Weekl 11 misc write-ups & crap

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NFL Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 11



Check out our NFL cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 11's action.

Philadelphia at Washington (-3.5, 43.5)

Philadelphia suffered its fifth straight defeat with Sunday's 38-23 loss to Dallas and now limps into Washington on Sunday without the services of QB Michael Vick (concussion), according to multiple reports. Nick Foles will get the nod after completing 22 of 32 pass attempts for 219 yards with a touchdown and an interception in relief of Vick last week. Redskins feature back Alfred Morris, who is seventh in the league with 793 rushing yards, will look to exploit an Eagles defense which is allowing 4.5 yards per carry during the team's losing skid. Philadelphia has played under the total in its last six road games.

Green Bay at Detroit (3.5, 51.5)

The Packers look for their fifth consecutive win when they visit Detroit on Sunday. Green Bay has owned Detroit, winning 12 of the last 13 meetings. Aaron Rodgers has caught fire, throwing for 15 touchdowns and just one interception over the last four games. But the Pack will be without team sack leader Clay Matthews, who has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last six games in Detroit.

Arizona at Atlanta (-9.5, 44)

Atlanta was the last NFL team clinging to perfection until a 31-27 loss at New Orleans last week while the Cardinals are coming off a much-needed bye week after losing five straight. Five of Arizona's nine games (three wins, two losses) have been decided by seven points or fewer, while the Falcons are 5-1 in such games. John Skelton is expected to make another start at QB for the Cards as Kevin Kolb will miss his fourth straight game with rib and shoulder injuries. The Arizona defense ranks second in the league against the pass, which should give the Cardinals a fighting chance against the Falcons' high-flying offense. These teams have played over the total in their last four meetings.

Tampa Bay at Carolina (1, 49)

The Buccaneers have won four of their past five games to surge back into the NFC playoff picture. Tampa Bay's unexpectedly explosive offense has put up 28 or more points in five straight games, thanks to the emergence of RB Doug Martin. The rookie is the only player in the NFL with over 800 rushing yards and 200 receiving yards. Tampa Bay's first four games were decided by a touchdown or less, but its past five have featured an average margin of 14.8 points. The Bucs have played over the total in their last six overall.

Cleveland at Dallas (-9.5, 43.5)

The Cowboys haven't registered back-to-back victories since a four-game winning streak in November 2011, but they have a golden chance against the Browns, who are trying to avoid a franchise-record 12th consecutive road loss. Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray (foot) is expected to miss his fifth straight game, putting Felix Jones in line for another start. Browns CB Joe Haden (oblique) missed practice Thursday and is a game-time decision for Sunday?s contest. Dallas is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games.

New York Jets at St. Louis (-3.5, 38.5)

New York is averaging fewer than 200 passing yards and has been held to 10 points or fewer in four of its six losses. Mark Sanchez has thrown nearly as many interceptions (nine) as touchdowns (10) and went just 9-of-22 for 124 yards and a pick in the 28-7 loss at Seattle last week. Steven Jackson, who rushed over 100 yards last week in San Francisco, could have a big day against a New York defense that ranks 30th against the run. These teams have played over the total in four of their last five meetings.

Jacksonville at Houston (-15, 40.5)

The Texans have rebounded from their only loss of the season with a vengeance, winning three straight while allowing just one touchdown and outscoring their opponents 77-28. Since defeating the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3, Jacksonville has given its fans little to cheer about, going 0-6 while scoring more than 15 points only once. Houston prevailed 27-7 in Week 2 against the Jags, who gained a franchise-low 117 yards in the loss. But surprisingly, Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.

Cincinnati at Kansas City (3.5, 43.5)

The quarterback carrousel continues for the Chiefs, who are forced to play Matt Cassel for a third straight game while Brady Quinn recovers from a concussion. The Chiefs can?t score regardless of who is under center (16.2 ppg ? 30th) and compound the issue by having the worst turnover differential in the league (-20). The only good news from Monday's loss to the Steelers was that Kansas City held a lead in regulation for the first time ? ending the league?s longest streak of futility since 1929. The Bengals are coming off a big victory against the defending Super Bowl-champion New York Giants last week but have a few injury issues on defense. Standout rookie free agent LB Vontaze Burfict, who is second on the team with 62 tackles, is questionable due to an elbow injury. CB Nate Clements (knee) and S Reggie Nelson (hamstring) are also questionable.

