 7-2 ATS this year and 39-11-2 over the last couple of seasons. This has been a profitable trend for over a decade. This line reminds me the lines in this matchup in their height of the Spurrier era when UK blew chunks. The Gators are still rolling, but the Cats are within their best three year run in years. They're a solid team. They play good D. And, aren't the Gators going to be looking ahead some to next week vs UGA? This is a sloppy game and UK keeps it close throughout.
Cincy -1 over UConn. I am a little nervous about how many road teams I have winning today. Cincy is the better team here, especially now that they're getting better and healthier at the QB position. I love this big play secondary and I love the way Kelly gameplans and gets his teams ready to play. They will go in a tough place to play and get a big road win. This team is a legit darkhorse to the win the Big East.
CMU -3 over Toledo. Surprise, surprise another road team. As a Michigan fan, who is also a booster of his hometown Rockets, I knew the Toledo loss for Michigan would burn more as the season wears on. Why? The Rockets just aren't any good as evidenced by the shellacking they took in Dekalb last weekend. Here's another one where they dont match up well. CMU's offense wont have any trouble against the porous Rocket D. If they can beat Western with their backup QB and RB playing they can beat the Rockets with any combination of their starter and primary backups in the game. The Toledo offense will hang around, but I dont trust the Opelt kid to not have his moments of terrible play. Look for strong defensive end play from CMU to help thwart Toledo with sacks and a few pressure turnovers to set up the Chippewa O. The Chips are 21-7-1 ATS in league play since 2005.
Oklahoma St +12 over Texas. I mentioned in the leadup to the Texas-OU game about taking the dog in battle of teams with a 5-0 record or better. Check out AR's thread as he has actually numbers to back this up, although his line of demarcation is 6-0 or better teams. AR's research revealed that dogs in this role who won by 10 or more the week before are 16-1 ATS. Um, I like those numbers! This fits, and I'm on it. Its been a profitable system for several years running, and it pops up ever so rarely. Riding the Pokes in this one solely on that alone.
Good Luck Everyone!! :weed:
