Wegmans Rochester LPGA

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Lorena Ochoa to win 20/1 e.w. @ William Hill and SIA
Will persevere with Ochoa at these prices. It is only a month since she posted successive top-3 finishes against much stronger fields, so she is certainly capable of breaking her duck this week.

Grace Park to win 25/1 e.w. @ William Hill and SIA
Withdrew after an opening 82 on her only previous appearance in this event (2000), but won the Michelob Light Open last month and recorded her second runners-up post of the season at the McDonald's LPGA Championship when she lost in a playoff to Annika Sorenstam. She followed that with 11th place last week and so long as fatigue is not a factor, she looks to be playing well enough to make a much bigger impact this year.

Jenny Rosales to finish in the top-four 12.5/1 @ Centrebet
Not a prolific high-finisher, but she did finish 2nd last week via the 4-way playoff and that was her fourth top-10 finish in her last nine events. She also finished 11th two weeks ago in the McDonald's LPGA Championship, so she has certainly in a rich vein of form. She finished 5th last year, so she should be confident of continuing these impressive finishes.

Will post matchup/18-hole plays early Thursday morning ... still waiting for Five Dimes lines and not much else really stands out at the moment.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

Danielle Ammaccapane to beat Kelly Robbins -118 @ Expekt
It is almost 12 months since Robbins last secured a top-10 finish on the LPGA Tour and so it is no surprise that Ammaccapane holds a 6-1-0 h2h lead over her for the last three months. He finished ahead of her last year and is expected to the same again this week.

Natalie Gulbis to beat Beth Bauer -111 @ Expekt (-115 @ Five Dimes)
Bauer and Delasin have become fairly common opponents in these matchups. She did finish 5th last week, but her previous best on the LPGA Tour this season had been 30th and that was her season-opening event. She had missed six of eight cuts before last week. Easy to side with a player who has finished in the top-25 in each of her last six LPGA Tour events.

Jenny Rosales to beat Dorothy Delasin -115 @ Five Dimes
Delasin is another who has struggled with her form and has a best-finish of 8th from 12 starts this year. She has finished ahead of Rosales only once in their last seven common events, so every reason to side with the outright selection again.

 

[Clive]

Going with Grace Park too at 25/1...strange price esp given that as far as I can make out Rosie Jones does not play.

Also

Beth Daniel 40/1...let me down last week but she's been forgiven!

Meg Mallon 25/1...past winner

and a couple of long ones!

Becky Morgan 125/1...couldn't resist that price!

Jenny Lidback 200/1...only seems to play well here, and finished 17th last week...there are worse 200/1 shots

 

[Stanley]

2nd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Grace Park to beat Karrie Webb +102 @ Five Dimes [4.5 units]
Danielle Ammaccapane to beat Kelly Robbins -105 @ Five Dimes

 

[Stanley]

2nd round update: 1-1-0; +3.02 units

Park/Webb WON by 3
Ammaccapane/Robbins LOST by 2

Mid-point update:

Ammaccapane/Robbins Trails by 1
Gulbis/Bauer All Square
Rosales/Delasin Leads by 1

Ochoa 11th
Park 5th
Rosales 42nd

Glad to get a profit on the day's 18-hole plays as the rest is very close at the cut. No more than a shot separates the matchups and two of three outrights have a chance of a return. Rosales had been 3rd after the 1st round, but had a very difficult 2nd round.

3rd round plays (1.5 units):

Danielle Ammaccapane to beat Suzann Pettersen -120 @ Five Dimes
Natalie Gulbis to beat Beth Bauer -113 @ Five Dimes

 

[Stanley]

3rd round update: 0-1-1; -1.80 units

Ammaccapane/Pettersen LOST by 3
Gulbis/Bauer TIED (Push)

4th round play (1.5 units):

Se Ri Pak to beat Grace Park -135 @ Five Dimes

 

[Stanley]

4th round update: 0-1-0; -2.03 units

Pak/Park LOST by 2

Final update:

Matchups: 1-1-1; -0.29 units

Ammaccapane/Robbins WON by 7
Gulbis/Bauer TIED (Dead heat)
Rosales/Delasin LOST by 7

18-holes: 1-3-1; -0.81 units

Outrights: 2-1; +5.44 units

Ochoa 2nd
Park 3rd
Rosales 62nd

No complaints over losing the final round hedge play, Park would have need to beat Pak on the day to have any chance of winning and she more than covered the outlay with a place win. Ochoa finished very strongly, but not as impressive as Teske who won in back-to-back weeks. Ochoa still searches for her maiden win and her odds will probably now be short to continue riding that train.

LPGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 23-16; +12.24 units
18-holes: 25-22; +5.05 units
Outrights: 6-30; -7.46 units