New Orleans at Oakland (4.5, 54.5)

The Saints? offense could be in for another big day Sunday when it visits Oakland. Drew Brees has owned the Raiders, passing for 1,248 yards, 13 TDs and no interceptions in his last six games against Oakland ? all wins. The Raiders? stop unit has surrendered 97 points over the last two weeks and is now allowing a league-worst 31.6 points per game. Running backs Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson are both dealing with high ankle sprains and are questionable. The Saints have won 13 straight November games and have covered in five of their last six overall.

San Diego at Denver (-8.5, 48.5)

The Broncos posted one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history when they rallied from a 24-point halftime deficit to defeat the Chargers 35-24 at San Diego earlier in the season. The Chargers turned the ball over six times in the game, five of those coming in the second half. With Peyton Manning back in Pro Bowl form, Denver has won four straight and could put a stranglehold on the division title if it makes it five in row on Sunday. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

Indianapolis at New England (-9.5, 54.5)

The Colts are 5-1 since head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia as his situation has galvanized the team. However, Indianapolis does have a few key injuries to deal with this week. Linebacker Dwight Freeney has been less than 100 percent for most of the season and the Colts placed CB Jerraud Powers on IR earlier in this week. While the Patriots continue to score with ease, leading the NFL in scoring average at 33.2 points, the defense ranks 29th against the pass and 25th overall. The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, while the Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (3.5, 40)

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out of Monday?s overtime win against Kansas City with a shoulder injury and has been ruled out against the Ravens. Veteran signal-caller Byron Leftwich, who hasn?t started a game since 2009, has been named Big Ben's replacement. While Roethlisberger?s absence will help the Ravens? defense, Joe Flacco will still have to go up against the best secondary in the league. Baltimore dominated the Raiders last Sunday in a 55-20 victory, scoring three touchdowns in the passing game, two in the running game and two on special teams. The under is 7-0 in Pittsburgh?s last seven home games.

Chicago at San Francisco (OFF)

Off-field news has dominated the headlines leading up to this Monday night clash. Quarterbacks Alex Smith and Jay Cutler were each knocked out of their respective games last week with concussions and on Thursday news broke that 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh was undergoing a minor procedure for an irregular heartbeat. Sportsbooks have been keeping their lines off the board, waiting for an update on the extent of the injuries to both starting QBs before making a decision. Cutler was officially ruled out of action by the team Friday afternoon, which means Jason Campbell will be under center. San Francisco and Chicago rank 1-2 in the league in fewest points allowed with 14.1 and 14.8, respectively. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.

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Week 11's Best Prop Plays


After a disappointing 1-3 showing last week, we're now 23-17 inside the Prop Shop this season. Time to get some of that back in Week 11. Here are four picks to click Sunday.

Most passing yards

Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) vs. Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions)

Even with a depleted receiving corps, we'll see Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense shine coming out of the bye week.

Of course, that's not a stretch when you consider how banged-up the Lions are in the secondary. Just last week, they allowed a struggling Christian Ponder to throw for 221 yards and two touchdowns in a double-digit loss to the Vikings.

Matt Stafford has been piling up the passing yardage, but the Lions will have to do something to keep the Packers offense off the field Sunday. That means a healthy dose of their ground game.

Take: Rodgers

Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) vs. Sam Bradford (St. Louis Rams)

Mark Sanchez continues to take a lot of heat from the growing number of Jets critics. He hasn't responded well to adversity in the past and he's admittedly in a tough spot with an extremely weak supporting cast around him. This doesn't look like an ideal bounce-back spot against an aggressive and underrated Rams defense.

Sam Bradford has thrown for over 200 yards in four straight games and has his favorite target back in the fold in Danny Amendola. There's little reason to expect a slowdown from Bradford against a struggling Jets secondary.

Take: Bradford

Most rushing yards

LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Alfred Morris (Washington Redskins)

With Michael Vick sidelined, you have to think that Andy Reid will finally give in and hand Shady McCoy a heavier workload. The explosive back is in excellent form, having gained 201 yards on only 35 carries over the last two weeks.

