Week of 11/20-11/22

xerri

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Sep 10, 1999
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92-75, +39.62 units

S. Mississippi -2.5 -110, 3 units
I should probably learn not to bet against TCU anymore but will go against them again. Think there is a reason USM is favored over the undefeated Horned Frogs. TCU still hasn't faced a decent defense this year and they will really be tested in Hattiesburg. Golden Eagles defense is allowing just 16 ppg and 330 ypg after a very slow start and they have really come on of late. Their losses were at Cal, Alabama, and at home to Nebraska so nothing bad about those losses. USM should be pumped for this game at home as this game could give them the CUSA title and they can knock off one of the two remaining undefeated teams. Think they get it done so will lay the 2.5.

Fresno St. +8.5 -110, 4 units
Bulldogs have had their struggles but have put together a solid season as their 4 losses were all on the road at Tennessee, Oklahoma, Colorado St., and Hawaii, all of which are tough places for a road team. FSU has good balance on offense and Pinegar has been playing better since coming back from injury and has some good targets at WR. Boise continues to blow out bad teams as they lost their only game against a decent team in Oregon St. Fresno should be looking for some revenge after losing by 46 on the blue turf last year and I wouldn't be surprised to see them get the SU win at home.

Syracuse +2 -110, 4 units
Should be a good spot to go against the Mountaineers coming off a big win against Pitt. Orangemen have a pretty tough homefield and have blown out some decent teams at home winning by 25 against BC and 27 against Toledo. They also didn't play badly losing by just 7 at Miami this past weekend. Syracuse has a good running game and takes pretty good care of the ball so I think they can put up some points. WV may be a little flat and I look for Syracuse to get the win here.

San Diego St. +4 -110, 3 units
Aztecs have an excellent defense allowing just 290 ypg and 3.3 ypr. The final score was a little misleading against CSU as the Rams offense was shut down for most of the game before getting a couple of big plays in the 4th quarter to get the cover. AF hasn't been playing well losing 3 of 4 and their best wins this season were against UNLV and N. Texas which isn't saying much. Think the Aztec defense can keep them close so will take the points.
 

ND2002HORNS

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Really like SMiss as well. On Fresno St. but have not looked at SD St. SU on the other hand I am still capping.
Something to keep in mind. Last week we had KSU unranked favoured over a ranked Neb. team and unranked Wisconsin favoured over ranked MSU and both won easily. This is a trend AR182 mentioned a few weeks ago. This week SMiss is unranked and favoured over a ranked opponent for a reason. I think Wisconsin falls into this category as well. GL

HORNS:D
 

xerri

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Thanks Kev, I've been using that system for the last couple of years. I was on KSU and Wisky last week. Sounds good again this week.
 

xerri

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adding Arkansas St. +6 -110, 2 units
MTSU's top 2 QBs are questionable and their 3rd string QB played hurt last game and may also be unavailable. They're also coming off a triple OT loss so not sure they will be ready on the short rest. ASU is 4-0 at home and MTSU is 1-4 on the road so will take the points with the home team.
 

xerri

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Wyoming +8.5 -110, 3 units
Lobos' defense has struggled against the pass this season allowing about 250 ypg through the air and Wyoming has a good passing offense avg. 271 ypg. Lobos gave up 42 to Texas Tech, 23 to WSU, 35 to Utah, and 34 to Colorado St. which are good passing teams so I think Wyoming will score a few points. Lobos are coming off a big win against Air Force so think this is a good spot for Wyoming to possibly pull the upset.

Ohio +24 -110, 2 units
Miami OH coming off 2 big wins against BG and Marshall may overlook the 2-8 Bobcats. Ohio has been pretty competitive losing just one game by more than 23 points and they usually play Miami pretty well with the L5 meetings being by 18 or less so think this may be a few too many for Miami to lay on the road.

