WEEKEND PLAYS FROM THE DOG POUND

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phoenix566

Cannabis Sativa
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Jun 20, 2001
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inside your head
Sat:

TITANS + 6 ** W
PHILLY ML + 125 L
OAK/TENN UNDER 44.5 ** (hedge from another thread) W
OAK/TENN 2ND HALF OVER 20.5 (from another thread) W

3 TEAM 10 POINT TEASER: *** L
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PATRIOTS + 7
SF/PHI UNDER 50.5
OAK/TEN OVER 34.5

SAT: 3-2 : (+.7*)


Sun:

CLEVELAND + 7 *** L
WASHINGTON - 1 ** L
JAGUARS + 2.5 W
SEAHAWKS + 3.5 W
BUFFALO + 3.5 W
DALLAS + 3 even L
BUFF/ATL UNDER 41 L

reverse: BUF + 3.5 / CLE + 7.5 Split=L

3 TEAM 10 POINT TEASER: ** L

SAINTS + 13
CHIEFS + 7
RAVENS - 1.5

SUN : 3-6 : (-8*)
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[This message has been edited by phoenix566 (edited 12-23-2001).]
 
J

JSMOOTH

They still suck
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Feb 2, 2001
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Alright....why is almost everyone on Cleveland?!

GB is my favorite play of the week. I usually like when I'm one of the few on the "other side" but this one's starting to spook me a little.

GB at home, vs a team that....
A. can't decide who to put where on the O line.
B. is starting a fumble-prone rookie RB
C. has the league's worst IR list
D. has a rookie head coach
E. is still thinking of the travesty of JAX &
F. is basically wriiten out of the playoffs.
 
P

phoenix566

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Jun 20, 2001
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JS,

we must see things a little differently.


I view the line move not as 'public' money, but as 'sharp' money, or at least 'sizable' money. A few thousand $100 bettors will not move a line like this one was moved.

My take on where the public is betting comes from a variety of sources:

1) BG concensus - GB is the biggest one (~85%)

2) Office pools I play in (63% on GB this week - and most at -8.5)

3) A couple of specific players in these pools (all on GB)

I cap my games before knowing these factors. I came up with a strong case for Cle covering this game based on their defense and GB's tendency to 'overlook' inferior opponents amongst other things. Finding out the above info then gets factored into the size of my play. All of these factors lining up causes me to like Cle a lot this week.

Of course I could be wrong and they could be right, but that's why they call it gambling.

Good luck to you this weekend.
 
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phoenix566

Cannabis Sativa
Forum Member
Jun 20, 2001
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inside your head
will use 1st post as summary:

Sat:

TITANS + 6
SEAHAWKS + 3.5

3 TEAM 10 POINT TEASER: ***

PATRIOTS + 7
SF/PHI UNDER 50.5
OAK/TEN OVER 34.5


Sun:

CLEVELAND + 7 ***
JAGUARS + 2.5

3 TEAM 10 POINT TEASER: **

SAINTS + 13
CHIEFS + 7
RAVENS - 1.5
 
P

phoenix566

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Jun 20, 2001
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could only get 2.5 for philly so gonna play + 125 on ML instead.

adding for Sunday:

WASHINGTON - 1 **

coulda played this one earlier in the week + 2.5. coulda shoulda woulda..... playing it now before it goes to -2.5, not that it should make a difference win or lose. The line movement is strange on this one similar to the GB/Cle game. 'Public' indicators are all over CHI and the public keeps getting to bet them at a better and better line.....hmmmmm. Gonna take my chances on a side I like which seems to also be backed by 'sharp' money.
 
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