Redskins rookie RB Alfred Morris has been terrific at times this season but has sputtered lately, gaining only 135 yards on the ground over his last two games. The Eagles defense should come to play this week and I'm confident in their ability to bottle up Morris.

Take: McCoy

Most pass receptions

A.J. Green (Cincinnati Bengals) vs. Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City Chiefs)

The Chiefs offense is stuck in neutral and that has a lot to do with the ineffectiveness of QB Matt Cassel.

Dwayne Bowe has suffered as a result, catching four passes or less in three of his last four games. To make matters worse, he's been limited in practice due to a thigh injury, so I'm not counting on a breakout performance Sunday.

A.J. Green continues to be a steady contributor in the Bengals offense, hauling in at least seven catches in six of nine games this season. He has 27 catches in four road games and should continue his assault at Arrowhead Stadium this week.

Take: Green
 

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NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 11


Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 11:

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5, 44)

Cardinals? blitz-happy defense vs. Falcons? WR one-on-one dominance

Arizona defensive coordinator Ray Horton loves to unleash hell, blitzing nearly 40 percent of the time this season. It?s worked out pretty well for the Cardinals' stop unit, which ranks ninth in yards allowed. That chaotic brand of defense has forced nine interceptions, seven fumbles and sacked opposing QBs 27 times ? third most in the NFC.

Bringing the pressure may bite Arizona in the butt versus the Falcons, though. They don?t call Atlanta?s QB ?Matty Ice? because he sported a Rob Van Winkle flat-top as a kid. Ryan is has some of the best one-on-one options in the game in Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones, who is expected to play Sunday, as well as a deadly dump-off in RB Jacquizz Rodgers. Cue the Hall & Oates.

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5, 43.5)

Browns? takeaways vs. Cowboys? giveaways

After gift wrapping turnovers like a bakery at Christmas through the first eight weeks of the season, Dallas has toned down the giveaways in its last two games. The Cowboys, who lead the NFC with 13 interceptions and have fumbled away the ball six times, have not committed a turnover in the past two games. As long as Dallas isn?t choking itself out with these mistakes, it can be one of the better teams in the league.

However, the Cowboys might not want to relax against the Browns Sunday. Cleveland doesn?t do many things well, but it does have a nose for the football on defense, picking off 10 passes ? tied for second in the AFC ? and scooping up six fumbles this season. Corner Joe Haden is expected to play and will be assigned to Cowboys WR Dez Bryant. The Browns have five interceptions and two recovered fumbles (four forced) versus NFC East foes Philadelphia and New York already this season.

New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders (+4.5, 54.5)

Dennis Allen?s familiarity vs. Joe Vitt?s inexperience

Raiders head coach Dennis Allen knows a little something about the Saints, serving as the team?s defensive backs coach from 2008 to 2010, including the Super Bowl run in 2009, under now-suspended Sean Payton. New Orleans had nothing but great things to say about Allen this week, tabbing the Oakland coach as a ?sharp individual?.

If Allen is as sharp as they say ? and he is ? expect him to use all his inside info about the Saints? schemes to help his team. Vitt, New Orleans interim head coach, has his squad on a roll after handing Atlanta its first loss of the year last weekend. However, Vitt isn?t reinventing the wheel in New Orleans and is likely using similar signs and calls when it comes to Peyton?s game plans. Expect Allen to pick up on a few familiar things before this one is over.

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-4, 39)

Bears? returner Devin Hester vs. Niners? poor kick coverage

Who needs a starting QB when you have Devin Hester returning kicks? Granted, the Bears' dynamic return man hasn?t been leaving would-be tacklers in the dust, slowed by injury this season, but we?re talking about the greatest returner in NFL history. And, we?re talking about Monday Night Football. Hester shines in the national spotlight, saving his biggest runs for the biggest stage.

San Francisco is drum tight on defense, ranking among the Top 10 in all major statistical categories. The one spot in which the Niners leak is on kick and punt returns. The 49ers are allowing foes to average 28.8 yards per kickoff return (second worst in the NFL) and 9.6 yards per punt return including a TD in Week 1. On top of those dismal numbers, San Francisco was psyched out by two fake punts against St. Louis last week.

