Week 9

[layinwood]

Throwing my nutts out on the line this week.


Texas Tech +7 6units


Biggest play I'll make all year. I'll give my reasons later but I feel pretty good about this play.

 

[layinwood]

Norman is one of the more difficult places in the country to play. Visiting teams haven't faired well over the years but Tech did win there the last time in 2011 and has faired well vs OU in general. Since 2005 they have alternated wins and have made it hard on each other when one has come in undefeated. OUs pass defense is getting a lot of praise this year and has a very high ranking. They do have a good pass defense but there are a few reasons I believe that rating is inflated. First, they haven't played a good passing team yet and haven't faced a good qb either. Second, they've slowed the game down by about 40% from what they've been in the past years. This is leading to far fewer plays for the opposing team thus leading to fewer total passing yards.

IMO the key to the game is going to be the running games and running Ds. Techs run defense has been solid this year only giving up an avg of 3.3 per carry. Since OU is getting 54% of their offense from the running game this is big. I expect Tech to sell out vs the run game and dare Bell to throw the ball. So far this year he hasn't faired well when that's the case. OU put 20 on the TCU defense and I would expect around the same number in this game.

I don't expect Tech offense to have a ton of success in this game. Getting fewer possessions always hurts teams that like to get as many plays as possible. Every game this year I've said that the difference in the game will be Tech TE Jace Amaro. So far he's been killing teams. IMO OU will have to double him using a saftey over the top. This should leave Marquez 1v1 with his man and also leave Grant(who should be back this week) 1v1 in the slot. Those two have had great years and have been clutch when needed. With the matchups on the outside and safties tied up watching Amaro and anything deep then it should leave the RBs for Tech open in the flats and 1v1 vs the LBs for OU. Both Foster and Washington should have big days catching the ball out of the backfield. I've not been impressed with the speed of OUs LBs and think this is a place that Tech can exploit them.

Tech is coming in to this game as health as a team can hope to be at this point in the season. Their offensive line is finally fully healthy and that is big vs a hobbled OU dline.

I'm not sure which frosh QB will start for Tech but I expect it to be Webb. He's grown in each game and can make every pass. If he doesn't try to win the game by himself then I really think Tech can keep this close and perhaps win. If he tries to hard to make plays then Tech could be in trouble. So far his bail out passes have been throwing the ball long which is something I don't mind. Make mistakes on long throws not on outs.

 

[LA Burns]

lw - thanks for the info and detailed analysis

faded TT last week as I thought the spot was really tough so would have a hard time pulling the trigger on them this week but your arguments are very convincing - good luck with your big play, will be rooting for you

burns

 

[sds222]

Hope this comes through as well.
I'm thinking U 59, division game, both defenses match up pretty good and we know Ok likes to run the ball.
I can see a close game maybe less scoring, thoughts?
thx and GL

 

[layinwood]

SDS, I like the under but I always have a hard time taking it in games with Tech. IF(and it's a very big if) get out to a lead and are passing the ball well then I think the game opens up and at that point 40 points by one team won't be that big of a deal. There is a 60% chance of rain during the game so that should help with lower scoring unless it leads to TOs. Techs d has played very well this year. Last week vs WV they seemed to fall asleep during the middle of the game and for 5 drives didn't look very good. After that they tightened up and for the next 5 drives gave WVU nothing at all. I really think there's a chance that Tech gets out to a big lead and if that happens would make me worry about the under.

Back to the stats. OUs pass defense is what's supposed to be good this year. The fact is they've only faced one top 50 passing offense and that was UT who is 49. Even at 49 I don't consider Texas a very good passing team. Mckoy sucks IMO and they just don't seem to have that many threats at WR this year.

 

[sds222]

thx, stats can be very miss leading, and there is the "big game boob" factor (stoops).
I was on w.va. last week but tech survived, this should be good.

Before the season I had pencilled in some notes on teams with new coaches that could be better or fades. I had kingsbury/tech as underrated and an over team. They are combined 10-4 ATS and of course I don't think I've cashed a single wager on them this year :facepalm:

 

[BOBBYW]

gl...

 

[Full court press]

Staying away here but wanted to comment that like your analysis of the game. When somebody posts a GOY or biggest bet of the year it's nice to know the reasons why. I'll be rooting for the Red Raiders for you

 

[ldabdou]

GL. Like the play!

 

[layinwood]

I apologize for anyone who followed me on this one. TOs killed the chances of this winning. I thought that TOs might be big but I thought it would be the Frosh QBs fault, not our two best WRs fault.