Kansas St. -14.5 -110, 2 units
KSU is rolling right now winning their last 5 games by 28 or more including a 29 point win at Nebraska. Missouri relies on their running game and KSU's rush defense has been great allowing just 2.9 ypr against some very tough competition so I think the Tigers may have some difficulty moving the ball. KSU has dominated this series winning 38-0 at Missouri last season and won the last 2 meetings at home by 21 and 66 so will lay the chalk.

also added another unit to Fresno for a total of 6 units, probably my biggest play this week.
 

gardenweasel

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Jan 10, 2002
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this

this

looks like a very solid card(imo).....i `m looking at several of the same games as smaller unposted plays.....

n.m. has the worst pass "d" in the mtn west and 95th in the country(although i`m usually skeptical when a team with a super strong run "d"shows alot of passing yardage allowed....sometimes when teams CAN`T run,all they do is pass and that skews the stat a bit....usc falls in this category also)....wyoming `s "d",although not stellar,usually plays well at home......and if they sweep their last 2 at home,will get bowl consideration.... like the fact that the public is all over n.m....i didn`t think anyone else was on this one....bramlett should do some business here.....nice job.

g.l.
 
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xerri

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Ole Miss +7 -105, 4 units
Rebels usually play LSU tough losing last year in Baton Rouge by 1 and winning 3 of the 4 previous meetings. Think this is easily LSU's biggest road test as their 4 road games this season were at Alabama, S. Carolina, Miss. St., and Arizona. LSU's defense hasn't been tested by a real good passing offense this season as the best they have faced was Georgia but Greene has struggled with the injuries at WR. Ole Miss has shown they can move the ball against just about anyone and if LSU's defense has any soft spot it is in the secondary. Manning does a great job of avoiding sacks and turnovers for the most part so I think the Rebs stay in the game as long as they avoid the big turnovers. Ole Miss' defensive numbers are poor but they have given up a ton of yards in the prevent as USC and Bama put up a lot of yards when the Rebs had a big lead and they also faced Texas Tech which skews the numbers a little. Ole Miss also has one of the best kickers in the nation in Nichols which could be key if this game is close. Rebs may not win but think they can at least keep this under a touchdown at home.

Michigan St. -4.5 -110, 3 units
Not usually a big fan of square plays but think MSU will win and cover the low number at home after losing 3 straight in some tough circumstances. PSU hasn't done anything all year only beating Indiana, Kent, and Temple. While their pass defense numbers are good I think that is more a result of their schedule than a great defense. Of the best teams they have played, most were running teams in the cases of Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Ohio St. The only good passing teams they faced were Wisky and Purdue and they gave up 28 and 30 in those games. I think Smoker will put up some points and the Spartans get the cover.

Iowa +3 -105, 3 units
While I'm aware of the unranked fav system, I don't think that is as applicable here since the public is all over Wisconsin which is not usually the case under that systme. Think Iowa is the much better defensive team in this game as they are allowing just over 300 ypg. Also think they have a huge advantage with Kaeding at K as I expect a close game.

Vanderbilt +21.5 -105, 3 units
Vandy is playing pretty decent football covering their last 4 games and they've only lost 1 game by over 19 points this season which was 9 games ago. Vandy is capable of putting up a few points and I don't think Tennessee has much motivation in this game so look for the Dores to cover the 3 TD spread.

Cincy +10.5 -105, 3 units
Think this is a bit of an overlay as a result of Memphis' win at Louisville at Cincy getting crushed against TCU. Memphis only really has 1 quality win which was against Ole Miss as their only other victories were against ECU, Tulane, Houston, Ark St., Tenn Tech, and Louisville. Cincy's defense hasn't been bad for the most part as they are allowing just 315 ypg and they have a pretty decent RB and QB so I think they can put up enough to cover the spread.

C. Michigan +20.5 -105, 3 units
While Navy is 7-1 ATS, I'm not sure anyone can remember the last time they were asked to cover 3 TDs to get the cover. CMU was able to stay within 20 of some pretty good MAC teams in BG, Toledo, and NIU and CMU is avg. 22 ppg on the year and 29 ppg over their L3 games so they are capable of putting up some points. Think this is way too many so will go with the dog.

Illinois +4 -105, 1 unit
More of a line play than anything. NW does not have a good defense and Illinois may actually show up for this game since it is their last home game for the seniors. Ward hasn't played that badly at QB and I think they can actually score enough against this NW defense to get the cover and possible win at home.

another unit to Ohio +24 -105 for a total of 3 units and another unit to Wyoming +8.5 -105 for a total of 4 units
 
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