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NFL 36-32 Last 68 picks +$140
Game: Cleveland at Dallas (Sunday 11/18 1:00 PM Eastern)

Pick: Cleveland Browns+8 (-110)

The Dallas Cowboys have the talent to win this game by plenty. But, over the past two years that talent has failed to manifest itself on the field. As a result, the Cowboys often find themselves in a battle week in week out regardless of the opponent. Going back to last year in a full season of games, Dallas is just 7-9 in their last 16, winning just two of those by more than 7 points. So 14 times they would have failed against this number, which is very telling. The fact is, Dallas plays up or down to their competition. Over the past three seasons, the underdog in Cowboys games has gone 34-12 ATS. Cleveland doesn't win many games, but they often find themselves in them, falling just short. The Browns are 2-11 straight-up in their last 13 games, but they have lost just one of the 11 by more than 10 points. Looking at those numbers from each side, as much as they shouldn't be, the Browns are likely to be in this game down the stretch. Cleveland is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games
when taking 6 or more points, and are 6-0 ATS following an ATS loss. Dallas has not played well at home, going 2-9 ATS in their last nine home games. Dallas is also 1-10 ATS the past two seasons after a win.

Take the points and play on Cleveland.
 

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2012 O/U PLAY OF THE YEAR!!


triple-dime bet 423 IND / 424 NEP Over 53.5

2012 TOTAL PLAY OF THE YEAR

The computer outputs thousands of trends for us every week. Here one that we have never used, but it keeps winning. The league is now 18-0 OU in November the week after beating the Jaguars.

Indianapolis qualifies for this unusual system. Of course, this is not the reason we have this one going over.

Andrew Luck is not just a good quarterback, he is a great leader as well. It is clear that the Colts have confidence in him and will listen attentively when he speaks. He commands respect from his teammates and here is a great opportunity to get it from the rest of the league.

The Patriots have won with offense this season. They are 4-0 straight up when they score more than thirty points and we think they?ll easily get to this number here.

New England is 13-0 OU the week after a win in which they allowed more than 295 yards passing, including 3-0 OU this season.

Also, the Pats are 16-0 OU off a game in which they scored 35-plus points and allowed at least 20 points.

Finally, the Patriots are playing their second straight home game and play on the road vs divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks. This has been a HUGE over spot, as TD-plus home favorites in November are 30-0 OU when they play on the road in each of their next two games and they are facing a team that has attempted at least 30.5 passes per game season-to-date.

The reasoning for this one seems straightforward. November is when the contenders emerge. By December, many of the races are all but over. When a team is a big home favorite, they don?t need to have both the offense and the defense playing at 110%. They have the luxury of putting the onus of the victory on the offense and saving the defense for the upcoming road games. So, their goal is to outscore rather than out defend their opponent. The Ravens were in just this spot last week when they put up 55 on the Raiders, allowing their defense to ?go through the motions? and save their fierce intensity level for their upcoming road games. When they get an opponent that passes the ball frequently, these games go flying over the posted number ? thirty straight since Thanksgiving 2003.

If Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills put up 31 points in New England, the Andrew Luck and the Colts should be good for at least this amount. The weather looks perfect for football in Foxboro on Sunday. Take these two OVER.



NEW ENGLAND 41 Indianapolis 38
 

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Bengals@Chiefs

The Bengals are 11-0 ATS (+8.0 ppg) since 1995 after a game in which they were up by double-digits after the first quarter as a dog.

Jets@Rams

The Jets are 10-0 ATS (+16.4 ppg) since December 10th, 1997 when they are off a double-digit ATS loss in a game that had a total of less than 40.

The Rams are 11-0 ATS (+10.6 ppg) since December 2001 at home off a game in which they covered by 10+ points.

Colts@Patriots

The Patriots are 0-9 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since 2002 when they are off an ATS loss in which they punted fewer than three times.


Buccaneers@Panthers

The Buccaneers are 0-11 (-14.1 ppg) since December 2008 when facing a team that has allowed less than ten yards per completion season-to-date and they are not a TD-plus favorite.

The Buccaneers are 0-9 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since 2001 as a favorite vs a team that has forced fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.

The Panthers are 0-12 ATS (-14.5 ppg) since 2003 during the regular season after week three when hosting a team that has allowed fewer than 3.75 yards per carry season to date.

Jaguars@Texans

The Jaguars are 10-0 ATS (+9.6 ppg) in franchise history as a road dog when seeking same-season revenge for a home loss.

The Jaguars are 10-0 ATS (+12.4 ppg) since November 2003 vs a divisional opponent when they face another divisional opponent next week.

The Jaguars are 8-0 ATS (+5.1 ppg) in franchise history as a dog of more than a TD when they are off a loss in which they suffered at least four sacks.

The Jaguars are 0-10 ATS (-12.0 ppg) since 2008 when they are off an ATS loss vs a divisional opponent.

Saints@Raiders

The Raiders are 11-0 ATS (+7.2 ppg) since Christmas of 2004 after a game in which they had at least 290 yards passing.

The Raiders are 9-0 ATS (+16.5 ppg) since October 18, 2009 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they suffered a turnover margin of at least plus-two

Chargers@Broncos

The Broncos are 8-0 ATS (+13.2 ppg) since 2009 vs a team with fewer wins on the season when they won last week.

Ravens@Steelers

The Ravens are 13-0 (+12.1 ppg) since December 1996 when they are off a game in which they passed for 100+ more yards than their season-to-date average.

Bears@Fortyniners

The Bears are 9-0 ATS (+11.9 ppg) since 2003 as a dog the week after a loss in which they held their opponent to a third-down conversion rate of less than 33%.

The 49ers are 0-8 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since November 2002 as a favorite off a game in which they got at least ten first downs via the rush.

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Accuscore
Analyst: 8-2-1 Last Month - Week 11 Picks

Green Bay -3.5 at Detroit Lions
The Packers win this game 65% of the time and by double digits 38% of the time. The Lions have played poorly the past couple seasons against truly quality opponents, and have really struggled this season. Opposing quarterbacks against Detroit are having field days completing about two-thirds of their passes and nearly a 3-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Lions just aren?t a good team this season. It might be time to stop waiting for that to happen.

Cleveland Browns +9.5 at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys finally showed some life last week scoring 38 points in a big win over the Eagles, so why am I picking against them this weekend? Well for one, it was the Eagles who are the Titanic of this NFL season. Second, Dallas needed a punt return and interception return for scores in the fourth quarter to pull away late. The Browns are coming off a bye week, and should be healthy and rested for this game. They do have Trent Richardson in order to churn some rushing yards, and with the way Dallas has struggled with injuries to their own running backs, Cleveland could shorten the game by maintaining possession even without scoring too many points. AccuScore projects the Browns to cover 55 percent of the time.

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? Play Tampa Bay -1.5 over Carolina (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---30% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 1:00 PM EST

Tampa Bay has won and covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 games and
they have also covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 road games when
the total posted is between 45.5 and 49 points. Tampa Bay has covered
the spread in 5 of the last 6 games coming off an OVER the total and
they are averaging over 30 points a game on offense in road games this
season.

? Play New Orleans -4.5 over Oakland (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---25% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 4:00 PM EST

New Orleans has covered the spread in 10 consecutive games when
playing in the 2nd half of the season and they have also covered the
spread in 9 of the last 11 games coming off a home win. New Orleans
has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 overall games and they are
averaging over 27 points a game on offense this season.

? Play Baltimore -3.5 over Pittsburgh (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---25% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 8:30 PM EST

Baltimore has won 19 of the last 25 games when the total posted is
between 35.5 and 42 points and they have also won 13 of the last 16
games vs. division opponents. Baltimore has won 17 of the last 22
games coming off an OVER the total and they have also won 23 of the
last 26 games after having won two of the last three games.

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Indianapolis Colts +9.5

The books have set this number above a touchdown because they realize that not too many bettors believe that the Colts are for real. However, Indianapolis just keeps proving its doubters wrong and I believe they will once again this weekend. Plus, they are playing for a head coach that has cancer, so you know this team is going to leave everything they have on the field each Sunday.

Indianapolis went into New England last year as a 20-point underdog and nearly pulled off the upset, falling by a final of 24-31. The Colts didn?t have Andrew Luck last year, and now they do. It certainly appears that he is going to be the next Peyton Manning with what he?s done so far in his rookie season. The Colts rank 8th in the league in passing offense at 277.9 yards/game.

When you look at the numbers, it?s hard to argue against the Colts being a legitimate 6-3 team. They rank 5th in the league in total offense at 387.3 yards per game, and a respectable 18th in total defense at 350.6 yards per game. They are outgaining opponents by an average of 36.7 yards/game, which is the sign of a quality squad.

The Patriots haven?t really been that dominant at home this season. They have lost to the Arizona Cardinals, and all three of their wins came by 10 points or fewer, including two by 6 points or less to the Jets and Bills. If the Cardinals, Jets and Bills took the Patriots down to the wire at Gillette Stadium, the Colts should be able to as well.

The Colts are 13-3 ATS vs. awful passing defenses ? allowing 260 or more passing yards/game since 1992. New England ranks 29th in the league against the pass at 285.3 yards/game allowed. Indianapolis is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. a team with a winning record. The underdog is 13-3-2 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Bet the Colts Sunday.

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Houston Texans -14.5

The Texans have had the exact opposite start to the season than the Jaguars. They lead the AFC with an overall record of 8-1 and come into this game having won three straight since that embarrassing loss to the Packers back in Week 6. Laying a big number with the Texans hasn?t been much of a problem so far this season. Houston has been favored by double-digits three times and they have won and covered in each of those games. It?s a big reason why the Texans are a very profitable 7-2 ATS this season.

Even if the offense doesn?t show up to play in this game, there is good possibility the defense will be able to keep this Jaguars offense in check. Jacksonville is hands down the worst offensive team in the NFL. They rank 31st in passing offense at 184.8 ypg and 30th in rushing offense at 78.8 ypg. To no surprise, they are averaging a league-worst 14.1 ppg. The other huge factor is the Texans won?t have to worry about Maurice Jones-Drew, who scored the only offensive touchdown for the Jaguars back in the first matchup.

The Texans have certainly not let up against their division rivals lately. Houston is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games vs division opponents over the last two seasons and are an amazing 12-3 ATS over their last 15 games following a win. BET THE TEXANS!


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San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
over 48.5

Strong NFL system here and both of these teams are capable of scoring quickly and both have pass oriented offenses. 5 of the last 6 games between these two teams have gone over the posted total and I look for another shoot-out Sunday afternoon. The Over/Under is 100% perfect 5-0 in the Broncos last 5 games after they have held their opponents to less than 15 points in their previous game. The O/U is 7-1 for the Broncos in their last 8 games against an AFC opponent and both of these offenses are starting to get going at this point in the season. Take the Chargers/Broncos Game Total Over the posted number of 48.5.
 

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Indianapolis (6-3) comes off a solid 27-10 victory over Jacksonville on Thursday Night Football and head to New England (6-3) on a 4-game winning streak. While New England is leading the AFC East, the Patriots have recently won some close games due to their struggling defense, which has allowed 24 points or more in 5 of their last 7 games. The Pats come off a 37-31 victory over Buffalo, but that 6-point win dropped them to 2-13 ATS as favorites of 11 points or more, including 0-3 ATS as double-digit favorites this season. Colts are 4-0 ATS during their last 4 trips to New England building confidence with every victory behind QB Luck. With both teams owning 6-3 records, must back this dog getting nearly double-digits, as these teams are closer than the Oddsmakers would have you think.

7* Play On Indianapolis



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Washington Redskins -3.5

The Eagles are really struggling. They have lost five in a row by an average of 9.6 points. Their last three losses have come by 13 points or more. They are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games and 1-7-1 against the spread on the season.

Some teams are great investments in bounce back spots, but Philadelphia isn?t one of them. The Eagles, who lost 38-23 to the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday, are 5-15-1 against the spread in their last 21 games following a loss and 0-4 against the spread in their last four games following a loss of more than 14 points.

The Eagles have been a turnover waiting to happen this season. They have committed 21 turnovers while forcing just 10. The Redskins, on the other hand, have committed just nine while forcing 16. The team that wins the turnover battle often wins the game.

Washington is one of the better offensive teams in the NFL. It ranks seventh in total offense with 381.8 yards per game and 11th in scoring with 25.1 points per game. It should find success against a Philadelphia defense that has given up 30.5 points and 376.5 yards over its last four games.

It should also be mentioned that the Redskins are on a 7-2 against the spread run versus NFC East foes. Lay the points.

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